THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - The Brandon Beane Era Begins

[KellyToughII]

 

 

But I like the moves. I like them because the team may be better this season (and in any case not terribly worse) than 2016, and I like them because the moves should make the team stronger going forward.

 

Most of all I like them because they say that the Bills, for the first time in a long time, have men in charge who have a plan, who are pursuing that plan every day, and who wont be distracted froam the goal. They have men in charge who have the full support, emotional and financial, of the owners. I like that.

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full days hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

 

Amen brother

[Beast]

I bet he's putting on mascara and cutting himself as we speak

LMAO

 

A drama queen at the very least.

[BarleyNY]

I guess I'm an optimist. But what I try to do most of the time is understand why management would do what it did. So I look for reasons that seem logical.That comes off as me sounding like I'm always supporting the team and their decisions. And I generally do support them, because as I think about why they might of done something, I come to understand the logic in their choice.But I actually recognize that some decisions work, and some don't. In this case, for example, I'm not saying that unloading Watkins was without question a good decision. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. But I can see why it fits what they're doing.My views are changing about player personnel. I think the coach is the most important guy on the team, the QB is second, and practically no one else matters. In particular, as much as I love watching them, I think great receivers are pretty much unimportant. Julio Jones hasn't won, Fitzgerald hasn't won. Julian Edelman is far from being in the conversation about great receivers, but he wins. So I've come to think that wideouts are a distraction.

This might help with your optimism:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NFLDrafter/status/896100220341174272

 

I can't figure out how to post a pic of the chart, but it shows Ethan Young's MAVEM calculation for the trade. It's an "analytics" style tool he developed to value trades involving draft picks. In short, the Bills cleaned up on these trades, adding $17.85M in value. It's further proof that Beane and McD are using analytic tools to build this roster.

Edited August 13, 2017 by BarleyNY

[Beast]

I wonder if the reason they didn't get more in a trade is that other teams were also concerned about his injury status. Beane did say he'd been contacted by teams for several months.

I bet he's putting on mascara and cutting himself as we speak

LMAO

 

A drama queen at the very least.

My view is that the GM has two important decisions to make - hire the coach and find a QB. Both are hard, so you can't expect him get it right on the first shot. I give the GM three mistakes - when he's blown the HC call once or twice and the QB choice once or twice, totalling three in all, he's gotta go.In Beane's case, he chose McDermott in the sense that when he came here, he knew he'd be riding McD. If he didn't like McD as a coach, he wouldn't have taken the job. He'll make his first QB decision in a year, when he either signs Taylor to a big deal or drafts a qb. If McD and his first QB fail, I'd give him one more pick each. Either of those fails, he's out. I think in reality I'm talking five years. Continuity is important.As for McD, if the Bills are bad this season, I'm very worried. Those guys could play 500 ball under Rex, and Rex was horrible. If McD's team is worse, as I said, I'm very worried. I give him one more year, and if things don't look a lot better, I might move him.If, on the other hand, the Bills go 8-8 and look decent, I give him at least a couple more years. He's a new HC, and he's going to make mistakes this year.

Rex Ryan built the Bills the way he wanted them. I'm pretty sure McDermott's system is much different than Rex's. To expect McDermott to go .500 with a Rex Ryan built team may be asking a bit too much. I think it is more than obvious Beane and McDermott have their own idea as to what type of players THEY want, hence the hording of draft picks and player transactions.

 

I basically am giving McDermott a mulligan in 2017. I want to reserve judgement until he gets his own guys on this roster. One off-season, with the team up against the cap, certainly isn't enough to bring honest judgement down on him when he is hamstrung with players from a coach that employed a different system.

Edited August 13, 2017 by Binghamton Beast

[Shaw66]

This might help with your optimism:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NFLDrafter/status/896100220341174272

 

I can't figure out how to post a pic of the chart, but it shows Ethan Young's MAVEM calculation for the trade. It's an "analytics" style tool he developed to value trades involving draft picks. In short, the Bills cleaned up on these trades, adding $17.85M in value. It's further proof that Beane and McD are using analytic tools to build this roster.

I don't understand this AT ALL. I don't know how you put a dollar value on a player for purposes of evaluating the player and the trades. These analytics must not consider Watkins' POTENTIAL, which is what we all loved and hated to lose.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I don't understand this AT ALL. I don't know how you put a dollar value on a player for purposes of evaluating the player and the trades. These analytics must not consider Watkins' POTENTIAL, which is what we all loved and hated to lose.

Potential. Reminds me of Norman bates's mother:

 

"Get down there and run the hotel. What do you expect us to live on? Hope?"

[Shaw66]

LMAO

 

A drama queen at the very least. Rex Ryan built the Bills the way he wanted them. I'm pretty sure McDermott's system is much different than Rex's. To expect McDermott to go .500 with a Rex Ryan built team may be asking a bit too much. I think it is more than obvious Beane and McDermott have their own idea as to what type of players THEY want, hence the hording of draft picks and player transactions.

 

I basically am giving McDermott a mulligan in 2017. I want to reserve judgement until he gets his own guys on this roster. One off-season, with the team up against the cap, certainly isn't enough to bring honest judgement down on him when he is hamstrung with players from a coach that employed a different system.

I think that although some players fit a system better than others, football is football, and good players will play well in any system. Better in one system than another, but they still do fine. Look at Kyle Williams - he's played all kinds of systems, and yes, he's more valuable in some than others, but he was an unquestioned starter in every system. Dareus, too. The offensive line. The QB.

 

The running game is largely unchanged, and that's the offense's bread and butter.

 

6-10 is about as low as McD can go when I might be willing to say "Okay, first year, changing system, blah blah." 5-11 is lousy coaching.

 

6-10 I'll be really disappointed. Even 7-9. If McD is the right guy, he should go 8-8. Unless he gets hit with key injuries. If Boldin and Matthews go down, the offense will be in big trouble.

 

If the defense isn't better immediately, I'm going to be disappointed. Everyone says it's a simple, run-to-the-ball defense. There's talent all over the field.

[BarleyNY]

I don't understand this AT ALL. I don't know how you put a dollar value on a player for purposes of evaluating the player and the trades. These analytics must not consider Watkins' POTENTIAL, which is what we all loved and hated to lose.

Watkins' value takes a big hit due to him being in the last year of his contract. I'm not sure how Young valued him, but I'd bet it was a weighted average of his 3 seasons or at least the last two. Maybe even a linear regression that projects some improvement. I get fans' excitement over Watkins' potential - and that's okay for fans to do - but it's not how a GM should calculate a player's value. The best way is to assign probabilities to various realistic outcomes and take the weighted average. That factors in the risks of a certain player.

 

There's going to be a difficult decision teams are going to have to make on Watkins next offseason because of his mix of potential and risk. One GM is going to talk himself into paying Watkins based on the best case scenario. It'll probably be a GM or coach that is under pressure to win immediately and they'll take the risk because it'll either work out and help save their job or they won't be around when the mess needs to be cleaned up anyway.

[Jay_Fixit]

I knew I could find you in a Shaw thread.

We title and sign our threads over here too.

[Beast]

I think that although some players fit a system better than others, football is football, and good players will play well in any system. Better in one system than another, but they still do fine. Look at Kyle Williams - he's played all kinds of systems, and yes, he's more valuable in some than others, but he was an unquestioned starter in every system. Dareus, too. The offensive line. The QB.The running game is largely unchanged, and that's the offense's bread and butter.6-10 is about as low as McD can go when I might be willing to say "Okay, first year, changing system, blah blah." 5-11 is lousy coaching.6-10 I'll be really disappointed. Even 7-9. If McD is the right guy, he should go 8-8. Unless he gets hit with key injuries. If Boldin and Matthews go down, the offense will be in big trouble.If the defense isn't better immediately, I'm going to be disappointed. Everyone says it's a simple, run-to-the-ball defense. There's talent all over the field.

We have already heard, and even you are saying it in this thread, that players (Matthews) fit schemes better than others.

 

You can't have it both ways when traying to make a point.

 

It is one of the reasons why the BIlls wanted the kid from LA. He supposedly plays better zone than Darby.

 

It will take some time to get these players in here.

Edited August 13, 2017 by Binghamton Beast

[WideRightRevenge]

It's a bunch of excuses and apologies. There was NO PLAN. THERE IS NO PLAN. Did he articulate a PLAN yesterday? NO! He said he wasn't planning to trade them! but people approached! He's an opportunist, without a plan.

 

Please look at the Carolina Panthers record since 2003 and the fact that Beane was there for 19 years ... 5 division championships and 2 SB appearances ... THERE IS NO PLAN ... seems somewhat overdramatic ... so the Panthers lucked into their playoff slots without a plan ... Please

[Rubes]

Thanks, Shaw. Not everybody agrees with what you said, but I think everyone appreciates a well-thought-out argument like that.

[Shaw66]

We have already heard, and even you are saying it in this thread, that players (Matthews) fit schemes better than others.

You can't have it both ways when traying to make a point.

It is one of the reasons why the BIlls wanted the kid from LA. He supposedly plays better zone than Darby.

It will take some time to get these players in here.

Not sure what you mean. I did say that some players fit some schemes better than others. My point was that it makes a difference but not a huge difference. In the case of Watkins and Matthews my point was that the difference in talent is ls less critical because some of Taylor's talent is wasted in a possession passing scheme. So Matthews might turn out to be nearly as effective as Watkins in the new scheme.

[Coach Tuesday]

Not sure what you mean. I did say that some players fit some schemes better than others. My point was that it makes a difference but not a huge difference. In the case of Watkins and Matthews my point was that the difference in talent is ls less critical because some of Taylor's talent is wasted in a possession passing scheme. So Matthews might turn out to be nearly as effective as Watkins in the new scheme.

If their plan is a possession passing scheme than they're DOA. Tyrod is at his best playing a sandlot style with deep quick-strike options, which Sammy was perfect for. Trying to stuff this offense into a short-passing, tempo-based possession system is going to be a disaster. It'll be like what Rex did to the defense - negating strengths and requiring a full personnel rebuild.

 

This is so depressing.

[Beast]

If their plan is a possession passing scheme than they're DOA. Tyrod is at his best playing a sandlot style with deep quick-strike options, which Sammy was perfect for. Trying to stuff this offense into a short-passing, tempo-based possession system is going to be a disaster. It'll be like what Rex did to the defense - negating strengths and requiring a full personnel rebuild.

This is so depressing.

Not depressing at all.

 

Either Tyrod adapts and succeeds in this offense or we get a new QB that can.

 

Most of us are already expecting the latter, so no need for depression. And that was before the Watkins trade.

 

What would have been depressing is to see McDermott come in and attempt to emulate Rex Ryan's schemes becuase he had a roster full of Rex Ryan players.

 

The process has begun.

Edited August 13, 2017 by Binghamton Beast

[Coach Tuesday]

Not depressing at all.

 

Either Tyrod adapts and succeeds in this offense or we get a new QB that can.

 

Most of us are already expecting the latter, so no need for depression. And that was before the Watkins trade.

 

What would have been depressing is to see McDermott come in and attempt to emulate Rex Ryan's schemes becuase he had a roster full of Rex Ryan players.

 

The process has begun.

Why not keep what works????!

[Beast]

Not sure what you mean. I did say that some players fit some schemes better than others. My point was that it makes a difference but not a huge difference. In the case of Watkins and Matthews my point was that the difference in talent is ls less critical because some of Taylor's talent is wasted in a possession passing scheme. So Matthews might turn out to be nearly as effective as Watkins in the new scheme.

I think we are on the same page about which way the team is headed but we have different expectations for year one.

[Thunderstealer]

unfortunate the pegulas didn't rebuild right after getting the keys, but we'll just have wait I guess. 2017 isn't our year, might as well do in right.

[Magox]

Why not keep what works????!

What was working?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Why not keep what works????!

What works, exactly?