Article on why 2017 passing game can make giant leap forward

[3rdand12]

 

Oh man! Everyone on this board wanted to draft him.. imagine how ballistic the board would've gone!

yep. poor kid

...the passing game marriage between Dennison & TT is either "one made in heaven" OR "one made in hell"....so stay tuned.....

I think it will be something to watch closely. My prediction is that they will "tell" Tyrod to throw the timing patterns

[Noogie75]

Kind of funny you ask this question because Taylor has been one of the best QBs on third and long over the last two years. That's actually a statistical fact.

[3rdand12]

 

 

Just a few to backup my statement.

well done

[Noogie75]

Yeah, but when in the game. Not when it matters.

[3rdand12]

Not doubting you, it's just interesting to think about

it sparked my recollection how they divided the offense. and then there ya go, Scott shows us.

Yeah, but when in the game. Not when it matters.

blanket statement. Quite a few folks have just made up there mind TT is NOT clutch.

I can feel the reasoning. But lets keep in mind who called the plays. He spent most of his Bills career running scripted play.

It was only after Lynn i saw him checking out of them with pre snap reads. or so it seemed

[Noogie75]

Taylor was 8th in the NFL in third and long conversion percentage on passing plays in 2016.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=

 

I can't find the numbers for 2015 at the moment, but I remember distinctly that in 2015 his numbers were even better. That website had the same numbers for 2015, but I can't find a link to those numbers for that year anymore. I probably have it somewhere, but if I recall correctly I think he was about fifth or sixth and third and long conversion percentage on passing plays in 2015.

 

 

Just think, for example, of that third and 24 or whatever yardage it was against Seattle with Taylor throwing a beauty to Robert Woods on the sideline for a conversion. Taylor is actually a QB you do want on third and long, probably because of the threat of him running as well. In 2015, I know that on passing plays where Taylor tucked the ball and ran (aka: scrambled) he converted 10 out of 16 of those third downs, which would actually increase his third down percentage in 2015 by more than 3% alone if those plays were factored in.

 

 

It's weird the way perception very often does not match reality when it comes to what Taylor has accomplished or even what he's good at.

Were the Jags any good???

it sparked my recollection how they divided the offense. and then there ya go, Scott shows us.

 

blanket statement. Quite a few folks have just made up there mind TT is NOT clutch.

I can feel the reasoning. But lets keep in mind who called the plays. He spent most of his Bills career running scripted play.

It was only after Lynn i saw him checking out of them with pre snap reads. or so it seemed

The Pitts game. That when he should of displayed his uniqueness and win the game. Everyone played in that game...

So now it's on the play calling ha ha ha. No budy he's just sorry when it comes to crunch time. These coaches are gonna look so bad. With him at QB...

[3rdand12]

Were the Jags any good???

 

The Pitts game. That when he should of displayed his uniqueness and win the game. Everyone played in that game...

So now it's on the play calling ha ha ha. No budy he's just sorry when it comes to crunch time. These coaches are gonna look so bad. With him at QB...

Most of us watched each game in detail.

And poor play does happen without question.

I take a holistic view.

But i hope we both watch this season hoping Dennison can bring the best out of Taylor ? If his ceiling has been reached, we have two first round picks and Peterman who brings a different skillset.

Thing is, and i am fine admitting it. If Taylor cannot step it up a notch or 3 under this O coordinator, who is going to give Tyrod every chance to succeed then i wil say move on. I have no problem saying this is the year he makes or breaks. But i am not ready to say that today

Cheers Noogie75

and

Go Bills !

[Noogie75]

Most of us watched each game in detail.

And poor play does happen without question.

I take a holistic view.

But i hope we both watch this season hoping Dennison can bring the best out of Taylor ? If his ceiling has been reached, we have two first round picks and Peterman who brings a different skillset.

Thing is, and i am fine admitting it. If Taylor cannot step it up a notch or 3 under this O coordinator, who is going to give Tyrod every chance to succeed then i wil say move on. I have no problem saying this is the year he makes or breaks. But i am not ready to say that today

Cheers Noogie75

and

Go Bills !

[3rdand12]

Bills are a frustrating team.

But we remain don't we?
New blood in the building may well overturn the curse

 

[Noogie75]

I think Cardale instead of the rook though. To me the rook is way behind C.J. Though he was drafted by this regime they seem to think otherwise. OTAs is without pads does not say anything. Henderson went from third string in OTAs his second year. They put in kujo. When the pads went on Henderson prevailed. Once again if they cut Cardale on speculation because the fans are do in love with the rook. It would continue our downfall.

[transplantbillsfan]

So some people were wondering how the Bills rank on 3rd down and distance. I decided to put the work in to figure this out. Going through game logs for 32 teams is going to take a really long time. I am starting with Buffalo for obvious reasons. Thus far I went through the first 3 games.

 

What I did was take a look at the distance on every third down play and then divide by the number of 3rd down attempts. This gives me the average down and distance. I am also going to list how many times out of how many third downs the Bills were at 3rd and 5 or greater.

 

First 3 games

Average distance on 3rd down: 8.83 yards

3rd down attempts: 37

Number of times 3rd and 5 or longer: 24

Percent of time Bills are in 3rd and 5 or longer: 65%

 

Doesn't look so good so far.

 

After I finish the Bills entire season I will likely make a new thread for it since this isn't really the topic of this thread. Sorry Transplant.

You know the work is already done, right?

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=

[MPT]

 

 

I do tend to ignore the stuff you bring up on this particular issue. I read it every time but you consistently don't directly address my specific objections. So yeah, I often don't bother to answer. Because you tend to be repeating the same things you've already said, and ignoring the problem rather than dealing with it. As you did here. I pointed out that the ESPN stats were combining areas of the field where Tyrod throws well with areas where he throws little, and thus masking his weaknesses. In response you compare other QBs stats to Tyrod's artificially elevated stats whose weaknesses at diagnosing his problems I just pointed out. So yeah, I do tend to ignore that, and other cases where points are missed. But you say here that you want to "save posters here some of your misinformation," so I'll do the same for yours.

 

I explained that those stats miss the point, examine the wrong areas of the field and bury the information about the area he has trouble with in data from areas he's good in. And you use the exact same stats and compare them to other QBs ... thereby missing the exact same point yet again..

 

You argue that since guys don't go deep middle that often it's not important, again missing the point which is that the reason they didn't go deep middle all that often is that they didn't go deep all that often. QBs don't throw half of their balls deep. Nonetheless those deep balls are some of the most important they throw as they have much higher chances for being chunk plays and they force the defense to respect the deep ball which then opens up the shorter areas for more efficiency. Why are those 5% - or whatever - of passes important? That's why. They're an extremely important part of the plans for the passing game and if they're not functioning well in one area or being predictable as to where they will go, it's important.

 

You ask if I charted all those other QBs in that area. Did you? If you didn't, your argument has the same weakness you're accusing mine of having.

 

But in fact as you're aware from our arguments on the old site, I don't need to do that, because a guy did it for us, He produced the dot charts for Brady and Rivers. And so I did at that time indeed go through those dot charts and count out the results and to the surprise of nobody they showed that both Rivers and Brady, unlike Tyrod, distributed their deep and intermediate balls pretty close to evenly across the field. They threw close to a third of their passes to the left third, close to a third of their passes to the center third and close to a third of their passes to the right third. Which made them far more difficult to predict and therefore depend than Tyrod who threw about 40% of his passes to the left third, 40% of his passes to the right third and slightly below 20% of his passes to the middle third. Making him predictable and handicapping the receivers.

 

I so wish those posts and 2015 dot charts were still available. They're not, but a ton of people saw the argument and none at the time disputed those charts. Those two distributed balls evenly across the field and weren't less successful in any area either. Whereas Tyrod distributed the ball unevenly and did poorly when he did throw it there. This was in 2015, and I can't claim to know what happened in 2016. But in 2015 the results were an estremely telling contrast.

 

And again, in 2015 nearly half of Tyrod's INTs came from that extremely small number of passes he threw to the deep and intermediate middle third. So in 2015 he threw little and poorly to the deep and intermediate middle third.

 

Which makes the defense's job easier and may well have been part of the adjustments that defenses made this last year that reduced his efficiency.

 

You do touch on the key point in your post here, which is this ... "So what?" Jeez. So a lot.

 

Guys who struggle to use a large area of the field - in this case the deep and intermediate middle third - make things a ton easier on the defense. The safeties can take a step or two away from the area that he doesn't use towards the area he uses well. The CBs can give less respect to the WRs moves towards the center of the field which reduces WR efficiency in the areas Tyrod is better at.

 

Defenses with a lot of time to look at tape tend to find ways to take away strengths and attack weaknesses. Not exploiting a huge area of the field allows defenses not to defend those areas. It makes the job of the offensive passing game harder. That's so what.

Read: "I've never said anything or put in any effort to back up my claims that Tyrod can't throw to an arbitrary section of the field, and I reject everyone else's fact-based research."

 

Like a kid who keeps making up nonsense qualifiers to his argument when he's proven wrong over and over again.

[Scott7975]

You know the work is already done, right?

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=

I did not but that's going by 8+ yards and I'm going by 5+. I don't view 5 yards as third and short. Maybe it is in today's world?

[transplantbillsfan]

I did not but that's going by 8+ yards and I'm going by 5+. I don't view 5 yards as third and short. Maybe it is in today's world?

It breaks it down into less than 3 yards, 3 to 7 yards, 8+ yards. Taylor ranks as followson those passing plays where he does not scramble (which in all probability would actually increase his percentage since he such an effective scrambler... he was 10/16 on such plays on 3rd down in 2015):

 

3rd and short- 10th (16 plays)

3rd and medium-27th (51 plays)

3rd and long- 8th (51 plays)

Edited July 20, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[BillsFan4]

Just a few to backup my statement.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. I knew Roman only coordinated the run game in SF, but I was under the impression he ran the entire offense here.

[Crusher]

Even I have lost interest in this subject and am now content to let things play out instead of bickering and going back and forth with both sides completely dug in...it's truly pointless.

 

My only real hope is that this season definitively answers the question about Taylor and if we should keep him or move on.

 

I doubt I can withstand another offseason of Taylor homers vs Taylor critics.

[GunnerBill]

I know, but some people will likely do so. I of course could still be completely wrong about that because no one truly knows what goes on behind closed doors, but I trust what I read in those articles. As well as some articles out of San Fran indicating the same exact thing.

The thing that would indicate Roman wasn't totally hands off is that the passing game in Buffalo and San Francisco under him look very very similar even in terms of tendencies. Though I believe Chris Palmer worked with him in both places so he likely had an impact too.

[Scott7975]

It breaks it down into less than 3 yards, 3 to 7 yards, 8+ yards. Taylor ranks as followson those passing plays where he does not scramble (which in all probability would actually increase his percentage since he such an effective scrambler... he was 10/16 on such plays on 3rd down in 2015):

 

3rd and short- 10th (16 plays)

3rd and medium-27th (51 plays)

3rd and long- 8th (51 plays)

Ok thanks. I guess I wasted some time. No biggie.

The thing that would indicate Roman wasn't totally hands off is that the passing game in Buffalo and San Francisco under him look very very similar even in terms of tendencies. Though I believe Chris Palmer worked with him in both places so he likely had an impact too.

 

That's a good point. I do know that there was a committee in San Fran with the play calling and that it was said pretty much the same thing here. I am sure Roman wasn't completely hands off the passing game.

Edited July 20, 2017 by Scott7975

[Gugny]

Here's a cute stat: 7 wins out of 16 games.

 

The team sucked. Including Tyrod Taylor.

 

LeSean McCoy and the O-line are the only ones who didn't suck.

 

Source: my own two !@#$ing eyes.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

Nice work transplant and Scott.

 

I think Cardale instead of the rook though. To me the rook is way behind C.J. Though he was drafted by this regime they seem to think otherwise. OTAs is without pads does not say anything. Henderson went from third string in OTAs his second year. They put in kujo. When the pads went on Henderson prevailed. Once again if they cut Cardale on speculation because the fans are do in love with the rook. It would continue our downfall.

You think the coaches are going to cut a guy because of the fans, and not because of what they see?