teef Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 No it's not. But continue the narrative... yes, it is. the difference is that you just don't want to believe it for some reason.
plenzmd1 Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 (edited) I don't understand the " he would not sign in Buffalo" stuff. No indication one way or the other on that. I do know the Bills had him locked up for at least next year on the Franchise tag. Problem is if Sammy has a 4th season exactly like the one he has had the first 3. Do you tag him? For 1000 yds? Again, the dude had two 1000 yd years before last season and the big injury. That' is what he has proven. The rest is potential. This is not a guy who had a 1600 yd year and 15 TDS, then got hurt. Edited August 14, 2017 by plenzmd1
teef Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 Post from other thread. Thank you. The Bills had all the leverage. The narrative that Sammy was gone after this year is laughable. They didn't like Sammy and they didn't want to pay him(despite, as BADOL said, they have loads of cap room and NOBODY ELSE necessary to resign next year). My question is why? And has me extremely skeptical of the new guys in charge. Looks like the same old, same old to me. this is the better approach. they could sign him, but is it worth it. i'm someone who felt they should have let him played his final year and see how he worked out. the worst scenario would have been if sammy misses a game or two, has that 900-950 with 7 td type season. what do you do then? do you tag him with those numbers? let him test FA? to me, that's when it gets the most confusing. sure the bills could have found a way to keep him, but would it be worth the pay out? I don't understand the " he would not sign in Buffalo" stuff. No indication one way or the other on that. I do know the Bills had him locked up for at least next year on the Franchise tag. Problem is if Sammy has a 4th season exactly like the one he has had the first 3. Do you tag him? For 1000 yds? Again, the dude had two 1000 yd years before last season and the big injury. That' is what he has proven. The rest is potential. This is not a guy who had a 1600 yd year and 15 TDS, then got hurt. beat me to it.
GoBills808 Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 Yeah, you can look up numbers and base rankings on it and you would be right these guys look better and have proven it. Unfortunately, for that train of thought, what guys have done is an indicator of future performance- not the be all end all. If you can honestly say you would rather have some of these guys going forward that's your prerogative. No way I'm taking Fitzgerald for example ahead of Sammy going forward. There are a few others that don't have the ceiling Sammy does. And, ceiling needs to be considered heavily when forecasting the future. A good scout is better than looking at the numbers, and he is better at telling you what the guy is capable of. Both, can be useful, just not the be all end all. I think has Sammy has Top 5 talent and so do a lot of really good scouts. There's just no way you can say, at this moment, that Watkins is a top 5 receiver. He may have that potential, but it's never been realized. He's barely top 5 in his draft class.
Bill_with_it Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 (edited) Yes the hate for Watkins is palpable...... ODB is targeted 12+x's a game with a good QB...... Every game they threw to Watkins he was productive. Perfect example of wasted talent was vs. KC, where he torched them the first half and then the Bills forgot he was on the field the second half. Mark my words (as if it matters) that this trade was garbage. Beckham has never averaged 12+ targets per game. There are some delusional folks in this board.https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BeckOd00.htm Edited August 14, 2017 by Bill_with_it
SoTier Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 You don't give away a top 5 talent for crumbs and that is what they did. This future crap is just a pipe dream (especially in football) and people being sold and obsessed with the draft are kidding themselves. NE was damn lucky that Bledsoe was injured and their 6th round draft choice was Tom Brady. The Bills have made the giving away their best talent into a unique art form over the length of the playoff drought. Most crappy teams simply fail to recognize and acquire talent. The Bills aren't that bad. They've proven that they are at least adequate in finding talent, and pretty good finding good players in the later rounds and among free agents. Their problem is that they then turn around and give it away, primarily because they aren't willing to pay to keep talented players. They are constantly using their top draft picks to fill the holes created by the previous top players who have been sent off to help teams like Minnesota, Chicago, Philadelphia, Seattle, and New England win playoff games ... and even the Super Bowl. Under Doug Whaley that seemed to change to some extent but the current regime has resurrected it full blown again. They let Pro Bowl DB Gilmore walk and used their 2017 first round pick to draft his replacement. They traded away their elite WR, and hype a journeyman and an unproven rookie as "just as good". They peddle the idea of future draft picks turning into wins the way televangelists peddle salvation. Most definitely, they're playing Bills fans for suckers.
TheElectricCompany Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 There's just no way you can say, at this moment, that Watkins is a top 5 receiver. He may have that potential, but it's never been realized. He's barely top 5 in his draft class. Yep - clearly the raw tools are there, just haven't seen it all together yet. Folks like to bring up that he hasn't been in a perfect situation for production, possibly due to scheme and QB issues. This is true, but all but a few teams in the NFL could say the same thing.
White Linen Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 And why is that? If a player is worth $12-15 million and is the going rate and you have a star, then why not pay him? The Bills management have shown themselves to be so much ahead of the curve and smarter? Sorry The Pats and a few others get a pass to make such bold moves, the Bills do not. They traded the #4 pick for pennies on the $ and have put TT in a tough position. Now if thjey only traded Darby and said we're going all in on offense with Shady, Watkins, a veteran in Boldin & Matthews then I'd buy it. I thought it was explained connecting the post I responded to. Understand I'm not happy we don't have Watkins and I would have liked to ink him to a long term contract. I'm just merely pointing out that two realities exist. One is a player posts the numbers and gets paid accordingly ie Antonio Brown - Two is a player posts good numbers but other factors are considered and they get paid potential. In Sammy's case, picking up his 5th year option would have been on potential and I think it's likely his next contract will as well. All I'm saying is that Beane was not going to do that - so he attempted to mitigate the loss of Sammy with Matthews and the 2nd Rd pick was enough to cement the deal(s).
Billsfan1972 Posted August 14, 2017 Author Posted August 14, 2017 I don't understand the " he would not sign in Buffalo" stuff. No indication one way or the other on that. I do know the Bills had him locked up for at least next year on the Franchise tag. Problem is if Sammy has a 4th season exactly like the one he has had the first 3. Do you tag him? For 1000 yds? Again, the dude had two 1000 yd years before last season and the big injury. That' is what he has proven. The rest is potential. This is not a guy who had a 1600 yd year and 15 TDS, then got hurt. How about throwing him the ball. He had 1000 yard seasons and the highest YPC and less balls thrown his direction then any #1 receiver. What are you missing?
White Linen Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 How about throwing him the ball. He had 1000 yard seasons and the highest YPC and less balls thrown his direction then any #1 receiver. What are you missing? I wouldn't disagree. I think that's one of the real factors in the "potential" column I mentioned above. I think he'll face a similar situation with Goff whom I don't think elevates Sammy into the 1,300-1,600 yd range - hence I believe he'll get paid on what he's capable of doing. Of course I could be wrong but I don't think Goff or their offense is there yet.
Billsfan1972 Posted August 14, 2017 Author Posted August 14, 2017 Beckham has never averaged 12+ targets per game. There are some delusional folks in this board. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BeckOd00.htm Are you beating that drum still? Okay I'm wrong 10.62/gm, vs. Watkins 7.46. Watkins also played with QB's much less accurate. So 3 more targets a game and Watkins should catch 2 more passes. Also averages 1.8 yards more/catch. Same amount of throws and Watkins is over 90 receptions and 1450 yards if healthy...... Oh and he had EJ throwing to him and an OC looking the other way. Scary what they gave up.
TheElectricCompany Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 (edited) Are you beating that drum still? Okay I'm wrong 10.62/gm, vs. Watkins 7.46. Watkins also played with QB's much less accurate. So 3 more targets a game and Watkins should catch 2 more passes. Also averages 1.8 yards more/catch. Same amount of throws and Watkins is over 90 receptions and 1450 yards if healthy...... Oh and he had EJ throwing to him and an OC looking the other way. Scary what they gave up. Football isn't that easy. You can't just up the percentage targets/touches and get the same percentage output. It's convenient to blame it all on the QBs and scheme, but there's more to it than that, and some of that falls on Sammy. Edited August 14, 2017 by TheElectricCompany
Billsfan1972 Posted August 14, 2017 Author Posted August 14, 2017 (edited) Football isn't that easy. You can't just up the percentage targets/touches and get the same percentage output. It's convenient to blame it all on the QBs and scheme, but there's more to it than that, and some of that falls on Sammy. I watched the games and it was the coaching as never was a play changed at the line when it was obvious single coverage. No plays over the middle, no motion and few quick screens. Actually it is pretty simple. When you have a great receiver you devise plays to get him touches. Every successful team does that. Maybe Golden State should predicate their offense around Curry being a decoy. Edited August 14, 2017 by Billsfan1972
John from Riverside Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 I would like to see if Sammy could actually HANDLE 12 throws to him a game..... because so far that has not happened
teef Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 I watched the games and it was the coaching as never was a play changed at the line when it was obvious single coverage. No plays over the middle, no motion and few quick screens. Actually it is pretty simple. When you have a great receiver you devise plays to get him touches. Every successful team does that. Maybe Golden State should predicate their offense around Curry being a decoy. i think the point is that is hasn't happened yet since sammy has been here, so it's not slam dunk that it will suddenly start happening. it should have, but with a boldin, jones, healthy clay, etc...it may not have again.
plenzmd1 Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 How about throwing him the ball. He had 1000 yard seasons and the highest YPC and less balls thrown his direction then any #1 receiver. What are you missing? Dude, you have still not answered even one question regarding your logic vis a vis potential, draft picks and in some weird logic how Bledsoe and Romo getting hurt has some kind of relevance to Sammy getting traded. PLease answer that first. And then explain to me how Sammy is a top 5 receiver based on production, not potential. Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.
TheElectricCompany Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 I watched the games and it was the coaching as never was a play changed at the line when it was obvious single coverage. No plays over the middle, no motion and few quick screens. Actually it is pretty simple. When you have a great receiver you devise plays to get him touches. Every successful team does that. Maybe Golden State should predicate their offense around Curry being a decoy. Steph Curry has what to do with this? He's one of the greatest shooters of our generation. The play calling could be improved, and certainly the QB play was inconsistent. No doubt. Just saying that's not all of it. You have to put some of the blame on Sammy.
artmalibu Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 Crazy question, but is there any gained cap with the trades?
Billsfan1972 Posted August 14, 2017 Author Posted August 14, 2017 Dude, you have still not answered even one question regarding your logic vis a vis potential, draft picks and in some weird logic how Bledsoe and Romo getting hurt has some kind of relevance to Sammy getting traded. PLease answer that first. And then explain to me how Sammy is a top 5 receiver based on production, not potential. Truly, you have a dizzying intellect. I was pointing out that drafts are a crapshoot and there are a # of factors that come into play. I used Brady as an example that if Bledsoe was never injured, would he be who he is today. Second rounders are no sure things. A top 4 choice usually does okay.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 Ok, so you don't think he'll get targeted 12 times per game. I suppose that is my mistake for assuming that by saying that he'd get 12 targets per game in LA, that you thought he'd actually get 12 targets per game. I actually think that 7 targets per game expanded out to 112 is still a winning bet for the under, as the Rams #1 receiver last year had only 111 targets, and Sammy Watkins does not project to play an entire 16 game season. But, on that I am not willing to bet $5000. Maybe then you both can simply wager a humiliating post of concession, authored by the other as a prize for winning the bet. I think 128 on a season is a fair number. Crazy question, but is there any gained cap with the trades? I think they are all on there all rookie deals still, no matter which way it worked out I doubt more than a couple million in any direction. Guessing cap wasn't a factor in this move.
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