Andrew Luck not ready to start regular season

[Jasovon]

Luck along with Brees and Rivers are perfect examples of why the whole "just need a QB" crowd are dead wrong.

 

You need a complete team and a solid coaching staff along with good fortune or cheating to get ahead in this league.

[dave mcbride]

 

I said it at the time it happened, one of the worst contracts in the NFL that the Colts will live to regret. While I get WHY he got that deal, he was never going to live up to it. Luck is not only injury prone, but he is also incredibly turnover prone and stock piles stats trying to bring his team back from deficits his mistakes often put him in.

 

He is literally a nicer and more likable Jeff George. Jeff was a guy who had all the talent in the world, and many felt had the best arm in football most of his career, however he just didn't play smart enough to reach the potential he had. Colts actually had a better record when Luck was out then when he was healthy when Hasselbeck was his backup by a wide margin.

 

I fully recognize he is still relatively young and can continue to get better, but he is currently no where near worth the cap strangling price he is playing at right now between his poor postseason history (stats are way worse in post season and has more turnovers than TDs), his tendency to compile big stats against bad opponents and turnover machine against good ones, and he is seriously injury prone.

 

While I get we still have question marks at our QB position, I would take our situation right now every single time over the Colts. We got a solid starter on a team friendly contract with the draft assets to go after potentially any QB in the draft next year versus a nasty contract of a QB who has never gotten his turnovers under control and can't stay on the field either.

You know I respect your opinion, but he's better than you claim. He simply hasn't been healthy the last two seasons (really, going back to the season opener against Buffalo in 2015). 2015 was a wash for him - they went 2-5 with him in there and he simply wasn't right (broken rib). The last time he was truly healthy (2014), the team went 11-5 and he had a 40-16 TD/INT ratio. Last year, he had a 31-13 TD/INT ratio and 7.8 ypa. They went 8-7 with him in there, and overall the Colts have been 43-27 with him at the helm.

 

The rest of team sucks. Grigson and Irsay are just horrible.

[PromoTheRobot]

#Franchise!

[dave mcbride]

Luck along with Brees and Rivers are perfect examples of why the whole "just need a QB" crowd are dead wrong.

 

You need a complete team and a solid coaching staff along with good fortune or cheating to get ahead in this league.

Rivers had his chance at a SB ring. In 2006, if Marlon Freaking McRee knocks down that 4th down pass by Brady instead of picking it off, they may well have won the SB. People talk about the tuck rule game, but that Pats victory over that 13-3 SD team -- in a game in which SD vastly outplayed them -- is the most galling victory in Brady's entire tenure, in my opinion.

Edited August 17, 2017 by dave mcbride

[GunnerBill]

You know I respect your opinion, but he's better than you claim. He simply hasn't been healthy the last two seasons (really, going back to the season opener against Buffalo in 2015). 2015 was a wash for him - they went 2-5 with him in there and he simply wasn't right (broken rib). The last time he was truly healthy (2014), the team went 11-5 and he had a 40-16 TD/INT ratio. Last year, he had a 31-13 TD/INT ratio and 7.8 ypa. They went 8-7 with him in there, and overall the Colts have been 43-27 with him at the helm.

 

The rest of team sucks. Grigson and Irsay are just horrible.

 

This. All. Of. This. Luck actually played pretty decent last year too for a man injured. The rest of that team is absolutely dire and it isn't just because of Luck's contract. They just have bad football players.... lots of them.... some of them paid handsomely. I moan about the Charles Clay contract a lot but did you see what they paid Jack Doyle? They have been such a badly run franchise for a LONG time now. Even going back to later years Polian. The one thing they did well was when the 2011 season went downhill they kept the ball rolling. Without Luck I am not sure they'd have won more than about 12 games in the last 6 years. Horrible, horrible, horrible roster.

[PolishDave]

Luck along with Brees and Rivers are perfect examples of why the whole "just need a QB" crowd are dead wrong.

 

You need a complete team and a solid coaching staff along with good fortune or cheating to get ahead in this league.

When you're right - you're right.

 

 

You know I respect your opinion, but he's better than you claim. He simply hasn't been healthy the last two seasons (really, going back to the season opener against Buffalo in 2015). 2015 was a wash for him - they went 2-5 with him in there and he simply wasn't right (broken rib). The last time he was truly healthy (2014), the team went 11-5 and he had a 40-16 TD/INT ratio. Last year, he had a 31-13 TD/INT ratio and 7.8 ypa. They went 8-7 with him in there, and overall the Colts have been 43-27 with him at the helm.

 

The rest of team sucks. Grigson and Irsay are just horrible.

 

Last time the Colts were good, they were in the worst division in the NFL. Jags won 3 games all year and the Titans only won 2. I know it takes more than a QB to win, but he hasn't exactly shined year after year in the NFL.

 

When he was coming out of college he was supposed to be the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.

 

He isn't anywhere close to the talent level his predecessor was.

 

IMHO - Luck is over-rated. He is good - no doubt - but over-rated nonetheless. Above average QB. Not top ten. Borderline 10 perhaps.

 

In other words - not good enough to put his team on his back and go win a championship. And that seems to be the standard in quarterbacking that people expect in Buffalo.

[dave mcbride]

When you're right - you're right.

 

 

 

Last time the Colts were good, they were in the worst division in the NFL. Jags won 3 games all year and the Titans only won 2. I know it takes more than a QB to win, but he hasn't exactly shined year after year in the NFL.

 

When he was coming out of college he was supposed to be the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.

 

He isn't anywhere close to the talent level his predecessor was.

 

IMHO - Luck is over-rated. He is good - no doubt - but over-rated nonetheless. Above average QB. Not top ten. Borderline 10 perhaps.

 

In other words - not good enough to put his team on his back and go win a championship. And that seems to be the standard in quarterbacking that people expect in Buffalo.

He was on a trajectory toward elite before the injury issue the last couple of seasons. He was lights out in 2014, and last year he threw more TDs (31 in 15 games) than any Bills QB in franchise history. Statistically, he was very, very good last season.

 

As Gunner mentions above, that franchise has legit 3-13 potential every year without him. They are horrible.

 

PS - He has the same injury Brees had way back when (torn labrum). It can be bad, but obviously people come back from it (Brees).

Edited August 17, 2017 by dave mcbride

[CommonCents]

The only thing between Andrew Luck's bum shoulder and Aaron Donald week 1 is some unidentified replacement for Ryan Kelly. Maybe he "won't be ready" week 1 by design.

Donald's hold out might keep that from happening too.

[Coach Tuesday]

Really? Folks are down on Andrew Luck?

 

I'm starting to think that a good portion of the posters here don't even watch football.

[mannc]

He was on a trajectory toward elite before the injury issue the last couple of seasons. He was lights out in 2014, and last year he threw more TDs (31 in 15 games) than any Bills QB in franchise history. Statistically, he was very, very good last season.

 

As Gunner mentions above, that franchise has legit 3-13 potential every year without him. They are horrible.

 

And yet, in 2015, when Luck was injured, the team went 5-3 with 40-year old backup Matt Hasselback at the helm...

[Jasovon]

Really? Folks are down on Andrew Luck?

 

I'm starting to think that a good portion of the posters here don't even watch football.

Luck is good, however i do not personally but him on the same level as the "old guard" QBs such as Brees and Brady just yet.

[Buffalo Boy]

Man I would kill to be in the AFC south

 

Such ineptitude... usually

Imagine how NE feels in the East

Edited August 17, 2017 by Buffalo Boy

[Coach Tuesday]

Luck is good, however i do not personally but him on the same level as the "old guard" QBs such as Brees and Brady just yet.

 

If a fantasy/expansion draft were held today and all of the players in the NFL were in the pool, Luck would be a top five pick - zero question.

Edited August 17, 2017 by Coach Tuesday

[Buffalo Boy]

Luck along with Brees and Rivers are perfect examples of why the whole "just need a QB" crowd are dead wrong.

 

You need a complete team and a solid coaching staff along with good fortune or cheating to get ahead in this league.

It doesn't hurt though.

Really? Folks are down on Andrew Luck?

 

I'm starting to think that a good portion of the posters here don't even watch football.

People are down on Cam. Compare his record and stats to Luck?

[Jasovon]

 

If a fantasy/expansion draft were held today and all of the players in the NFL were in the pool, Luck would be a top five pick - zero question.

Because he's young and hyped, not because he has actually done anything of note to this point.

[Buffalo716]

Imagine how NE feels in the East

Like Ohio state in the MAC lmao

[HappyDays]

Andrew Luck is awful in the 1st quarter. And throws too many picks. He is far behind where the Colts expected him to be at this point.

 

This is his 1st quarter passer rating since 2013:

2013 - 82.7

2014 - 81.5

2015 - 42.2

2016 67.1

 

And his interception rankings:

2013 - 22nd most

2014 - 6th most

2015 - 12th most (t-3)

2016 - 13th most (t-1)

 

It's funny because people here want a QB that plays his best in the 4th quarter, throws more picks and more TDs, and can hold up a crap defense. Well...

[What a Tuel]

Luck along with Brees and Rivers are perfect examples of why the whole "just need a QB" crowd are dead wrong.

 

You need a complete team and a solid coaching staff along with good fortune or cheating to get ahead in this league.

 

There are people who think we "just need a qb" and that's it, where's our super bowl ring?

 

However, I think the more popular and credible idea is that you don't win without one. So we can build a solid team until our hearts content, but without a solid QB, we will fail far more often than not.

 

Luck and Brees are perfect examples of an organization getting that qb but failing to build a solid team around that QB.

Edited August 17, 2017 by What a Tuel

[Coach Tuesday]

Because he's young and hyped, not because he has actually done anything of note to this point.

 

No, it's because NFL front office execs know a lot more about football than the fools on this message board.

[Alphadawg7]

You know I respect your opinion, but he's better than you claim. He simply hasn't been healthy the last two seasons (really, going back to the season opener against Buffalo in 2015). 2015 was a wash for him - they went 2-5 with him in there and he simply wasn't right (broken rib). The last time he was truly healthy (2014), the team went 11-5 and he had a 40-16 TD/INT ratio. Last year, he had a 31-13 TD/INT ratio and 7.8 ypa. They went 8-7 with him in there, and overall the Colts have been 43-27 with him at the helm.

 

The rest of team sucks. Grigson and Irsay are just horrible.

 

Thanks and you know I totally have the same respect for you too...

 

Let me clarify, I was in no way stating he is a bad QB, and I even said he has the potential to improve as well. But his contract IMO is awful based on what he is giving that franchise because its a cap destroying contract that will prevent the FO from really adding a great team around him. And thus far, all Luck has proven is that he can do is compile regular season stats while playing in the worst division in football during the time he has been in the NFL so far but completely regress in the playoffs against better competition.

 

In 3 playoff years, Lucks per game averages are the following:

 

Regular Season: 270 ypg, 7.14 ypa, Comp % 58.5%, 2.04 TD/g, 1.48 turnovers per game. QB rating of 86.6

Postseason: 304 ypg, 7.03 ypa, Comp % 56.5, 1.5 TD/g, 2.16 turnovers per game, QB rating of QB rating of 69.3

 

In 3 postseasons, he has never had one year where he had equal or more TD's than Interceptions. He is significantly worse in every category mostly except for yards, but that is more a measure of his mistakes forcing them into holes they had to try and fight out of.

 

Now, factor in that those 3 seasons were also his BEST regular seasons and his play has not resembled that level much since then, and you can see why I am critical of him. He is a career 59% completion passer (lower if you add in his postseasons) with a poor career TD to turnover ratio in the regular season and an even worse one in the Postseason. He has 101 regular season total TDs in his 6 year career, to 105 Interceptions and fumbles in the regular season alone. Ratio is worse again if you add in postseason.

 

Honestly, to me, he is a guy who has statistically benefited greatly from 2 critical factors:

 

1. Quantity over Quality: He is a high volume passer, so totals start too look good, even very good, given the volumes he throws at.

2. Quality of opponents: His division has been arguably the weakest in the NFL during his tenure here, especially his first 3 years where they made the playoffs. In more recent years teams like Tenn, Houston, and Jax have become tougher opponents, especially Tenn and Houston, so the division hasn't been a cake walk like it was during his 3 biggest statistical seasons to start his career.

 

As the quality of his opponent increases, not only has the Colts record decreased, but his overall quality of play has decreased, especially in the playoffs. Until this guy becomes a more accurate passer, less turnovers, and can play at a high level agasint better opponents and in the playoffs, I will maintain the stance that he's one of the most over paid people in the league. How many more years are we going to make excuses for him? This is his 7th year.

 

I see four glaring issues...accuracy, turnovers, consistency against better opponents, and his injury issues. That is the last place I would want a cap killing contract to be if I am a GM in the NFL...and as usual, its most often on a QB. Again, Luck can still come out and take his game to another level, I fully acknowledge his talent and potential...but up until now, he has not played close to the value of his contract IMO and I would not want to have that problem if I was the Colts.

 

I mean I have never seen a QB with barely a 1:1 TD to INT/Fumble ratio and under 60% comp rating with a terrible post season track record get so over valued before. Part of it is that he still gets love off his draft hype that helps people over look or validate all the negatives like poor comp%, bad TD to Int/Fumble ratio, struggles against better competition and his injury issues.

Edited August 17, 2017 by Alphadawg7