Article on why 2017 passing game can make giant leap forward

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

Hot garbage. Just like every other Tyrod is good even though he can't pass thread that came before it

 

Any other 201 per game qb's in history get this much love ?

 

 

well, you seem to love him as you can not resist the thread(s).

 

you're a closet CoT there Maury, I mean Ryan?

 

Lol

[Bangarang]

Feels like I'm back at BBMB.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

 

 

Yup, Scott, that's one of the charts that Transplant has tried to use.

 

The problem is that as you can see at the top it's not dividing the field into thirds. It is dividing them by the numbers. The same old problem.

 

Which means that you're looking at charts where the field is divided this way:

 

The left side: 22.5% of the field

The right side: 22.5% of the field

The middle: 55% of the field

 

Even a guy who throws very little to the middle will look like he's throwing a lot there if you divide the field up that way. More, Tyrod threw often and well in 2015 to the area just inside the numbers, which is still the outer third of the field. Very well indeed, it was striking. So those stats are including in "the middle" all of those passes to the area he threw well and often to. Which drowns the numbers from the middle third.

 

This is just what I keep telling Transplant. Those numbers don't reveal what goes on in the middle third, the area Tyrod has problems in. They actually are constructed very well to hide, not reveal.

Here's a pretty good example of you guessing or twisting numbers to fit into your own narrative. I assume that you came up with those numbers because you went outside of the numbers and assumed that pro football focus was Considering the middle of the field everything from the sideline edge of the numbers all the way to the middle of the field. If that were the case your percentages would be accurate, but more than likely the left and right sides include the numbers themselves. and if that's the case, the numbers are actually this:

 

The left side: 26.3% of the field

The right side : 26.3% of the field

The Middle: 47.5% of the field

[Noogie75]

He could never throw specially in clutch.

If the argument is "we need to throw the ball up the seam to Clay more" - I agree. Otherwise I don't even follow why it's important?

[Kirby Jackson]

He could never throw specially in clutch.

Good post

[Figster]

Back on the BBMB the argment was over what the middle of the field is, and whether one person reviewing plays was more valid than other folks. If one defines the middle of the field as between the hashmarks, which seems reasonable, then the data is not as skewed. Thurman defined it mathematically as I recall by dividing the total width of the field by three. That is of course mathematically valid, but makes it much more difficult to accurately judge whether a pass was in the middle of the field vs. to the outer mathematical third. You'd pretty much have to have optical calipers on your computer screen and measure every pass. Same for the arguments about throwing to the deep and intermediate middle thirds; again you'd have to have very precise measurements on your screen as to whether the yard that differentiates between a short and intermediate throw. It becomes a "how many angels fit onto the head of a pin"type thing.

 

In general teams don't throw as much deep between the hashmarks because there's a lot more traffic there in terms of defenders. we'll see what the Bills do this year as far as the middle of the field. With Dennison coming in the offense will be new anyway and data from previous offense won't be terribly valid at that point.

Nice post/point

[Noogie75]

Kirby he is not good period. He will fail in any NFL system. Unless he is playing against bad teams he does not succeed. As soon as they make him beat you with the throws we lost the game. This year we have a very tough schedule. Let's see. I'm banking on failure. Until he proves different we are 1-3 at best with him in the first quarter of the season...

Success means dominate and win against​ good teams. Denver, Steelers, Pat's Seattle,Atl etc.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

Twilight Zone

 

Solid article, BTW.

Kirby he is not good period. He will fail in any NFL system. Unless he is playing against bad teams he does not succeed. As soon as they make him beat you with the throws we lost the game. This year we have a very tough schedule. Let's see. I'm banking on failure. Until he proves different we are 1-3 at best with him in the first quarter of the season...Success means dominate and win against​ good teams. Denver, Steelers, Pat's Seattle,Atl etc.

Do the other two fazes of the team play any role, or just Taylor and the offense? Edited July 18, 2017 by Drunken Pygmy Goat

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Kirby he is not good period. He will fail in any NFL system. Unless he is playing against bad teams he does not succeed. As soon as they make him beat you with the throws we lost the game. This year we have a very tough schedule. Let's see. I'm banking on failure. Until he proves different we are 1-3 at best with him in the first quarter of the season...

Success means dominate and win against​ good teams. Denver, Steelers, Pat's Seattle,Atl etc.

 

Derek Carr's Oakland Raiders have beaten 2 playoff teams in his 3 years at the helm. The Brock O led Broncos in 2015, and the Brock O led Texans in 2016. 1-3 in 2016 and 1-7 in 2015.

Do the other two fazes of the team play any role, or just Taylor and the offense?

 

I'm gonna go with yes.... they do.

[Kirby Jackson]

Kirby he is not good period. He will fail in any NFL system. Unless he is playing against bad teams he does not succeed. As soon as they make him beat you with the throws we lost the game. This year we have a very tough schedule. Let's see. I'm banking on failure. Until he proves different we are 1-3 at best with him in the first quarter of the season...

Success means dominate and win against​ good teams. Denver, Steelers, Pat's Seattle,Atl etc.

He's won 15 games and lost 14. The other guys to start with the same team are 0-3. 2 of those 3 losses were against teams that won 5 games.

 

I am not saying that he is great. He is okay but light years ahead of our other options. That's not debated around the league. It will be Tyrod in 2017 and he will either end up as THE guy or they will be taking a 1st rounder in 2018. Those are the realistic options.

[Noogie75]

Twilight Zone

 

Solid article, BTW.

Do the other two fazes of the team play any role, or just Taylor and the offense?

He should not worry about the other side he needs to keep the other side off the field more regularly defenses get tired of 3 and outs. That makes the defense look like dirt.

[John from Riverside]

For one, TT did put his team in a position to win a national championship. A third stringer won a national championship off the bench. For two, Taylor has been in this (West coast system) for 4 years in the NFL. With all of your excuses, with everything at his disposal he better do good. The no receivers excuses go out the door. Now going back to the Ohio State thing. They benched him back in college with an excuse right? Now did the win without him National Champs? Urban Myers is a good coach but he has won 3 National titles and only barely won one off them with his players.That was Tebows Jr year. The rest have been with other coaches' players. Cardale was Trussles recruiter and his first year at Florida it was 22 Zook starters. So he has not shown he can recruiter great caliber players yet. At Ohio State they were mostly Truss guys. Therefore I discredit his Championship ability. Back to TT he has failed to throw a three hundred yard game except for one barely. In my book he already failed.Two years is enough. Dak??? TT has been in the NFL 6 years. That is why he was drafted in round six. I can't wait to say I told you.

 

I got banned because someone feelings got hurt when everyone he says a lot worse things. But once again people are bias. Like the are for TT.

Training camp cannot start soon enough

[transplantbillsfan]

He should not worry about the other side he needs to keep the other side off the field more regularly defenses get tired of 3 and outs. That makes the defense look like dirt.

The Bills don't get very many three and outs with Taylor at the helm and an offense of coordinator focus on moving the chains rather than all or nothing plays the way Roman was. They were 14th in the league and three and out percentage in the 13 games Taylor was running Lynn's offense.

[Marty McFly]

He's won 15 games and lost 14. The other guys to start with the same team are 0-3. 2 of those 3 losses were against teams that won 5 games.

 

I am not saying that he is great. He is okay but light years ahead of our other options. That's not debated around the league. It will be Tyrod in 2017 and he will either end up as THE guy or they will be taking a 1st rounder in 2018. Those are the realistic options.

 

Agree. I expect Tyrod to do better this season its make or break for em. I billieve in em tho.

 

He should not worry about the other side he needs to keep the other side off the field more regularly defenses get tired of 3 and outs. That makes the defense look like dirt.

 

The defense made themselves look like dirt. Stop pinning everything on Tyrod.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

 

Yup, I've seen that chart and the article many times before. They're interesting and really do show a lot of fascinating data.

 

But as to the specifics of our argument here, they have a major problem. "In the cases of out-of-bounds throwaways, those dots are placed at the sideline near where the ball went out of bounds." This of course inflates the sideline numbers, as the writers readily admit. "Remember, the sideline data here are "polluted by those out-of-bounds throwaways that count as incompletions. As a result, the completion percentages near the edges of the field might be lower than you expect. It turns out the sideline is very important to the NFL quarterback, both for targeting receivers and for getting rid of the football."

 

They also mislead a bit about the frequency of passes to the middle, saying about passes of twenty yards or more that, "only 9 percent target the area between the hashes." Wow, sounds like almost nothing. But when you realize that between the hashes is only 11.5625% of the width of the field, seeing only 9% of throws there is not at all surprising.

 

Still, it was a fascinating article and I welcome the chance to read it again.

These discussions are only fun as long as you are grounded and some sort of reality, which you are no longer a part of.

 

Right now you should go take a look at that chart. If 69% of the passes thrown in 2012 were outside the numbers that means that 31% were "inside the numbers." I don't know if those middle numbers of 31% start from the outer or inner edge of the numbers, but 31% is less than 1/3rd already.

 

Look at all those passes that come into your beloved 1/3 of the field just inside those numbers. There are a lot!

 

What percentage of those sideline throws do you honestly think or throwaways? Furthermore, what percentage of those sideline throwaways were plays that were not designed to go to the sidelines anyway?

 

If you honestly think that those sideline throwaways combined with those passes inside the numbers that equate to your outer 1/3 of the field still somehow translate into an even distribution across the deep portion of the field, you're in fantasyland.

 

This is fun and all, but it's clear even with evidence right in front of you, you'll fight with all of your might just so you can be right.

 

Sounds like a good nursery rhyme with you as the main character

Edited July 18, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...Dennison designed 2017 offense will define this club's direction in 2017 and beyond......personnel to run it will be the variable...........

[Noogie75]

The Bills don't get very many three and outs with Taylor at the helm and an offense of coordinator focus on moving the chains rather than all or nothing plays the way Roman was. They were 14th in the league and three and out percentage in the 13 games Taylor was running Lynn's offense.

[Noogie75]

I love it when people put a lot off optimism. We will be playing good teams the whole schedule. TT is gonna have 200yards passing with all the weapons,200+ rushing we will loose. Then exxxxxcuses. It's the play calling, it was the refs, it was the o-line, it wasn't his fault on the interception... Last year they did have Woods who signed for Millions. He had TE, he had enough to do better. But it's not him. That's why the didn't pay him all that money. Oh he didn't have Sammy. Lets blame Sammy. We should have won the first Jets game. But the offense was... We should har rallied back the Pitts game.

[Kirby Jackson]

I love it when people put a lot off optimism. We will be playing good teams the whole schedule. TT is gonna have 200yards passing with all the weapons,200+ rushing we will loose. Then exxxxxcuses. It's the play calling, it was the refs, it was the o-line, it wasn't his fault on the interception... Last year they did have Woods who signed for Millions. He had TE, he had enough to do better. But it's not him. That's why the didn't pay him all that money. Oh he didn't have Sammy. Lets blame Sammy. We should have won the first Jets game. But the offense was... We should har rallied back the Pitts game.

I guess what we keep coming back to you say things like they will lose, yet he has won more games than he has lost. Saying things doesn't make it true. The facts say that the Bills were a top 12 scoring offense and top 10 DVOA each of the last two years. There are 32 teams. They are in the top 1/3. None of that is subjective or debatable. It's not some fake optimism or anything, that's just what it is.

[Noogie75]

In crucial situations TT is straight sorry. When we had Orton he brought us back against Minn. The defense played horrible. They gave up over 500 yards on offense we still won. Why? Because when the game is on the line you gotta make plays. If you can't do that you ain't worth it to me. I love Jimmy Johnson. No excuses none.if you can't do it when the goin gets tough you are out.

I meant defense.

I guess what we keep coming back to you say things like they will lose, yet he has won more games than he has lost. Saying things doesn't make it true. The facts say that the Bills were a top 12 scoring offense and top 10 DVOA each of the last two years. There are 32 teams. They are in the top 1/3. None of that is subjective or debatable. It's not some fake optimism or anything, that's just what it is.

It is not good enough if you can't win. Bottom line. We won against sorry teams. He is one game above 500. 6 years in the league. Stats can be deceiving. If you play a garbage team then yeah. I wanna compare him to John Kidna. When they asked him to start with a bunch of weapons he ripped it up. Palmer did not beat him out they had to give him the job. That is a classic example of how it should be.