Watched the Rams game last night....

[billsdog]

We could have had a star studded cast at WR this season if we kept the players we drafted.

 

You can not build a perennial winning franchise soley from the draft. If that is your team building strategy as an NFL GM then you MUST retain the good players that were drafted. Not send them packing for more draft picks. Look at the Patriots.

[GunnerBill]

 

However, the clear star of this receiving corps was Cooper Kupp from Eastern Washington. Kid was open and catching everything for the first half. Made the QB Jared Goff look really good. I think Goff was 16-20. I know it's preseason, but last year Goff couldn't hit 16 of 20 in practice with no defense on the field.

 

 

I said in another thread that I had a friend there on Saturday night and he was raving about Goff in his messages Sunday morning. I will repeat what my film review of Goff and Wentz rookie years showed - more good with Goff than expected; more bad with Wentz than expected. Wentz's tape was still overall a little better but the gap was not as big as some made it out to be. I wouldn't be shocked if Goff looked like a capable game manager this season.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

The only problem with that was that the kid that went to Carolina had played with EJ at FSU so wouldn't you think that instead of reaching for Sammy they would have grabbed some one like Kevin Benjamin that EJ had familiarity with ??

 

I thought that would be the common sense thing to do if you want him to excel !!

There was no reaching for Watkins. That's been my point. He was the unquestioned top receiver and the top offensive player in the draft. They paid a hefty price but the player wasn't a reach at all. In fact many were surprised that he was still on the board at 4. A lot of people had him to the Rams at 2.

[JohnC]

 

I said in another thread that I had a friend there on Saturday night and he was raving about Goff in his messages Sunday morning. I will repeat what my film review of Goff and Wentz rookie years showed - more good with Goff than expected; more bad with Wentz than expected. Wentz's tape was still overall a little better but the gap was not as big as some made it out to be. I wouldn't be shocked if Goff looked like a capable game manager this season.

Too many people make an instant analysis on rookie qbs. It takes time to develop and adapt to the pro game. The top drafted qbs usually go to bad teams. That has to factor in with the rate of their development. When the Rams drafted Goff their intention was to mostly sit him out his rookie year and groom him in a less pressurized manner. They felt that they were forced to play him last year because their team was out of the running and they felt the need to pacify an agitated fan base. It's not surprising that he struggled. Goff is going to improve this year but next year he is more likely to make a quantum leap forward.

 

The Bills strategy of waiting for the 2018 season when they believed there were better qb prospects is not a guarantee. There is a good chance that the qbs available in the draft won't be better than the prospects available in the last draft, Mahomes and Watkins. That's an argument for getting your qb prospect in your pipeline sooner rather than later so the development process can be started.

 

The Bills have not had a legitimate franchise qb for a quarter century, since the retirement of Kelly. Their passivity on addressing that position is not only perplexing but simply weird. It makes no sense. Their philosophy is when you got nothing just keep waiting and watch the others pass you by. It makes no sense.

[JohnC]

Right but when discussing if a guy was a reasonable pick it helps to understand his expected role, value, and likewise that of the people selected around him.

 

We can all say the food has been mediocre but if we don't understand the ingredients it's not much fun to talk to each other in the kitchen, right?

When discussing the Bills it is futile to talk about player roles and values because there has been so much tumult within the organization. The almost annual change in schemes, coaches and philosophy is like trying to thread a needle while being in a small boat in the ocean while being battered by a hurricane.

 

Going back to the Ragland discussion his selection was a reasonable pick for a Rex defense. It is apparently a mismatch for the MdDermott defense. The Watkins selection from a talent standpoint was reasonable. The circumstance that he was drafted into made his pick very questionable because of the qb situation at the time and even more ridiculous the qb situation that continued to fester after his selection.

 

The issue I brought up in the prior post had to do with the instability within the organization that made the evaluation of players for this tumultuous organization so much more complicated and difficult.

[JohnC]

There was no reaching for Watkins. That's been my point. He was the unquestioned top receiver and the top offensive player in the draft. They paid a hefty price but the player wasn't a reach at all. In fact many were surprised that he was still on the board at 4. A lot of people had him to the Rams at 2.

Few people are denying the talent level of Watkins. That isn't the issue that people are questioning. The real issue is his value relative to price. The Bills gave up a first round pick for a player whose talents could never be maximized because of the qb situation he was going to be subjected. What made his value diminish even more is that after acquiring this scintillating talent the qb position still wasn't upgraded to take advantage of his impressive skills. That's the point that you continue to turn a blind eye to.

 

Teams frequently trade down in draft giving up the opportunity to select higher rated talent in order to get more lesser talents. That isn't a bad strategy for a team that is very thin, such as the Bills. It makes more sense for a team like Atlanta with a high caliber qb such as Mat Ryan to give up a lot to draft a Julio Jones. It makes less sense for the Bills to take the same approach to select Watkins when there was, and still is, such a deficit at qb. That's the point many people are making in this discussion.

 

When all is said and done look at the end result on this Watkins topic? He's gone! A little more forethought by this chaotic organization could have avoided this situation.

[dave mcbride]

Where would we be without hindsight? I'm fine with people criticizing the trade. A lot of people questioned it (and a lot of people loved it).

To try to act like the player wasn't an elite prospect is beyond ridiculous. It doesn't always work out but the odds of Sammy being a star were better than any player in that draft. Clowney's motor was questioned, Mack's competition was questioned, Robinson didn't have production, Mathews lacked athleticism and there were questions with Evans hands and if he made Johnny or visa versa. Going into the 2014 draft that was the landscape.

I wish as a fan base we knew more about college football. I've said it before but we probably watch and follow college football less than any other fan base in the league. In part because we don't have a team and a lot of people weren't raised on it. In turn, we know less about prospects and players coming in than pretty much any other NFL fan base. Our knowledge is so weak that we just don't know why certain guys are looked at as "can't miss." We don't remember what Watkins did to OSU in the Orange Bowl or what Dareus did to Texas in the National Championship. We don't realize that Zay Jones has caught A LOT more balls than anyone ever. We just don't know enough about the players to understand the strengths and weaknesses.

This. Great post.

[NoSaint]

When discussing the Bills it is futile to talk about player roles and values because there has been so much tumult within the organization. The almost annual change in schemes, coaches and philosophy is like trying to thread a needle while being in a small boat in the ocean while being battered by a hurricane.

 

Going back to the Ragland discussion his selection was a reasonable pick for a Rex defense. It is apparently a mismatch for the MdDermott defense. The Watkins selection from a talent standpoint was reasonable. The circumstance that he was drafted into made his pick very questionable because of the qb situation at the time and even more ridiculous the qb situation that continued to fester after his selection.

 

The issue I brought up in the prior post had to do with the instability within the organization that made the evaluation of players for this tumultuous organization so much more complicated and difficult.

I'll agree there and often bring it up in Whaley talks. People call him a scout instead of team builder but how is he supposed to get any synergy between offseason plans when he can't even select a coach.

 

There's a lot of disfunction to discuss.... but I find talking about building through the draft more enjoyable with people that know college football

[dave mcbride]

This is a weird post.

No it's not. I suggest actually engaging with it rather than simply calling it "weird."

Edited August 21, 2017 by dave mcbride

[Bill from NYC]

I don't disagree that the EJ pick was a Nix decision. But that doesn't change the fact that Whaley expended valuable resources for a top shelf receiver when he didn't have the caliber of qb in place to utilize the receiver's talents. Even after the selection it should have been a priority to address the most important priority, the qb position. That failure was the biggest reason why he wasn't as successful as he should have been, and why he lost his job.

 

I have never been a big basher of Whaley. However, he didn't do what he needed to do to upgrade that position in order to have a reasonable chance to seriously compete. The stark ugly truth for this middling franchise is that it hasn't had a legitimate franchise qb for a quarter of a century, since the retirement of Kelly. That is a disgrace and an embarrassment!

I know. It would seem almost as dumb as drafting a sub-par running back in the top 10 without much blocking. :)

[dave mcbride]

I don't disagree that the EJ pick was a Nix decision. But that doesn't change the fact that Whaley expended valuable resources for a top shelf receiver when he didn't have the caliber of qb in place to utilize the receiver's talents. Even after the selection it should have been a priority to address the most important priority, the qb position. That failure was the biggest reason why he wasn't as successful as he should have been, and why he lost his job.

 

I have never been a big basher of Whaley. However, he didn't do what he needed to do to upgrade that position in order to have a reasonable chance to seriously compete. The stark ugly truth for this middling franchise is that it hasn't had a legitimate franchise qb for a quarter of a century, since the retirement of Kelly. That is a disgrace and an embarrassment!

This is inaccurate. Yes, Nix made the pick, but it was Whaley who went to all of the pro days and private workouts, and he was also the anonymous Bills organization member saying how great Manuel was in a windy rainstorm in Florida and how bad Barkley was on his pro day in LA. Edited August 21, 2017 by dave mcbride

[JohnC]

I'll agree there and often bring it up in Whaley talks. People call him a scout instead of team builder but how is he supposed to get any synergy between offseason plans when he can't even select a coach.

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There's a lot of disfunction to discuss.... but I find talking about building through the draft more enjoyable with people that know college football

I agree with you that Whaley was placed in an untenable situation with not being allowed to work with his own selected head coaches. As much criticism that Whaley has received no one can accuse him of not accommodating the head coaches with the players they wanted. Maybe to a fault he accommodated Rex but that was a problem that was foisted on him by the clueless owners.

 

The killer criticism that he richly deserves and that ultimately sabotaged him was his inability to adequately address the qb position. His lack of aggressiveness on that issue, at least for me, is a head scratcher. Doug Marrone is not a likeable person but he was right in not tolerating the qb situation he was handed with EJ being the starter.

 

I also do think that criticism is warranted that Doug over-estimated his roster and believed that the team was knocking on the playoff door.That was a miscalculation that resulted in him adding pieces and expending resources (Watkins deal) to put this team over the playoff hump when it still was not close to where it needed to be.

 

What's infuriating about the Whaley departure is that he finally was willing to draft a qb in this draft with a first round pick. It was rumored that it was going to be Mahomes, but it also could have been Watkins. It was too late because he lost his authority to the wrestling coach. In my mind Whaley was right. That's not only very frustrating but so Buffalo Billzy!

[SoTier]

 

That's a ridiculous assessment of the game. They had Sammy in single coverage, and he wasn't open. Goff had to go to secondary and tertiary targets. Giving Watkins credit for the success of Goff and Kupp is unfair to both those guys.

 

Yes, Sammy is a superior athlete, but he isn't the reason those guys looked good. They beat Dallas last week, so they are coming along.

 

The presence of any game changing player is going create opportunities for other players, and that's not limited to the offense, because the opposition players are going to always be aware of that ability and may alter their own play just a bit, creating an edge for the unit with the game changer.

 

Obviously, getting such a tiny edge has never mattered to the Bills because they win so easily ... a JAG DB and a second round pick are soooo much more valuable than a game changing WR. //sarcasm off

[JohnC]

This is inaccurate. Yes, Nix made the pick, but it was Whaley who went to all of the pro days and private workouts, and he was also the anonymous Bills organization member saying how great Manuel was in a windy rainstorm in Florida and how bad Barkley was on his pro day in LA.

Whaley ranked the qbs in that draft class. But given that it doesn't mean that he ranked EJ as a first round value. When all is said and done what does it matter regarding who is mostly to blame for the selection? Whaley should have realized very soon that EJ was not a franchise qb and had his antenna up for a better option. He didn't. He lost his job. The fault is his.

I know. It would seem almost as dumb as drafting a sub-par running back in the top 10 without much blocking. :)

Bill, The problem is much more than about individual picks as it is about coherency and strategic planning. There was too much tactical thinking and not enough strategic thinking when building the roster.

 

Think about this: The Bills have not had a legitimate franchise qb for a quarter century, since the retirement of Kelly. How does that happen in a sport in which everyone acknowledges the basic fact that you have to have a functional qb to reasonably compete? It makes absolutely no sense! How can anyone take this franchise seriously when the new owners with great fanfare hire a well-known fraud such as Rex and then be surprised at the disaster he left in such a short period of time? It never ends.

[GG]

Few people are denying the talent level of Watkins. That isn't the issue that people are questioning. The real issue is his value relative to price. The Bills gave up a first round pick for a player whose talents could never be maximized because of the qb situation he was going to be subjected. What made his value diminish even more is that after acquiring this scintillating talent the qb position still wasn't upgraded to take advantage of his impressive skills. That's the point that you continue to turn a blind eye to.

 

Teams frequently trade down in draft giving up the opportunity to select higher rated talent in order to get more lesser talents. That isn't a bad strategy for a team that is very thin, such as the Bills. It makes more sense for a team like Atlanta with a high caliber qb such as Mat Ryan to give up a lot to draft a Julio Jones. It makes less sense for the Bills to take the same approach to select Watkins when there was, and still is, such a deficit at qb. That's the point many people are making in this discussion.

 

When all is said and done look at the end result on this Watkins topic? He's gone! A little more forethought by this chaotic organization could have avoided this situation.

 

Agree 100%, and would like to add that my biggest concern about relative value is using a lot of draft equity to draft the best player at a position that had the biggest depth in a long time? Sammy was clearly at the top, but was he a 1st & 4th better than Evans or OBJ?

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Agree 100%, and would like to add that my biggest concern about relative value is using a lot of draft equity to draft the best player at a position that had the biggest depth in a long time? Sammy was clearly at the top, but was he a 1st & 4th better than Evans or OBJ?

Evans really isn't a part of this as he would have cost a hefty price to move up for. OBJ certainly applies though.

[JohnC]

 

Agree 100%, and would like to add that my biggest concern about relative value is using a lot of draft equity to draft the best player at a position that had the biggest depth in a long time? Sammy was clearly at the top, but was he a 1st & 4th better than Evans or OBJ?

You make an excellent point about considering the depth of the draft at particular positions when making a draft decisions. Whaley was reasonable when selecting talent but lacked a vision in putting together a roster. He also had a tendency to over-rate his roster which certainly influenced how he added talent. Instead of putting so much emphasis on getting over the playoff barrier he should have been more focused on building a more well rounded roster. I don't want to belabor the point but acquiring a credible qb during his tenure would have masked much of the deficiencies that existed on the roster. He recognized the obvious too late in his tenure. And he paid the price by losing his job.

 

With respect to the Evans and OBJ point that you made what does it matter if you have a high end receiver talent, no matter who it is, if the qb you have is sub par? If you don't have A it doesn't matter who you have at B. The talent won't come to fruition in either case. Sequencing is important especially at that dependent receiver position.

Edited August 21, 2017 by JohnC

[GG]

Evans really isn't a part of this as he would have cost a hefty price to move up for. OBJ certainly applies though.

 

It would have been a bit lower than a 1st & 4th, but yes still cost a bunch.

 

You make an excellent point about considering the depth of the draft at particular positions when making a draft decisions. Whaley was reasonable when selecting talent but lacked a vision in putting together a roster. He also had a tendency to over-rate his roster which certainly influenced how he added talent. Instead of putting so much emphasis on getting over the playoff barrier he should have been more focused on building a more well rounded roster. I don't want to belabor the point but acquiring a credible qb during his tenure would have masked much of the deficiencies that existed on the roster. He recognized the obvious too late in his tenure. And he paid the price by losing his job.

 

With respect to the Evans and OBJ point that you made what does it matter if you have a high end receiver talent, no matter who it is, if the qb you have is sub par? If you don't have A it doesn't matter who you have at [/b]B[/b]. The talent won't come to fruition in either case. Sequencing is important especially at that dependent receiver position.

 

The rationale also applies to trading up for any position where there's ample supply.

 

I'm not a big fan of trading up in general, unless it's for a generational talent in a year where the drop off after that player is huge. That wasn't the case for WRs in 2014.

 

I also hate trade ups after the 1st round, because it rarely works for the team moving up, and the Bills have had a notoriously awful history in that regard. I'm hoping that Zay bucks the trend, while Dawkins appears to have been a reach at a high cost.

[Tenhigh]

Who was a better QB option in that draft?

[JohnC]

Who was a better QB option in that draft?

The problem is not who is the better qb but where do draft the qb. If a fourth round talent is taken in the first round that is a bad pick, no matter what the position is. The qbs in that mediocre draft class were not first round talent.. Buffalo was the foolish organization that reached while the other qbs were taken in the range where they were ranked from a talent standpoint.