JMF2006 Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 Because the last 17 years makes you so confident. The NFL draft is a crap shoot. Coaching and skill players are what wins games..... Your right trading up for Watkins proves that.
DriveFor1Outta5 Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 Because the last 17 years makes you so confident. The NFL draft is a crap shoot. Coaching and skill players are what wins games..... The draft may be a crap shoot, but the most important is not trying to outsmart everyone else. We've been doing that for the past 17 years. I'd also make the argument that Coaching, QB, and the guys on both sides in the trenches win games.
KollegeStudnet Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 Potentially he could've been a top 5 WR and still may. Doubt he does. I'm good for what we got. Let's move on.
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 (edited) Wrt to top 5 recurring comment: Top WRs in NFL... Antonio brown Julio Jones Dez Bryant OBJ DeAndre Hopkins Mike Evans Larry Fitz Doug Baldwin Amari Cooper AJ Green Yeah, you can look up numbers and base rankings on it and you would be right these guys look better and have proven it. Unfortunately, for that train of thought, what guys have done is an indicator of future performance- not the be all end all. If you can honestly say you would rather have some of these guys going forward that's your prerogative. No way I'm taking Fitzgerald for example ahead of Sammy going forward. There are a few others that don't have the ceiling Sammy does. And, ceiling needs to be considered heavily when forecasting the future. A good scout is better than looking at the numbers, and he is better at telling you what the guy is capable of. Both, can be useful, just not the be all end all. I think has Sammy has Top 5 talent and so do a lot of really good scouts. Edited August 14, 2017 by horned dogs
TheElectricCompany Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 You can't judge this trade until those 2nd & 3rd round picks are used. If they bust, or are significantly lesser players than Sammy/Darby, it was a bad move. Sammy and Darby are both young, their best years may still be ahead of them. I understand the Sammy trade, but Darby still stings. Can't have too many quality corners, and he's shown the ability to be a great one.
plenzmd1 Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 NE was damn lucky that Bledsoe was injured and their 6th round draft choice was Tom Brady. What in the world does this have to do with your argument? I'd think that It's really difficult to get anything more than a second for a non QB as well. I've often questioned the value of the WR position in today's NFL. I think most of the "analytics" guys are trending this way, same as with RB. A position you should be able to address in later rounds of the draft. The NFL draft is a crap shoot. Coaching and skill players are what wins games..... you say the NFL draft is a crap shoot, then downplay the value of having extra die to make numbers...please get your story and argument coherent .
John from Riverside Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 as soon as you said "and not from a draft junkie" your post lost merit The 2nd round draft choice WAS part of the equation
plenzmd1 Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 That's exactly what they are doing with this trade. They seem to think they are smarter then everyone. No question that 2nd round pick won't be the talent Sammy is. I'd be my life savings on it. what would you like to wager???? Come up with some reasonable way to judge the trade, and I am all in brother
BillsFan17 Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 Yes the hate for Watkins is palpable...... ODB is targeted 12+x's a game with a good QB...... Every game they threw to Watkins he was productive. Perfect example of wasted talent was vs. KC, where he torched them the first half and then the Bills forgot he was on the field the second half. Mark my words (as if it matters) that this trade was garbage. So he was criminally under utilized, no one will argue that, but again, stacked up against his own class he wasn't worth the fourth overall and if you think Tyrod was suddenly going to blow up and utilize him so much more, when we didn't know if his foot would hold up..
mjt328 Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 Some GMs undervalue draft picks. Others overvalue them. It's clear that Doug Whaley undervalued them. This is a big hint that Brandon Beane may overvalue them. To me, the value of a draft pick vs. an established player, comes down to "how likely" it will result in talent of equal or greater value. Stockpiling draft picks always sounds nice and promising for the future. But at some point, those picks become real players. For every Herschel Walker trade that creates a dynasty, there are hundreds of Darrelle Revis for Dee Milliner trades. Dumping Jason Peters got us Eric Wood, which was an OK deal. But dumping Marshawn Lynch only got us Chris Hairston and Tank Carder. When Whaley traded up for Sammy Watkins, it was a bad trade. Why? Because it was very unlikely that a wide receiver (with no franchise QB) would ever be as valuable as two 1st Round starters at other positions. As many pointed out at the time, it would have been smarter to take a "lesser" talent at wide receiver (like Kelvin Benjamin or Odell Beckham were considered at the time) and pair him with a starting offensive lineman, cornerback, linebacker, etc. the next draft. The Beane trade is also bad. Why? Because EJ Gaines is a fringe starter with injury issues, and it's unlikely a 2nd Round pick will be as good as Watkins.
PABillsfan23 Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 I don't get people's obsession with Watkins.. potential this potential that. He's missed quite a few games in his career. I keep seeing comparisons to Julio Jones. Well Julio has Matt Ryan.
Ramza86 Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 - No 5th year option - If he finishes healthy, he will demand top dollar. - Injury Prone Too risky. We arent a good enough passing team to give him the money his talent equates to. IF he can even stay healthy. I think it was smart we got something for him. I think its better off being someone else's risk/reward
TheElectricCompany Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 (edited) No question that 2nd round pick won't be the talent Sammy is. I'd be my life savings on it. Raw abilities like Sammy's are tough to find in the 2nd, I agree with that, but raw ability doesn't win games. Can you find similar production to Sammy in the 2nd? A ~1000 yard guy like Desean Jackson? I believe so. Mcdermott and Beane clearly prefer to invest their money at other positions. To me, the value of a draft pick vs. an established player, comes down to "how likely" it will result in talent of equal or greater value. Stockpiling draft picks always sounds nice and promising for the future. But at some point, those picks become real players. For every Herschel Walker trade that creates a dynasty, there are hundreds of Darrelle Revis for Dee Milliner trades. Dumping Jason Peters got us Eric Wood, which was an OK deal. But dumping Marshawn Lynch only got us Chris Hairston and Tank Carder. Great quote here. I get the appeal of draft picks, I really do, but when your pick turns into a quality starter, and we had both with Sammy & Darby, you already got past the biggest hurdle, which is developing talent! I'm sure the "bust rate" is out there, but I've heard 45-55% for 1st and 2nd round picks. When you have a proven commodity, not sure I always agree with subjecting yourself to that risk again. Edited August 14, 2017 by TheElectricCompany
teef Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 I don't get people's obsession with Watkins.. potential this potential that. He's missed quite a few games in his career. I keep seeing comparisons to Julio Jones. Well Julio has Matt Ryan. like you said it's because of potential. we may not even see a drop off in production at the wr position with the way this team is set up. i don't think this team is better without sammy, but there may not be that much of a change...at all.
Webster Guy Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 Because the last 17 years makes you so confident. The NFL draft is a crap shoot. Coaching and skill players are what wins games..... Franchise qb's are where you start. Obviously. I've seen weak coaches win superbowls. The Pats have great coaching and skilled players yet we shut them out in their own stadium last year without their franchise qb. shut out. in foxboro. hall of fame coach. with a fairly average Bills defense. zero points. i agree the draft is a crapshoot, but having strong drafts is the way to the top, and amassing picks gives us a chance to break out and get a stud qq and a ton of other solid AFFORDABLE players for 4-5 years.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 (edited) Yeah, you can look up numbers and base rankings on it and you would be right these guys look better and have proven it. Unfortunately, for that train of thought, what guys have done is an indicator of future performance- not the be all end all. If you can honestly say you would rather have some of these guys going forward that's your prerogative. No way I'm taking Fitzgerald for example ahead of Sammy going forward. There are a few others that don't have the ceiling Sammy does. And, ceiling needs to be considered heavily when forecasting the future. A good scout is better than looking at the numbers, and he is better at telling you what the guy is capable of. Both, can be useful, just not the be all end all. I think has Sammy has Top 5 talent and so do a lot of really good scouts.I understand how amazing Sammy looks because us bills fans are not used to seeing talent. It's the same way many were infatuated with spiller.... I actually don't even care much about his injury history he missed 11 of 48 games. Independent of that, I just don't get the group think consensus that a guy that who is 20th in the NFL among active WRs, for average yds per game is an irreplaceable "top 5 talent" A number of the other guys ahead of him have bad teams, poor schemes and sub par QBs. Results matter... Edited August 14, 2017 by Over 29 years of fanhood
Crusher Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 Watkins didn't make much of an impact on this team. Check Taylor's #s with and without him. That's probably more on Taylor. Watkins is a dynamic WR, but his loss won't impact this team as much as you think. If they were a 6 win team with Watkins they are a 6 win team without. Again, that's more to do with the QB leading the passing attack. It's just not his strength. So what sense does it make to dump the better player at his lowest value? You dump the QB who is average at best, and keep the guy who has Julio Jones ability and could be a building block for the future.
DriveFor1Outta5 Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 I don't get people's obsession with Watkins.. potential this potential that. He's missed quite a few games in his career. I keep seeing comparisons to Julio Jones. Well Julio has Matt Ryan. This is where I'm at. Taking this stance gets one labeled with a "Watkins Bias", but it's based firmly in reality. Sammy Watkins on the roster is akin to owning a Ferrari without being able to afford gas money. It's wonderful to say you have it, but trading it in for a Nissan might not be a bad idea. Until we get the gas money (a franchise QB) it won't be of much use to us. Julian freaking Edelman is a star because his team has a franchise QB. Does anyone believe that he'd be a star anywhere else? If we do get a franchise QB people reminiscing about Watkins will the furthest thing from our minds. We'd be too busy making plans to attend a playoff game.
Simon Says Posted August 14, 2017 Posted August 14, 2017 (edited) I have noticed little mention the salary cap considerations of these deals. This year, the Bills probably dont save much cap money, but I'm sure Watkins & Darby combined, make more than then Matthews & Gaines? The Watkins deal eliminates a potentially messy, expensive free agency negotiation, Watkins is making 4 million and it would have cost what, 12, to pick up the option and the franchise tag is 16? Somebody, if not the Rams will take a chance and pay Sammy.The Bills are probably looking at the cap situation for 2018 and beyond. Also; ideally, it makes sense to DRAFT WELL, maximize that production for the 4 year contract, then if necessary, trade the player or let them walk. Bills have 6 picks in the first three rounds and hopefully hit on half of them, if that might include trading up. This makes sense to me, but let's wait and and see. Edited August 14, 2017 by Pablocruise
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