The Tyrod Taylor Question

[BringBackOrton]

 

Fun Fact: In every game we won in 2016, the defense held the opponent to less than 22 points.

Reddog slams it down with authority! Bring on the Gif's!

Yes. My point is that Orton didn't do anything Tyrod doesn't, but Tyrod does provide things Orton doesn't. In 2014 the D allowed 24+ only 3 times, and the team went 9-4 when they held opponents under 24. In 2015 Opponents scored 24+ 6 times, in 2016 it was 8 times. Since 2015 we're 15-3 when our opponents are held under 24.

Reddog just ethered you with fun facts.

I really wasn't trying to be snarky. I don't think Taylor was the seventh best QB in 2015. I think he was more like the 12th best QB.

 

I said "a reasonable person." Maybe you're a reasonable person having an unreasonable moment, but saying Taylor was the 20th or 25th or worst QB in 2015 is far from reasonable. And it would be equally unreasonable to say that he was the best QB.

 

What's the magic number for you? When does it start becoming "reasonable?"

 

Do you even understand what I'm saying? I'm guessing that your belief is that only "reasonable people" believe Taylor is exactly as good or bad as you believe he is. If that's what you believe, Let's just and what turned out to be an explanation of something that shouldn't have needed to be explained to you.

I don't think someone being "reasonable" about TT and his performance would ever put him at 7. Or 8. Or 9. Or 10.

 

Which is why I challenged what you said.

Edited August 1, 2017 by jmc12290

[B Fan in LA]

When I was a little kid playing backyard football in Binghampton, as a QB,

trying to hit somebody in a crossing route over the middle was a problem.

 

I never solved that problem..............Neither has Tyrod Taylor

 

Running around like a chicken with my head cut off was easy, and fun.

 

But that's not what wins Super Bowls...........apparently.............

[major]

Tyrod is the poor man's Michael Vick

[Crusher]

How do you know? Have you finally done the necessary comparative film study to really make this kind of statement? Or are you just making assumptions?

 

What are the rates on normal NFL QB will miss open receivers versus Taylor? How significant is the difference?

 

I suspect all your doing here is making an assumption.

 

 

Someone brought up and the Benoit and his comments on Taylor missing receivers. It's an issue that Benoit has had with Taylor for a long time. It also seems like it's quoted as gospel.

 

Here are some alternative thoughts from a guy who scrupulously went through the film of every single QB in the NFL from 2016:

 

"Benoit has consistently been one of Taylor's most ardent critics and that was his most damning statement. It's a fair criticism that Taylor will miss open receivers at times. whether the veracity of what Benoit states is true is more debatable."

 

and

 

"There are times when one negative can be so bad that it ruins the rest of the positives in a player's skill set. If that was the case with Taylor it would be fair to focus on his missed plays but it's not."

 

and

 

"in 2016 Taylor did a better job getting off his first read and cycling through his progressions to find the open receivers. That didn't mean he didn't miss receivers, but the good severely overshadowed the bad."

 

and

 

"You could ignore all the context. You could just point to missed throws. It'd to be about as rational as throwing out a four course meal because you're a fork is bent."

 

 

That's from Cian Fahey's QB catalogue for which he watches and breaks down every single snap from every single QB in the NFL.

Benoit has a long record of breaking down the game and years of football watching on Fahey...a self admitted rookie while Benoit is an established, credible veteran with a proven track record.

 

And yet here you are claiming he's wrong and you're guy is right.

 

How come nobody is surprised?

[transplantbillsfan]

Reddog slams it down with authority! Bring on the Gif's!

Reddog just ethered you with fun facts.

Fun fact: Andrew Luck and the colts are 25-0 when the opponent is held to less than 20 points.

 

Good defense = wins

&

Bad defense = losses...

 

for a lot of teams... even ones with good QBs

[transplantbillsfan]

I don't think someone being "reasonable" about TT and his performance would ever put him at 7. Or 8. Or 9. Or 10.

 

Which is why I challenged what you said.

First of all, I'd like to point out that ranking the season is very different from ranking a quarterback. However, you can look at a season and believe that the guy that you think to be the 15th best quarterback had the seventh best season in one specific year.

 

I hope you actually understand that. And if so

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000578287/article/qb-index-ranking-the-starters-from-1-to-32%3fnetworkId=4595&site=.news&zone=story&zoneUrl=url%253Dstory&zoneKeys=s1%253Dstory&env=&pageKeyValues=prtnr%253Daround-the-league%253Bteam%253Dne%253Bteam%253Dmia%253Bteam%253Dchi%253Bteam%253Dla%253Bteam%253Dno%253Bteam%253Dcar%253Bteam%253Dphi%253Bteam%253Datl%253Bteam%253Dind%253Bteam%253Dnyj%253Bteam%253Dwas%253Bteam%253Dnyg%253Bteam%253Dten%253Bteam%253Dtb%253Bteam%253Dmin%253Bteam%253Dsf%253Bteam%253Djax%253Bteam%253Dcin%253Bteam%253Dbuf%253Bteam%253Dhou%253Bteam%253Ddal%253Bteam%253Dgb%253Bteam%253Dden%253Bteam%253Dkc%253Bteam%253Darz%253Bteam%253Dbal%253Bteam%253Dclv%253Bteam%253Doak%253Bteam%253Dpit%253Bteam%253Dsea%253Bteam%253Ddet%253Bteam%253Dlac%253Bconf%253Dafc%253Bconf%253Dnfc%253Bdvsn%253Dace%253Bdvsn%253Dncn%253Bdvsn%253Dncw%253Bdvsn%253Dncs%253Bdvsn%253Dnce%253Bdvsn%253Dacs%253Bdvsn%253Dacn%253Bdvsn%253Dacw%253Bplyr%253Dmatthew_ryan%253Bplyr%253Djoseph_flacco%253Bplyr%253Dmichael_crabtree&p.ct=Around+the+NFL&p.adsm=false&p.tcm=%2523fff&p.bgc1m=%25230964bf&p.bgc2m=%2523053a74&sr=amp

Here he's at 12, where I also have him

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-pffs-2015-nfl-quarterback-rankings

Here he's at 10

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.ibtimes.com/nfl-quarterback-rankings-2015-where-all-32-qbs-rank-after-week-15-2236999%3famp=1

Here he's at 14

 

And then you get into metrics that I actually measure QB play.

 

DYAR he's at 14

 

DVOA he's at 8

 

Passer Rating he's at 8

 

Total Qbr he's at 7

 

 

 

Now, I really want to know, you say you can't even engage in a conversation with someone who thinks Taylor falling in that 7 to 15 (you say not 7, 8, 9, or 10), so where is your magic number? Again, I think he was 12. But I stand by what I sad about the 7-15 comment.

 

Are you really this narrowminded?

[transplantbillsfan]

Benoit has a long record of breaking down the game and years of football watching on Fahey...a self admitted rookie while Benoit is an established, credible veteran with a proven track record.

 

And yet here you are claiming he's wrong and you're guy is right.

 

How come nobody is surprised?

Rookie?

 

Dude, check your facts. Benoit and say he have been covering the NFL scrupulously and seriously for roughly the same amount of time.

 

Fahey's not gospel. No football "expert" or "guru" is. But he's well respected in league circles.

 

 

Boy, I just really get under your skin, don't I?

[Thurman#1]

I have no concerns about 3rd year vs. 7th. He was behind a guy that won a Super Bowl. Jimmy G is in that situation now. He is in year 3 or 4 and not a starter. That doesn't mean he won't improve whenever he gets the chance. You can only play when the chance presents itself.

 

Tyrod has been WAY better and more consistent than Fitz and Keenum. That's not really a fair comparison. It's not a matter of a good game. Matt Flynn has one of the biggest games ever.

 

 

 

Jimmy G is NOT in that situation now where he's even close to his seventh year. He's going into his fourth. He will almost surely have a chance to start somewhere for a year or two or three before his seventh year. As Tyrod did; It's not like Tyrod didn't have a chance. And when Garoppolo does get that chance, again, history shows what it shows for everybody, that it's rarer than volcanic lightning for a guy who becomes a franchise QB to not have already done so by the time he reaches his seventh year.

 

Meaning when Garoppolo gets that chance if he doesn't show franchise-type ability in those first few years, his odds of ever being a franchise guy will drop precipitously.

 

The good ones trapped behind someone use the time to learn and make themselves ready so that when they get that shot they can quickly take advantage.

 

Again, there have been a ton of guys trapped for three or four years who then got their moment. History shows that the ones who can become franchise QBs do it quickly, and we've seen a large enough sample of guys get this chance to know that this is an overwhelming tendency. One guy breaks it out of the many many who had a chance.

 

 

 

I would strongly disagree Tyrod is "WAY" better than Fitz. Better? Yeah. But it's more a matter of different strengths. Fitz is more explosive, continually getting a higher TD percentage, but takes considerably worse care of the ball, especially under pressure. The Amish Rifle is quite a good runner, but not in Tyrod's league. The point is that Fitz had teams thinking that they could maybe make him into a franchise guy. Over and over. Tyrod has too. They're not all that far apart, though I'd certainly take Tyrod over Fitzy.

Edited August 1, 2017 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

 

I would strongly disagree Tyrod is "WAY" better than Fitz. Better? Yeah. But it's more a matter of different strengths. Fitz is more explosive, continually getting a higher TD percentage, but takes considerably worse care of the ball, especially under pressure. The Amish Rifle is quite a good runner, but not in Tyrod's league. The point is that Fitz had teams thinking that they could maybe make him into a franchise guy. Over and over. Tyrod has too. They're not all that far apart, though I'd certainly take Tyrod over Fitzy.

 

Agree. It is Tyrod > Fitz but I do not think the difference is as big as is sometimes made out here. People talk about the defenses that Tyrod has had here.... well they are a hell of a lot better than what Fitz played with as are his weapons.... hello Donald Jones and David Nelson.

[eball]

I just read the article linked on the front page about Tyrod bringing players down to Atlanta to bond and work out. He seems like a pretty good dude. Hope they take the next step forward.

[Thurman#1]

These threads are 570 posts deep because the same 10 people keep posting (I'm one of them). We have a decent starter. Some try to make himboyt to be better than he is and some worse. He's around 20 with a chance to higher and the best we've had in 15 years. If he's good enough remains to be seen. As of today he's not as good as Cam Newton and he's better than Mike Glennon. If we could all ageee on that we can move on.

 

 

I can agree on all of that.

 

Don't see it ending the discussion, though. People want - reasonably - to put a guesstimate on what the odds of success are.

 

And I would argue many on here are far far too hopeful based on history. I'm sure they'd argue the opposite about me.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

When do the games start?

 

All this wheel spinning is making me dizzy.

[Thurman#1]

"Issue with Tyrod Taylor are the throws he doesn’t attempt. Leaves too many open receivers on the field. No stat can show this."

 

This is absolutely the crux of the Tyrod issue. You simply have to go and watch the tape, because the problem with Tyrod is not the plays he makes.... it is the ones he doesn't. The 2 yard gains on a scramble that should have been a 25 yard pass play to a wide open receiver he has not seen.

 

 

*sigh*

 

Except Taylor gains 8 yards per scramble.

 

That's more yards than all but the 5 best QBs in the NFL in YPA when they pass the football.

 

 

Yup. He scrambles very well.

 

Like that scramble for eight yards against Seattle on the final drive. 1:15 left in the game, down by six, first down at the Seattle 23. He has a guy absolutely wide open in the deep middle, uncovered in the end zone and simply doesn't see him. But yeah, he got an eight yard run out of it. That scramble wasn't nothing. But it sure wasn't the best option and we ended up losing the ball on downs.

 

But the play looks great if you just look at yards per scramble.

 

 

 

 

Okay I messed that one up, that's what I get for not checking my work. My point still stands, passer rating (and the other primary stats) will clearly be negatively affected by a QB that doesn't see his open receivers, or hesitates the ball. I mean this is just common sense to me, I don't understand what there is to prove.

 

As for Fahey - did you actually read his article? I'm not even gonna post it here because that will start a whole unrelated debate, but he made a good case. Did you watch every pass Flacco and Kaepernick made over the past 2 seasons because he did.

 

My point isn't about Fahey in particular anyways, just that saying "oh well Benoit is an expert analyst" is silly. Benoit recently put out his list of the 400 best players in football right now. He had Aaron Rodgers as #6 overall and here's what he said:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/mmqb-400-nfl-top-players

 

"Rodgers is always one of the toughest players to reconcile. He's quite possibly the most talented passer in the history of football, and yet no coach in his right mind would ever tell a young quarterback to study this guy. Rodgers' footwork is flawed (or nonexistent, however you want to label a thrower who doesn't set his feet), his field vision can be perplexing and, consequently, he often holds the ball too long. And yet, there probably isn't a quarterback defenses fear more."

 

I mean... really? That's what he sees from Aaron Rodgers? He also ranked Andrew Luck as the 5th best QB - does that sound right to you? Better than Drew Brees? Hmm. How about Eli Manning ranked 8th - ahead of Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton... He even ranked Prescott 17th, behind Wentz who he puts at 16th...

 

Yeah Benoit has some weird opinions about QBs.

 

Was his miss of Vernon Adams any worse than the reality of Goff and Wentz going #1 and #2 overall? Or all the GMs and analysts that missed Prescott? Is it so crazy to think that Vernon Adams IS a better prospect than at least Goff? I mean Goff was really awful last year. I don't immediately call somebody crazy just because they have a wildly different opinion from the common one, because in football the common opinion is wrong more often than not when it comes to QBs.

 

 

I looked at your post and thought, "Gee, those are some bizarre numbers from Benoit. Rodgers as the 6th best player in the league? OK, yeah. Prescott as the 16th best player in the league? What?"

 

The way you expressed some of those was confusing, though maybe it was me, really.

 

He has Rodgers as the 6th best player in the league. Luck as the 30th best player and the 5th best QB, slightly ahead of Brees. That's very reasonable, I think, though it would also be reasonable to have them switched. They're both terrific.

 

He's trying to take the "valuable" out of it so there's no big clump of QBs at the top, to just pick the best players regardless of position. It's impossible to make any list that plenty of people won't disagree with, But I like Eli at 8th best QB. I think he's consistently undervalued. I might have put him at 10th instead but pretty reasonable, IMHO. Prescott 17th? Sounds reasonable to me. I think he's at least partly a result of an incredible group around him that let the Cowboys baby him. I'd agree that Wentz is too high here but maybe not by all that much. I think he's got a really good chance of taking a big leap up next year.

 

Not going to go through the whole thing, but none of the things you pointed out seem to me indefensible at all.

 

To each their own, but without reading much of the article (and yeah, that should be used against me, but I'm not commenting so much on the article and more on just my opinions of the specific placements you questioned) I don't see anything so very far off.

Edited August 1, 2017 by Thurman#1

[BringBackOrton]

First of all, I'd like to point out that ranking the season is very different from ranking a quarterback. However, you can look at a season and believe that the guy that you think to be the 15th best quarterback had the seventh best season in one specific year.

 

I hope you actually understand that. And if so

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000578287/article/qb-index-ranking-the-starters-from-1-to-32%3fnetworkId=4595&site=.news&zone=story&zoneUrl=url%253Dstory&zoneKeys=s1%253Dstory&env=&pageKeyValues=prtnr%253Daround-the-league%253Bteam%253Dne%253Bteam%253Dmia%253Bteam%253Dchi%253Bteam%253Dla%253Bteam%253Dno%253Bteam%253Dcar%253Bteam%253Dphi%253Bteam%253Datl%253Bteam%253Dind%253Bteam%253Dnyj%253Bteam%253Dwas%253Bteam%253Dnyg%253Bteam%253Dten%253Bteam%253Dtb%253Bteam%253Dmin%253Bteam%253Dsf%253Bteam%253Djax%253Bteam%253Dcin%253Bteam%253Dbuf%253Bteam%253Dhou%253Bteam%253Ddal%253Bteam%253Dgb%253Bteam%253Dden%253Bteam%253Dkc%253Bteam%253Darz%253Bteam%253Dbal%253Bteam%253Dclv%253Bteam%253Doak%253Bteam%253Dpit%253Bteam%253Dsea%253Bteam%253Ddet%253Bteam%253Dlac%253Bconf%253Dafc%253Bconf%253Dnfc%253Bdvsn%253Dace%253Bdvsn%253Dncn%253Bdvsn%253Dncw%253Bdvsn%253Dncs%253Bdvsn%253Dnce%253Bdvsn%253Dacs%253Bdvsn%253Dacn%253Bdvsn%253Dacw%253Bplyr%253Dmatthew_ryan%253Bplyr%253Djoseph_flacco%253Bplyr%253Dmichael_crabtree&p.ct=Around+the+NFL&p.adsm=false&p.tcm=%2523fff&p.bgc1m=%25230964bf&p.bgc2m=%2523053a74&sr=amp

Here he's at 12, where I also have him

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-pffs-2015-nfl-quarterback-rankings

Here he's at 10

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.ibtimes.com/nfl-quarterback-rankings-2015-where-all-32-qbs-rank-after-week-15-2236999%3famp=1

Here he's at 14

 

And then you get into metrics that I actually measure QB play.

 

DYAR he's at 14

 

DVOA he's at 8

 

Passer Rating he's at 8

 

Total Qbr he's at 7

 

 

 

Now, I really want to know, you say you can't even engage in a conversation with someone who thinks Taylor falling in that 7 to 15 (you say not 7, 8, 9, or 10), so where is your magic number? Again, I think he was 12. But I stand by what I sad about the 7-15 comment.

 

Are you really this narrowminded?

In 2015? I'd say anywhere from 11-16. Lean closer to 15.

 

I can engage in a conversation, we're just not likely to agree. Which is what I initially said. Do you read the posts responding to yours or just go into Red Alert Taylor mode?

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

 

Jimmy G is NOT in that situation now where he's even close to his seventh year. He's going into his fourth. He will almost surely have a chance to start somewhere for a year or two or three before his seventh year. As Tyrod did; It's not like Tyrod didn't have a chance. And when Garoppolo does get that chance, again, history shows what it shows for everybody, that it's rarer than volcanic lightning for a guy who becomes a franchise QB to not have already done so by the time he reaches his seventh year.

 

Meaning when Garoppolo gets that chance if he doesn't show franchise-type ability in those first few years, his odds of ever being a franchise guy will drop precipitously.

 

The good ones trapped behind someone use the time to learn and make themselves ready so that when they get that shot they can quickly take advantage.

 

Again, there have been a ton of guys trapped for three or four years who then got their moment. History shows that the ones who can become franchise QBs do it quickly, and we've seen a large enough sample of guys get this chance to know that this is an overwhelming tendency. One guy breaks it out of the many many who had a chance.

 

 

 

I would strongly disagree Tyrod is "WAY" better than Fitz. Better? Yeah. But it's more a matter of different strengths. Fitz is more explosive, continually getting a higher TD percentage, but takes considerably worse care of the ball, especially under pressure. The Amish Rifle is quite a good runner, but not in Tyrod's league. The point is that Fitz had teams thinking that they could maybe make him into a franchise guy. Over and over. Tyrod has too. They're not all that far apart, though I'd certainly take Tyrod over Fitzy.

A few things, Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Fitzpatrick have the exact same TD percentage in their careers (4.3%). Add in the rushing TDs and it swings to Tyrod. That's fake news. As for the INTs you are correct. Tyrod is at 1.6% and Fitz is at 3.4%. I always like Fitz but those are the facts.

 

In terms of Jimmy G, he will likely have a shot at a starting job in year 5. That's the exact same situation (as you indicated). If you think that day 1 of the 2018 season he will be close to a finished product I think that you're crazy. Guys all develop on the field. You develop some on the sidelines and more on the field. You're so hung up on the year vs. the game experience. You keep talking about how unlikely it is for a guy at this point to improve but there aren't many examples of a similar career arch. Name 20 guys that didn't get a starting job until year 5? I gave you 2, maybe Gannon is 3 but there aren't a bunch of guys like that. Most guys either started earlier or flamed out earlier.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

To stop the Bills you stop the run. That was the recipe in 2015 and 2016.

 

The Bills need an effective passing game to work. FTR efficient and effective are different.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Reddog slams it down with authority! Bring on the Gif's!

Reddog just ethered you with fun facts.

Yeah he really got me with those facts that I started a topic about back in June. Not sure if you actually followed the discussion, but Orton coming back in games that we should have been ahead in in the first place isn't a big deal to me. But he's probably right. We should really all desire to go back to being the 24th DVOA Pass offense, and the 26th DVOA Offense overall instead of 12th & 9th in '15 and 19th & 10th in '16, because Orton mustered the strength for 3 TDs in 2 games.

[Maury Ballstein]

The whole bet thing is pretty tedious, but Transplant should take him up on it just for the bizarreness which would result. I picture Maury in his man-cave with Game-Pass. Tyrod throws a fifty-yard rainbow to Sammie in the back of the end zone and Maury shrieks "NO" - tearing at his hair. But a few minutes later his mood brightens when a pass bounces off Holmes' hands and is intercepted. Later still he's positively giddy when he switches to the Chicago game and sees Mike throw a score. Being a Bills fan can get pretty strange these days, huh?

Sadly because of the 1st round thing I dont think its just Ryan that is going to be rooting for losses.

 

I will never be able to do that

 

Strawman petty nonsense. I'll never root for them to fail.

 

Cool stories though.

[BringBackOrton]

Yeah he really got me with those facts that I started a topic about back in June. Not sure if you actually followed the discussion, but Orton coming back in games that we should have been ahead in in the first place isn't a big deal to me. But he's probably right. We should really all desire to go back to being the 24th DVOA Pass offense, and the 26th DVOA Offense overall instead of 12th & 9th in '15 and 19th & 10th in '16, because Orton mustered the strength for 3 TDs in 2 games.

Those stats include 4 games of EJM singlehandedly sinking our offense. I enjoyed winning 9 games or more. Let's do that again. DVOA doesn't dictate who makes the postseason.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Those stats include 4 games of EJM singlehandedly sinking our offense. I enjoyed winning 9 games or more. Let's do that again. DVOA doesn't dictate who makes the postseason.

(TTBOMR) the 2013 Offense was ranked 19th and in 2014 with Orton the offense was ranked 26th.

just so you have a better reference point. Look it up if you don't believe me'