Article on why 2017 passing game can make giant leap forward

[Scott7975]

We have all this TT stats comparing them to other way better QBs. But we still have a losing season. Win, Win, Win is the name of the stat. Make the playoffs.

 

It's not like we had a great QB ourselves.

No we don't have a great QB. I never said we did. What we have is a pretty good QB. While QB is a big thing it isn't everything. If it were Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers wouldn't have such a terrible records over the last few years. Win, Win, Win, is the name of YOUR stat. Unfortunately that is a team stat, not a player stat.

 

There are only a few QBs in the league that can truly carry a team so well that the rest of the team doesn't matter. Unfortunately they don't come into the league often enough.

 

Yes, make the playoffs. I agree. If each individual player of the team played as well as Tyrod has they probably would of. Tyrod didn't play great, but the rest of the team, outside of a few players, played even worse. Why people want to put the blame of not making the playoffs on one player is beyond me. That's simple minded.

 

How did the "great" QBs do against those same bad teams. Those same bad teams that Tyrod did great against also played 15 other games each.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Scott7975

[Kirby Jackson]

God, I hate myself for being that guy but they +29 against the 2-14 SF and +20 against the 1-15 Browns. Stats can be very misleading.

Pittsburgh plays the Browns twice and Seattle and Arizona were ahead of the Bills with SF and the Rams twice. We can knitpick at schedules all day but you will play some good teams and some bad teams. Miami played the same teams and had a negative differential. Edited July 19, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[HappyDays]

Pittsburgh plays the Browns twice and Seattle and Arizona were ahead of the Bills with SF twice.

This has always been frustrating to me. You have people saying the Bills offense just played bad teams, or scored in garbage time - as if we're the only team that does that. But then someone tries to take out the two games Roman coached and see where our stats fall, and the same side says "that's not how this works." I mean how many teams fire their OC 2 weeks into the season? I feel like that's a little more important than how many garbage time points we scored.

Edited July 19, 2017 by HappyDays

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...the passing game marriage between Dennison & TT is either "one made in heaven" OR "one made in hell"....so stay tuned.....

[Noogie75]

No we don't have a great QB. I never said we did. What we have is a pretty good QB. While QB is a big thing it isn't everything. If it were Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers wouldn't have such a terrible records over the last few years. Win, Win, Win, is the name of YOUR stat. Unfortunately that is a team stat, not a player stat.

 

There are only a few QBs in the league that can truly carry a team so well that the rest of the team doesn't matter. Unfortunately they don't come into the league often enough.

 

Yes, make the playoffs. I agree. If each individual player of the team played as well as Tyrod has they probably would of. Tyrod didn't play great, but the rest of the team, outside of a few players, played even worse. Why people want to put the blame of not making the playoffs on one player is beyond me. That's simple minded.

 

How did the "great" QBs do against those same bad teams. Those same bad teams that Tyrod did great against also played 15 other games each.

[GunnerBill]

Ask the 15 teams tyrod beat the past two years if they fear him? Cause he beat them. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't have high hopes for the Bills this year and I have them beating Denver (one of the worst 5 records in the NFL 2017, book it now) and being 50/50 against the Raiders.

[Noogie75]

David Carr played great. Dak Prescott played great.Wilson played great. Mathews played great. Their teams weren't 31st in passing. Receivers were open he did not hit them. Yes, he didn't turn the ball over he also probably has the record in incompletions, specially in clutch time. I we were ever down with 4min. We lost the game because we don't a QB to bring us back. We would have rallied and won the Pitts game if we had a good QB.

[Mike in Horseheads]

Cease your crusade.

Looks like another one about to get fed up by one of the best mods,

[BuffaloHokie13]

David Carr played great. Dak Prescott played great.Wilson played great. Mathews played great. Their teams weren't 31st in passing. Receivers were open he did not hit them. Yes, he didn't turn the ball over he also probably has the record in incompletions, specially in clutch time. I we were ever down with 4min. We lost the game because we don't a QB to bring us back. We would have rallied and won the Pitts game if we had a good QB.

That awkward moment when the guy you lead with hasn't played since 2012 and hasn't been a starter since 2006...

[Big Gun]

I haven't thrown him under the bus, per se, but I think that those who have are making the same point you are. Tyrod was operating inside Roman's offense. The man is absolutely top tier when it comes to the run game and run play design, but his pass concepts are elementary and poor. The other thing that manifested was that Roman's preparation style focused far more on quantity than quality.

 

So, while I do not agree with removing games from data sets involving Tyrod based on coordinators, opponents, the weather, etc., I do agree with removing games he didn't play in.

 

 

Maybe, but maybe they are like that due to the QBs he had to work with. Smith, Kaepernick, Taylor, not exactally a whos who of great passing QBs and it could be argued Roman got the most out of those guys.

[Mike in Horseheads]

That awkward moment when the guy you lead with hasn't played since 2012 and hasn't been a starter since 2006...

You should have said "specially'

[Scott7975]

Update through the first 8 games

 

 

Average distance on 3rd down: 8.1 yards

3rd down attempts: 104

Number of times 3rd and 5 or longer: 72

Percent of time Bills are in 3rd and 5 or longer: 69%

[transplantbillsfan]

Overall, I agree. I'd also guess the best qbs have the best 3rd down %. That's money time.

 

I would bet the Bills have one of the shortest yards to convert on 3rd downs because of their game plans. Does anyone feel comfortable about Tyrod converting a 3rd and long?

Kind of funny you ask this question because Taylor has been one of the best QBs on third and long over the last two years. That's actually a statistical fact. Edited July 19, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Scott7975]

Maybe, but maybe they are like that due to the QBs he had to work with. Smith, Kaepernick, Taylor, not exactally a whos who of great passing QBs and it could be argued Roman got the most out of those guys.

It should also be known that the passing game wasn't designed by Roman. It was designed by our QB and WR coach. Roman has not run or designed a passing offense in his entire career including college.

[Kirby Jackson]

David Carr played great. Dak Prescott played great.Wilson played great. Mathews played great. Their teams weren't 31st in passing. Receivers were open he did not hit them. Yes, he didn't turn the ball over he also probably has the record in incompletions, specially in clutch time. I we were ever down with 4min. We lost the game because we don't a QB to bring us back. We would have rallied and won the Pitts game if we had a good QB.

David Carr last played in 2012. Shane Mathews last played in 2006.

 

Blake Bortles led the league with 257 incompletions. Tyrod was 22nd with 167. I couldn't find the all-time record but I know that you thought "he probably had the record for incompletions." He was close in 2016. There were only 21 guys playing that had more. There is probably only 500 or so guys that have had more incompletions in a season. Good take though...

It should also be known that the passing game wasn't designed by Roman. It was designed by our QB and WR coach. Roman has not run or designed a passing offense in his entire career including college.

That's interesting.

[Scott7975]

That's interesting.

 

 

✔ @viccarucci

New #Bills OC Greg Roman will concentrate mainly on run game. QB coach David Lee & WR coach Sanjay Lal will focus on passing game.

4:05 PM - 26 Jan 2015

 

But then, if Roman is going to focus predominantly on the run - which he did at both Stanford and San Francisco - then, perhaps, that would leave an opening for a passing game coordinator of some sort. That is a responsibility that Palmer could handle, and obviously, Carucci says that Lee and Lal will be involved, as well.

 

Roman (and former head coach Jim Harbaugh) were still roundly criticized in that four-year run because, among other reasons, the 49ers always had a "too many cooks in the kitchen" vibe regarding their offensive game-planning and play-calling. It doesn't appear that that will be going away with Roman and Ryan in Buffalo.

 

 

Greg Roman to focus on run game with Buffalo Bills

0 New, 75 comments

The Buffalo Bills will use a committee approach to game-planning. Newly hired offensive coordinator Greg Roman will focus on the run game, while QB coach David Lee and WR coach Sanjay Lal will focus on the passing game.

 

 

Just a few to backup my statement.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Scott7975

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Just a few to backup my statement.

Not doubting you, it's just interesting to think about

[Scott7975]

Not doubting you, it's just interesting to think about

I know, but some people will likely do so. I of course could still be completely wrong about that because no one truly knows what goes on behind closed doors, but I trust what I read in those articles. As well as some articles out of San Fran indicating the same exact thing.

[transplantbillsfan]

We've seen him do it, so I wouldn't rule out converting 3rd and long completely, but "confident" is probably a bit generous. Some of those were with his legs, and Woods was a nice blocking WR. But I agree with you.

 

Bills were 13th last season in 3rd down conversion percentage, so they weren't terrible. I'd like to see the 3rd and short rankings. You would think the better rushing teams in the league are at the top of that list.

Taylor was 8th in the NFL in third and long conversion percentage on passing plays in 2016.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=

 

I can't find the numbers for 2015 at the moment, but I remember distinctly that in 2015 his numbers were even better. That website had the same numbers for 2015, but I can't find a link to those numbers for that year anymore. I probably have it somewhere, but if I recall correctly I think he was about fifth or sixth and third and long conversion percentage on passing plays in 2015.

 

 

Just think, for example, of that third and 24 or whatever yardage it was against Seattle with Taylor throwing a beauty to Robert Woods on the sideline for a conversion. Taylor is actually a QB you do want on third and long, probably because of the threat of him running as well. In 2015, I know that on passing plays where Taylor tucked the ball and ran (aka: scrambled) he converted 10 out of 16 of those third downs, which would actually increase his third down percentage in 2015 by more than 3% alone if those plays were factored in.

 

 

It's weird the way perception very often does not match reality when it comes to what Taylor has accomplished or even what he's good at.

Edited July 19, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Scott7975]

Taylor was 8th in the NFL in third and long conversion percentage on passing plays in 2016.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=

 

I can't find the numbers for 2015 at the moment, but I remember distinctly that in 2015 his numbers were even better. That website had the same numbers for 2015, but I can't find a link to those numbers for that year anymore. I probably have it somewhere, but if I recall correctly I think he was about fifth or sixth and third and long conversion percentage on passing plays in 2015.

 

 

Just think, for example, of that third and 24 or whatever yardage it was against Seattle with Taylor throwing a beauty to Robert Woods on the sideline for a conversion. Taylor is actually a QB you do want on third and long, probably because of the threat of him running as well. In 2015, I know that on passing plays where Taylor tucked the ball and ran (aka: scrambled) he converted 10 out of 16 of those third downs, which would actually increase his third down percentage in 2015 by more than 3% alone if those plays were factored in.

 

 

It's weird the way perception very often does not match reality when it comes to what Taylor has accomplished or even what he's good at.

Good link. I was looking for that stat earlier. It kind of goes with some research I am doing. Everyone assumes we had a lot of 3rd and shorts because of our running game. Thus far, through 8 games, my research shows the exact opposite. It shows that Taylor had 3rd and 5 or more 72 out of 104 3rd down attempts or 69% of the time through the first 8 games. I doubt it gets much better but I plan to finish it during the week. Then people wonder why we had a lot of 3 and outs. Its because we were constantly 3rd and long to go with them.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Scott7975