Article on why 2017 passing game can make giant leap forward

[Mango]

Watching the games last year, it didn't look like the issue was scheme. It looked like the biggest problem was the passer. There were regularly guys open. We ran a mobile QB friendly system, with a lot of counters, a strong run game, simple passing tree, and QB roll outs/designed runs.

 

I didn't realize we were suddenly of the opinion that it was scheme that was stopping us from having AVG QB play.

[Figster]

McDaniel has done a lot to the Bills reflects a system coach building a team around him because he only knows to play the game one way.

 

Revamp the running game, when it worked last year and the Bills still lost

Loose Gilmore, and draft a CB 1st round.

 

West Coast Offense, it's like the Tampa-2 has never been invented.

 

NFL teams should be able to run every offense since 1950 if they have to. They've only been doing it for 20 years.

 

Tyrod will never be a good QB until he throws over the middle. I don't think he's been saving it for this long.

Taylors height disadvantage makes throwing over the middle from the pocket more difficult because he's looking into and not over a wall of big bodies IMO. The West coast O is predicated on stretching the D horizontally for the most part which in and of itself helps open up passing lanes over the middle. The open spaces created by the West Coast O is very well suited for the quick strike capabilities of both Shady and T Mobile and used properly will become a nightmare for the opposition to defend in my humble opinion.

 

Myself personally, high expectations...

 

...I'm a Billiever...

Edited July 11, 2017 by Figster

[Gugny]

Taylors height disadvantage makes throwing over the middle from the pocket more difficult because he's looking into and not over a wall of big bodies IMO. The West coast O is predicated on stretching the D horizontally for the most part which in and of itself helps open up passing lanes over the middle. The open spaces created by the West Coast O is very well suited for the quick strike capabilities of both Shady and T Mobile and used properly will become a nightmare for the opposition to defend in my humble opinion.

 

Myself personally, high expectations...

 

...I'm a Billiever...

 

Another excuse.

 

Enough, already. He's JUST. NOT. GOOD.

[Bangarang]

production on the ground comes on passing plays???

 

So he aborted and freelanced?

Not exactly. We've seen Tyrod escape pressure and pick up yards with his legs. It's out of necessity quite often.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Not exactly. We've seen Tyrod escape pressure and pick up yards with his legs. It's out of necessity quite often.

if he released the ball quicker and with anticipation he would by default avoid having to scramble quite so often

[Figster]

if he released the ball quicker and with anticipation he would by default avoid having to scramble quite so often

No doubt about it, and this is part of Taylors game that needs to show a big improvement IMO.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

 

 

Yeah, I think it's fair to call him better than average if you factor in his run game. But if you look at only his passing game, which simply is the most important thing for a QB, he's slightly below average this last year after people figured out how to defend him.

 

So yeah, always look to upgrade ... until you get a QB who is somewhere in the top ten or twelve in the passing game. At that point you finally can take new QB out of the number one on your priority list.

 

If Tyrod somehow becomes that guy ... terrific. But the number of QBs who have become real franchise QBs after seven years in the league is pretty much Rich Gannon and nobody else. The odds against it are very high. Not impossible, though.

 

Steve Young

 

 

Right, so if you assume that an OC is dumb enough to totally avoid tailoring his offense in any way to his QB ... which would be probably the first time in history that had ever been completely avoided ... then you can indeed baselessly guess that it wasn't tailored for the personnel on the team, including the quarterback.

 

But in fact, that would be wrong. Before 2016, after a year working with Tyrod and the Bills personnel, Roman said that they were "... just opening up, expanding our offense a little bit." Didn't work out. And then when they fired him what did Anthony Lynn say in his opening press conference were going to be the changes he was going to make? Simplifying the offense and specifically, simplifying the reads. Whoops!!

 

Q: "How do you help Tyrod Taylor attack the middle of the field more?"

A: " Well, you know, just simplifying pass reads. Coach Lee does a helluva job working with his mechanics as far as throwing the football. He's a smaller guy so sometimes we might have to move the pocket for him and if they want to giv us those throws outside the hash, we'll take 'em. If they want to give 'em down the field, we'll take 'em. I'm not going to focus on just trying to get the football in one area of the field but that does open things up outside if we can get that done, don't get me wrong. "

 

So the idea that they didn't adjust tailor things to Tyrod just simply flies in the face of the facts.

 

Just because the particular article you're quoting doesn't point out the facts that are inconvenient for your argument doesn't mean they weren't happening.

 

I really don't know what you think you're responding to that I wrote... seems something's getting lost in translation because you're talking about something totally separate from what I meant in that quote.

[Kirby Jackson]

if he released the ball quicker and with anticipation he would by default avoid having to scramble quite so often

This is the double edged sword that you get with Tyrod. A lot of QBs will throw balls away where he gets sacked. A lot of QBs will throw balls away where he breaks contain and picks up a dozen yards on the ground. It's not one or the other, it's both. Edited July 11, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[#34fan]

 

The season can't come soon enough.

 

 

Folks, we have a winner!

[Big Gun]

 

 

His record when playing with a full offensive cast :

 

64% completion, 3,362 yards, 8+ yards per attempt, 26 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

 

 

How does this compare to other QBs when they have a full healthy offensive cast?

[row_33]

 

With due respect to you, John - haven't you had enough of making excuses for Tyrod? No one expects the guy to be Brady, but let's call a spade a spade, here. Unless every other player/unit is on top of their game, Tyrod never looks good and the Bills never win. The Bills need better.

 

Bills excuses ran out of house money around 2006 for not making the playoffs.

[Figster]

This is the double edged sword that you get with Tyrod. A lot of QBs will throw balls away where he gets sacked. A lot of QBs with throw balls away where he breaks contain and picks up a dozen yards on the ground. It's not one or the other, it's both.

and I don't think there is anyone in the league better at doing this not named Cam,

 

Cam Newton has scored 48 TD's on the ground from the QB position in 6 seasons. (335 points)

Edited July 11, 2017 by Figster

[Kirby Jackson]

More often then not he's making plays with his legs.

Yeah, it's good and bad (like anything). I'd love to see him cut down the time that he holds the ball but not at the expense of his playmaking ability. Big Ben has made a career out of that. He also gets sacked (and hit) a lot. It's a fine line and a balance.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

This is the double edged sword that you get with Tyrod. A lot of QBs will throw balls away where he gets sacked. A lot of QBs will throw balls away where he breaks contain and picks up a dozen yards on the ground. It's not one or the other, it's both.

Understood.

 

Breaking containment can be helpful, but doing it too often is a hindrance.

Yeah, it's good and bad (like anything). I'd love to see him cut down the time that he holds the ball but not at the expense of his playmaking ability. Big Ben has made a career out of that. He also gets sacked (and hit) a lot. It's a fine line and a balance.

beat me to it.

[Runninrams]

and I don't think there is anyone in the league better at doing this not named Cam,

 

Cam Newton has scored 48 TD's on the ground from the QB position in 6 seasons. (335 points)

 

 

Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers

[Kirby Jackson]

How does this compare to other QBs when they have a full healthy offensive cast?

Someone did the math earlier but the yards per attempt are still really high. That should be expected though as the Bills have been more of a big play type of offense than a controlled passing game. The yards are middle of the league (ish) which isn't that surprising because the attempts are still at the bottom. The TDs are top 10, INTs near the bottom of the league and TD to INT ratio top 5.

 

Obviously it's a little utopian to expect no injuries but the Bills have been quite effective when healthy. If I had to put a number on it, if the Bills could miss 8 games or less (combined) from Sammy, Zay, Shady and Clay they will be a really good offense. That's assumes 16 starts from Tyrod. I'm not sure that's possible and is certainly unlikely. The Bills will need some luck for sure.

[Figster]

 

 

Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers

Both have good wheels , but nobody in the league displays the Barry Sanders like running skills Taylor has shown from the QB Position IMO.

[Gugny]

Both have good wheels , but nobody in the league displays the Barry Sanders like running skills Taylor has shown from the QB Position IMO.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

 

 

Agreed that the dot plots show that he went to the outside thirds of the field more. But as I extensively documented on the old site, in 2015 his success in the deep and intermediate middle thirds was awful, including a much larger than expected number of his INTs considering he threw very few passes there.

 

I didn't go through every pass this last year in 2016 so I can't say, and would be willing to believe he improved.

 

But as I've pointed out again and again, the PFF stats and the ESPN stats both miss the point. Tyrod throws well not just outside the hashes but also for another two to three yards inside them. And he also goes there a lot. Both PFF and ESPN consider those passes to an area he went to often and well to be "the middle." Which it isn't. Tyrod throws often and well to the outside third of the field and not often and at least in 2015 not so well to the middle third of the field. Of course, dividing the passes that way is a ridiculous amount of work, as I discovered. So after I did it play by play in 2015 I I haven't found anyone else who has done it.

 

So yeah, his stats "to the middle" look good because the area of the outside that he throws to often and well is being considered "the middle" by these folks, so they throw all his good stats in with the far fewer balls he threw to the middle third and the stats from those just-inside-the-hashes passes overwhelm the stats for the balls actually thrown to the area Tyrod has trouble with.

 

Again, Tyrod has trouble with one area, the deep and intermediate middle third. Throw in stats from other areas he's better at, like the area just inside the hashes or the area in the middle but short, in the first ten yards, and yeah, those areas he's strong in cover up the tendencies in the areas he's weak in.

 

Thurm, we've been through this over at BBMB and you're going to completely ignore this because that's what you do, but in order to save some posters from some of your misinformation, I'm going to respond to this with a bunch of stuff I've brought up to you but you ignore. SInce that was on another message board, we wanna make sure we understand why your premise is incomplete and/or inconclusive, because you must analyze other QBs comparatively rather than just taking Taylor's numbers and arbitrarily saying they aren't good enough based on your own personal opinion rather than what other NFL QBs are doing.

 

First, stop with this deep middle obsession of yours. It doesn't matter because NFL QBs go there such a small percentage of the time that that area of the field (20+ yards to the middle) might be the most ignored by NFL QBs.

 

According to just a few of the PFF passing charts I could find, in terms of the deep middle of the field

 

Cam Newton went there 5.9% of the time

Tom Brady went there 3.8% of the time

Russell Wilson went there 2.5% of the time

Tyrod Taylor went there 4.4% of the time

 

QBs rarely throw to the deep middle. Period.

 

ESPN's stats are literally stats to the middle of the field because they're between the hashmarks. And in 2016, Taylor's numbers compared to a bunch of other QBs looked like this:

 

Rodgers: 9.3% of total attempts, 57.9 % completions, 7.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 67.1 Passer Rating

Newton: 10.6% of total attempts, 59.3 % completions, 8.6 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 98 Passer Rating

Mariota: 10.6% of total attempts, 66.7 % completions, 8.1 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 103.6 Passer Rating

Carr: 12% of total attempts, 67.2 % completions, 8.6 YPA, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 100.3 Passer Rating

Taylor: 7.3% of total attempts, 78.1 % completions, 8.7 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 103 Passer Rating

Tannehill: 10.3% of total attempts, 70 % completions, 6.3 YPA, 0 TDs, 1 INTs, 76.3 Passer Rating

Wilson: 8.4% of total attempts, 65.2 % completions, 7.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 83.9 Passer Rating

Cousins: 11.7% of total attempts, 74.6 % completions, 10.4 YPA, 4 TDs, 4 INTs, 102.8 Passer Rating

Stafford: 10.8% of total attempts, 70.3 % completions, 7.9 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 93.8 Passer Rating

Luck: 15.8% of total attempts, 61.6 % completions, 7.4 YPA, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 107.5 Passer Rating

Winston: 9.7% of total attempts, 72.7 % completions, 8.2 YPA, 2 TDs, 1 INTs, 101.5 Passer Rating

Ryan: 12.5% of total attempts, 71.6 % completions, 10.3 YPA, 7 TDs, 1 INTs, 133.3 Passer Rating

 

Yeah, those take all passes to the middle, but notice how high his YPA is compared to everyone else... so those aren't just little dumpoffs with a whole bunch of YAC, especially since we know Taylor's WR corps got some of the lowest YAC in the NFL.

 

So that's just over 6 yards worth of passes horizontally across the field in the middle. A football field is 160 feet or 53.333 yards. Your "middle third" obsession is 17.7 yards. We have data on 6.5 of those yards, so you're arguing that all those leftover numbers for Taylor that fall outside the hashmarks but between the numbers fall in the 3.7 yards immediately inside the numbers but not any closer to the hashmarks. You're saying he ignores and doesn't do well about 7 yards immediately outside the hashmarks on both sides, but does just fine inside those hashmarks, which is the most precise middle of the field you can get pretty much, and the rest of his good throws come in the just under 4 yards right before the numbers on both sides.

 

You're arguing that his good passing inside the hashmarks, or exactly to the middle of the field, and just inside the numbers for just under 4 yards (about 3.7 yards) end up skewing his numbers that he has for PFF for the "middle of the field" and that he's absolutely horrible and/or ignores those 7 yards just outside the hashmarks and before those 3.7 yards inside the numbers. 2 questions:

 

Did you chart other QBs to find out how they're doing in those same areas?

I hope so, because otherwise the numbers don't mean much.

 

 

AND

 

Let's say you're right (and we can't really say that until we have some numbers of other QBs for comparison's sake) and Taylor's great inside the hashmarks and just inside the numbers on both sides for about 4 yards but struggles more than other QBs for about the 7 yards inside that.

 

So what?

Edited July 11, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Runninrams]

Both have good wheels , but nobody in the league displays the Barry Sanders like running skills Taylor has shown from the QB Position IMO.

 

We talking you playing Madden on easy mode? or real life....