THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - The Brandon Beane Era Begins

[baskingridgebillsfan]

Nice post. Good logic.

 

But make no mistake: This is a far bigger gamble than keeping Watkins/Darby and it says to the league and fans that this is a throwaway season.

disagree. Signing Watkins is the risk. The team won 7 games without both last year. Plus Rex was a total mess. This team is what it has been and like most teams without a qb. Bad year 6 wins good year 10 wins. Considering the schedule is look rough 7 sounds about right.

[Beast]

Is there anything more exciting then T Mobile to Sammy long or Tyrod avoiding a sack and running for a TD?

Yes.

 

Winning games.

 

Again, when did Taylor become a superstar?

Edited August 12, 2017 by Binghamton Beast

[Crusher]

The OP totes the same company line year after year...regime after regime. More of the same.

 

Trying to emulate the Pats is a nice idea, but it's not something that anyone else has really been able to do...mostly because Belichek is by far and away the best coach in the game, and he has a brilliant QB that runs his system exactly how he wants him to.

 

I am more skeptical of this regime after the recent moves, and I don't believe in dumping a star like Watkins for pennies on the dollar. This wasn't even character over talent...it was draft picks over elite talent, and I don't believe in that.

 

Maybe it works if the Bills tank and get that ever so elusive QB that can do it all behind a defense that McDermott and Beane restructure and rebuild with their own guys, but these are much easier said than done.

 

As always...time will tell. If I had to guess though, I would say this ends up another failed regime that couldn't get the right QB because they won too many games playing a low risk, low reward brand of football that doesn't lose games, but doesn't win many either, so we never get the QB required to make the jump into a true contender.

 

I will as always hope I am wrong and will root for the best.

[stuvian]

We are becoming an organization rather than an assembly of players. I feel bad for guys like Kyle Williams who have given us everything year in year out in that he may not be around for the next upswing. Its clear that Beane and Co. are much more developed in their thinking than DW ever was. We are building long term value rather than trying to get a wild card now so that our contracts will get renewed.

 

Maybe Dennison can engineer a 30 TD season out of TT. If there is a franchise QB in next year's draft we're going to land him.

[Figster]

Yes.

 

Winning games.

 

Again, when did Taylor become a superstar?

I'm the wrong person to ask...

[RoyBatty is alive]

The OP totes the same company line year after year...regime after regime. More of the same.

 

Trying to emulate the Pats is a nice idea, but it's not something that anyone else has really been able to do...mostly because Belichek is by far and away the best coach in the game, and he has a brilliant QB that runs his system exactly how he wants him to.

 

I am more skeptical of this regime after the recent moves, and I don't believe in dumping a star like Watkins for pennies on the dollar. This wasn't even character over talent...it was draft picks over elite talent, and I don't believe in that.

 

Maybe it works if the Bills tank and get that ever so elusive QB that can do it all behind a defense that McDermott and Beane restructure and rebuild with their own guys, but these are much easier said than done.

 

As always...time will tell. If I had to guess though, I would say this ends up another failed regime that couldn't get the right QB because they won too many games playing a low risk, low reward brand of football that doesn't lose games, but doesn't win many either, so we never get the QB required to make the jump into a true contender.

 

I will as always hope I am wrong and will root for the best.

 

 

Ah but unlike in the past, right now the Bills have enough "currency" (2 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds) in terms of picks that realistically the will land a legit POTENTIAL franchise QB, probably the first or second pick in the draft so if they go 2-12 or 7-9 it won't matter much. I assume the Jets get their QB in the #1 slot and we are not far behind.

 

Unlike in the past the Bills appear to have a long term plan, not just patching holes so they can muddle along and go 7-9..

 

Trust me, you are not going to see this regime do a boneheaded trade up to get a WR, QB is the play al the way.

We are becoming an organization rather than an assembly of players. I feel bad for guys like Kyle Williams who have given us everything year in year out in that he may not be around for the next upswing. Its clear that Beane and Co. are much more developed in their thinking than DW ever was. We are building long term value rather than trying to get a wild card now so that our contracts will get renewed.

 

Maybe Dennison can engineer a 30 TD season out of TT. If there is a franchise QB in next year's draft we're going to land him.

Correct analysis here.

[Crusher]

 

 

Ah but unlike in the past, right now the Bills have enough "currency" (2 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds) in terms of picks that realistically the will land a legit POTENTIAL franchise QB, probably the first or second pick in the draft so if they go 2-12 or 7-9 it won't matter much. I assume the Jets get their QB in the #1 slot and we are not far behind.

 

Unlike in the past the Bills appear to have a long term plan, not just patching holes so they can muddle along and go 7-9..

 

Trust me, you are not going to see this regime do a boneheaded trade up to get a WR, QB is the play al the way.

 

Correct analysis here.

It doesn't matter how many picks you have when the top teams in the draft need a QB.

 

This team needs to tank and leapfrog the Jets.

 

TT and his game management offense will net us enough wins to not get our guy...book it.

[RoyBatty is alive]

It doesn't matter how many picks you have when the top teams in the draft need a QB.

 

This team needs to tank and leapfrog the Jets.

 

TT and his game management offense will net us enough wins to not get our guy...book it.

Possibly, the Jets are in an almost shameful tank mode this year, we will win a few games and I dont think it will be because of TT more so it will be new coaching. Cleveland might have their guy in Kizer so the leading worst teams looking for a QB will possibly be the Bills & Jets, maybe the 49ers. This is supposedly a deep QB class of potentially elite QBs.

[Shaw66]

Nice post. Good logic.

 

But make no mistake: This is a far bigger gamble than keeping Watkins/Darby and it says to the league and fans that this is a throwaway season.

I don't think it's such a big gamble. Losing Watkins and Darby means the Bills will lose, at most. One more game than if they'd kept them. And Matthews and Gained will cut into that considerably. Plus I suspect that Watkins wasn't a good fit for the offense. I'm guessing we will see run dominant, possession passing ball co tell offense, and a gifted burner like Sammy is a luxury in that offense. Matthews fits better.

 

Of course, everything is a gamble, and the Bills could go 5-11. However, if that happens, it will be because McD is failing, not because Sammy wasn't in the lineup.

[Charlottebillsfan2]

The OP totes the same company line year after year...regime after regime. More of the same.

 

Trying to emulate the Pats is a nice idea, but it's not something that anyone else has really been able to do...mostly because Belichek is by far and away the best coach in the game, and he has a brilliant QB that runs his system exactly how he wants him to.

 

I am more skeptical of this regime after the recent moves, and I don't believe in dumping a star like Watkins for pennies on the dollar. This wasn't even character over talent...it was draft picks over elite talent, and I don't believe in that.

 

Maybe it works if the Bills tank and get that ever so elusive QB that can do it all behind a defense that McDermott and Beane restructure and rebuild with their own guys, but these are much easier said than done.

 

As always...time will tell. If I had to guess though, I would say this ends up another failed regime that couldn't get the right QB because they won too many games playing a low risk, low reward brand of football that doesn't lose games, but doesn't win many either, so we never get the QB required to make the jump into a true contender.

 

I will as always hope I am wrong and will root for the best.

 

This regime is doing things completely differently then the last 2. they are putting stock in the draft and bringing in the right players for what the coaching staff wants. We actually have options next year instead of being hamstrung because of trading away your picks.

 

Say what you will about Mathews but his stats are better then Sammy's over the last 3 years and we landed a CB that's better suited for a zone scheme. Then you add in a 2nd and 3rd round pick. So I'm confused how this was pennies on the dollar.

I don't think it's such a big gamble. Losing Watkins and Darby means the Bills will lose, at most. One more game than if they'd kept them. And Matthews and Gained will cut into that considerably. Plus I suspect that Watkins wasn't a good fit for the offense. I'm guessing we will see run dominant, possession passing ball co tell offense, and a gifted burner like Sammy is a luxury in that offense. Matthews fits better.

 

Of course, everything is a gamble, and the Bills could go 5-11. However, if that happens, it will be because McD is failing, not because Sammy wasn't in the lineup.

 

Shaw to your point even if this team goes 5-11 we stock piled picks for next years draft. Our worst case scenario on paper no longer looks that bad.

[HappyDays]

Agreed almost entirely Shaw. Only part I disagreed with was this:

 

he also knows that Matthews and Gaines plus the two guys the Bills can draft next year are probably better, collectively, than Watkins and Darby.

Beane is smart enough to know Matthews and Gaines are not better than Watkins and Darby, and 2 unknown prospects that we're taking a year from now shouldn't even factor in.

 

But it was still smart for a different reason. If Beane is pretty sure Watkins and Darby aren't coming back once their rookie deals are up, we might as well recoup something for them instead of renting them for a year and watching them walk. It's a brilliant move that past regimes would never make because they were too afraid to look past the upcoming season. That's how you build a team, looking ahead. Accept the short term loss for the long term gain.

 

Good moves that make me feel optimistic about the future. But now everything rides on the 2018 draft and that's a little scary.

[wiskibreth]

The Clinton political model eh? I bet you are right.

 

I know he's right.

[Shaw66]

 

This regime is doing things completely differently then the last 2. they are putting stock in the draft and bringing in the right players for what the coaching staff wants. We actually have options next year instead of being hamstrung because of trading away your picks.

 

Say what you will about Mathews but his stats are better then Sammy's over the last 3 years and we landed a CB that's better suited for a zone scheme. Then you add in a 2nd and 3rd round pick. So I'm confused how this was pennies on the dollar.

 

 

Shaw to your point even if this team goes 5-11 we stock piled picks for next years draft. Our worst case scenario on paper no longer looks that bad.

Crushed is difficult to respond to. He sounds rational but he's perpetually negative. If you notice, he said stockpiling picks to get a an doesn't work and being mediocre doesn't work. His solution is to tank, even though no team in the history of the league has done that. Well, maybe the Colts.

 

The packers have gotten TWO franchise QBs without tanking. The Psts got theirs withour tanking. Brees went in the second round. Crushers just good at being being negative.

 

And he accused me of being an optimist. My piece was optimistic only when I said I liked what they're doing. I have no idea if it will work. I think the season and the next seasons depend on what kind of HC McDermott is. My view is that he's 50-50 or worse to be any good.

[Figster]

I don't think it's such a big gamble. Losing Watkins and Darby means the Bills will lose, at most. One more game than if they'd kept them. And Matthews and Gained will cut into that considerably. Plus I suspect that Watkins wasn't a good fit for the offense. I'm guessing we will see run dominant, possession passing ball co tell offense, and a gifted burner like Sammy is a luxury in that offense. Matthews fits better.

 

Of course, everything is a gamble, and the Bills could go 5-11. However, if that happens, it will be because McD is failing, not because Sammy wasn't in the lineup.

Taylor has now lost every WR he gained confidence throwing to less then 4 weeks before the season begins so this is cumulative on a QB thats being asked to throw with confidence.

 

 

with all due respect Shaw can we afford the extra loss and still reach the playoffs?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

It's a bunch of excuses and apologies. There was NO PLAN. THERE IS NO PLAN. Did he articulate a PLAN yesterday? NO! He said he wasn't planning to trade them! but people approached! He's an opportunist, without a plan.

You've officially lost your ****.

[JM2009]

It doesn't matter how many picks you have when the top teams in the draft need a QB.

 

This team needs to tank and leapfrog the Jets.

 

TT and his game management offense will net us enough wins to not get our guy...book it.

My goodness I actually agree with this.

[Billzgobowlin]

Shaw great post and I'd say your spot on.

 

What excites me the most is for the first time in a long team it appears that the Bills have a plan. We are going to have several options at addressing the QB position next year.

 

If TT pans out were loaded with picks to build a winner and to your point its going to be with rookie cap friendly contracts.

 

If we have to go in another direction we can make a serious run at either Kirk Cousins or perhaps Jimmy Garopplo. and again the Bills are loaded with Picks to build a team around them.

 

Or this Bills can package their stock pile of picks and try to land Darnold, Rudolph, or Rosen.

 

Dare we say the Bills just won the offseason by setting this team up for the long haul???

Cleveland has stockpiled picks for the past three years. The important thing is what can we do with the assets.

[HappyDays]

Taylor has now lost every WR he gained confidence throwing to less then 4 weeks before the season begins so this is cumulative on a QB thats being asked to throw with confidence.

 

 

with all due respect Shaw can we afford the extra loss and still reach the playoffs?

This is how the deal could end up looking really bad. If the Bills just miss the playoffs and our passing offense is just okay, and Sammy stays healthy all year, there will be real questions about the Bills punting to next year when they could have won NOW.

 

But I also think that scenario is incredibly unlikely.

[Shaw66]

Taylor has now lost every WR he gained confidence throwing to less then 4 weeks before the season begins so this is cumulative on a QB thats being asked to throw with confidence.

 

 

with all due respect Shaw can we afford the extra loss and still reach the playoffs?

I'm not as worried as you because of the offense. Taylor's job is to read and throw. I think its less about communication than the previous offense. It's the receivers job to get to the spot and he has two for receivers, veterans, who can do that. Two guys with size and who catch in traffic. So I think the transition to new receivers will be easier than you say. I may be wrong.

[Billzgobowlin]

Crushed is difficult to respond to. He sounds rational but he's perpetually negative. If you notice, he said stockpiling picks to get a an doesn't work and being mediocre doesn't work. His solution is to tank, even though no team in the history of the league has done that. Well, maybe the Colts.

 

The packers have gotten TWO franchise QBs without tanking. The Psts got theirs withour tanking. Brees went in the second round. Crushers just good at being being negative.

 

And he accused me of being an optimist. My piece was optimistic only when I said I liked what they're doing. I have no idea if it will work. I think the season and the next seasons depend on what kind of HC McDermott is. My view is that he's 50-50 or worse to be any good.

This is a very good point and needs to be highlighted. We will not become a better team with tanking. The only way we get a franchise QB is if our scouting department finds one. You can draft Peyton Manning, Alex Smith or Jamarcus Russell 1st overall. The "best" qb in the class doesn't mean you have your qb.