Trade Tyrod and Shady before the season starts

[dave mcbride]

If they don't declare it's all of the more reason to be worse. SF and the Jets are taking QB. The Dolphins, Jags, Cardinals, Browns and others may be thinking QB. If you end up with the 8th pick and Darnold and/or Rosen stay in school what's the QB plan? Even if they come out, what's the plan? Pay a ridiculous price to try to get ahead of those teams (if someone will bite)? Why not bottom out?

 

If they really believed that they were competing they wouldn't have made those moves. They had 2 options and it was tank and load up on assets or compete for a playoff spot. A little bit of both doesn't work. We can't end up in a game of QB musical chairs in the 2018 draft with no seat.

Moreover, if teams really believe in a qb and have a chance to take him, they aren't going to trade away the chance to take him for a boatload of picks. If the Jets really love, say, Darnold and have the ability to draft him, they wouldn't trade that chance away for a mountain of picks. Nor should they. Just look at the haul the Colts got for trading away Elway's rights. Does anyone think they made the right trade?

[Big C]

I think Mario Williams in 2014 was better. Takeo Spikes' 2003 season was better too. I also think it's arguable that Dareus' 2014 season was better than McCoy's 2016 season. Let's not forget that the Bills D in 2003 was first overall in defensive DVOA and second overall in 2014.

 

Using Pro-football-reference's overall-value AV measure, here's where things stand:

 

Mario Williams in 2014: 18

Spikes in 2004: 17

Dareus in 2014: 17

McCoy in 2016: 13

 

18 is *really* high.

 

I hear you. I did say "probably the best" because I knew there were some other options. I do feel he is the best offensive player and it looks like your counterpoints still support that. He is a bonafide superstar, as Mario was a few years back. I would have been against trading him in 2015 if we were having the same discussion.

[dave mcbride]

I don't think that there's any doubt that they value Shady. He's their best player. It all comes down to "what's the goal in 2017?" If it was to compete they shouldn't have made the other deals. The Bills didn't even deny that they are worse in 2017 because of them. If we are trying to get to the top of the draft to secure a QB Shady and Tyrod should be dealt. Don't try to win 6 games that's the worst case scenario. If you could get another top 60 pick and a starting caliber young receiver on a rookie deal I'd pull the trigger. They'd have Zay and Godwin to build with the QB that they take in 2018. That's a good place to start. If they are bad enough to pick a QB without using their draft capital to move up maybe they can even add a back like Guice or by some miracle Barkley. You'd have your QB, starting receivers & RB all in the same age bracket. Winning 4 games is better than 6. The Bills need to win 10 or more or less than 5.

I know that what I'm about to say is debatable, but I really think that Dareus is their best player in terms of talent and potential.

 

I hear you. I did say "probably the best" because I knew there were some other options. I do feel he is the best offensive player and it looks like your counterpoints still support that. He is a bonafide superstar, as Mario was a few years back. I would have been against trading him in 2015 if we were having the same discussion.

Shady is a great player, no doubt.

Edited August 22, 2017 by dave mcbride

[YoloinOhio]

I'm really hoping they do but I can just picture us winning enough games to be picking too far out for a top QB then hearing about how they didn't have another QB graded high enough but don't worry because the CB is going to be a real impact player.

9th (in your scenario) isn't too far out to begin with given your scenario, and the number of QBs expected to come out, plus they have another 1st to move up if needed. I can't really picture your scenario at all - they just took a CB this year and it's a regime that everyone says doesn't value them...

[Big C]

If they don't declare it's all of the more reason to be worse. SF and the Jets are taking QB. The Dolphins, Jags, Cardinals, Browns and others may be thinking QB. If you end up with the 8th pick and Darnold and/or Rosen stay in school what's the QB plan? Even if they come out, what's the plan? Pay a ridiculous price to try to get ahead of those teams (if someone will bite)? Why not bottom out?

 

If they really believed that they were competing they wouldn't have made those moves. They had 2 options and it was tank and load up on assets or compete for a playoff spot. A little bit of both doesn't work. We can't end up in a game of QB musical chairs in the 2018 draft with no seat.

 

I get what you mean, but I think with Sammy the team didn't feel that they could rely on him and with no guarantees about him staying on next year they took a reasonable deal. It's more like the Chandler Jones trade. Not that we are New England good, but the idea that we have a player on the last year of his deal and we feel like we can still compete without him this year, so let's get a good pick for him. That's the logic, at least. Might backfire on them.

 

I've been saying that if they really wanted to tank they would start selling off absolutely all their assets and team leaders - Kyle, Shady, Tyrod, Wood, etc. Those guys can all garner picks and losing them would all but guarantee a bottoming out. So why haven't they dished them all if they really are tanking?

[Alphadawg7]

So you guys who want to start Peterman just hate Peterman then right? Because the ABSOLUTE worst thing we could do to the kid is make him start before he is ready.

 

This kid has completed just 51% of his passes against backups and guys who wont even make a roster, and now you armchair GM's think he ready to start a game? Seriously, the complete lack of logic and football intelligence exhibited in all these trade everyone threads has gotten so over the top that the board is barely readable anymore.

 

Only a complete idiot GM would throw Peterman to the wolves right now, especially if they like the kid, which they reportedly do...and so do I. Which is why anyone who feels he has any potential should never suggest getting rid of TT just to start this kid right now.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I get what you mean, but I think with Sammy the team didn't feel that they could rely on him and with no guarantees about him staying on next year they took a reasonable deal. It's more like the Chandler Jones trade. Not that we are New England good, but the idea that we have a player on the last year of his deal and we feel like we can still compete without him this year, so let's get a good pick for him. That's the logic, at least. Might backfire on them.

 

I've been saying that if they really wanted to tank they would start selling off absolutely all their assets and team leaders - Kyle, Shady, Tyrod, Wood, etc. Those guys can all garner picks and losing them would all but guarantee a bottoming out. So why haven't they dished them all if they really are tanking?

That's the billion dollar question.

 

In terms of Sammy it's been beaten to death but they should have just paid him. He didn't hinder their cap in any way. He should have been a core piece on a young team. He has superstar talent. Obviously there are some questions but no more questions than the QB you are going to use a ton of draft picks to acquire. We know that Sammy, when targeted and healthy, is a superstar. He's much closer to a sure thing than anyone in the draft.

So you guys who want to start Peterman just hate Peterman then right? Because the ABSOLUTE worst thing we could do to the kid is make him start before he is ready.

 

This kid has completed just 51% of his passes against backups and guys who wont even make a roster, and now you armchair GM's think he ready to start a game? Seriously, the complete lack of logic and football intelligence exhibited in all these trade everyone threads has gotten so over the top that the board is barely readable anymore.

 

Only a complete idiot GM would throw Peterman to the wolves right now, especially if they like the kid, which they reportedly do...and so do I. Which is why anyone who feels he has any potential should never suggest getting rid of TT just to start this kid right now.

If they liked him that much they wouldn't have secured Matt Milano prior to taking him. He's played well in the preseason but there's no reason to believe that the Bills are planning on him as their long-term option. All of their actions have pointed to securing assets for the 2018 draft, a draft that is supposed to be loaded at QB. Peterman can basically play the role that Glennon played in 2014 until they got Jameis in 2015.

[Big C]

That's the billion dollar question.

 

In terms of Sammy it's been beaten to death but they should have just paid him. He didn't hinder their cap in any way. He should have been a core piece on a young team. He has superstar talent. Obviously there are some questions but no more questions than the QB you are going to use a ton of draft picks to acquire. We know that Sammy, when targeted and healthy, is a superstar. He's much closer to a sure thing than anyone in the draft.

 

You're probably right about that. I'm just saying, if this team was really tanking we'd already be rid of more players. Unless the windfall from dealing Sammy and losing Boldin has moved us into sell mode. But if the selling point for Shady is still high, I don't think they are ready to pack it in.

 

Really, the D looks ferocious right now and if the offense comes out with some better looks in the regular season, why can't they compete?

 

Good QBs are found all over the draft. While lately QBs have been going early and some of them like Winston and Mariota are looking good, the best QBs in the NFL right now and over the past 10 years or more have been picked outside of the top 10. Our roster is not as depleted as the Browns, 49ers, Bears, etc.

[Bangarang]

9th (in your scenario) isn't too far out to begin with given your scenario, and the number of QBs expected to come out, plus they have another 1st to move up if needed. I can't really picture your scenario at all - they just took a CB this year and it's a regime that everyone says doesn't value them...

I don't count on the number of QBs projected to come out being the same as the amount that do. Plus, anything can change. Matt Barkley and Jake Locker were talked about as being locks to go #1 overall.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

You're probably right about that. I'm just saying, if this team was really tanking we'd already be rid of more players. Unless the windfall from dealing Sammy and losing Boldin has moved us into sell mode. But if the selling point for Shady is still high, I don't think they are ready to pack it in.

 

Really, the D looks ferocious right now and if the offense comes out with some better looks in the regular season, why can't they compete?

 

Good QBs are found all over the draft. While lately QBs have been going early and some of them like Winston and Mariota are looking good, the best QBs in the NFL right now and over the past 10 years or more have been picked outside of the top 10. Our roster is not as depleted as the Browns, 49ers, Bears, etc.

I'd trade our roster for the Browns roster yesterday. They have young talent everywhere. That's the problem with our roster. Our best players are on the way down, not up. We need our talent to sync up with a QB's peak.

 

They may still think that they can compete. I just don't understand getting worse if that was the goal?

 

Also, this team is in desperate need of a franchise QB. They are going to invest early to increase the chances. If they fall into one late (like Peterman) that works out, great!! That can't be the plan though.

Edited August 22, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[Formerly Allan in MD]

So McCoy's only worth a 4th or 5th round pick. The league is drooling for you to become the Bills GM.

[Alphadawg7]

That's the billion dollar question.

 

In terms of Sammy it's been beaten to death but they should have just paid him. He didn't hinder their cap in any way. He should have been a core piece on a young team. He has superstar talent. Obviously there are some questions but no more questions than the QB you are going to use a ton of draft picks to acquire. We know that Sammy, when targeted and healthy, is a superstar. He's much closer to a sure thing than anyone in the draft.

If they liked him that much they wouldn't have secured Matt Milano prior to taking him. He's played well in the preseason but there's no reason to believe that the Bills are planning on him as their long-term option. All of their actions have pointed to securing assets for the 2018 draft, a draft that is supposed to be loaded at QB. Peterman can basically play the role that Glennon played in 2014 until they got Jameis in 2015.

 

No offense Kirby, but I honestly couldn't hate your response more. I mean just look at RG3 vs. Kirk Cousins and you can see how ridiculous what you just said is.

 

They drafted him, its over...what round he was taken LITERALLY has no relevancy now. Ask Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, and an endless amount of other examples how much their draft slot mattered once the draft was over. You an also go ask JaMarcus Russel, Brian Brohm, Ryan Leaf, JP Losman etc how much their lofty draft slot mattered once it was over too.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

No offense Kirby, but I honestly couldn't hate your response more. I mean just look at RG3 vs. Kirk Cousins and you can see how ridiculous what you just said is.

 

They drafted him, its over...what round he was taken LITERALLY has no relevancy now. Ask Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, and an endless amount of other examples how much their draft slot mattered once the draft was over. You an also go ask JaMarcus Russel, Brian Brohm, Ryan Leaf, JP Losman etc how much their lofty draft slot mattered once it was over too.

That's why hindsight can't be a part of this conversation. For a team that needs a franchise QB like the Bills they have to be looking early. There is a much, much, much, much better chance of a top 5 pick being a franchise QB than a 4th rounder. The Bills have to play the percentages.

[Big C]

I'd trade our roster for the Browns roster yesterday. They have young talent everywhere. That's the problem with our roster. Our best players are on the way down, not up. We need our talent to sync up with a QB's peak.

 

They may still think that they can compete. I just don't understand getting worse if that was the goal?

 

Also, this team is in desperate need of a franchise QB. They are going to invest early to increase the chances. If they fall into one late (like Peterman) that works out, great!! That can't be the plan though.

 

The Browns have not tanked specifically for a QB though. They took chances on guys a little later with their extra picks and went BPA with their 1st. Of course, that's still no guarantee, but it's a better strategy than selling the farm for a QB no matter what. If we are trying to build up assets to get mroe talent regardless of position more or less, sure I get that logic.

[YoloinOhio]

I don't count on the number of QBs projected to come out being the same as the amount that do. Plus, anything can change. Matt Barkley and Jake Locker were talked about as being locks to go #1 overall.

so they will draft a CB?

[Big C]

That's why hindsight can't be a part of this conversation. For a team that needs a franchise QB like the Bills they have to be looking early. There is a much, much, much, much better chance of a top 5 pick being a franchise QB than a 4th rounder. The Bills have to play the percentages.

 

Is that true, though? If I had to list my top 5-10 QBs in the league, most of them would have been picked outside of the top 10.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

The Browns have not tanked specifically for a QB though. They took chances on guys a little later with their extra picks and went BPA with their 1st. Of course, that's still no guarantee, but it's a better strategy than selling the farm for a QB no matter what. If we are trying to build up assets to get mroe talent regardless of position more or less, sure I get that logic.

I don't disagree. That's why I'm banging my head against the wall at these deals. Those guys were 24 and 22. You got a 2nd and 3rd plus a couple of guys entering FA. The guys that you draft in those spots won't be as good as Darby or Watkins. They must be gathering assets to sell the farm for a QB. That's the only thing that makes sense.

 

Is that true, though? If I had to list my top 5-10 QBs in the league, most of them would have been picked outside of the top 10.

Oh absolutely and it's not even close. I've done it on here a bunch of times. It's like 50% of the top 5. Once you get in the mid rounds it's less than 10% (and a lot less). We remember the Cousins of the world but forget the Zac Dyserts.

[Big C]

I don't disagree. That's why I'm banging my head against the wall at these deals. Those guys were 24 and 22. You got a 2nd and 3rd plus a couple of guys entering FA. The guys that you draft in those spots won't be as good as Darby or Watkins. They must be gathering assets to sell the farm for a QB. That's the only thing that makes sense.

 

I hear you. I don't think one deal happens without the other, because both deals effectively included replacement players, but it must point to something behind the scenes regarding Sammy, mustn't it? Like, if they knew they weren't going to keep him it must be because they don't believe he can stay healthy or they don't believe in paying a premium for that type of player. Maybe they saw the Panthers reach the Super Bowl without a #1 receiver and think that they got something of more value to them than a Sammy Watkins? I really don't know. But I don't think the moves point to full-on tanking. But again, if they look like garbage out of the gate, maybe they do start selling off and going full rebuild.

[CommonCents]

 

No offense Kirby, but I honestly couldn't hate your response more. I mean just look at RG3 vs. Kirk Cousins and you can see how ridiculous what you just said is.

 

They drafted him, its over...what round he was taken LITERALLY has no relevancy now. Ask Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, and an endless amount of other examples how much their draft slot mattered once the draft was over. You an also go ask JaMarcus Russel, Brian Brohm, Ryan Leaf, JP Losman etc how much their lofty draft slot mattered once it was over too.

That's an insult to Tim couch.

[Bangarang]

so they will draft a CB?

How could I possibly know that in August? It would be very Billsy if we did and thus not surprising.

Edited August 22, 2017 by Bangarang