GoBills808 Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 Well, it correlates most directly with winning: https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2012/10/finally-an-effective-way-to-rank-nfl-quarterbacks/264154/ What stat correlated the best with winning? Yards/pass attempt. The second most-important stat was interception percentage. I thought the premise was whether or not Watkins made Taylor a better QB, and you used YPA as proof. I'm saying YPA is a poor measurement of quarterback quality, and that ANY/A is a much better statistic. If you were referring to that formula, then I'd agree with you. Your article agrees, too. Go look at the career YPA list, and then look at the ANY/A list.
thebandit27 Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 To emphasize your original point though: When Sammy was off the field Tyrod and the passing game suffered. When McCoy was off the field.....injury or otherwise.......the running game didn't miss a beat......it was actually MORE efficient and productive wrt scoring......except during the brief Boobie Dixon/Boom Herron/Cierre Wood by committee period. Not saying this to inflame the sensitive McCoy crowd but it is simple fact. Sammy was much less replaceable. Playmakers in the passing game generally are........both teams may end up losing in that trade because as I said in other threads, the Rams very likely can't pay he and Donald both. Agreed. Using YPA to prove how good a WR/QB combo is? How many wins did that equate to? How many playoff appearances? And we're back to this point, huh? So the failure of the last 2 years was on the QB and his favorite WR, both of whom assisted in a top-10 scoring unit, and not on a defense that underachieved horribly in perpetuity?
Magox Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 Some combination thereof, but I lean closer to your first breakdown as opposed to your second one. Overall, I would say while Sammy has been on the field, the reason why his production hasn't been "all that" would primarily have to do 50% QB, 40% Sammy (because he would be playing with what seemed like endless ailments that limited his play and 10% the OC's. I have no doubt that they called plays for him but they should have really almost force TT to throw it his way more.
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 Using YPA to prove how good a WR/QB combo is? How many wins did that equate to? How many playoff appearances? It is actually the only way you can do it ! You are trying to untangle all in the pieces that team stats mix together.
mrags Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 Ag long as finishing in the top-10 in scoring offense qualifies as "didn't do squat", then I agree. Some combination thereof, but I lean closer to your first breakdown as opposed to your second one. Well, it correlates most directly with winning: https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2012/10/finally-an-effective-way-to-rank-nfl-quarterbacks/264154/ What stat correlated the best with winning? Yards/pass attempt. The second most-important stat was interception percentage. winning is the only stat that matters. How did we do? That's right, not good.
thebandit27 Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 I thought the premise was whether or not Watkins made Taylor a better QB, and you used YPA as proof. I'm saying YPA is a poor measurement of quarterback quality, and that ANY/A is a much better statistic. If you were referring to that formula, then I'd agree with you. Your article agrees, too. Go look at the career YPA list, and then look at the ANY/A list. Yes, Tyrod played better football when Watkins was on the field. I haven't tracked his air net per with/without Sammy, so I can't speak to it. If you have, I'd be interested in seeing the numbers. Overall, I would say while Sammy has been on the field, the reason why his production hasn't been "all that" would primarily have to do 50% QB, 40% Sammy (because he would be playing with what seemed like endless ailments that limited his play and 10% the OC's. I have no doubt that they called plays for him but they should have really almost force TT to throw it his way more. Yes, i agree with that wholly. winning is the only stat that matters. How did we do? That's right, not good. As I said above: And we're back to this point, huh? So the failure of the last 2 years was on the QB and his favorite WR, both of whom assisted in a top-10 scoring unit, and not on a defense that underachieved horribly in perpetuity?
GoBills808 Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 Yes, Tyrod played better football when Watkins was on the field. I haven't tracked his air net per with/without Sammy, so I can't speak to it. If you have, I'd be interested in seeing the numbers. It's Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt. And IMO it's a MUCH better stat for saying whether a QB was 'better' or not that YPA. I don't think it's a solid argument that because Taylor had a higher YPA when Watkins was on the field, Watkins made Taylor a better QB.
mrags Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 Yes, Tyrod played better football when Watkins was on the field. I haven't tracked his air net per with/without Sammy, so I can't speak to it. If you have, I'd be interested in seeing the numbers. Yes, i agree with that wholly. As I said above: you say this as if your stats prove that Sammy and Tyrod were good. Or better together. What's the opponents win/loss breakdown, how about others that were injured in the same games. How about who were the opponents injuries. Again, stats can prove anything you want. The fact is we weren't a good team with or without him. the fact is Sammy missed at games due to being hurt. He missed just as much when he was actually on the field but unable to produce a single thing when being used "as a decoy". The fact remains that he is no longer on this team and the fact that we are still obsessed by it is a joke. He is no longer here. If people miss him so much they can buy a Rams jersey and start cheering for the Rams. People need to get a life.
PolishDave Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 you say this as if your stats prove that Sammy and Tyrod were good. Or better together. What's the opponents win/loss breakdown, how about others that were injured in the same games. How about who were the opponents injuries. Again, stats can prove anything you want. The fact is we weren't a good team with or without him. the fact is Sammy missed at games due to being hurt. He missed just as much when he was actually on the field but unable to produce a single thing when being used "as a decoy". The fact remains that he is no longer on this team and the fact that we are still obsessed by it is a joke. He is no longer here. If people miss him so much they can buy a Rams jersey and start cheering for the Rams. People need to get a life. If you are so mad at people discussing Sammy - why are you bothering to chime in on the thread? You are a hypocrite.
thebandit27 Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 It's Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt. And IMO it's a MUCH better stat for saying whether a QB was 'better' or not that YPA. I don't think it's a solid argument that because Taylor had a higher YPA when Watkins was on the field, Watkins made Taylor a better QB. If you have the numbers, I'd be interested in seeing them. What is your argument for the idea that--despite what the passing output would indicate--Watkins' presence didn't improve Taylor's play? you say this as if your stats prove that Sammy and Tyrod were good. Or better together. What's the opponents win/loss breakdown, how about others that were injured in the same games. How about who were the opponents injuries. Again, stats can prove anything you want. The fact is we weren't a good team with or without him. the fact is Sammy missed at games due to being hurt. He missed just as much when he was actually on the field but unable to produce a single thing when being used "as a decoy". The fact remains that he is no longer on this team and the fact that we are still obsessed by it is a joke. He is no longer here. If people miss him so much they can buy a Rams jersey and start cheering for the Rams. People need to get a life. No, we weren't a good team with them. We were a better passing team with Watkins than we were without him; I have no idea why anyone would suggest otherwise. You're as guilty as anyone for continuing to discuss Watkins even though he's been traded. Your outrage toward me for continuing to discuss one of the team's best offensive players of the last 3 years is misplaced. It's a topic of discussion because he hasn't been replaced to many folks' satisfaction. It's the same reason we still talk about QBs non-stop. Also, you probably already know this, but no, Sammy didn't miss anywhere near as much time as he played. I get that you don't like the guy because someone you know told you he could've played last year; fine. You're entitled to your opinion; that doesn't mean that it makes sense to marginalize the difference he made on the field in terms of the QB's statistical output.
BADOLBILZ Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 (edited) Interesting. It must have been damn near miraculous that the Bills were able to go 6-2 without Sammy this past season, you know with him being "much less replaceable" and all. I wouldn't call beating Jacoby Brisset with a broken thumb or Case Keenum......HEALTHY......as miraculous. Watkins wasn't right all season.......it was like Bruce Smith of 1991 playing after a summer microfracture procedure........we knew THEN that those were hard to come back from AT ALL, let alone that quickly.........same as Sammy's foot injury.........but people still wanted to be critical of his effort and toughness. Bills chose not to address the WR problem in the offseason last year.....knowing Sammy was hurt....... and the passing game suffered greatly without him...........big plays in the passing game VANISHED. Edited September 5, 2017 by #BADOL
mrags Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 If you are so mad at people discussing Sammy - why are you bothering to chime in on the thread? You are a hypocrite. im not mad at all. I'm just stating actual facts here. He's. No longer on the team. Why keep obsessing about it. Me on the other hand, I'm obsessing over what is actually still here. Fans that just love to get down and lick the sack of a player that did nothing for us over 3 years besides a few cool catches and a heaping handful of TDs. And the reason why I came to this thread btw was to hope to see some info as to why Gaines was rated so highly this preseason since he was part of the trade. Go back to eating Peirogi
PolishDave Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 (edited) Go back to eating Peirogi It's Pierogi. Get it right. Now I'm hungry. Edited September 5, 2017 by PolishDave
GoBills808 Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 If you have the numbers, I'd be interested in seeing them. What is your argument for the idea that--despite what the passing output would indicate--Watkins' presence didn't improve Taylor's play? I don't know how to get ANY/A for individual games, only seasons. It would be an interesting study. And my argument...I don't really think I want to defend that position. All I was saying is using YPA as evidence Watkins improved Taylor's play is a flawed argument. I'm sure I could dig up a few stats that went in the opposite direction when Watkins was in the lineup, but they would be equally inconclusive as to your premise.
mrags Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 If you have the numbers, I'd be interested in seeing them. What is your argument for the idea that--despite what the passing output would indicate--Watkins' presence didn't improve Taylor's play? No, we weren't a good team with them. We were a better passing team with Watkins than we were without him; I have no idea why anyone would suggest otherwise. You're as guilty as anyone for continuing to discuss Watkins even though he's been traded. Your outrage toward me for continuing to discuss one of the team's best offensive players of the last 3 years is misplaced. It's a topic of discussion because he hasn't been replaced to many folks' satisfaction. It's the same reason we still talk about QBs non-stop. Also, you probably already know this, but no, Sammy didn't miss anywhere near as much time as he played. I get that you don't like the guy because someone you know told you he could've played last year; fine. You're entitled to your opinion; that doesn't mean that it makes sense to marginalize the difference he made on the field in terms of the QB's statistical output. therws multiple reasons I don't like the guy. That was only one of them. It's also not an opinion it is a fact from someone that was on the team at the time. You can believe your OPINION as much as you like. See above as to why I was here talking about Watkins. I a tuay came here to hear some insight on a player that was actually ON the team. I have no outrage for you at all. I think your opinion is silly at best. Calling 900 yards and less than 10 TDs a best offensive weapon is comical though. Any real team would laugh at that output out of their "best offensive weapon". Apparently everyone here forgets about Shady when talking about our best offensive weapon. You can continue what you want. I'm arguing with you and others about why you are bothering to obsess over this player who's no longer here. It won't bring him back and it won't change what he is. Time will tell and we will see what he really is. I'm comfortable with my opinion
Braedenstearns Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 I'm liking this move more! Not hearing much of Sammy lately
PolishDave Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 I'm liking this move more! Not hearing much of Sammy lately We are 3/4 of the way through the season already. And he certainly should be lighting it up by now. What is he waiting for?
mrags Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 (edited) It's Pierogi. Get it right. Now I'm hungry. speaking of. If you haven't gone to Ru's Pierogi, go now. Edited September 5, 2017 by mrags
thebandit27 Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 I don't know how to get ANY/A for individual games, only seasons. It would be an interesting study. And my argument...I don't really think I want to defend that position. All I was saying is using YPA as evidence Watkins improved Taylor's play is a flawed argument. I'm sure I could dig up a few stats that went in the opposite direction when Watkins was in the lineup, but they would be equally inconclusive as to your premise. I think that there's a marked difference in performance when a QB makes a jump from worst-in-the-league in a key indicator like YPA to best-in-the-league based on one WR being in/out of the lineup. therws multiple reasons I don't like the guy. That was only one of them. It's also not an opinion it is a fact from someone that was on the team at the time. You can believe your OPINION as much as you like. See above as to why I was here talking about Watkins. I a tuay came here to hear some insight on a player that was actually ON the team. I have no outrage for you at all. I think your opinion is silly at best. Calling 900 yards and less than 10 TDs a best offensive weapon is comical though. Any real team would laugh at that output out of their "best offensive weapon". Apparently everyone here forgets about Shady when talking about our best offensive weapon. You can continue what you want. I'm arguing with you and others about why you are bothering to obsess over this player who's no longer here. It won't bring him back and it won't change what he is. Time will tell and we will see what he really is. I'm comfortable with my opinion What I said was that your opinion on the guy is based on something that a friend told you, which was an accurate statement by me. Also, if you're going to call my opinion silly, you may as well get it right: I said that Watkins was one of the team's best offensive players of the last 3 years, which is true. He was easily the team's most productive and explosive WR during his time here. And as BADOL says: the offense actually functioned fine with Gillislee and Karlos when Shady went out...the team's YPC average actually improved. With Watkins out, the QB's YPA took a dip. That's the point. And as I said, it's hardly an obsession to talk about how to replace the team's best WR. Some might consider that a relevant topic. You don't. No worries, but it doesn't really make sense to bash folks that do.
SoTier Posted September 5, 2017 Posted September 5, 2017 So the Bills were able to win without him last year and they have the same offensive line? Obviously, you didn't watch how well "the same offensive line" from last year played in the new offensive scheme with new blocking schemes ... or you choose to ignore it. FYI, it wasn't "the same", either, most notably that LT Cordy Glenn only played in the last preseason game and useless veteran Vlad Ducasse pretended to play RG as much as Miller. Oh, and the offense could barely run two consecutive offensive plays without the offensive line incurring a holding penalty or two. The pass pro was rivaled the legendary pass protection put up by Dick Jauron's offensive offenses of a few years ago.
Recommended Posts