chris heff Posted July 23, 2017 Posted July 23, 2017 Steve Smith to Baltimore comes to mind as an example of a vet who added exactly what the team needed at the time - a tough veteran presence who could make the big time catches when needed. Even though past his prime as a #1 WR, he could still play an important role in the offense. James Lofton
nucci Posted July 23, 2017 Posted July 23, 2017 People are funny. Folks have no trouble trusting that he'll miss significant time despite the fact that he started 29 of a possible 32 games prior to last season. How about we apply "I'll believe it when I see it" to ALL scenarios, since it's all speculation at this point? and can we stop the "show me the baby" comment? He's always hurt/injured. How man games do you think he will start 100 % healthy this year? 16? How many players are 100% healthy for all 16 games in the NFL?
K-9 Posted July 23, 2017 Posted July 23, 2017 People who call Sammy fragile simply don't recognize context when it comes to relative availability of WRs As I've said all along, if he's targeted like the #1 WR that he is, he'll be extremely productive. Agree entirely. But targeting him is one thing; getting the ball to him is another thing entirely. TT needs to trust him implicitly.
YoloinOhio Posted July 23, 2017 Author Posted July 23, 2017 Who's @shannshep4 ?Shannon Shepard from Channel 4
thebandit27 Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 He's always hurt/injured. How man games do you think he will start 100 % healthy this year? 16? I have no idea, because I can't see the future As to the idea that he's not going to stay healthy for 16 games, well, I'll believe it when I see it.
Rocky Landing Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 Just for a little perspective: Odell Beckham Jr, while only missing one game, has sustained injury throughout his career. http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/odell-beckham-jr/6942 It's unfortunate that Sammy's foot injury has been the cause of so many missed games, but if he is truly "100%" recovered from it, then there's no reason to believe that he'll be any more injured than any other #1WR (which is plenty!) We've already seen him play through bruised ribs, which are painful as hell!
Billsmovinup Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 People who call Sammy fragile simply don't recognize context when it comes to relative availability of WRs As I've said all along, if he's targeted like the #1 WR that he is, he'll be extremely productive. Ah yes. The context. That explains everything. Thanks for clearing that up. Hes clearly a hall of famer.
nucci Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 I have no idea, because I can't see the future As to the idea that he's not going to stay healthy for 16 games, well, I'll believe it when I see it. Nice Ah yes. The context. That explains everything. Thanks for clearing that up. Hes clearly a hall of famer. Not what he's saying
thebandit27 Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 Ah yes. The context. That explains everything. Thanks for clearing that up. Hes clearly a hall of famer. Your response typifies some fans' relative inability to remove emotion from the discussion and look only at the facts. Everyone gets nicked up and plays though injuries. Sammy's availability ratio is hardly out of whack for a #1 WR. Just look back at guys like Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones through 3 seasons. And yes, when he's been given the same targets as other #1 WRs, he out-performed them. Again, that's a fact, not an opinion. Two seasons ago, Sammy had a mere 96 targets in 13 starts. Julio, by contrast, had 200 in 15 starts. The biggest limitation on Sammy has been the team's reluctance to make him the primary focus of the passing game.
GunnerBill Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 Yep. That KC game two years ago is a prime example. Sammy got the balls thrown his way in the first half and went to work. For some reason they stopped throwing his way in the second half of the game. That was infuriating. I remember press reports saying Peters "shut Watkins down" in the 2nd half..... they never threw him the damn ball..... he was not beating them first half by being wide open he was beating them by fighting for the ball.
thebandit27 Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 That was infuriating. I remember press reports saying Peters "shut Watkins down" in the 2nd half..... they never threw him the damn ball..... he was not beating them first half by being wide open he was beating them by fighting for the ball. Yep...he absolutely abused Sean Smith and Eric Berry (and Ron Parker for that matter) time and again. If anything, Peters shut down Tyrod in the 2nd half. Playing press with obvious safety help totally moved Tyrod off of his willingness to chuck it up for Sammy.
Billsmovinup Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 Your response typifies some fans' relative inability to remove emotion from the discussion and look only at the facts. Everyone gets nicked up and plays though injuries. Sammy's availability ratio is hardly out of whack for a #1 WR. Just look back at guys like Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones through 3 seasons. And yes, when he's been given the same targets as other #1 WRs, he out-performed them. Again, that's a fact, not an opinion. Two seasons ago, Sammy had a mere 96 targets in 13 starts. Julio, by contrast, had 200 in 15 starts. The biggest limitation on Sammy has been the team's reluctance to make him the primary focus of the passing game. Right. Sammy has zero accountability for being far less productive than Mike Evans and Odell Beckham, two players drafted after him, and the Bills have absolutely no concerns given that they didnt execute his fifth year option. Now you can tell me that I have an agenda or that I just dont know the game.
LABILLBACKER Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 Meh...I'm not holding my breath with this guy...he might be 100% now but give it a few days...I gotta see results before I believe anything about Sammy's health. Exactly....call me when he plays 14+ games.. .
thebandit27 Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 (edited) Right. Sammy has zero accountability for being far less productive than Mike Evans and Odell Beckham, two players drafted after him, and the Bills have absolutely no concerns given that they didnt execute his fifth year option. Now you can tell me that I have an agenda or that I just dont know the game. I'm not going to definitively tell you either of those things...I will, however, tell you that either one of those things is true, or you simply cannot understand a very simple point that's being made. I'll give it one last shot... What I've said, repeatedly, in this thread and others, is that the biggest limiting factor in Sammy's relative lack of productivity is number of targets when he's on the field. If you can somehow interpret that to say that Sammy has zero accountability, well, that's your issue, since what I've also said repeatedly is that his lack of availability comes at a distant second. Someone that knows the game well would already understand that the number one predictor of WR productivity is quantity of targets; no other statistical correlation comes even close to the relevance of targets to receptions/yards. I've presented the data on this forum more times than I can count. If you'd like to argue that, then go for it. My point is that there's absolutely no excuse for Sammy averaging less than 8 targets per game for his career when OBJ and Mike Evans average over 10. The point becomes even more absurd in light of the consideration that in Watkins' only stretch of games where he did receive similar targets (the final 9 games of the 2015 season), he was the most productive WR in the NFL. Now, if you don't mind, try arguing the facts on merit as opposed to getting emotional and subsequently mis-representing the argument. Edited July 24, 2017 by thebandit27
Billsmovinup Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 (edited) I'm not going to definitively tell you either of those things...I will, however, tell you that either one of those things is true, or you simply cannot understand a very simple point that's being made. I'll give it one last shot... What I've said, repeatedly, in this thread and others, is that the biggest limiting factor in Sammy's relative lack of productivity is number of targets when he's on the field. If you can somehow interpret that to say that Sammy has zero accountability, well, that's your issue, since what I've also said repeatedly is that his lack of availability comes at a distant second. Someone that knows the game well would already understand that the number one predictor of WR productivity is quantity of targets; no other statistical correlation comes even close to the relevance of targets to receptions/yards. I've presented the data on this forum more times than I can count. If you'd like to argue that, then go for it. My point is that there's absolutely no excuse for Sammy averaging less than 8 targets per game for his career when OBJ and Mike Evans average over 10. The point becomes even more absurd in light of the consideration that in Watkins' only stretch of games where he did receive similar targets (the final 9 games of the 2015 season), he was the most productive WR in the NFL. Now, if you don't mind, try arguing the facts on merit as opposed to getting emotional and subsequently mis-representing the argument. Right. The facts. As long as someone agrees with what your saying he/she is sticking to the facts. Otherwise its just an emotional reaction. I watched Andre Reed get his ass kicked for over a decade. One of the toughest to play the game. He was almost always on the field and he was always productive. Being on the field and being productive is part of the game. When Sammys healthy hes great but hes clearly been affected by multiple injuries in his first three years. Its the main reason the Bills didnt exercise his option. Do you really believe the Bills passed on his option because he hasnt been targeted enough? Thats just ridiculous. Injuries are a concern with this guy and they are the main reason why the Bills didnt execute his option. How much more obvious can it be? Edited July 24, 2017 by Billsmovinup
nucci Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 Exactly....call me when he plays 14+ games.. . so halftime of game 14 or at the end.......email or by phone?
thebandit27 Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 Right. The facts. As long as someone agrees with what your saying he/she is sticking to the facts. Otherwise its just an emotional reaction. I watched Andre Reed get his ass kicked for over a decade. One of the toughest to play the game. He was almost always on the field and he was always productive. Being on the field and being productive is part of the game. When Sammys healthy hes great but hes clearly been affected by multiple injuries in his first three years. Its the main reason the Bills didnt exercise his option. Do you really believe the Bills passed on his option because he hasnt been targeted enough? Thats just ridiculous. Injuries are a concern with this guy and they are the main reason why the Bills didnt execute his option. How much more obvious can it be? No, when someone discusses actual statistics with context, it shows an effort to understand what the numbers are telling you. When someone comes into a discussion with a blatant attempt to mis-characterize the point being made, and provides absolutely no content aside from said mis-characterization, it reeks of nothing more than an emotional reaction. That you followed it up with another mis-characterization in your next response to me compounded the issue. I don't need you to agree with me, and I have no use for an echo chamber. You seemingly want to complain that he misses too much time and is always hurt. Well, I pointed you to other players (like Julio and say, Antonio Brown) that missed similar amounts of time in their first 3 seasons in an effort to show you that his availability ratio is hardly unusual. I notice that there has not been one single point of mine regarding his availability or productivity on a per-target basis that you've refuted. The issue we are having here is that you are conflating two points. My point is (still) that lack of targets when he's on the field is the #1 reason for Sammy's relative lack of production in comparison to the other guys drafted in his class; injuries are not--they are a distant second. I did not once mention lack of targets as being the reason that they didn't pick up his option; you brought up his option, and I view it as an entirely separate point. It's very clear that they have concerns with regard to his recovery from the 2nd foot surgery, and that those concerns are the reason that they didn't pick up the 5th year option (which was a mistake IMO). Oh, and as to Andre Reed, he played in 6 more games than Sammy in his first 3 seasons, and had the benefit of playing with a HOF QB. Guess whose numbers are better over their first 3 seasons?
Gugny Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 No, when someone discusses actual statistics with context, it shows an effort to understand what the numbers are telling you. When someone comes into a discussion with a blatant attempt to mis-characterize the point being made, and provides absolutely no content aside from said mis-characterization, it reeks of nothing more than an emotional reaction. That you followed it up with another mis-characterization in your next response to me compounded the issue. I don't need you to agree with me, and I have no use for an echo chamber. You seemingly want to complain that he misses too much time and is always hurt. Well, I pointed you to other players (like Julio and say, Antonio Brown) that missed similar amounts of time in their first 3 seasons in an effort to show you that his availability ratio is hardly unusual. I notice that there has not been one single point of mine regarding his availability or productivity on a per-target basis that you've refuted. The issue we are having here is that you are conflating two points. My point is (still) that lack of targets when he's on the field is the #1 reason for Sammy's relative lack of production in comparison to the other guys drafted in his class; injuries are not--they are a distant second. I did not once mention lack of targets as being the reason that they didn't pick up his option; you brought up his option, and I view it as an entirely separate point. It's very clear that they have concerns with regard to his recovery from the 2nd foot surgery, and that those concerns are the reason that they didn't pick up the 5th year option (which was a mistake IMO). Oh, and as to Andre Reed, he played in 6 more games than Sammy in his first 3 seasons, and had the benefit of playing with a HOF QB. Guess whose numbers are better over their first 3 seasons? Just so I'm clear ... are you saying Tyrod Taylor isn't a HOF QB?
Recommended Posts