The Tyrod Taylor Question

[transplantbillsfan]

If Tyrod is Tyrod again and we take a QB in the 1st I will have no complaints.

Is "Tyrod" the 2015 or 2016 "Tyrod"?

[BringBackOrton]

If his play changes in what way?

 

The bills were at the bottom of the NFL and "passing offense" essentially because they pass the ball less than anyone else. And I know above you guys were pointing to examples like the Falcons and chargers and Steelers having a "balanced" attack, but the bills were absolutely an incredibly dominant as a run offense in 2016. The head coach was a ground and pound head coach. The approach was clearly to stick to the ground.

 

There is only one football. The team was an incredibly effective running offense last year. That was a reflection of the offensive approach. The 2016 Falcons were a rarity and having an elite passing and rushing offense. I don't know where Teeflebees was getting his numbers above but the Chargers and Steelers certainly weren't really high in the ranks in terms of both passing and rushing offenses. The Chargers were at the bottom of the league is rushing, actually.

 

There is only one football. There are only so many snaps in a game. What you want is much more passing. Shady is one of the best backs in the NFL. It's kind a hard not to give him the ball, isn't it?

 

I think Taylor is going to get more passes this year and we are going to see what he does with 30 to 35 passing attempts per game. But it's really just in the offensive approach.

Sort of but not really. They had 3 less attempts than the Dolphins, but the Phins had 16 less sacks, so it's feasible that we had more passing plays called.

 

And even if you say no, those 3 extra attempts translated to 30 more completions, 10 more TD's, 2.1 increased in TD%, 95.5 passer rating (compared to the Bills offense 86.7), a .9 yard more Y/A, a full yard more NY/A, and an extra 20 passing YPG.

 

TT ain't gonna put up Brees numbers. But to be the man, you gotta beat the man. And that man is Ryan Tannehill and Matt Moore.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/#all_passing

Edited July 29, 2017 by jmc12290

[Kirby Jackson]

If Tyrod is Tyrod again and we take a QB in the 1st I will have no complaints.

I agree. This is a make or break year for him.

 

I do think that if we draft a QB in the 1st we should deal Tyrod though instead of an outright release. I guess that the "best case scenario" there would be that a contending team loses their QB. Bradford got a 1st and more last year. I know that his numbers were decent but I would rather have Taylor. They are in a similar tier to me but I think Tyrod can make more plays.

 

Either way, TT nets you a pick and maybe more. Arizona is intriguing to me. Maybe Mathieu and a 3rd or something? I have a feeling that Palmer falls off the cliff this year and walks away.

Sort of but not really. They had 3 less attempts than the Dolphins, but the Phins had 16 less sacks, so it's feasible that we had more passing plays called.

 

And even if you say no, those 3 extra attempts translated to 30 more completions, 10 more TD's, 2.1 increased in TD%, 95.5 passer rating (compared to the Bills offense 86.7), a .9 yard more Y/A, a full yard more NY/A, and an extra 20 passing YPG.

 

TT ain't gonna put up Brees numbers. But to be the man, you gotta beat the man. And that man is Ryan Tannehill and Matt Moore.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/#all_passing

The sack argument with Tyrod is absolutely a 2 way argument. He holds the ball leading to sacks that others don't take. He makes guys Miss and makes plays that other guys don't make. We'd all like to see the sack numbers cut but not in exchange for that playmaking. That's his greatest asset. Edited July 29, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[transplantbillsfan]

Sort of but not really. They had 3 less attempts than the Dolphins, but the Phins had 16 less sacks, so it's feasible that we had more passing plays called.

 

And even if you say no, those 3 extra attempts translated to 30 more completions, 10 more TD's, 2.1 increased in TD%, 95.5 passer rating (compared to the Bills offense 86.7), a .9 yard more Y/A, a full yard more NY/A, and an extra 20 passing YPG.

 

TT ain't gonna put up Brees numbers. But to be the man, you gotta beat the man. And that man is Ryan Tannehill and Matt Moore.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/#all_passing

Wait. If you want to include sacks in this discussion, that's fine. Those were passing plays, you're right. Let's include the other passing plays: the scrambles. The plays where the QB is pressured, escapes pressure, and gains positive yardage instead of negative yardage.

 

Happydays recently posted a football outsiders study that examined all passing plays. Including sacks and scrambles. On such plays, the bills had of the second highest DVOA in the NFL, behind only Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.

 

I can tell you from having done my own scrupulous research, Taylor gained 8 yards per scramble in 2016. Those are passing plays. I agree. Just like sacks are. The problem is that people want to talk about sacks as the negative without talking about scrambles as the positive. And when Taylor scrambles, he gained more yards per scramble and all but the top five QBs in the NFL in the category of YPA.

 

What you're doing here is cherry picking.

Edited July 29, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[BringBackOrton]

Wait. If you want to include sacks in this discussion, that's fine. Those were passing place, you're right. Let's include the other passing place: the scrambles. The place where the QB is pressured, escapes pressure, and gains positive yardage instead of negative yardage.

 

Happydays recently posted a football outsiders study that examined all passing place. Including sex and scrambles. On such plays, the bills had of the second highest DVOA in the NFL, behind only Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.

 

I can tell you from having done my own scrupulous research, Taylor gained 8 yards per scramble in 2016. Those are passing plays. I agree. Just like sex are. The problem is that people want to talk about sax as the negative without talking about scrambles as the positive. And when Taylor scrambles, she gained more yards per scramble and all but the top five QBs in the NFL in the category of YPA.

 

What you're doing here is cherry picking.

Cherry picking? I listed almost every passing stat. We ARE discussing his passing stats.

 

I agree the scrambles do something to offset his poor passing numbers. But they don't wash out his deficiencies either.

 

TT is expected to play efficient football. In 2016, he wasn't really. Outside of INT's.

 

I understand att/game are going to be low in this offense. But instead of seeing 32 in attempts/31st in yards/31st in TD's/26th in efficiency, I want to at least see 32 attempts/26th in yards/20th in TD's/15th in efficiency. That's not unreasonable if he's gonna stick around, IMO.

Edited July 29, 2017 by jmc12290

[Big Gun]

Is "Tyrod" the 2015 or 2016 "Tyrod"?

Doesn't matter, neither were good enough.

[BringBackOrton]

I agree. This is a make or break year for him.

 

I do think that if we draft a QB in the 1st we should deal Tyrod though instead of an outright release. I guess that the "best case scenario" there would be that a contending team loses their QB. Bradford got a 1st and more last year. I know that his numbers were decent but I would rather have Taylor. They are in a similar tier to me but I think Tyrod can make more plays.

 

Either way, TT nets you a pick and maybe more. Arizona is intriguing to me. Maybe Mathieu and a 3rd or something? I have a feeling that Palmer falls off the cliff this year and walks away.

The sack argument with Tyrod is absolutely a 2 way argument. He holds the ball leading to sacks that others don't take. He makes guys Miss and makes plays that other guys don't make. We'd all like to see the sack numbers cut but not in exchange for that playmaking. That's his greatest asset.

I don't disagree. It cuts both ways, but it's hard to quantify X positive plays outweighing X negative plays and viceversa.

 

I was discussing sacks in the context of the Bills "passing less than everybody else." Looking at the sack and scramble numbers, it's arguable we were not #32 in pass plays called.

[transplantbillsfan]

Cherry picking? I listed almost every passing stat. We ARE discussing his passing stats.

 

I agree the scrambles do something to offset his poor passing numbers. But they don't wash out his deficiencies either.

 

TT is expected to play efficient football. In 2016, he wasn't really. Outside of INT's.

 

I understand att/game are going to be low in this offense. But instead of seeing 32 in attempts/31st in yards/31st in TD's/26th in efficiency, I want to at least see 32 attempts/26th in yards/20th in TD's/15th in efficiency. That's not unreasonable if he's gonna stick around, IMO.

You included sacks in your discussion as a negative without also (and fairly) including the positive alternative, which are the scrambles.

 

That's what I'd call cherry picking.

Doesn't matter, neither were good enough.

If we get the Tyrod from 2015 and he passes for 30 times a game rather than 27 and maintains the same efficiency on every play as he did in 2015, it's good enough. At that point, the rest of the team needs to hold up their end of the bargain and the bills are a playoff team for sure.

Edited July 29, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[BringBackOrton]

You included sacks in your discussion as a negative without also (and fairly) including the positive alternative, which are the scrambles.

 

That's what I'd call cherry picking.

 

If we get the Tyrod from 2015 and he passes for 30 times a game rather than 27 and maintains the same efficiency on every play as he did in 2015, it's good enough. At that point, the rest of the team needs to hold up their end of the bargain and the bills are a playoff team for sure.

I noted them in the next post.

 

Leaving out one point and including 10 others isn't "cherry-picking."

Edited July 29, 2017 by jmc12290

[HappyDays]

it's hard to quantify X positive plays outweighing X negative plays and viceversa.

Football Outsiders quantified it.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016

 

They ran the data on how offenses produced when their QBs were under pressure, and found the Bills offense was 2nd best in the league in those situations. That includes all throws under pressure, sacks, and scrambles. Tyrod's positive plays in these situations do NOT outweigh the negative - our total DVOA is still negative - but they makes up for the negative plays more than any QB who isn't Aaron Rodgers.

 

And Tyrod faced more pressure than anyone in the league other than Jared Goff, out of 34 qualifying QBs. The best thing the offense can do to improve in 2017 is having Tyrod face less pressure. Part of that will be him getting rid of the ball faster too. But I remember too many plays last year where a DE plowed right through Mills and Tyrod didn't even have a chance.

[Maury Ballstein]

Another month and change of excuses for the 30th ranked passing offense.

[transplantbillsfan]

I don't disagree. It cuts both ways, but it's hard to quantify X positive plays outweighing X negative plays and viceversa.

 

I was discussing sacks in the context of the Bills "passing less than everybody else." Looking at the sack and scramble numbers, it's arguable we were not #32 in pass plays called.

The bills called 35 passing please per game with Tyrod Taylor at the helm and 2016.

 

29.1 attempts per game

 

42 sacks (192 yards)

 

47 scrambles (371 yards)

 

He lost 4.6 yards per play on every sack.

 

He gained 7.9 yards per playing on every scramble. He also scored four of his six touchdowns on scrambles.

 

Since last off-season I have been a proponent of a new stat: YPD (Yards Per Dropback)

 

I haven't done this for any QBs in 2016, but I did look at Newton compared to Wilson compared to Taylor in 2015. And their numbers looked like this:

 

Tyrod Taylor

6.9 YPD

33.1 DPG

52.1% passing plays for the offense

 

Cam Newton

6.8 YPD

34.5 DPG

51.8% passing plays for the offense

 

Russel Wilson

7.1 YPD

36.3 DPG

56.5% passing plays for the offense

 

 

Hope that helps to quantify had a bed for you

Edited July 29, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Kirby Jackson]

I don't disagree. It cuts both ways, but it's hard to quantify X positive plays outweighing X negative plays and viceversa.

 

I was discussing sacks in the context of the Bills "passing less than everybody else." Looking at the sack and scramble numbers, it's arguable we were not #32 in pass plays called.

I'd agree with all of that.

[leonbus23]

How can you be above average, yet not the 15th best QB or higher in the NFL in a league with 32 starters?

 

 

I'll hang up and listen.

It's simple. There is a distinction between an above average quarterback based on some kind of standardized criteria and a quarterback who is above average based on being ranked above 15 among the 32 quarterbacks.

 

In other words, there can be 32 above average quarterbacks based on some standardized criteria if they are all assessed above what is considered "average."

 

I didn't read all the pages. So, someone may have already explained this to you.

Edited July 29, 2017 by leonbus23

[Bangarang]

If his play changes in what way?

 

The bills were at the bottom of the NFL and "passing offense" essentially because they pass the ball less than anyone else.

There's a reason why we passed the ball less than anyone else. Most of it has to do with having an elite rushing attack. The other part is having a QB who is not all that great at throwing from the pocket.

 

I know you like to get super defensive when people question Tyrod and his ability so I'm not really interested in this super long and pointless back and forth with you.

 

You're probably smart enough and watch enough football to know what really good QB play looks like. We don't have that and until we do I want to keep looking for potential upgrades.

 

I think he's adequate for now but his play does not make me content with the position long term.

[transplantbillsfan]

There's a reason why we passed the ball less than anyone else. Most of it has to do with having an elite rushing attack. The other part is having a QB who is not all that great at throwing from the pocket.

 

I know you like to get super defensive when people question Tyrod and his ability so I'm not really interested in this super long and pointless back and forth with you.

 

You're probably smart enough and watch enough football to know what really good QB play looks like. We don't have that and until we do I want to keep looking for potential upgrades.

 

I think he's adequate for now but his play does not make me content with the position long term.

First of all, it's not about questioning him as a QB, it's about defining him. I still have questions about him, which is why I'm glad he has another year to try to define himself.

 

I'm glad you acknowledge our low passing attempts was essentially because of an elite running game.

 

I agree.

 

As to the end of your post I just want you to answer a very simple "yes" or "no" to the following question:

 

If 2015-2016 were Taylor's rookie and sophomore years and he played as he did, would you still feel "bleh" about him?

[BringBackOrton]

First of all, it's not about questioning him as a QB, it's about defining him. I still have questions about him, which is why I'm glad he has another year to try to define himself.

 

I'm glad you acknowledge our low passing attempts was essentially because of an elite running game.

 

I agree.

 

As to the end of your post I just want you to answer a very simple "yes" or "no" to the following question:

 

If 2015-2016 were Taylor's rookie and sophomore years and he played as he did, would you still feel "bleh" about him?

Yes. I saw no improvement from 15-16. A QB who isn't trending up is a bad sign.

[BuffaloHokie13]

If Tyrod is Tyrod again and we take a QB in the 1st I will have no complaints.

That's what needs to happen regardless. And then the pick needs to live up to the hype and take Tyrod's spot.

[John from Riverside]

Yes. I saw no improvement from 15-16. A QB who isn't trending up is a bad sign.

A qb that is trending down is actually even worse.....

 

but....it actually looks fairly steady and the numbers go up and down depending on who he is throwing to

[papazoid]

fix RT

 

TT will play better than Alternate Pro Bowl level