THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - The Brandon Beane Era Begins

[Shaw66]

The Rockpile Review by Shaw66

 

The Brandon Beane Era Begins

 

Brandon Beane arrived in Buffalo three months ago. He was the new guy in town, replacing the last new guy, who replaced the new guy before him. Over time, each new guy made his mark on the team, and then he left. He made a mark, but he didnt win.

 

So Beane took over in May, and now its his turn to make his mark. He did a few deals, nothing very remarkable. It seemed as though wed have to wait until free agency and the draft in 2018 to get a sense of who this man is and what his team-building strategy looks like. Or so it seemed.

 

Less than a day after an ordinary and uneventful preseason opener, Beane reshaped the 2017 starting lineup and set himself up to build the team that he and Sean McDermott envision.

 

In separate deals, Beane traded Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby and filled their spots in the lineup with quality starters. He also banked second- and third-round picks in the 2018 draft.

 

Yesterday, we could only speculate about how and what Beane and McDermott want to build. Today, its pretty clear.

 

1. They want to build through the draft. Beane confirmed it in his press conference. Why through the draft? Because drafted players cost less than free agents; acquiring less expensive players means more players under the cap with the talent and skills McDermott wants.

 

2. McDermott is confident that system trumps talent, that a lot of good players playing in the right system will beat great players whose talents force the team to adjust to them. He knows Watkins is better than Matthews and Darby is probably better than Gaines, but he also knows that Matthews and Gaines plus the two guys the Bills can draft next year are probably better, collectively, than Watkins and Darby.

 

3. They think they need a true franchise quarterback, not just a good quarterback. Taylor may be a good a quarterback, but he almost certainly isnt a franchise quarterback. Are they done with Taylor? Not necessarily. But the deals put the Bills in position to go after the QB they want if Taylor doesnt make major strides this season. And if Taylor has a good but not great season, dont be surprised if the Bills trade down again in 2018, stockpiling 2019 picks so that they can have one more year to look at Taylor.

 

4. Theyre students of the Belichick way. Belichick trades his top talent rather than pay it. He can afford to pay a GIllislee $4 million because he isnt paying anyone other than a QB $14 million. Beane and McDermott will take a good role player (Matthews) over a better, but costlier star (Watkins). Belichick stockpiles draft picks, often trading down. McDermott traded down in the 2017 draft, instead of trading up for a Watkins. In every practice McDermott puts his players into a particular game situation tells them the situation, tells them how to respond, puts them on the field to practice it. It was reported as innovative, but Belichick has been doing that for years.

 

5. The Pegulas have turned this team over to Beane and McDermott. The deals were bold moves, and Beane must have gone to the Pegulas, if not for their prior approval, at least as a courtesy. A GM that didnt have his owners confidence might have been told to cool it, to hold on to the guy who, at least on paper, was your biggest star. It seems the Pegulas response was its your decision.

 

6. Doug Whaleys approach to his job was to acquire and keep talent. He proudly announced that he had his top six, the highly paid guys who will lead the team: Taylor, Glenn, Watkins, McCoy, Dareus, Gilmore and Hughes). And in truth it wasnt a bad collection of players. But Whaley never articulated, and his acquisitions never revealed, a greater plan about how to build a team. He was hampered by having had a coach (Rex) and maybe another (Marrone), who also didnt have a well-defined strategy. The GMs and coaches, to one extent or another, seemed to think it was enough to get good players and coach em up. McDermott and Beane have a plan; they have an idea of who players fit the plan. (Sounds a bit like Belichick, doesnt it?) Gilmore didnt fit, not at that price (he may be a fit in Belichicks, but not McDermotts). Watkins didnt fit, not at that price. Hughes, Dareus, Glenn, Taylor, McCoy all have gotten the message.

 

7. Beane may be young, but hes in charge. He handled the press conference like a real pro. Straight, on-point answers to some questions, always positive about the players he decided to trade while emphasizing that in return he got players who can play, and flatly and directly declining to answer questions that reveal his future plans.

 

8. Beane may be young, but like Whaley, he isnt afraid. First time GM, one of the youngest in the league; a lot of guys in that position would have backed away from the table and just let 2017 play out with the hand he was dealt. Not Beane.

 

9. Weve heard a lot about how the Bills will be running a variant of the west coast offense, with an emphasis on possession passing and strong running. We saw a lot of short passes in the preseason opener. The acquisitions of Boldin and Matthews reinforce that view. Big targets, possession receivers. The trades scream that the Bills want to be effective, not flashy.

 

I hated to see Sammy go. Hes a special talent, and its so much fun to watch special talent perform for the team I root for. Itll be brutal to watch if he puts up a monster season this year, and he could.

 

But I like the moves. I like them because the team may be better this season (and in any case not terribly worse) than 2016, and I like them because the moves should make the team stronger going forward.

 

Most of all I like them because they say that the Bills, for the first time in a long time, have men in charge who have a plan, who are pursuing that plan every day, and who wont be distracted froam the goal. They have men in charge who have the full support, emotional and financial, of the owners. I like that.

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full days hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

[Coach Tuesday]

Good post. I'm not convinced - but you laid it out nicely.

[Tenhigh]

Nice write up. And look at that, someone spelled "role" correctly!

[SoCal Deek]

Excellent post Shaw

 

The way I see it the new leadership didn't make these changes out of panic. They have a plan as to how they want to move forward. This was an act of commission...not omission. I, for one, have grown exhausted from years of fans worried more about the name on the back of the Jersey they'll buy to wear to a tailgate party than they are about the name of the TEAM on the front of the jersey that they'll be watching in January.

 

I'm going to give them all the benefit of the doubt.

 

Go Bills

[Bill_with_it]

As always Shaw pleasant read. Nothing really to argue with there. Whaley left a mark alright a skid mark.

[CommonCents]

You mentioned them wanting a star QB and replacing what they currently have. Fans that are still blindly supporting this team and it's personnel decisions are missing one major point. IF they don't not move Shady or Tyrod this team can fall into 6-7 wins. Those 4-5 extra wins will waste so much if not all of the draft stock they have built up just to move up for the star QB.

 

If they do have a plan and they are confident about executing their vision then they MUST trade more players away to better position themselves for the QB and the future.

 

As it sits it's a half ass rebuild that will only prolong the losing. If it takes one terrible season and then we have a franshise altering draft I could get behind that, as would many others.

Edited August 12, 2017 by Commonsense

[Fixxxer]

The Bellichick way works because he has Brady and as douchy as Brady may be or seem, he works for the Patriots at a very cap friendly deal. If he wanted to really get paid what he's worth, the Patriots wouldn't have the money to pay 53 players.

[ALF]

Very good write up Shaw66.

 

This is looking more like the Brown's rebuild model. Have to win the lottery and get a franchise QB is the only way for success .

 

Riverboat Ron rubbed off on McD and Beane , time to gamble.

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=riverboat+ron+gif&tbm=isch&imgil=kmISpVlpz48XIM%253A%253BZN3Pu01sqXxOdM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fblacksportsonline.com%25252Fhome%25252F2014%25252F03%25252Fron-rivera-panthers-may-not-need-1-wr%25252Friverboat-ron-rivera%25252F&source=iu&pf=m&fir=kmISpVlpz48XIM%253A%252CZN3Pu01sqXxOdM%252C_&usg=__kzQWuvtd5DdmBpCOzfvuTpuPsSo%3D&biw=1239&bih=594&ved=0ahUKEwiJof3o3NHVAhUk94MKHTk5DEUQyjcIRg&ei=W_iOWcmHE6TujwS58rCoBA#imgrc=kmISpVlpz48XIM:

Edited August 12, 2017 by ALF

[WideRightRevenge]

Great Post .. especially the last part ... about the Rockpile legacy ... that's what's great about the Bills legacy ... as I've promised my son who has never seen a playoff game and is now in high school ... it will be much sweeter when it happens .... it will be worth the wait ... just wasn't exactly thinking it would take this long .. but I like the foresight of the new regime ... short term pain ... knock on wood long term gain.

[Shaw66]

You mentioned them wanting a star QB and replacing what they currently have. Fans that are still blindly supporting this team and it's personnel decisions are missing one major point. IF they don't not move Shady or Tyrod this team can fall into 6-7 wins. Those 4-5 extra wins will waste so much if not all of the draft stock they have built up just to move up for the star QB.

 

If they do have a plan and they are confident about executing their vision then they MUST trade more players away to better position themselves for the QB and the future.

 

As it sits it's a half ass rebuild that will only prolong the losing. If it takes one terrible season and then we have a franshise altering draft I could get behind that, as would many others.

I don't agree about the half-assed rebuild. The Bills are now in a pretty good cap situation going forward. They didn't pay Gilmore and now they don't have to pay Watkins, so they have a manageable number of high-paid guys - Glenn, Hughes, Dareus and McCoy. They can afford just to let those contracts run out. (Doesn't mean they might not unload one or more of them, but they don't have to.)

 

If Taylor somehow makes the big step up, they have enough cap room to sign him. If he doesn't, they'll go after a top rookie QB, and he'll come cheap for several seasons. So there are no worries there.

 

At all the other positions, Beane and McD can make all the changes they want, replacing guys making $5 million or less with other guys making $5 million or less. And all the while they're adding young, inexpensive guys through the draft.

 

The model works IF - and it's a really big IF - the head coach has the talent to build a team that's better than the sum of its parts. The foundation of this strategy is that system trumps talent - in a league where all the teams have more or less equal talent, marginal differences in talent don't matter - marginal differences in system make winners. It's all on McDermott: will his fundamentals-details-family approach win 11-14 games a year?

[row_33]

Great summation as always!

 

This was a shock, fully understood that many fans are very unhappy with it.

 

It's going to take time to build a real contender here, hopefully this 3 year plan (take 6) works better. I believe it will.

[Coach Tuesday]

The model works IF - and it's a really big IF - the head coach has the talent to build a team that's better than the sum of its parts. The foundation of this strategy is that system trumps talent - in a league where all the teams have more or less equal talent, marginal differences in talent don't matter - marginal differences in system make winners. It's all on McDermott: will his fundamentals-details-family approach win 11-14 games a year?

 

And if - IF - the owner has the patience to see it through. We don't know that, yet.

 

In addition to being in a good cap situation going forward, (i) there are a number of good WRs hitting the market next offseason, and (ii) Brady is in the twilight of his career; by the time the 2018 draft picks start producing, Brady might be retired and the Bills may actually have a shot.

[Shaw66]

The Bellichick way works because he has Brady and as douchy as Brady may be or seem, he works for the Patriots at a very cap friendly deal. If he wanted to really get paid what he's worth, the Patriots wouldn't have the money to pay 53 players.

First, I believe that Brady has a handshake side-deal with Kraft that will pay Brady millions after he retires. That would be classic Patriots bending the rules. It isn't written anywhere, but Brady will make public appearances for the team, show up at some games, etc., and Kraft will pay him millions.

 

Second, I don't think Brady's low salary matters that much. If he was getting $20 million instead of $14, or whatever the numbers, it would just mean that Belichick wouldn't have had the money to spend on Gillislee. I really do not believe that Gillislee is or will be the difference between the Pats winning and losing. Belichick ALWAYS finds somebody, because he has a system that requires good, dedicated, smart athletes. There are enough of those around.

[87168]

Very good write up Shaw66.

 

This is looking more like the Brown's rebuild model. Have to win the lottery and get a franchise QB is the only way for success .

 

Riverboat Ron rubbed off on McD and Beane , time to gamble.

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=riverboat+ron+gif&tbm=isch&imgil=kmISpVlpz48XIM%253A%253BZN3Pu01sqXxOdM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fblacksportsonline.com%25252Fhome%25252F2014%25252F03%25252Fron-rivera-panthers-may-not-need-1-wr%25252Friverboat-ron-rivera%25252F&source=iu&pf=m&fir=kmISpVlpz48XIM%253A%252CZN3Pu01sqXxOdM%252C_&usg=__kzQWuvtd5DdmBpCOzfvuTpuPsSo%3D&biw=1239&bih=594&ved=0ahUKEwiJof3o3NHVAhUk94MKHTk5DEUQyjcIRg&ei=W_iOWcmHE6TujwS58rCoBA#imgrc=kmISpVlpz48XIM:

haha but the Browns haven't been successful. people think I high draft pick is going to guarantee a franchise QB hah that's a HUGE gamble and one that doesn't pay off much. just look at recent history.

[row_33]

I don't care about wishing and praying that Brady retires. Bills need to man up and build a real team. The refusal of the Jets/fish/Bills to do anything for the Brady Era has been disgusting. Not one of them.

 

[Shaw66]

And if - IF - the owner has the patience to see it through. We don't know that, yet.

 

In addition to being in a good cap situation going forward, (i) there are a number of good WRs hitting the market next offseason, and (ii) Brady is in the twilight of his career; by the time the 2018 draft picks start producing, Brady might be retired and the Bills may actually have a shot.

So true about the owners. If McDermott succeeds early, everything is fine. If he doesn't, we'll see how much the Pegulas believe in the story he and Beane are telling.

[Charlottebillsfan2]

Shaw great post and I'd say your spot on.

 

What excites me the most is for the first time in a long team it appears that the Bills have a plan. We are going to have several options at addressing the QB position next year.

 

If TT pans out were loaded with picks to build a winner and to your point its going to be with rookie cap friendly contracts.

 

If we have to go in another direction we can make a serious run at either Kirk Cousins or perhaps Jimmy Garopplo. and again the Bills are loaded with Picks to build a team around them.

 

Or this Bills can package their stock pile of picks and try to land Darnold, Rudolph, or Rosen.

 

Dare we say the Bills just won the offseason by setting this team up for the long haul???

[87168]

First, I believe that Brady has a handshake side-deal with Kraft that will pay Brady millions after he retires. That would be classic Patriots bending the rules. It isn't written anywhere, but Brady will make public appearances for the team, show up at some games, etc., and Kraft will pay him millions.

 

Second, I don't think Brady's low salary matters that much. If he was getting $20 million instead of $14, or whatever the numbers, it would just mean that Belichick wouldn't have had the money to spend on Gillislee. I really do not believe that Gillislee is or will be the difference between the Pats winning and losing. Belichick ALWAYS finds somebody, because he has a system that requires good, dedicated, smart athletes. There are enough of those around.

so according to your logic the Bills had 3 "good, dedicated, smart athletes" on their in Hogan, Gills and Gilmore...or else Belichick wouldn't have nabbed them, right? so why did he see this but not the Bills FO? haha i still see people trying to downplay Hogan's contribution to their SB path, and win. it can't work both ways.

Shaw great post and I'd say your spot on.

 

What excites me the most is for the first time in a long team it appears that the Bills have a plan. We are going to have several options at addressing the QB position next year.

 

If TT pans out were loaded with picks to build a winner and to your point its going to be with rookie cap friendly contracts.

 

If we have to go in another direction we can make a serious run at either Kirk Cousins or perhaps Jimmy Garopplo. and again the Bills are loaded with Picks to build a team around them.

 

Or this Bills can package their stock pile of picks and try to land Darnold, Rudolph, or Rosen.

 

Dare we say the Bills just won the offseason by setting this team up for the long haul???

Cousins is a strong possibility, but Jimmy G is a NO. they aren't getting rid of him. he's going to be championship ready and run this league, because he is being developed correctly. something the Bills can't seem to do.

Edited August 12, 2017 by 87168

[row_33]

Bills will have to work a little harder to get the 6 wins now. That's okay.

[Rico]

Nice post Shaw66.