Big C Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 (edited) Oh absolutely and it's not even close. I've done it on here a bunch of times. It's like 50% of the top 5. Once you get in the mid rounds it's less than 10% (and a lot less). We remember the Cousins of the world but forget the Zac Dyserts. But it's not just about hit rates. Obviously there are more late round QBs that don't pan out, but partly that's due to the fact that more QBs are taken in later rounds because of the greater number of picks and lower risk. I'm saying if you look at the top QBs in the league over the past however many years, I think more of them were taken in later rounds. 8 of the 12 teams that made the playoffs last year did it with QBs that were picked out of the top 10. Of the eight QBs in the top 30 NFL players according to the top 100 players show, only one was selected in the top 10. Winston and Mariota might signal a change there, and I understand what you're saying, but I think bottoming out for a possible QB, especially when you don't know who is going to be there, is unwise. If you're bottoming out because you are just rebuilding and you take a Clowney or Garrett instead, cool. I'm still not sure what the Bills FO thinks of itself yet. Edited August 22, 2017 by Big C
Kirby Jackson Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 But it's not just about hit rates. Obviously there are more late round QBs that don't pan out, but partly that's due to the fact that more QBs are taken in later rounds because of the greater number of picks and lower risk. I'm saying if you look at the top QBs in the league over the past however many years, I think more of them were taken in later rounds. 8 of the 12 teams that made the playoffs last year did it with QBs that were picked out of the top 10. Of the eight QBs in the top 30 NFL players according to the top 100 players show, only one was selected in the top 10. Winston and Mariota might signal a change there, and I understand what you're saying, but I think bottoming out for a possible QB, especially when you don't know who is going to be there, is unwise. If you're bottoming out because you are just rebuilding and you take a Clowney or Garrett instead, cool. I'm still not sure what the Bills FO thinks of itself yet. The hit rate works the other way. Half of the QBs in the top 5 (roughly) are franchise QBs. About 10% (if I remember correctly) of the rest of the QBs picked end up as franchise guys. You have to play the percentages.
mikef272002 Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 Trade : Tyrod for 4th (Start Peterman) Shady for 3rd (Start Wiliams) Clay for 5th (Start O'liery) Preston Brown for 3rd (Start Ragland) Darious for 2nd (Start Washington) Start all over again!
YoloinOhio Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 How could I possibly know that in August? It would be very Billsy if we did and thus not surprising.thats why it makes no sense.
Doc Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 For good reason? Shadys 29 and will run out of steam sooner rather then later. Sammys 24, a WR and an up and coming star if he can stay healthy and get targets. They have it backwards. That's a big "if" for Sammy. Which is why they gave up on him before committing $12-14M/year on him.
Boatdrinks Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 (edited) That's a big "if" for Sammy. Which is why they gave up on him before committing $12-14M/year on him. We don't know that it's any more an if for Sammy than any other guy at his position. I'm not an expert on Jones fractures, but once it's healed I doubt it is more susceptible to reinjury than if it hadn't occurred to begin with. We just saw it with Matthews in training camp. The fact is that injuries are pretty random in the NFL. OBJ sprained his ankle last night and Marshall got X rays too. Guys carrying the ball get hit. They get injured. Every maroon on a message board wants to proclaim themselves experts in random events such as players getting injured . Edited August 22, 2017 by Boatdrinks
BADOLBILZ Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 I think Mario Williams in 2014 was better. Takeo Spikes' 2003 season was better too. I also think it's arguable that Dareus' 2014 season was better than McCoy's 2016 season. Let's not forget that the Bills D in 2003 was first overall in defensive DVOA and second overall in 2014. Using Pro-football-reference's overall-value AV measure, here's where things stand: Mario Williams in 2014: 18 Spikes in 2004: 17 Dareus in 2014: 17 McCoy in 2016: 13 18 is *really* high. Man......you better watch out you will get a rep as a Shady hater. It's mostly about the position with Shady.......RB is a devalued position where 6th round rookies can come in and flash with huge seasons........no other offensive position like that. We value guys that do it year in and year out more of course..........but it matters that you can plug in a Mike Gillislee and get better production on a rather extensive basis. And from within the position........Shady has to come off the field on third and short and near the goal line. That's a significant issue..........less significant when you have the league's best short yardage and goal line guy in MG.......but without? Third down is the money down and scoring RZ touchdown % is so important you simply can't ignore a RB's weakness in that area when determining his status. Hopefully Jon Williams proves to be the physical short yardage/RZ guy that MG was but I expect that without MG Shady is set up to look bad because he will be used for things he's not good at.
Doc Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 We don't know that it's any more an if for Sammy than any other guy at his position. I'm not an expert on Jones fractures, but once it's healed I doubt it is more susceptible to reinjury than if it hadn't occurred to begin with. We just saw it with Matthews in training camp. The fact is that injuries are pretty random in the NFL. OBJ sprained his ankle last night and Marshall got X rays too. Guys carrying the ball get hit. They get injured. Every maroon on a message board wants to proclaim themselves experts in random events such as players getting injured . No one has a crystal ball. I'm sure injury history played a part, and as a result, to date, Sammy hasn't merited getting anywhere near the $20M he was scheduled to get in his 5th year option. So they decided not to give it to him and he probably got pissed and said he'd never re-sign with them. So they got what they could for him. Time will tell whether it was the right move or not. And it will be interesting to see if the Rams extend him before the season, or at all.
Boatdrinks Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 No one has a crystal ball. I'm sure injury history played a part, and as a result, to date, Sammy hasn't merited getting anywhere near the $20M he was scheduled to get in his 5th year option. So they decided not to give it to him and he probably got pissed and said he'd never re-sign with them. So they got what they could for him. Time will tell whether it was the right move or not. And it will be interesting to see if the Rams extend him before the season, or at all. Well the 5th year option wasn't $ 20M. He may have said he wouldn't re sign but none of his comments after it wasn't picked up would support that statement. If I recall, he said if he performed up to his abilities he would get what he deserved ( said this in LA as well) and that his job was to be a Buffalo Bill for life. We will see. I doubt he re-signs with the Rams before the season is up unless they give him boxcar #s. I'm don't see why he would, anyway.
26CornerBlitz Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 Well how about this you tank heads? @SNFonNBC Source: Bills haven’t entertained LeSean McCoy trade offers, and won’t http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/08/22/bills-havent-entertained-lesean-mccoy-trade-offers-and-wont/
Big C Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 Well how about this you tank heads? @SNFonNBC Source: Bills haven’t entertained LeSean McCoy trade offers, and won’t http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/08/22/bills-havent-entertained-lesean-mccoy-trade-offers-and-wont/ *Big sigh of relief*
CommonCents Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 Well how about this you tank heads? @SNFonNBC Source: Bills havent entertained LeSean McCoy trade offers, and wont http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/08/22/bills-havent-entertained-lesean-mccoy-trade-offers-and-wont/ Thanks for the update, I was just about to ask if anything was floating out there. In the long run it's the smart thing to do but we are less than a month away from football, don't crush my dreams Beaner.
Figster Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 Well how about this you tank heads? @SNFonNBC Source: Bills haven’t entertained LeSean McCoy trade offers, and won’t http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/08/22/bills-havent-entertained-lesean-mccoy-trade-offers-and-wont/ No mention of Tyrod Taylor...
26CornerBlitz Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 No mention of Tyrod Taylor... There haven't been any twitter rumors about Tyrod, so there was no need to mention him.
Figster Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 There haven't been any twitter rumors about Tyrod, so there was no need to mention him. still lots of rumors floating around, none worth mentioning albeit...
billsfan89 Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 If you can get a first round pick for Shady do it, he is a 29 year old running back (a position teams don't value) on a huge contract with a lot of years in the league. I think even if you get a second round pick offer you have to consider it because he is a 29 year old running back (a position teams don't value) on a huge contract with a lot of years in the league. But guess what there isn't a big offer coming because he is a 29 year old running back (a position teams don't value) on a huge contract with a lot of years in the league. The Eagles traded him for a promising linebacker coming off of a major injury when he was 27. Why would the Bills get anything more than mid round picks for Shady? So get rid of this notion that the team can get a "haul" for the player. I would rather hold onto him and try and keep this team competitive unless there is a Godfather offer that isn't coming. As far as Tyrod, why wouldn't you want an established veteran productive QB on the roster? He isn't a top 10 QB but have we forgotten how bad the QB position can be? Even if the Bills moved all in with the treasure chest of Picks on a QB, why wouldn't they want Tyrod for a year or two to take the hits while the team rebuilds the talent?
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 (edited) Trade : Tyrod for 4th (Start Peterman) Shady for 3rd (Start Wiliams) Clay for 5th (Start O'liery) Preston Brown for 3rd (Start Ragland) Darious for 2nd (Start Washington) Start all over again! ...so who are your takers and why??........... Edited August 22, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy
Big C Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 The hit rate works the other way. Half of the QBs in the top 5 (roughly) are franchise QBs. About 10% (if I remember correctly) of the rest of the QBs picked end up as franchise guys. You have to play the percentages. I get what you mean with the pure numbers of it, but it's not that simple. There is a larger risk/reward factor in play. You can afford to take more QBs in late rounds because the risk is so low, but you can't afford to take a QB with your first pick every year. It's most important to address the position often with a variety of picks when the value is there. The Patriots have drafted more QBs in the last tens years than the Bills have, and they have Brady. It's hard to compare us with them, for many reasons of course, but in this case as we've had different regimes frequently with different visions, but drafting Peterman while you have a good placeholder/veteran in Tyrod and continue to evaluate and address the position from here on. Maybe Peterman blossoms, maybe not. Keep trying is all. Just don't reach for a guy and continue to build talent where the need and value are highest in tandem.
26CornerBlitz Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 still lots of rumors floating around, none worth mentioning albeit... I'd be surprised if either one is dealt after Beane feigning indignation at the notion of tanking last week. If he turns right around and trades his starting QB or star RB, he loses credibility in a hurry.
Figster Posted August 22, 2017 Posted August 22, 2017 I'd be surprised if either one is dealt after Beane feigning indignation at the notion of tanking last week. If he turns right around and trades his starting QB or star RB, he loses credibility in a hurry. I'm not sure starting Peterman would be looked at as a tank move.
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