The Tyrod Taylor Question

[Royale with Cheese]

 

I still say our best hope for Tyrod is that his best game (by far in my opinion) was his most recent -- the OT loss vs. the Fish. If the light was coming on and he makes strides coming off that game, it would be wonderful.

Yep that would be awesome.

If he can really prove he's the man, we can use our 2 first rounders next year on a linebacker, KW replacement, safety or other needs.

[HappyDays]

 

Benoit doesn't mean "missing" them with throws. He means not seeing them. "Missing" them in the sense of missing that there is a guy streaking open as Tyrod scrambles out of bounds for 2 yards. Not trying to throw to them and being off target.

I know what he means and those stats should still show that. If a QB is not seeing his receivers get open, and it's a real detriment, of course his stats will be worse! You can't cheat passer rating. If a QB was absolutely perfect at seeing open receivers and throwing them the ball he would have a perfect passer rating. If a QB was literally blind he would have a 0.0 passer rating. Tyrod is somewhere in the middle. You can't take one part of his game out of the stats, they're all connected. Maybe he IS missing open receivers on certain plays which brings his overall rating down. But it's not bringing it down all that much, or else he's making up for it with his low turnover numbers. One way or another his passer rating comes away looking decently above average in 2015 and slightly below average in 2016, and DVOA looks about the same.

 

Benoit can see whatever he wants. There are analysts like Cain Fahey that have polar opposite opinions while watching the same film. It's useless to debate which analyst is more credible, you can find someone to support whatever opinion of Tyrod you might have.

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

 

He really does make a lot of plays that others don't. The large majority of which are run plays.

 

He is indeed polarizing.

 

As for the rest of your claims, Tyrod doesn't have a winning record. The Buffalo Bills do in games when Tyrod starts. The other 50 or so players may have had some little bit of credit coming to them for those wins. Wins is a team stat. And I'm not sure who you're talking about who has 47 TDs, but it can't be Tyrod. He has 37 TDs. In 29 starts, I would indeed call that below average. If you're saying he's about 20th then we're in almost exact agreement, and yeah I call that "slightly below average," my words,and I find it hard to imagine how anyone could have an issue with calling 20th out of 32 slightly below average. We totally disagree about Alex Smith, though, I can see.

 

However, as you point out, I do love the way Tyrod protects the ball. His low INT % is a real plus. The coaches must love that, and I certainly respect it.

He has 47 total TDs. To be fair I usually pair that with his total turnovers (which is 14). Even when you factor in fumbles Tyrod is 2nd in the league since 2015 with a TO% of 1.28% (Brady's is 0.94%...). When factoring in rushing, over the same time period, Tyrod is 19th in TDs per Game and TD%. So you'd be correct about being slightly below average. From a TD/TO ratio perspective he's also 2nd in the league though, way behind Brady and a hair above Rodgers.

[Bangarang]

I don't disagree. It's not crazy to me though to see it happen. When you look at where he is compared to other new starters he stacks up nicely. A lot of guys have been brought along slowly and basically asked to "not screw up." He's done a good job of that and leading the offense. Now he needs to become a guy that you say "go win the game." He's shown flashes of that specifically in Seattle and against Miami (despite the result). If Tyrod can be a guy to carry the offense consistently remains to be seen. He's a caretaker now. If he's still a caretaker on New Year's Day there will be a QB taken in round 1.

The thing for me is that most new starters are generally rookies or 2nd year players. So while Tyrod may be entering his 3rd year as a starter, this is his 7th year in the league. The amount of improvement he can make at this point has been my biggest question this whole time.

 

Lots of guys show flashes. Case Keenum has had big games before. We watched Fitz tear is up last year. Flashes are just what they are. If they were anything more than the occasional flash then those guys would still be starting and we wouldn't have restructured Tyrod's deal.

Edited July 31, 2017 by Bangarang

[Royale with Cheese]

I know what he means and those stats should still show that. If a QB is not seeing his receivers get open, and it's a real detriment, of course his stats will be worse! You can't cheat passer rating. If a QB was absolutely perfect at seeing open receivers and throwing them the ball he would have a perfect passer rating. If a QB was literally blind he would have a 0.0 passer rating. Tyrod is somewhere in the middle. You can't take one part of his game out of the stats, they're all connected. Maybe he IS missing open receivers on certain plays which brings his overall rating down. But it's not bringing it down all that much, or else he's making up for it with his low turnover numbers. One way or another his passer rating comes away looking decently above average in 2015 and slightly below average in 2016, and DVOA looks about the same.

 

Benoit can see whatever he wants. There are analysts like Cain Fahey that have polar opposite opinions while watching the same film. It's useless to debate which analyst is more credible, you can find someone to support whatever opinion of Tyrod you might have.

Yes you certainly can cheat "passer rating".

The Charlie Batch article is proof of it.

168 yards and two INTS is not the greatest QB performance of all time.

 

We have been at the bottom of the league two years in a row for a reason....

[Bangarang]

Why the hell would you think that?

Because their numbers and skill sets are pretty similar.

[Kirby Jackson]

The thing for me is that most new starters are generally rookies or 2nd year players. So while Tyrod may be entering his 3rd year as a starter, this is his 7th year in the league. The amount of improvement he can make at this point has been my biggest question this whole time.

 

Lots of guys show flashes. Case Keenum has had big games before. We watched Fitz tear is up last year. Flashes are just what they are. If they were anything more than the occasional flash then those guys would still be starting and we wouldn't have restricted Tyrod's deal.

I have no concerns about 3rd year vs. 7th. He was behind a guy that won a Super Bowl. Jimmy G is in that situation now. He is in year 3 or 4 and not a starter. That doesn't mean he won't improve whenever he gets the chance. You can only play when the chance presents itself.

 

Tyrod has been WAY better and more consistent than Fitz and Keenum. That's not really a fair comparison. It's not a matter of a good game. Matt Flynn has one of the biggest games ever.

Edited July 31, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[transplantbillsfan]

And this is one of Transplants guys that he used to help support his Tyrod argument basically telling you he lacks major passing ability.

 

He obviously can't make reads well, and he fails to anticipate receivers as well as use certain portions of the field.

 

This guy is so limited, it's pathetic. Moving on from him is inevitable.

 

Have you ever seen it before?

 

He didn't have that permission within the offense because he hasn't shown the ability to read the defense and exploit weaknesses.

 

Of course we will hear the usual excuses such as it was Roman's offense and other nonsense, but all the signs point to a limited QB that while possessing great talent, he doesn't possess the QB awareness and intellect at that position.

 

There is literally nothing that disproves this. All the way back to college his issues were making reads and processing the field. The same rings true going into season number seven in the pro's.

 

Expect limited passing with some flash mixed in due to his great physical talent. There will be no significant jump in play, and he can only really go down or maintain average play.

 

Neither is good enough, and it's only a matter of time before he becomes a high end backup. That's where his value lies IMO.

Benoit? One of my guys?

 

Ummm... nope...

 

You're all sorts of confused now.

Edited July 31, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Bangarang]

I have no concerns about 3rd year vs. 7th. He was behind a guy that won a Super Bowl. Jimmy G is in that situation now. He is in year 3 or 4 and not a starter. That doesn't mean he won't improve whenever he gets the chance. You can only play when the chance presents itself.

I don't fault Tyrod for being stuck behind Flacco and I'm not saying he can't or won't improve. But what I do believe is that the guy we've seen the last 2 years is the guy we're going to get.

 

Tyrod has been WAY better and more consistent than Fitz and Keenum. That's not really a fair comparison. It's not a matter of a good game. Matt Flynn has one of the biggest games ever.

I'm not comparing Tyrod to those guys. My point was that a lot of QBs, even the bottom tier scrubs, show flashes. People like to point to the Seahawks and Miami games which were good games but that's not who Tyrod is on a consistent basis. It's not a question as to whether Tyrod CAN be good because we've already seen instances in which he was. The question is how often can we expect him to be that good and up until now it hasn't been often.

[transplantbillsfan]

"Issue with Tyrod Taylor are the throws he doesnt attempt. Leaves too many open receivers on the field. No stat can show this."

 

This is absolutely the crux of the Tyrod issue. You simply have to go and watch the tape, because the problem with Tyrod is not the plays he makes.... it is the ones he doesn't. The 2 yard gains on a scramble that should have been a 25 yard pass play to a wide open receiver he has not seen.

*sigh*

 

Except Taylor gains 8 yards per scramble.

 

That's more yards than all but the 5 best QBs in the NFL in YPA when they pass the football.

[GoBills808]

I know what he means and those stats should still show that. If a QB is not seeing his receivers get open, and it's a real detriment, of course his stats will be worse! You can't cheat passer rating. If a QB was absolutely perfect at seeing open receivers and throwing them the ball he would have a perfect passer rating. If a QB was literally blind he would have a 0.0 passer rating. Tyrod is somewhere in the middle. You can't take one part of his game out of the stats, they're all connected. Maybe he IS missing open receivers on certain plays which brings his overall rating down. But it's not bringing it down all that much, or else he's making up for it with his low turnover numbers. One way or another his passer rating comes away looking decently above average in 2015 and slightly below average in 2016, and DVOA looks about the same.

 

Benoit can see whatever he wants. There are analysts like Cain Fahey that have polar opposite opinions while watching the same film. It's useless to debate which analyst is more credible, you can find someone to support whatever opinion of Tyrod you might have.

You apparently don't understand how passer rating is calculated. A blind QB could go 0/100 and his passer rating still wouldn't be 0.0.

 

And Cian Fahey recently tried to make the case that Kaepernick is a better QB than Flacco, so you have to take him with a grain of salt.

[Kirby Jackson]

I don't fault Tyrod for being stuck behind Flacco and I'm not saying he can't or won't improve. But what I do believe is that the guy we've seen the last 2 years is the guy we're going to get.

 

 

I'm not comparing Tyrod to those guys. My point was that a lot of QBs, even the bottom tier scrubs, show flashes. People like to point to the Seahawks and Miami games which were good games but that's not who Tyrod is on a consistent basis. It's not a question as to whether Tyrod CAN be good because we've already seen instances in which he was. The question is how often can we expect him to be that good and up until now it hasn't been often.

That's fair but he has been far more consistent than those guys too. He's not Geno Smith who would play a great game followed by 4 terrible ones. Tyrod has had a few great games, a couple terrible game and mostly okay games. That's different from Keenum for example. He's played a few great games, a few acceptable games and mostly terrible. Edited July 31, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[HappyDays]

Yes you certainly can cheat "passer rating".

The Charlie Batch article is proof of it.

168 yards and two INTS is not the greatest QB performance of all time.

 

We have been at the bottom of the league two years in a row for a reason....

In a 1-game sample size, sure. Tyrod Taylor had a 100.1 passer rating in the Steelers game last year and I don't think that's a fair representation of how he played. But the more attempts you add in, the less these "cheating" effects will have an impact. You can't cheat passer rating and DVOA on a 15 game sample size, let alone a 29 game sample size.

[Royale with Cheese]

In a 1-game sample size, sure. Tyrod Taylor had a 100.1 passer rating in the Steelers game last year and I don't think that's a fair representation of how he played. But the more attempts you add in, the less these "cheating" effects will have an impact. You can't cheat passer rating and DVOA on a 15 game sample size, let alone a 29 game sample size.

 

I disagree.

 

If we are specifically talking about passing the ball, which I think we are in the last page, Tyrod's passer QBR passing is 22nd last year and 18th the year before. He's top 10 in total QBR which includes running. Derek Carr was 16th in total QBR simply because he doesn't scramble/run....he's 9th in pass. Do you think Tyrod was overall a better QB than Derek Carr last year?

 

And yes, it still can be "cheated" if you make too many safe throws which is what Anthony Lynn stated last year...

If there is a guy wide open on a post route that could go for 20+ but Taylor doesn't see him and runs for 8 yards....that's not looked at as a negative on QBR. Yes 8 yards is good but a 20+ is much better. QBR doesn't factor that in.

 

Passing yards isn't the end all be all but it does measure at least how much you're actually moving the ball through the air. We don't move it very well or haven't in the last 2 years.

[BuffaloHokie13]

You apparently don't understand how passer rating is calculated. A blind QB could go 0/100 and his passer rating still wouldn't be 0.0.

 

And Cian Fahey recently tried to make the case that Kaepernick is a better QB than Flacco, so you have to take him with a grain of salt.

A QB passing 0/100 would have a passer rating of 2.1.

 

I would say last year Kaep had a better year than Flacco. He was better in Yards per Touch, TDs per Game, TD%, and TO%. That's not to say he's a better QB, but imo he had a better year.

[Royale with Cheese]

You apparently don't understand how passer rating is calculated. A blind QB could go 0/100 and his passer rating still wouldn't be 0.0.

 

And Cian Fahey recently tried to make the case that Kaepernick is a better QB than Flacco, so you have to take him with a grain of salt.

 

Fahey also said that Vernon Adams was the best QB prospect coming out of the draft 2 years ago.

Yes, everyone has misses but Adams went undrafted and went to mini camp with both the Seahawks and Redskins, didn't make either roster....that's a really, really bad miss.

 

He's now in the CFL and I believe has looked okay up there.

[Figster]

 

I disagree.

 

If we are specifically talking about passing the ball, which I think we are in the last page, Tyrod's passer QBR passing is 22nd last year and 18th the year before. He's top 10 in total QBR which includes running. Derek Carr was 16th in total QBR simply because he doesn't scramble/run....he's 9th in pass. Do you think Tyrod was overall a better QB than Derek Carr last year?

 

And yes, it still can be "cheated" if you make too many safe throws which is what Anthony Lynn stated last year...

If there is a guy wide open on a post route that could go for 20+ but Taylor doesn't see him and runs for 8 yards....that's not looked at as a negative on QBR. Yes 8 yards is good but a 20+ is much better. QBR doesn't factor that in.

 

Passing yards isn't the end all be all but it does measure at least how much you're actually moving the ball through the air. We don't move it very well or haven't in the last 2 years.

This is a fair and well explained assessment/post in my humble opinion Tee.

 

Coming from one of T T's biggest fans...

[Royale with Cheese]

This is a fair and well explained assessment/post in my humble opinion Tee.

 

Coming from one of T T's biggest fans...

 

If he figures out how to better throw from the pocket....to be even at least above average...he would be a really dangerous QB.

He would be a true double threat and an absolute nightmare to deal with and I would be all for getting him under contract for the long term.

[HappyDays]

You apparently don't understand how passer rating is calculated. A blind QB could go 0/100 and his passer rating still wouldn't be 0.0.

 

And Cian Fahey recently tried to make the case that Kaepernick is a better QB than Flacco, so you have to take him with a grain of salt.

Okay I messed that one up, that's what I get for not checking my work. My point still stands, passer rating (and the other primary stats) will clearly be negatively affected by a QB that doesn't see his open receivers, or hesitates the ball. I mean this is just common sense to me, I don't understand what there is to prove.

 

As for Fahey - did you actually read his article? I'm not even gonna post it here because that will start a whole unrelated debate, but he made a good case. Did you watch every pass Flacco and Kaepernick made over the past 2 seasons because he did.

 

My point isn't about Fahey in particular anyways, just that saying "oh well Benoit is an expert analyst" is silly. Benoit recently put out his list of the 400 best players in football right now. He had Aaron Rodgers as #6 overall and here's what he said:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/mmqb-400-nfl-top-players

 

"Rodgers is always one of the toughest players to reconcile. He's quite possibly the most talented passer in the history of football, and yet no coach in his right mind would ever tell a young quarterback to study this guy. Rodgers' footwork is flawed (or nonexistent, however you want to label a thrower who doesn't set his feet), his field vision can be perplexing and, consequently, he often holds the ball too long. And yet, there probably isn't a quarterback defenses fear more."

 

I mean... really? That's what he sees from Aaron Rodgers? He also ranked Andrew Luck as the 5th best QB - does that sound right to you? Better than Drew Brees? Hmm. How about Eli Manning ranked 8th - ahead of Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton... He even ranked Prescott 17th, behind Wentz who he puts at 16th...

 

Yeah Benoit has some weird opinions about QBs.

 

Fahey also said that Vernon Adams was the best QB prospect coming out of the draft 2 years ago.

Yes, everyone has misses but Adams went undrafted and went to mini camp with both the Seahawks and Redskins, didn't make either roster....that's a really, really bad miss.

 

He's now in the CFL and I believe has looked okay up there.

Was his miss of Vernon Adams any worse than the reality of Goff and Wentz going #1 and #2 overall? Or all the GMs and analysts that missed Prescott? Is it so crazy to think that Vernon Adams IS a better prospect than at least Goff? I mean Goff was really awful last year. I don't immediately call somebody crazy just because they have a wildly different opinion from the common one, because in football the common opinion is wrong more often than not when it comes to QBs.

[aristocrat]

 

I disagree.

 

If we are specifically talking about passing the ball, which I think we are in the last page, Tyrod's passer QBR passing is 22nd last year and 18th the year before. He's top 10 in total QBR which includes running. Derek Carr was 16th in total QBR simply because he doesn't scramble/run....he's 9th in pass. Do you think Tyrod was overall a better QB than Derek Carr last year?

 

And yes, it still can be "cheated" if you make too many safe throws which is what Anthony Lynn stated last year...

If there is a guy wide open on a post route that could go for 20+ but Taylor doesn't see him and runs for 8 yards....that's not looked at as a negative on QBR. Yes 8 yards is good but a 20+ is much better. QBR doesn't factor that in.

 

Passing yards isn't the end all be all but it does measure at least how much you're actually moving the ball through the air. We don't move it very well or haven't in the last 2 years.

 

i didn't realize passing measured how much you move the ball through the air. learn something every day