Mahomes is looking good

[dave mcbride]

Here is the thing about us in KC. Since 1989, when Marty Schottenhiemer arrived, the team has had the philosophy building as good a roster as possible and put a QB in place whose job it is not to mess things up and "manage" the game. Win the turnover and field position battle and wait for the other team to make mistakes. This has proven to be a GREAT formula for regular season success. Seriously, we went 13-3 with STEVE BONO as our QB. Hell, almost everyone we have had here for the better parts of the last 30 years have been "winners". Guys whose QBR, etc wouldn't lead you to believe they should be. The problem with this is that when you go to the playoffs, and you are playing teams who HAVE good/great QB's and your whole philosophy is to wait for them to make a mistake...you don't win in the playoffs. The list of QB's Kansas City has lost to in playoff games could fill a whole wing of the Hall of Fame. Marino, Manning, Big Ben, Brady, Elway, JIM KELLY, Since 93 when we lost to the Bills, the ONLY playoff win the Chiefs have had, came against.........Brian Hoyer. You may look at us whiners in KC and laugh at us because from the outside you see us here going 11-5 or so most years with Alex Smith and it would seem we are taking it for granted. We aren't. We've seen this movie before when it starred Steve DeBerg and Steve Bono, and Elvis Grbac and Matt Cassel etc etc etc.

 

With the collective bargaining agreement being what it is now, it does not cost you 5 years and millions of dollars if you miss on a guy. With the rules now so heavily favoring the passing game, it would be absolutely optimal draft strategy to draft a QB in round 1 every year until you found 1 that was "the man". The league is such that you aren't a real contender unless you have a bonifide QB....OR you have a generationally good defense. Not a top 2-5 defense..but a no.1 that is the best of it's era.

Terrific post.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

 

I think you are going back MUCH too far with the Steve Young reference.

 

Ever Big Ben went undefeated in his rookie year(before playoffs).......most of the elite QB's were pretty good very early in their career.

 

If you had the luxury of waiting on a Rodgers or Rivers you could benefit from it but brutal rookie years are no longer a given for QB's.

 

Imagine rookie Cam Newton in 1999........I doubt he opens up his career with a 400 yard passing game.

 

I suspect Aaron Rodgers would have been fine in Buffalo..........if he weren't concussed to death........but that almost happened in Green Bay too until Goodell stepped in and stopped all the contact with QB's and WR's over the middle.

He got great coaching in GB. I think we would have ruined him. We had one WR and no running game and crappy line.

[billsfan89]

 

 

I think you are going back MUCH too far with the Steve Young reference.

 

Ever Big Ben went undefeated in his rookie year(before playoffs).......most of the elite QB's were pretty good very early in their career.

 

If you had the luxury of waiting on a Rodgers or Rivers you could benefit from it but brutal rookie years are no longer a given for QB's.

 

Imagine rookie Cam Newton in 1999........I doubt he opens up his career with a 400 yard passing game.

 

I suspect Aaron Rodgers would have been fine in Buffalo..........if he weren't concussed to death........but that almost happened in Green Bay too until Goodell stepped in and stopped all the contact with QB's and WR's over the middle.

 

Big Ben was more of a game manager his rookie year. He had a team that had one of the top 3 defenses in the NFL and a great rushing game. He even had a stacked receiving core with Burruss, Ward, and even Randle El. Big Ben didn't light it up that first year throwing for 2600 yards and 17 TD's to 9 INT's. The Steelers played more conservatively which suited their talent and Big Ben made a handful of plays when they needed him to. He was much more similar to Tyrod then Dan Marino early on in his career.

 

I feel like Big Ben and Russell Wilson (Even Flacco to a lesser extent) are QB's who grew with a stacked team then developed by learning on the job so to speak. Big Ben was a game manager for his first 4-5 seasons in the NFL but made the big plays when it counted in the 4th. He gradually grew into the total package at QB Wilson was kind of the same way.

 

I feel like people who think you can just draft a QB and then it solves all your problems are kind of right but QB is a position where development and good situations are needed. There are very few QB's who come out of college as number 1 picks and then light it up.

Edited September 5, 2017 by billsfan89

[dave mcbride]

 

Big Ben was more of a game manager his rookie year. He had a team that had one of the top 3 defenses in the NFL and a great rushing game. He even had a stacked receiving core with Burruss, Ward, and even Randle El. Big Ben didn't light it up that first year throwing for 2600 yards and 17 TD's to 9 INT's. The Steelers played more conservatively which suited their talent and Big Ben made a handful of plays when they needed him to. He was much more similar to Tyrod then Dan Marino early on in his career.

 

I feel like Big Ben and Russell Wilson (Even Flacco to a lesser extent) are QB's who grew with a stacked team then developed by learning on the job so to speak. Big Ben was a game manager for his first 4-5 seasons in the NFL but made the big plays when it counted in the 4th. He gradually grew into the total package at QB Wilson was kind of the same way.

 

I feel like people who think you can just draft a QB and then it solves all your problems are kind of right but QB is a position where development and good situations are needed. There are very few QB's who come out of college as number 1 picks and then light it up.

Re Big Ben: game managers never, ever average 8.9 ypa, which is what he averaged in his rookie season.

[Kelly the Dog]

I remember Big Ben playing quite differently in his first couple seasons. He would still make some spectacular passes, even some bombs, but he was much more of a game manager. His first two years he averaged 21-22 passes a game, and then 31 his 3rd. Then 27, 29, 34.

[CircleTheWagons99]

Not just that he is a first round pick, but he was the pick we traded to KC.

Ok , so peterman is playing good against 2s and 3s as well. Which means we won on that trade....

[BADOLBILZ]

I remember Big Ben playing quite differently in his first couple seasons. He would still make some spectacular passes, even some bombs, but he was much more of a game manager. His first two years he averaged 21-22 passes a game, and then 31 his 3rd. Then 27, 29, 34.

 

 

Jim Kelly threw 18 TD's and 18 INT's and lead the Bills to a 12-4 record in 1993 on the way to his 4th consecutive SB.

 

Do we really need to have a discussion about what Big Ben's rookie year looked like compared to the typical good young QB in the 1980's?

 

There have been a bunch of really good years by rookie QB's....Luck/RG3/Newton/Wilson/Dak and I know I am missing a few........ and that almost never happened back in the 1970's-1990's.........Marino is the only one even comparable that I can think of.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Ok , so peterman is playing good against 2s and 3s as well. Which means we won on that trade....

 

...not yet.....kid has a long, long way to go...BUT...the initial promise of grasping the mental element of the game is sure as hell promising......the physical aspect (the worrywarts about an alleged "noodle arm which I disagree with) will improve with the S&C staff.....

[Kelly the Dog]

 

 

Jim Kelly threw 18 TD's and 18 INT's and lead the Bills to a 12-4 record in 1993 on the way to his 4th consecutive SB.

 

Do we really need to have a discussion about what Big Ben's rookie year looked like compared to the typical good young QB in the 1980's?

 

There have been a bunch of really good years by rookie QB's....Luck/RG3/Newton/Wilson/Dak and I know I am missing a few........ and that almost never happened back in the 1970's-1990's.........Marino is the only one even comparable that I can think of.

Next time I will ask you if it's okay to respond to another poster's observation.

[1billsfan]

Ok , so peterman is playing good against 2s and 3s as well. Which means we won on that trade....

 

I started this thread after Mahomes week 2 preseason game, before Peterman's solid performances in the preseason.

 

Peterman has looked pretty good, so much so that I'm not feeling nearly as uncomfortable with the trade as I did when I first posted the thread.

 

Here's a question to Bills fans, if you had a chance at a redo, and take Mahomes and not have an extra #1 pick in 2018, and not have Peterman, would you do a do over?

 

I honestly don't know right now. Mahomes really looks like a Favre-type who will throw a lot of picks along with electrifying TDs. Peterman is the classic drop back passer, the style of QB who has won superbowls 90% of the time.

Edited September 5, 2017 by 1billsfan

[billsfan89]

Re Big Ben: game managers never, ever average 8.9 ypa, which is what he averaged in his rookie season.

 

In 14 games he threw 21 times per game, that's extremely low . Yes his yards per-attempt were high but that was skewed by the fact that a lot of his throws were coming on third and long. The 2004 and 2005 Steelers played a style where they ran the ball on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and short. They had Bettis and Duce Staley both rush for over 800 yard and 900 yards respectively.

 

Big Ben ranked 28th in passing attempts in the league in 2004, they only had him throw when it was completely needed. That's not to say that Big Ben didn't make plays now and again but he definitely was a game manager his first two years in the league. In 2004 and 2005 his job with the Steelers was to simply not turn the ball over and convert a few third and longs now and again.

 

It wasn't until 2006 that Big Ben would eclipse the 400 passing yard mark and even in that year he struggled throwing 18 TD's against 23 INT's. I think Big Ben became a real franchise QB in his 4th year in 2007 when he started to be counted on more and got more comfortable shouldering more of the offensive load. But I do think that Big Ben was definitely a case of a QB finding himself in a excellent situation where the team developed him slowly while the defense and surrounding talent was good enough to carry a weaker QB.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

I started this thread after Mahomes week 2 preseason game, before Peterman's solid performances in the preseason.

 

Peterman has looked pretty good, so much so that I'm not feeling nearly as uncomfortable with the trade as I did when I first posted the thread.

 

Here's a question to Bills fans, if you had a chance at a redo, and take Mahomes and not have an extra #1 pick in 2018, and not have Peterman, would you do a do over?

 

I honestly don't know right now. Mahomes really looks like a Favre-type who will throw a lot of picks along with electrifying TDs. Peterman is the classic drop back passer, the style of QB who has won superbowls 90% of the time.

 

Far too early for either one of these based on preseason play.

[CircleTheWagons99]

I started this thread after Mahomes week 2 preseason game, before Peterman's solid performances in the preseason.

 

Peterman has looked pretty good, so much so that I'm not feeling nearly as uncomfortable with the trade as I did when I first posted the thread.

 

Here's a question to Bills fans, if you had a chance at a redo, and take Mahomes and not have an extra #1 pick in 2018, and not have Peterman, would you do a do over?

 

I honestly don't know right now. Mahomes really looks like a Favre-type who will throw a lot of picks along with electrifying TDs. Peterman is the classic drop back passer, the style of QB who has won superbowls 90% of the time.

I just want an answer at QB this year so we can use ALL the picks on a solid team for the future.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

Far too early for either one of these based on preseason play.

True but Mahomes entire college career he looked like an even more erratic Favre, or perhaps better, Favre in his last couple years. That's exactly how he always plays. Wows you one second and makes you want to murder him the next. The only question is if he grows out of the erratic Favre into the tolerable Favre, or hopefully for the Chiefs, the great Favre.

[26CornerBlitz]

True but Mahomes entire college career he looked like an even more erratic Favre, or perhaps better, Favre in his last couple years. That's exactly how he always plays. Wows you one second and makes you want to murder him the next. The only question is if he grows out of the erratic Favre into the tolerable Favre, or hopefully for the Chiefs, the great Favre.

 

Favre offered up quite a few playoff gifts to opposing defenses in both GB and MIN. The ultimate gunslinger. We shall see on Mahomes.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

Favre offered up quite a few playoff gifts to opposing defenses in both GB and MIN. The ultimate gunslinger. We shall see on Mahomes.

True. I just think he is an apt comparison to how he plays. I watched a bunch of Mahomes games in college. That's exactly how he plays. All the time. Sometimes he's good or great. Other times he messes up or takes too many chances.

[JohnC]

True. I just think he is an apt comparison to how he plas. I watched a bunch of Mahomes games in college. That's exactly how he plays. All the time. Sometimes he's good or great. Other times he messes up or takes too many chances.

You hit the essential issue on a qb such as Mahomes. Can his dynamic yet undisciplined passing style and game be tamed enough to run a pro offense? For me I believe so because he has the personal attributes such as work ethic and intelligence to adapt to the much more complex game. From all that I have heard he is very coachable. However, it must be understood that it isn't going to be done right away.

 

My thinking is that having Tyler was a good situation for him because the rookie wouldn't have to play right away. My preference has been for this lagging franchise to get a qb on its roster sooner rather than later. As it turns out KC believed that trading up for Mahomes was a worthy risk and investment while the Bills passed on another good opportunity to meaningfully address a positon that hasn't satisfactorily been addressed in almost a quarter century.

[Coach Tuesday]

As it turns out KC believed that trading up for Mahomes was a worthy risk and investment while the Bills passed on another good opportunity to meaningfully address a positon that hasn't satisfactorily been addressed in almost a quarter century.

 

KC - which ALREADY HAS A QUALITY STARTER - made an aggressive move to pick a QB in Round 1, and the Bills passed yet again. This has happened before; among other examples, the Packers drafted Rodgers with Favre still in his prime. There are many teams around the league (Indy, San Diego, etc.) that have managed to find TWO franchise QBs within the two decades that the Bills have not had a single one.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

no jeffsmagic and this thread is still running?

 

OK whats he holding over you people

[JohnC]

 

KC - which ALREADY HAS A QUALITY STARTER - made an aggressive move to pick a QB in Round 1, and the Bills passed yet again. This has happened before; among other examples, the Packers drafted Rodgers with Favre still in his prime. There are many teams around the league (Indy, San Diego, etc.) that have managed to find TWO franchise QBs within the two decades that the Bills have not had a single one.

Whaley had an irrational reluctance to seriously address the qb issue. The irony is that (many reports) he wanted to draft Mahomes with last year's first round pick. The problem was that he lost his authority to make the selections to the wrestling coach. When all is said and done dithering is not a strategy that leads to success.

 

Will McDermott use his draft assets to draft a high end qb prospect next year? I get the sense that he will. We shall see.