Why the Playoffs are a Real Possibility

[NoSaint]

The top 2 DVOA offenses last year played in the Super Bowl. 4 of the top 5 were playoff teams. It probably does the best job of "telling the story" as any set of stats. Obviously teams like New Orleans are always going to rank highly on the offensive side but because of their defensive struggles aren't a playoff team.

Id venture it acts similarly to qb rating in being a GREAT predictor once you turn it into a differential instead of just looking at one side

[JinxedBill1]

We got to win the offseason first.

[Pbomb]

Not just a possibility, im leaning more towards a sure thing

[Saxum]

Love your optimism, but yoy lost me when you said it wasn't out of the realm of possibility that all 4 DL make the pro bowl. Has that EVER happened? Alot of talent across the league to assume our 4 are the best 4 lol

 

We have had 3 and with current pro bowl setup before Superbowl (really dumb) it is certainly possible with all of the players who drop out. I think the #9 QB made the pro bowl last year.

[Fan boy '92]

Love your optimism, but yoy lost me when you said it wasn't out of the realm of possibility that all 4 DL make the pro bowl. Has that EVER happened? Alot of talent across the league to assume our 4 are the best 4 lol

Would you be ok with "Any of the 4 DL could make the pro bowl". Does that fix it for you or are you still lost?

[Paup 1995MVP]

I find myself getting caught up in the doom and gloom at times, I must admit. But the more I look at the statistics, the changes made, the people brought in to replace those who left, the new coaching staff in place, and what we still have I am starting to have more of a glimmer of hope for this year.

 

On offense we still have our whole OL intact, with the addition of a potential upgrade at RT in Dawkins. This is the rushing attack that was #1 in the league last year. We still have Tyrod, Shady, Sammy(who should be 100%), and Clay. Tyrod is not really my guy, but I have said we can win with him. He is also going into this year un a familiar system with Dennison at the helm. For all of the talk about how great Prescott was last year, he only averaged around 40 more yards passing per game than Taylor. You throw in Zay Jones, Holmes, Brown, Streater, and I think we have a better WR group than 2016. People also talk about the loss of TD Mike, but backups have been plug and play for us the last couple of years. Hopefully a healthy J Will takes those reigns. There is no reason to believe this unit should not be better than last year. We need healthy starters. That is the key. A full 16 from Sammy, Tyrod, Shady, and Clay. Hopefully the heavens smile upon us in that regard this year.

 

On defense we are heading back to the 4-3, the perfect fit for our personnel on defense. Letting the 4 guys get after it up front is gonna be huge. Imo, it is not out of the realm of thinking that all 4 of these guys could make the Pro Bowl. People will say Shaq is an unknown, he looked lost last year, it was a bad pick. I will say that I watched him dominate in a 4-3 at Clemson and I think you will see him take a huge step forward this year. People will say we don't have a Kuechley or Thomas Davis on this defense. I will say that we have a healthy Ragland, a great signing in Hodges, a better fit in a 4-3 in Preston Brown, and the ageless wonder in Alexander. Outside of 3 really bad performances last year they were solid against the run even with the Ryan buffoons calling the defense. The main question is how the Secondary performs. Micah Hyde was a huge get for us, but is Poyer gonna be able to hold down that other S spot? Which Darby will we get? The rookie version that was better than Gilmore or the 2nd year version that looked lost at times? Is White the real deal? From all accounts he was outstanding in the offseason workouts. How does the rest of the depth chart fill out? Again hopefully we get some good fortune with injuries, but I expect a top 10 unit to be on the field for us again in 2017.

 

In summary I think we are overall a better team from a coaching standpoint alone by shedding the dead weight of the Ryan's. The system changes that fit our personnel, the familiar offense for Tyrod, and the additions we made will upgrade this team despite how some view the losses of Gilmore and TD Mike. Hopefully it all comes together, but to me this team seems different than those I had hopes for in years past. I may be throwing in the towel by the end of October, but for now I think this may be the year the drought finally ends.

 

One last note to throw in there. If Tyrod throws for another 40 yards a game we have a top 10 offense last year. If not for the meltdowns on defense twice against the Dolphins and once against Pittsburgh we have a top 10 defense. The only team to be top 10 in both last year? The team that won the SB, the New England Patriots. Here's to hope in the offseason.

The defense also melted down against the Raiders bigtime in the 2nd half. But Tyrod contributed heavily to the loss with his turnovers also.

 

That being said, I like your optimism, and think we have a pretty solid roster. The hopefully better coaching from a discipline organizational and game management standpoint should be a big plus. Offensively I think our receivers look much better on paper. Holmes Streater and C. Brown are NFL talented players. Robert Woods played with a lot of heart. But he was injured a lot and athletically he was average at best. The contract the Rams gave him was ridiculous. TE scares me. Clay is always hobbled, and I question his explosiveness. (I admit I was excited when we signed him. But for whatever reason he has been nowhere near the weapon he was with the Fish) Hopefully he will be able to give us at least 10-12 really good performances. Behind him is a black hole. Not sure why we have not tried to address this with a really talented player either in free agency or the draft. (I would have went after Jared Cook immediately in free agency)

 

I think the D will play much more cohesively as a unit once they learn McDermott's system. We have a talented front 7 and McDermott and Frazier should get the best out of the players. The secondary could be good if we don't get hit with injuries. But I think we need to bring in another veteran at safety and possibly corner as well.

 

Training camp starts in two and a half weeks, and that is a great thing. The hope and excitement of a new season is always special. The first 5 games should tell us a lot about this team. 3 tough road games at Carolina, Atlanta and Cinci. And home against Denver. Tyrod will need to come out of the gate fast. Go Bills!

[rant_and_go]

Crazy man logic. Stats don't dictate reality, which is the Bills cannot make every throw on the field.

Coupled with a complete rebuild of coaching and personnel, 4 wins will be an accomplishment.

[H2o]

Crazy man logic. Stats don't dictate reality, which is the Bills cannot make every throw on the field.

Coupled with a complete rebuild of coaching and personnel, 4 wins will be an accomplishment.

I'd take the over on that without 2nd thought

[26CornerBlitz]

Put your $ where your mouth is if you Billieve in 2017:

 

@NickVeronica

.@BovadaLV is not bullish on #Bills playoff chances. They gave longer odds to only five teams. You'd have to bet $1,000 to make $100 on No.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

Put your $ where your mouth is if you Billieve in 2017:

 

@NickVeronica

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.@BovadaLV is not bullish on #Bills playoff chances. They gave longer odds to only five teams. You'd have to bet $1,000 to make $100 on No.

 

I like the Bills a little bit at those odds. I think I gave them about a 1 in 4 shot of making it. The AFC in general isn't very good (or deep). The Bills should have went last year as it turns out. I'll probably throw $100 down. It's most likely a donation but at those odds I don't hate it.

[Very wide right]

I find myself getting caught up in the doom and gloom at times, I must admit. But the more I look at the statistics, the changes made, the people brought in to replace those who left, the new coaching staff in place, and what we still have I am starting to have more of a glimmer of hope for this year.

 

On offense we still have our whole OL intact, with the addition of a potential upgrade at RT in Dawkins. This is the rushing attack that was #1 in the league last year. We still have Tyrod, Shady, Sammy(who should be 100%), and Clay. Tyrod is not really my guy, but I have said we can win with him. He is also going into this year un a familiar system with Dennison at the helm. For all of the talk about how great Prescott was last year, he only averaged around 40 more yards passing per game than Taylor. You throw in Zay Jones, Holmes, Brown, Streater, and I think we have a better WR group than 2016. People also talk about the loss of TD Mike, but backups have been plug and play for us the last couple of years. Hopefully a healthy J Will takes those reigns. There is no reason to believe this unit should not be better than last year. We need healthy starters. That is the key. A full 16 from Sammy, Tyrod, Shady, and Clay. Hopefully the heavens smile upon us in that regard this year.

 

On defense we are heading back to the 4-3, the perfect fit for our personnel on defense. Letting the 4 guys get after it up front is gonna be huge. Imo, it is not out of the realm of thinking that all 4 of these guys could make the Pro Bowl. People will say Shaq is an unknown, he looked lost last year, it was a bad pick. I will say that I watched him dominate in a 4-3 at Clemson and I think you will see him take a huge step forward this year. People will say we don't have a Kuechley or Thomas Davis on this defense. I will say that we have a healthy Ragland, a great signing in Hodges, a better fit in a 4-3 in Preston Brown, and the ageless wonder in Alexander. Outside of 3 really bad performances last year they were solid against the run even with the Ryan buffoons calling the defense. The main question is how the Secondary performs. Micah Hyde was a huge get for us, but is Poyer gonna be able to hold down that other S spot? Which Darby will we get? The rookie version that was better than Gilmore or the 2nd year version that looked lost at times? Is White the real deal? From all accounts he was outstanding in the offseason workouts. How does the rest of the depth chart fill out? Again hopefully we get some good fortune with injuries, but I expect a top 10 unit to be on the field for us again in 2017.

 

In summary I think we are overall a better team from a coaching standpoint alone by shedding the dead weight of the Ryan's. The system changes that fit our personnel, the familiar offense for Tyrod, and the additions we made will upgrade this team despite how some view the losses of Gilmore and TD Mike. Hopefully it all comes together, but to me this team seems different than those I had hopes for in years past. I may be throwing in the towel by the end of October, but for now I think this may be the year the drought finally ends.

 

One last note to throw in there. If Tyrod throws for another 40 yards a game we have a top 10 offense last year. If not for the meltdowns on defense twice against the Dolphins and once against Pittsburgh we have a top 10 defense. The only team to be top 10 in both last year? The team that won the SB, the New England Patriots. Here's to hope in the offseason.

No

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I think that the playoffs are a possibility but the Bills will need a lot of luck. I have them between 6-10 & 10-6. They probably need 10-6 to get in. They will need to stay healthy to have any shot.

 

I think Tyrod improving or remaining the same is the difference between 6-10 and 10-6. If we finish 10-6 then he likely had a helluva year.

[Seasons1992]

I'd take the over on that without 2nd thought

Agreed. Unless injuries completely derail both sides of the ball, they're winning 6 at minimum.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

The day this thread was made they started distributing yuengling to the Buffalo area, coincidence I think not.

[dayman]

Schedule should be very tough this year. First year coach. Unlikely.

[Buffalo Boy]

 

I think Tyrod improving or remaining the same is the difference between 6-10 and 10-6. If we finish 10-6 then he likely had a helluva year.

For me, it is all about Dennison.

Can/will he create an offense that uses TT's strengths and hides his weaknesses.

IMO he will never be good at anticipating throws. It was painful to watch him scan the field and miss opportunities down field.

If this quick short passing scheme works, maybe we have something. Couple it with a good ground game and IF(!!!) Sammy gives us 10+ good, healthy games maybe, just maybe.....

[H2o]

For me, it is all about Dennison.

Can/will he create an offense that uses TT's strengths and hides his weaknesses.

IMO he will never be good at anticipating throws. It was painful to watch him scan the field and miss opportunities down field.

If this quick short passing scheme works, maybe we have something. Couple it with a good ground game and IF(!!!) Sammy gives us 10+ good, healthy games maybe, just maybe.....

I agree it's on Dennison. There are different aspects that have been missing from this offense in the passing game that I hope he is smart enough to implement. Sammy has been grossly underutilized on plays that get him the ball quickly in space. The slants and screens that could give him the chance to make a play have been almost nonexistent. Feed a healthy Sammy the rock and watch him prove to be elite. Tyrod needs to hit Clay in the intermediate seams. There aren't too many LB's that can run with him. Play action to draw them in and hit Clay about 15 yards down the middle of the field. Anything could happen after that. Hopefully the familiarity with the offense shines through with Tyrod. We really need him to step up.

[Thurman#1]

I find myself getting caught up in the doom and gloom at times, I must admit. But the more I look at the statistics, the changes made, the people brought in to replace those who left, the new coaching staff in place, and what we still have I am starting to have more of a glimmer of hope for this year.

 

On offense we still have our whole OL intact, with the addition of a potential upgrade at RT in Dawkins. This is the rushing attack that was #1 in the league last year. We still have Tyrod, Shady, Sammy(who should be 100%), and Clay. Tyrod is not really my guy, but I have said we can win with him. He is also going into this year un a familiar system with Dennison at the helm. For all of the talk about how great Prescott was last year, he only averaged around 40 more yards passing per game than Taylor. You throw in Zay Jones, Holmes, Brown, Streater, and I think we have a better WR group than 2016. People also talk about the loss of TD Mike, but backups have been plug and play for us the last couple of years. Hopefully a healthy J Will takes those reigns. There is no reason to believe this unit should not be better than last year. We need healthy starters. That is the key. A full 16 from Sammy, Tyrod, Shady, and Clay. Hopefully the heavens smile upon us in that regard this year.

 

On defense we are heading back to the 4-3, the perfect fit for our personnel on defense. Letting the 4 guys get after it up front is gonna be huge. Imo, it is not out of the realm of thinking that all 4 of these guys could make the Pro Bowl. People will say Shaq is an unknown, he looked lost last year, it was a bad pick. I will say that I watched him dominate in a 4-3 at Clemson and I think you will see him take a huge step forward this year. People will say we don't have a Kuechley or Thomas Davis on this defense. I will say that we have a healthy Ragland, a great signing in Hodges, a better fit in a 4-3 in Preston Brown, and the ageless wonder in Alexander. Outside of 3 really bad performances last year they were solid against the run even with the Ryan buffoons calling the defense. The main question is how the Secondary performs. Micah Hyde was a huge get for us, but is Poyer gonna be able to hold down that other S spot? Which Darby will we get? The rookie version that was better than Gilmore or the 2nd year version that looked lost at times? Is White the real deal? From all accounts he was outstanding in the offseason workouts. How does the rest of the depth chart fill out? Again hopefully we get some good fortune with injuries, but I expect a top 10 unit to be on the field for us again in 2017.

 

In summary I think we are overall a better team from a coaching standpoint alone by shedding the dead weight of the Ryan's. The system changes that fit our personnel, the familiar offense for Tyrod, and the additions we made will upgrade this team despite how some view the losses of Gilmore and TD Mike. Hopefully it all comes together, but to me this team seems different than those I had hopes for in years past. I may be throwing in the towel by the end of October, but for now I think this may be the year the drought finally ends.

 

One last note to throw in there. If Tyrod throws for another 40 yards a game we have a top 10 offense last year. If not for the meltdowns on defense twice against the Dolphins and once against Pittsburgh we have a top 10 defense. The only team to be top 10 in both last year? The team that won the SB, the New England Patriots. Here's to hope in the offseason.

 

 

Bless you for your optimism.

 

But this is the same stuff we hear every year. And virtually all of it could be said for every other bad to mediocre team in the league if you just change the names.

 

What it amounts to is essentially "if things go really really well, then things would go really really well, and therefore I think there's a good chance that things will go really really well."

 

Again, bless you, but the odds are very high against it. This year, anyway. Turnarounds when they happen generally - not every single time, but generally - take time.

[Thurman#1]

On your last note: if we passed for 40 more yards a game we'd have been the #4 offense in yards, one spot ahead of the Patriots. We were already top 10 in points and DVOA.

 

 

 

Yeah, but the thing is that 40 yards more passing per game is huge. It's the difference between being 24th in the league last year (the Eagles at 224.1 YPG and 5th in the league last year (ahead of the Colts and Steelers tied for 5th with 262.6 YPG.

 

To put that in perspective, instead of looking at passing yards, let's look at points scored.

 

That's like saying "All we have to do is score six more points per game (the difference between 24th in the league and 5th in the league) and we'd be pretty good. Yeah of course you would. But scoring six more points per game is very hard. Same as passing for 40 more yards per game.

 

"All we have to do ... " misrepresents the difficulty here. More like "Here's the major mountain we would have to climb to ..."

Would you be ok with "Any of the 4 DL could make the pro bowl". Does that fix it for you or are you still lost?

 

 

That's being preeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetty optimistic about Shaq. If we put him as a guy who might make the Pro Bowl, we'd have to say that it's also true of about half of the guys at the position.

Edited July 11, 2017 by Thurman#1

[wilcoam]

I keep reading, all over this forum, what a 'special' player M Hyde is, or what a great get he is - Honestly I don't get the hype, yes I think he's a solid young 5th year depth player, with potential upside to start in the right system, but one should remember the Packers never saw him an NFL starter, and made no attempt to re-sign him, here's a review by a packers media pundit who witnessed Hyde's game in and game out over 4 seasons

 

Despite some of the big plays that Hyde made down the stretch, Hyde is part of the reason that the Packers’ defense struggled as much as it did as well. Hyde does not have top end speed. He struggles in man coverage. He has made some big plays, but gave up his fair share as well. Hyde is a solid all around player, but does not do anything special. He would have been a solid piece for the Packers to bring back if the price would have been right. When the Packers’ secondary was healthy in 2015, Hyde was designated as the player to shadow the opposing team’s tight ends. He was repeatedly targeted, and mostly abused in coverage. 2016 brought about a bigger role for him because of a secondary that was ravaged by injuries. Hyde performed admirably. An eight-game stretch does not, however, erase the kind of player that the Packers should have learned that Hyde was over the stretch of the first four years of his career. In order to retain Hyde, the Packers would have had to pay him more money than what they let Casey Hayward walk away for just one season ago. Even if you remove Hayward’s outlier season in terms of interceptions, Hayward was always a better cornerback than Hyde. Hyde’s versatility, while useful is not worth the price that was ultimately paid to him from outside of the organization. The lack of an offer by the Packers proves the team felt the same way. By removing Hyde from the defense altogether, the Packers are almost forcing themselves to get faster in the secondary. They will need someone to replace all the things that Hyde did for them. They’ll likely find someone who is better athletically and with more speed. His play down the stretch turned into a big payday. Hyde should be commended for that. Without Hyde, the Packers may not have made the playoffs, let alone been one step from the Super Bowl. It can also be true that the defense was bad with Hyde on the field. It can also be true that Hyde is one of the main reasons the secondary was as poor as it was. Hyde was a limited player. His new contract is paying him as if he is a premium player. While the Packers technically got worse by losing Hyde’s versatility in the short run, it forces them to get better in the long run. For that reason along with several others, the Packers made the right call by letting Hyde walk.

jc