Article on why 2017 passing game can make giant leap forward

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

Actually, those "dot plots" and analyses of Taylor's throwing success don't show he's better down the sidelines and outside the hashes, they just show that he goes there more.

 

According to PFF, on passes beyond the LOS to the "middle of the field" up to 20 yards beyond the LOS (I think we can all agree it's probably those throws that are 5-15 yards beyond that are mostly the bread and butter of the WCO) Taylor was 82/112 (73.2%) for 839 yards for 7.5 YPA with 4 passing TDs and 0 INTs for a Passer Rating of 106.2.

 

 

And yeah, those are just numbers, but as I said earlier, go back and rewatch some of the passes in the handful of games right after Roman was let go and Lynn took over. You'll notice Lynn concentrated on incorporating more of these types of plays than Roman did. You'll see more of those "shallow cross" passes the article refers to particularly to Powell and Tate.

 

 

So it's not that Taylor can't do it, he just wasn't asked to do it much at all under Roman and then a little more under Lynn.

That's the hope. Obviously the inference is his stature limits his ability to see there.

 

I think Tyrod himself acknowledged the need to use the middle of field more in a prior offseason.

 

But point taken. Maybe he is exceptional at it and just chose not to do it often, or wasn't asked to.

 

Time will tell.

[3rdand12]

The article doesn't talk about tailoring (heh ) a system to our QB. It says the system our OC runs (which has been extremely successful for years) is tailored to our QB.

Steal my dim wit will you ?

plagiaristic commie.

It's spelled Taylored

 

Actually, those "dot plots" and analyses of Taylor's throwing success don't show he's better down the sidelines and outside the hashes, they just show that he goes there more.

 

According to PFF, on passes beyond the LOS to the "middle of the field" up to 20 yards beyond the LOS (I think we can all agree it's probably those throws that are 5-15 yards beyond that are mostly the bread and butter of the WCO) Taylor was 82/112 (73.2%) for 839 yards for 7.5 YPA with 4 passing TDs and 0 INTs for a Passer Rating of 106.2.

 

 

And yeah, those are just numbers, but as I said earlier, go back and rewatch some of the passes in the handful of games right after Roman was let go and Lynn took over. You'll notice Lynn concentrated on incorporating more of these types of plays than Roman did. You'll see more of those "shallow cross" passes the article refers to particularly to Powell and Tate.

 

 

So it's not that Taylor can't do it, he just wasn't asked to do it much at all under Roman and then a little more under Lynn.

Great post in regard to what lynn did. It was immediately noticeable imo.

and why i honestly voted for him for President..err HC !

[rant_and_go]

This is catering to your personnel....putting them in the best position to succeed.....a concept that was foreign to Rex.

McDaniel has done a lot to the Bills reflects a system coach building a team around him because he only knows to play the game one way.

 

Revamp the running game, when it worked last year and the Bills still lost

Loose Gilmore, and draft a CB 1st round.

 

West Coast Offense, it's like the Tampa-2 has never been invented.

 

NFL teams should be able to run every offense since 1950 if they have to. They've only been doing it for 20 years.

 

Tyrod will never be a good QB until he throws over the middle. I don't think he's been saving it for this long.

[BADOLBILZ]

Fwiw.....Tyrod trained in a system similar to what Dennison is installing for 8 years at Va Tech and Baltimore before joining the Bills....this is what he knows and his comfort in the system is reflected in his numbers as a passer when throwing in rhythm.

 

Last season we saw a less efficient Tyrod for a number of reasons......one was health/talent at WR/TE.......but another was a subtle and unexpected adjustment from defenses.......they took the risk to pressure Taylor more.

 

Whereas in 2015 he was given all day to make throws from the pocket, perhaps alleviating his lack of comfort in such an unstructured pass system........in 2016, he was more rushed in a system that did not sync up QB footwork and pass routes and Tyrod looked very uncomfortable/awkward and was subsequently less accurate and efficient.

 

It was kinda' ballsy design move by DC's and worked pretty well early........then Lynn took over and from there on out the Bills fought fire with fire all season.......pressure Tyrod.....sack Tyrod......pressure Tyrod......Tyrod and the running backs gash you for enormous plays.

 

DC's won the passing game battles with Tyrod and the Bills feeble pass receiving group........ but in the process the Bills offense won the war by leading the NFL in big plays and being one of the league's top scoring teams.

 

I loved what the offense did under Roman/Lynn........the best offense we've seen in Buffalo in a quarter century.......but in that system Tyrod was only as good of a passer as the weapons around him......they gained all their advantage from style and none from the passing scheme/play design.......which was less than poor for an NFL offense.

 

in this system he has a chance to do more as a passer with less talent than he needed before.........but if the WR corps is healthy he will have more weapons than last year.

 

My concern is a big decline in the run game.

 

Dennison's system is run friendly but this is a significantly different approach to blocking for an athletically overrated OL(IMO) and now Tyrod will not be able to freeze the defense with the run pass option.....meaning more penetration and less yards before contact(the hidden key to the Bills run success)........and then when McCoy inevitably gets hurt or hits that wall....nothing behind him.

 

I am hopeful that Dennison can spin this together into a top 5 offense.......but I am expecting a big drop in run game efficiency and subsequently a big drop in offense regardless.

[Thurman#1]

 

If we can just become a 'Bend Don't Break' Defense, make the opponent travel the length of the field eating clock and settling for FG's or 4th down stops, it will be a major improvement. The glorious run game of the past 2 seasons we speak so highly of, was a significant detriment a lot of the time with far too many 3 and outs, trying to run too often. WCO will very likely mean much less rushing -say goodbye to our 2 years on top- but a more balanced attack. Keeping their offense on the sidelines and surrendering less big plays on Defense will have us in every game, and I believe this is McD's vision. IMO.

 

 

Again, more "If things go really really well, then they'll have gone really really well, so ... championship!!!!!" Keeping their offense on the sidelines and surrendering less big plays on defense would indeed have us more competitive in every game. It's just unlikely that such major improvements will occur so quickly in the new regime's term. If you're talking about the long term, I'm really hopeful that you're right. If you're talking about the short-term, his vision is likely to be "in progress" this year.

 

When schemes switch it generally takes time for major improvements to show. And part of the time it takes is to weed out the guys who don't fit the new vision and system and to bring in guys who do.

[Thurman#1]

He's no where near bad and he's better then average.

 

He's in the pretty good range, yet people constantly B word about him. Always look to upgrade, but he's a very good option for the time being considering the league is mostly QB deprived.

 

 

 

Yeah, I think it's fair to call him better than average if you factor in his run game. But if you look at only his passing game, which simply is the most important thing for a QB, he's slightly below average this last year after people figured out how to defend him.

 

So yeah, always look to upgrade ... until you get a QB who is somewhere in the top ten or twelve in the passing game. At that point you finally can take new QB out of the number one on your priority list.

 

If Tyrod somehow becomes that guy ... terrific. But the number of QBs who have become real franchise QBs after seven years in the league is pretty much Rich Gannon and nobody else. The odds against it are very high. Not impossible, though.

[Thurman#1]

The article doesn't talk about tailoring (heh ) a system to our QB. It says the system our OC runs (which has been extremely successful for years) is tailored to our QB.

 

 

Right, so if you assume that an OC is dumb enough to totally avoid tailoring his offense in any way to his QB ... which would be probably the first time in history that had ever been completely avoided ... then you can indeed baselessly guess that it wasn't tailored for the personnel on the team, including the quarterback.

 

But in fact, that would be wrong. Before 2016, after a year working with Tyrod and the Bills personnel, Roman said that they were "... just opening up, expanding our offense a little bit." Didn't work out. And then when they fired him what did Anthony Lynn say in his opening press conference were going to be the changes he was going to make? Simplifying the offense and specifically, simplifying the reads. Whoops!!

 

Q: "How do you help Tyrod Taylor attack the middle of the field more?"

A: " Well, you know, just simplifying pass reads. Coach Lee does a helluva job working with his mechanics as far as throwing the football. He's a smaller guy so sometimes we might have to move the pocket for him and if they want to giv us those throws outside the hash, we'll take 'em. If they want to give 'em down the field, we'll take 'em. I'm not going to focus on just trying to get the football in one area of the field but that does open things up outside if we can get that done, don't get me wrong. "

 

So the idea that they didn't adjust tailor things to Tyrod just simply flies in the face of the facts.

 

Just because the particular article you're quoting doesn't point out the facts that are inconvenient for your argument doesn't mean they weren't happening.

Edited July 11, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

 

Actually, those "dot plots" and analyses of Taylor's throwing success don't show he's better down the sidelines and outside the hashes, they just show that he goes there more.

 

According to PFF, on passes beyond the LOS to the "middle of the field" up to 20 yards beyond the LOS (I think we can all agree it's probably those throws that are 5-15 yards beyond that are mostly the bread and butter of the WCO) Taylor was 82/112 (73.2%) for 839 yards for 7.5 YPA with 4 passing TDs and 0 INTs for a Passer Rating of 106.2.

 

 

And yeah, those are just numbers, but as I said earlier, go back and rewatch some of the passes in the handful of games right after Roman was let go and Lynn took over. You'll notice Lynn concentrated on incorporating more of these types of plays than Roman did. You'll see more of those "shallow cross" passes the article refers to particularly to Powell and Tate.

 

 

So it's not that Taylor can't do it, he just wasn't asked to do it much at all under Roman and then a little more under Lynn.

 

 

 

Agreed that the dot plots show that he went to the outside thirds of the field more. But as I extensively documented on the old site, in 2015 his success in the deep and intermediate middle thirds was awful, including a much larger than expected number of his INTs considering he threw very few passes there.

 

I didn't go through every pass this last year in 2016 so I can't say, and would be willing to believe he improved.

 

But as I've pointed out again and again, the PFF stats and the ESPN stats both miss the point. Tyrod throws well not just outside the hashes but also for another two to three yards inside them. And he also goes there a lot. Both PFF and ESPN consider those passes to an area he went to often and well to be "the middle." Which it isn't. Tyrod throws often and well to the outside third of the field and not often and at least in 2015 not so well to the middle third of the field. Of course, dividing the passes that way is a ridiculous amount of work, as I discovered. So after I did it play by play in 2015 I I haven't found anyone else who has done it.

 

So yeah, his stats "to the middle" look good because the area of the outside that he throws to often and well is being considered "the middle" by these folks, so they throw all his good stats in with the far fewer balls he threw to the middle third and the stats from those just-inside-the-hashes passes overwhelm the stats for the balls actually thrown to the area Tyrod has trouble with.

 

Again, Tyrod has trouble with one area, the deep and intermediate middle third. Throw in stats from other areas he's better at, like the area just inside the hashes or the area in the middle but short, in the first ten yards, and yeah, those areas he's strong in cover up the tendencies in the areas he's weak in.

[transplantbillsfan]

Oh good god...

 

Back to your "deep and intermediate middle third" again.

 

I counter your "as I've extensively documented" with "as you've constantly been proven wrong and blithely ignored your own misconceptions"

 

But... ya know... we all need our "deep and intermediate middle third" fix.

 

Edited July 11, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Gugny]

 

Yeah, I think it's fair to call him better than average if you factor in his run game. But if you look at only his passing game, which simply is the most important thing for a QB, he's slightly below average this last year after people figured out how to defend him.

 

 

This could be said about every QB who runs far better than he passes. History shows that once the league has figured out how to defend them, they're done.

 

(not picking on what you wrote, Thurman#1, it just popped out to me as a great real-life example to show others exactly what we have in TT)

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Is it

 

 

Time yet?

[grb]

 

 

Which it isn't. Tyrod throws often and well to the outside third of the field and not often and at least in 2015 not so well to the middle third of the field. Of course, dividing the passes that way is a ridiculous amount of work, as I discovered. So after I did it play by play in 2015 I I haven't found anyone else who has done it.........

 

.....Again, Tyrod has trouble with one area, the deep and intermediate middle third. Throw in stats from other areas he's better at, like the area just inside the hashes or the area in the middle but short, in the first ten yards, and yeah, those areas he's strong in cover up the tendencies in the areas he's weak in.

 

I don't blame you for not doing a season's analysis of Taylor's throws to the "deep and intermediate middle third", as that sounds like a ton of work. Besides, as soon as you finished the study you'd need to extend the same exercise to all other quarterbacks for comparison ( more work !! ). What do you think you'd find? If I had to guess, I'd bet the same result as middle throws in general, with "deep and intermediate middle third" throws the least prevalent part of most quarterbacks' game, with Taylor's numbers smaller than average, but the difference between Taylor and everyone else a tiny number - since it's a subset of an already small number. Again : I'm not even denying it's a weaker part of Taylor's game, just suggesting some perspective is in order.....

Edited July 11, 2017 by grb

[grb]

 

This could be said about every QB who runs far better than he passes. History shows that once the league has figured out how to defend them, they're done.

 

(not picking on what you wrote, Thurman#1, it just popped out to me as a great real-life example to show others exactly what we have in TT)

 

 

The problem with the Great Tyrod Message Board War is everyone tends to get repetitious. So here we go again : Attempts to reduce Taylor to an incompetent & fatally flawed passer with hopelessly inadequate skills run into one major roadblock : His record when playing with a full offensive cast :

 

64% completion, 3,362 yards, 8+ yards per attempt, 26 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

 

Now, you can say those numbers aren't elite. You can say Tom Brady doesn't need receivers. You can even say Taylor's problems with his 2016 off-the-street receiving corps were partially his own fault. You'd probably be right. But you can't legitimately sell those numbers as coming from a hopelessly incompetent passer. At least not seriously, you can't.....

Edited July 11, 2017 by grb

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

The problem with the Great Tyrod Message Board War is everyone tends to get repetitious. So here we go again : Attempts to reduce Taylor to an incompetent & fatally flawed passer with hopelessly inadequate skills run in a major roadblock : His record when playing with a full offensive cast :

 

64% completion, 3,362 yards, 8+ yards per attempt, 26 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

 

Now, you can say those numbers aren't elite. You can say Tom Brady doesn't need receivers. You can even say Taylor's problems with his 2016 off-the-street receiving corps were partially his own fault. You'd probably be right. But you can't legitimately sell those numbers as coming from a hopelessly incompetent passer. At least not seriously, you can't.....

Really well said!!

 

I probably come across as a CoT guy on here when in reality I think he's a competent QB. I'd probably come across as a hater if this board was 180 degrees the other way. He's pretty good as those numbers illustrate. Anyone that believes you can plug anyone in and get the same results look all of the way back to Bledsoe and compare each QB side-by-side with him. He blows them out of the water. He's not like JP, Trent, Fitz, or EJ no matter how many times people try to convince themselves of that. You can upgrade for sure but let's deal in reality. Stats and facts should guide the conversation not feelings and perception.

[Gugny]

 

 

The problem with the Great Tyrod Message Board War is everyone tends to get repetitious. So here we go again : Attempts to reduce Taylor to an incompetent & fatally flawed passer with hopelessly inadequate skills run in one major roadblock : His record when playing with a full offensive cast :

 

64% completion, 3,362 yards, 8+ yards per attempt, 26 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

 

Now, you can say those numbers aren't elite. You can say Tom Brady doesn't need receivers. You can even say Taylor's problems with his 2016 off-the-street receiving corps were partially his own fault. You'd probably be right. But you can't legitimately sell those numbers as coming from a hopelessly incompetent passer. At least not seriously, you can't.....

 

I think the problem may be in comprehension.

 

My point that was that history has clearly shown that - in the NFL - Quarterbacks who run significantly better than they pass never last long and they're never part of winning teams. Never.

 

I'm not buying that Tyrod !@#$ing Taylor is going to break that cycle based on a bunch of fluff stats that have helped keep the Bills mired in mediocrity.

[Scott7975]

They should be good on 3rd down with that running game. I've never looked but I'd bet that the Bills have less yards to go on 3rd down than almost every team in the league.

I don't retract my borderline elite comment then. If anything I'd pull out the word borderline.

I'd like to look at the down and distance too but I think the opposite. They were in 3rd and long quite a bit last season. Happens with penalties and the run game was stuffed more than people think.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

He also had 506 yards rushing and a couple rushing TDs in those games, along with 1 lost fumble. I'd say 3,868 yards and 28 TDs to only 8 turnovers in what doesn't even equal a full season is production most would get behind.

 

And to be fair, Kirby said it was "borderline elite." I don't really agree with that if you consider just his passing numbers, but when you consider his production on the ground, which was just under 258 yards per game, there are only 9 NFL QBs averaging more yards passing per game in NFL history.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_per_g_career.htm

 

Sure, except most of Taylor's production on the ground comes on passing plays, very often making a positive play out of what would have otherwise been a sack.

production on the ground comes on passing plays???

 

So he aborted and freelanced?

[Runninrams]

 

 

The problem with the Great Tyrod Message Board War is everyone tends to get repetitious. So here we go again : Attempts to reduce Taylor to an incompetent & fatally flawed passer with hopelessly inadequate skills run in one major roadblock : His record when playing with a full offensive cast :

 

64% completion, 3,362 yards, 8+ yards per attempt, 26 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

 

Now, you can say those numbers aren't elite. You can say Tom Brady doesn't need receivers. You can even say Taylor's problems with his 2016 off-the-street receiving corps were partially his own fault. You'd probably be right. But you can't legitimately sell those numbers as coming from a hopelessly incompetent passer. At least not seriously, you can't.....

 

 

So he needs everyone healthy and everything to be perfect to put up average numbers?

 

there's a term for a QB like that.........BAD

[John from Riverside]

 

 

So he needs everyone healthy and everything to be perfect to put up average numbers?

 

there's a term for a QB like that.........BAD

With all due respect sir....this a real simplification which happened last year.

 

If you take away just about ANYONES number 1 receiver (which happened) that is going to affect your qb......with the exception of top 5 guys....which Tyrod is not. This does not take into affect Woods and his groin issues the last 2 years.....so now we are down to Goodwin?

 

Everyone does not have to be healthy...but you also cant lose key guys in an offense and then try to make excuses for that...the injuries did happen.

[Gugny]

With all due respect sir....this a real simplification which happened last year.

 

If you take away just about ANYONES number 1 receiver (which happened) that is going to affect your qb......with the exception of top 5 guys....which Tyrod is not. This does not take into affect Woods and his groin issues the last 2 years.....so now we are down to Goodwin?

 

Everyone does not have to be healthy...but you also cant lose key guys in an offense and then try to make excuses for that...the injuries did happen.

 

With due respect to you, John - haven't you had enough of making excuses for Tyrod? No one expects the guy to be Brady, but let's call a spade a spade, here. Unless every other player/unit is on top of their game, Tyrod never looks good and the Bills never win. The Bills need better.