Saint Doug Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 After a couple days to digest this, here are my thoughts. The Bills offense will be no worse than they were last year because Watkins wasn't even on the field last year and they did pretty good. Our defense was the reason we didn't make the playoffs, not Sammy's absence. That said, if we kept Sammy, I think it would've been worth the difference between a 2nd and a 3rd comp pick (if we don't sign him). It would've been worth it to see if he could turn it around. My guess is they had no intention, for good or bad, of resigning him next season. Declining the 5th year option supports this. So, I suppose it was best to get what you could, a 2nd rounder. This trade had nothing to do with EJ Gaines. He was a toss in.
Boatdrinks Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 Posted this in the other trade thread, but, in a vacuum, $10 million per year for a guy who will usually be in the line-up and give you about 900 yards and 5-6 TDs is good value. Edit: Also, unsure how Matthews/Jones/Boldin seems like anything worse than an above average top 3 WRs. It's an aging vet with his best days behind him, an unknown rookie that will likely have his ups/ downs, and a good #2 WR.
BUFFALOTONE Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 With respect to the highlighted segment that is the core issue. What do you do with the picks? If they make good picks the rebuild strategy will work. If they don't draft well then this strategy or any roster building strategy will fail. If some of the picks are parlayed into acquiring a legitimate qb prospect then how can anyone complain, especially since this franchise hasn't had a franchise qb for almost a quarter century? That's the crux of this entire thing. Can they draft well. It's a new unproven regime, but it's what we have to lean on. All we can do is hope they put the right people in the right place. It was obvious the disconnect between scouts, front office and whomever wanted lay say or control. Whaley was in over his head from the beginning. Made a few good moves but panicked and was impulsive on others. Can't have that at this level with that big of a spot light.
BillsFan4 Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 He was being facetious Lol. Thanks. it's hard to tell on the internet sometimes... Yeah, I was tying to be nice. But I really didn't see all that much similarity.
JohnBonhamRocks Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 It's an aging vet with his best days behind him, an unknown rookie that will likely have his ups/ downs, and a good #2 WR. An aging vet who averaged 73 catches, over 800 yards, and 5-6 TDs the past 3 years. An unknown rookie who had the most catches than any other college football player in history. If you consider Matthews a WR2, then so is Watkins statistically. They put up the almost the same numbers.
Boatdrinks Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 After a couple days to digest this, here are my thoughts. The Bills offense will be no worse than they were last year because Watkins wasn't even on the field last year and they did pretty good. Our defense was the reason we didn't make the playoffs, not Sammy's absence. That said, if we kept Sammy, I think it would've been worth the difference between a 2nd and a 3rd comp pick (if we don't sign him). It would've been worth it to see if he could turn it around. My guess is they had no intention, for good or bad, of resigning him next season. Declining the 5th year option supports this. So, I suppose it was best to get what you could, a 2nd rounder. This trade had nothing to do with EJ Gaines. He was a toss in. If the bar is last years moribund passing Offense, then yes it should be no worse than that (although none of these WRs were here withTT previously) . That could mean chemistry issues early on . Keeping SW was absolutely worth the payoff for the Bills if he stayed healthy. It would have cost them nothing but a very manageable 5th year salary to retain him for 2 seasons. An awful move for theBills unless they get hugely lucky with that 2nd rounder ( unlikely). Gaines is a throw in player to make it appear a little better for the Bills FO.
26CornerBlitz Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 An aging vet who averaged 73 catches, over 800 yards, and 5-6 TDs the past 3 years. An unknown rookie who had the most catches than any other college football player in history. If you consider Matthews a WR2, then so is Watkins statistically. They put up the almost the same numbers. Not when considering the number of target opportunities and the significant difference in YPC in favor of Sammy.
Boatdrinks Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 (edited) An aging vet who averaged 73 catches, over 800 yards, and 5-6 TDs the past 3 years. An unknown rookie who had the most catches than any other college football player in history. If you consider Matthews a WR2, then so is Watkins statistically. They put up the almost the same numbers. So you think ABs best days are not behind him? This isn't even the SB Boldin with the Ravens back in '13. Watkins YPC was significantly higher than JM if I recall. Matthews isn't going to take the top off a defense. Can't put too much stock in a rookie WR. They often struggle to get off the line in year one. Edited August 13, 2017 by Boatdrinks
oldmanfan Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 It's an aging vet with his best days behind him, an unknown rookie that will likely have his ups/ downs, and a good #2 WR.. And better than last year when Sammy was out
JohnBonhamRocks Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 Not when considering the number of target opportunities and the significant difference in YPC in favor of Sammy. Tough to get targets when you're not playing.
BillsFan4 Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 The only thing I remember is a poster here a month or so ago saying he talked to a player or heard from a player (can't remember) that they felt the offense ran better without Sammy because the QB didn't always feel pressured to target him. Don't shoot the messenger btw - it is just a random post that I remember and it kind of stuck in my head. I guess, if true, it would be kind of like when Megatron left Detroit and - though I don't watch a lot of Lions football - I understand from casually paying attention that some Lions fans felt the offense actually improved because Stafford was just spreading the ball around. Again, I know people are very sensitive about this topic and I'm not saying this to be true, it is just stuff I read and thought it was relevant to the discussion. I remember that too. I had been wanting to bring that up but I couldn't remember where I read it though. Yeah he said a number of Bills players felt the offense opened up more withOUT Sammy in the lineup. Like you said, who knows if it's true. But I could see it TBH. We know Sammy wanted the ball forced to him any time he had 1 on 1 coverage, since he literally said it to the press. I could especially see it being true while Doug Whaley was still here. I am not sure on this but I want to say that I even remember hearing something along those lines before (on Whaley & Sammy getting the ball).
mannc Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 A few questions about the trade: Were there other offers for SW? How long have they been shopping him? Would SW have had a higher trade value if Bills had picked up his 5th year option? (Seems obvious to me.) If so, why wasn't it picked up? Why wasn't SW traded before this year's draft?
NoSaint Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 Edit: Also, unsure how Matthews/Jones/Boldin seems like anything worse than an above average top 3 WRs. Above average?!?
JohnBonhamRocks Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 So you think ABs best days are not behind him? This isn't even the SB Boldin with the Ravens back in '13. Watkins YPC was significantly higher than JM if I recall. Matthews isn't going to take the top off a defense. Can't put too much stock in a rookie WR. They often struggle to get off the line in year one. His best days are certainly behind him. Good thing the range of 500-800 yards and 4-8 TDs is not as good as his best days and still totally possible to reach this year. Matthews and Jones both run in the 4.4s, so while they aren't likely to line up to Goodwin at the Olympics, they can still get down field. Yeah, Watkins has a better YPC, but again that's when he's playing. I won't go so far as to say Jones is a lock for any type of production, but if I had to put too much stock into a rookie WR, then a guy with Jones' sustained production would be my choice.
Saint Doug Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 If the bar is last years moribund passing Offense, then yes it should be no worse than that (although none of these WRs were here withTT previously) . That could mean chemistry issues early on . Keeping SW was absolutely worth the payoff for the Bills if he stayed healthy. It would have cost them nothing but a very manageable 5th year salary to retain him for 2 seasons. An awful move for theBills unless they get hugely lucky with that 2nd rounder ( unlikely). Gaines is a throw in player to make it appear a little better for the Bills FO. The passing offense was offensive, but I still don't think Sammy would've fixed it. We had wide open receivers last year and TT couldn't get them the ball. In this case, and many others, an elite WR isn't going to win you a championship, but an elite QB will.
BringBackOrton Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 Tough to get targets when you're not playing. Jordan Matthews got 2 more targets per game last year and had 4.4 less yards per catch. Watkins is a way better player. Matthews is Stevie Johnson 2.0.
NoSaint Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 I remember that too. I had been wanting to bring that up but I couldn't remember where I read it though. Yeah he said a number of Bills players felt the offense opened up more withOUT Sammy in the lineup. Like you said, who knows if it's true. But I could see it TBH. We know Sammy wanted the ball forced to him any time he had 1 on 1 coverage, since he literally said it to the press. I could especially see it being true while Doug Whaley was still here. I am not sure on this but I want to say that I even remember hearing something along those lines before (on Whaley & Sammy getting the ball). We've seen that a bunch but how many games did we puta heavy focus on Sammy and suffer? It's got to be an incredibly limited number of games he got the targets a #1 should and many of those were good days for the offense
BillsFan4 Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 Shady has said something to Sammy. Haven't seen anyone else but I'm not really looking. I found Shady's quotes to be interesting. This one in particular - "Sammy's one of them guys where, he's been like a superstar his whole life," McCoy said. "He hasn't had a real older mentor that has done more than him that can really give him advice. It's one thing to take advice from older guys that he's probably better than or done more than. But a guy that can really talk about success on the field and off the field, and listen to ... that's something we've been developing even in my short period of time here" Maybe it's just me, but I kind of felt that McCoy was implying that Sammy never had any real interest in listening to or taking advise from any veteran players that were not as talented as he was. Maybe I'm misinterpreting, but that's what I got from it.
JohnBonhamRocks Posted August 13, 2017 Posted August 13, 2017 (edited) Jordan Matthews got 2 more targets per game last year and had 4.4 less yards per catch. Watkins is a way better player. Matthews is Stevie Johnson 2.0. When evaluating players, there is a choice to consider or not consider how their availability impacts their overall value. I choose to consider it. When I do, I see two guys from the same draft class who have averaged the following over their first three years (Matthews vs. Watkins): - 75 vs. 51 catches - 891 vs. 819 yards - 6.3 vs. 5.6 TDs PS: Johnson's best 3 years stretch in Buffalo is better than both Matthews and Watkins. Edited August 13, 2017 by JohnBonhamRocks
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