Article on why 2017 passing game can make giant leap forward

[transplantbillsfan]

I don't think Taylor would improve no matter what you do. Once again he is to inconsistent. It is still the NFL defenses are going to adjust an will make you beat them with the passing game.

 

Yes, but he still has to deliver in the clutch. End of game clutch. Not just a half.

Every time we need to come back and win or get a key first down we fail and loose. Like always thanks to TT.

That's what happened with JP Losman. We failed.

Except for his game winning drives against Tennessee and Houston last year and Jacksonville this year. So 3 games is "never?"

 

And "like always thanks to TT"? Seriously?

 

Did you watch the last Game he played in or the game against Seattle?

Cardale Jones... Cardale Jones... Cardale Jones...

Wow I forgot that you were the guy that was banned in record time on this board for pushing a guy who might be on another teams practice squad this year.

 

Bravo!

This statement, along with the formatting of your post tells me everything I need to know.

Sounds like a previously band troll under many different names on multiple boards.

[transplantbillsfan]

So I posted this one on bbbmb about two years ago. It's the chart from 2012 but I can't find anybody that charts out the league as a whole anymore

 

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fespngrantland.files.wordpress.com%2F2013%2F09%2Fall_nfl_passes_115211.jpg%3Fw%3D694&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fgrantland.com%2Fthe-triangle%2Fpass-atlas-a-map-of-where-nfl-quarterbacks-throw-the-ball%2F&docid=GF4ec4Lpzh1L2M&tbnid=vpxVSUQD5uVIMM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwiH85v04JDVAhUow4MKHaodDXQQMwifAigCMAI..i&w=694&h=708&bih=560&biw=360&q=Data%20visualization&ved=0ahUKEwiH85v04JDVAhUow4MKHaodDXQQMwifAigCMAI&iact=mrc&uact=8

 

Also a really good article or about it

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/pass-atlas-a-map-of-where-nfl-quarterbacks-throw-the-ball/

Hmmm... fascinating...

 

The chart also immediately reveals the importance of the sideline, particularly downfield. Of passes thrown more than 20 yards, 69 percent are directed between the numbers and the sideline, while only 9 percent target the area between the hashes.

 

 

Whoa...

 

and,

 

Although at first glance the pattern may appear mostly symmetric, NFL quarterbacks target receivers on the right side (46 percent) of the field more than the left side (41 percent).

 

So given this article with this chart and data along with the 2013 chart that looks about the same, it sure seems like QBs don't throw to the deep middle (especially if we were to divide the field in thirds ) nearly as much as they throw to the deep side sidelines.

 

 

 

 

 

Found my keys, they were right here under the streetlightwhere things are well lit, after all. I'm going to the store to get some Scotch, you guys want some?

[BillsFan4]

If he can't put the team on his shoulders he ain't worth it. What did Cardale do at Ohio State as a third string. Put the team on his back with no excuses. Some times the other team scores on us they are pros too. As a QB you have to overcome and keep their offense of the field. Defense get tired if you score early then punt the rest of the way. Can't wait till TT fails. I'mma be like, "I Told you". He can't hang.

There are a very small handful of QBs in the NFL that can consistently put their a team on their shoulders and win games, and even the few who can were not necessarily able to do it in their first couple seasons starting, and almost definitely not on a consistent basis.

 

If the Bills are getting rid of every QB that's unable to do that consistently, we won't have a QB to play the games.

 

Tyrod is by no means elite. He has plenty of flaws to work on to be considered a franchise type QB, and he may never get to that level. But like him or not, he's the best QB the Bills have had in easily over a decade, probably more like 2. You don't just throw him away for the dream of an upgrade (and no, Cardale is by no means an upgrade as of now).

All we can hope is that our new GM and coach will continue to draft and develop QBs until one of them cements themselves as that true franchise caliber guy.

But there's nothing wrong with starting Tyrod until someone legitimately EARNS the starting job away from him. If Cardale is able to do that, great! But he hasn't even come close to doing it yet. By almost all accounts he has really been struggling so far, and is 4th (last) on the depth chart right now for a reason...

 

I also disagree about Cardale being able to put a team on his back. IMO I've seen him do it once, maybe a couple times if I'm being generous. His very first start was fantastic, but he tailed off in his next 2, then struggled big time the next season. Ezekiel Elliott and Ohio State's run game carried that team way more than Cardale ever did. That team was fantastic, and one of the best coached teams in college football. That 2014 offense was the 2nd highest scoring offense in team history (only behind the 2013 offense) and it had nothing to do with Cardale (he didn't even play till the last 3 games to end the season). That offense was built to put up points.

Ezekiel Elliott and QB JT Barrett carried that team in 2014 and Elliott again in 2015, and even though Barrett didn't start the first 7 games he still blew Cardale out of the water in TDs.

In 2014 Barrett threw for 34 TDs, Elliott had 18. In 2015 Elliott ran for 23 TDs, JT Barrett accounted for 22 TDs (11 rushing, 11 passing, and that was with Cardale starting the first 7 games), and Cardale accounted for a total of 10...

 

I would also argue that Tyrod carried his college team to more wins than Cardale ever did at Ohio St. But college is college, and the NFL is the NFL. All that matters is what he's able to do in the NFL, and so far he hasn't been able to do squat. He struggled even running the practice squad! I have really seen nothing from Cardale that makes me think he has the ability to put a team on his back and carry it so far. I'd be thrilled if he does, but as of now it looks like there's a better chance he will be cut, and if he's lucky will end up on some team's practice squad. He has a ways to go before he's even close to ready to be an NFL starter, and that's just the reality of the situation right now (not to sound like a jerk or anything).

 

And last - it's terrible that you are rooting for TT to fail. That means you are rooting against the Buffalo Bills. Hard to call yourself a Bills fan when you say you "can't wait for TT to fail"...

[GunnerBill]

No we won't. There isn't a competition being held. We may see someone emerge if Tyrod gets injured but there aren't guys competing to start now.

We will see in camp.......... we will see who wins the #2 job (and hence who gets a shot if Tyrod is injured or possibly late on if the season is lost). To think that there is any competition for the starter job is ludicrous.

Edited July 18, 2017 by GunnerBill

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Except for his game winning drives against Tennessee and Houston last year and Jacksonville this year. So 3 games is "never?"

 

 

Sounds like a previously band troll under many different names on multiple boards.

A come from behind means you have to be behind, IIRC one game the score was tied.

 

You sound like 2009 with that troll post tp.

 

with more suspensions and you will be banned.

[Thurman#1]

2016 passing chart fwiw

 

 

 

 

Yup, Scott, that's one of the charts that Transplant has tried to use.

 

The problem is that as you can see at the top it's not dividing the field into thirds. It is dividing them by the numbers. The same old problem.

 

Which means that you're looking at charts where the field is divided this way:

 

The left side: 22.5% of the field

The right side: 22.5% of the field

The middle: 55% of the field

 

Even a guy who throws very little to the middle will look like he's throwing a lot there if you divide the field up that way. More, Tyrod threw often and well in 2015 to the area just inside the numbers, which is still the outer third of the field. Very well indeed, it was striking. So those stats are including in "the middle" all of those passes to the area he threw well and often to. Which drowns the numbers from the middle third.

 

This is just what I keep telling Transplant. Those numbers don't reveal what goes on in the middle third, the area Tyrod has problems in. They actually are constructed very well to hide, not reveal.

Edited July 18, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

 

Yup, Scott, that's one of the charts that Transplant has tried to use.

 

The problem is that as you can see at the top it's not dividing the field into thirds. It is dividing them by the numbers. The same old problem.

 

Which means that you're looking at charts where the field is divided this way:

 

The left side: 22.5% of the field

The right side: 22.5% of the field

The middle: 55% of the field

 

Even a guy who throws very little to the middle will look like he's throwing a lot there if you divide the field up that way. More, Tyrod threw often and well in 2015 to the area just inside the numbers, which is still the outer third of the field. Very well indeed, it was striking. So those stats are including in "the middle" all of those passes to the area he threw well and often to. Which drowns the numbers from the middle third.

 

This is just what I keep telling Transplant. Those numbers don't reveal what goes on in the middle third, the area Tyrod has problems in. They actually are constructed very well to hide, not reveal.

Okay, so to be clear he throws to the numbers more than to between the numbers? I'm glad that's settled because it REALLY changes things. Does it really matter if he is throwing to the numbers or between them? The only thing that it impacts is the battle between you and transplant. If we divide the field into 7ths which one of you becomes more right?

[Thurman#1]

So I posted this one on bbbmb about two years ago. It's the chart from 2012 but I can't find anybody that charts out the league as a whole anymore

 

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fespngrantland.files.wordpress.com%2F2013%2F09%2Fall_nfl_passes_115211.jpg%3Fw%3D694&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fgrantland.com%2Fthe-triangle%2Fpass-atlas-a-map-of-where-nfl-quarterbacks-throw-the-ball%2F&docid=GF4ec4Lpzh1L2M&tbnid=vpxVSUQD5uVIMM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwiH85v04JDVAhUow4MKHaodDXQQMwifAigCMAI..i&w=694&h=708&bih=560&biw=360&q=Data%20visualization&ved=0ahUKEwiH85v04JDVAhUow4MKHaodDXQQMwifAigCMAI&iact=mrc&uact=8

 

Also a really good article or about it

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/pass-atlas-a-map-of-where-nfl-quarterbacks-throw-the-ball/

 

 

Yup, I've seen that chart and the article many times before. They're interesting and really do show a lot of fascinating data.

 

But as to the specifics of our argument here, they have a major problem. "In the cases of out-of-bounds throwaways, those dots are placed at the sideline near where the ball went out of bounds." This of course inflates the sideline numbers, as the writers readily admit. "Remember, the sideline data here are "polluted” by those out-of-bounds throwaways that count as incompletions. As a result, the completion percentages near the edges of the field might be lower than you expect. It turns out the sideline is very important to the NFL quarterback, both for targeting receivers and for getting rid of the football."

 

They also mislead a bit about the frequency of passes to the middle, saying about passes of twenty yards or more that, "only 9 percent target the area between the hashes." Wow, sounds like almost nothing. But when you realize that between the hashes is only 11.5625% of the width of the field, seeing only 9% of throws there is not at all surprising.

 

Still, it was a fascinating article and I welcome the chance to read it again.

Okay, so to be clear he throws to the numbers more than to between the numbers? I'm glad that's settled because it REALLY changes things. Does it really matter if he is throwing to the numbers or between them? The only thing that it impacts is the battle between you and transplant. If we divide the field into 7ths which one of you becomes more right?

 

 

I think it makes clear that you don't understand what I said.

 

To simplify as much as possible - I've written too much recently - Tyrod throws an awful lot less to the deep and intermediate middle third of the field than he does to the deep and intermediate outside thirds. In 2015 I had the exact numbers but they're gone with the old site. But it was roughly 40%+ / 20%- / 40%+. And Brady and Rivers were close to 33% / 33% / 33%, making them less predictable and harder to defense.

Edited July 18, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

Yup, I've seen that chart and the article many times before. They're interesting and really do show a lot of fascinating data.

 

But as to the specifics of our argument here, they have a major problem. "In the cases of out-of-bounds throwaways, those dots are placed at the sideline near where the ball went out of bounds." This of course inflates the sideline numbers, as the writers readily admit. "Remember, the sideline data here are "polluted by those out-of-bounds throwaways that count as incompletions. As a result, the completion percentages near the edges of the field might be lower than you expect. It turns out the sideline is very important to the NFL quarterback, both for targeting receivers and for getting rid of the football."

 

They also mislead a bit about the frequency of passes to the middle, saying about passes of twenty yards or more that, "only 9 percent target the area between the hashes." Wow, sounds like almost nothing. But when you realize that between the hashes is only 11.5625% of the width of the field, seeing only 9% of throws there is not at all surprising.

 

Still, it was a fascinating article and I welcome the chance to read it again.

 

 

 

I think it makes clear that you don't understand what I said.

 

To simplify as much as possible - I've written too much recently - Tyrod throws an awful lot less to the deep and intermediate middle third of the field than he does to the deep and intermediate outside thirds. In 2015 I had the exact numbers but they're gone with the old site. But it was roughly 40%+ / 20%- / 40%+. And Brady and Rivers were close to 33% / 33% / 33%, making them less predictable and harder to defense.

Okay, but we are in the weeds by arguing over 3rds vs. 5ths. So Tyrod throws the ball 29 times a game. 11 times left, 11 times right and 7 times to the middle. You want to see 9.6 left, 9.6 right and 9.6 middle. That will change everything.

[HappyDays]

Okay, but we are in the weeds by arguing over 3rds vs. 5ths. So Tyrod throws the ball 29 times a game. 11 times left, 11 times right and 7 times to the middle. You want to see 9.6 left, 9.6 right and 9.6 middle. That will change everything.

It's even less of an impact than that because we're talking about just Tyrod's deep throws. So if Tyrod throws 5 deep throws in a game, that's the throws we're saying need to be distributed more evenly. I can't bring myself to care even a little.

[Kirby Jackson]

It's even less of an impact than that because we're talking about just Tyrod's deep throws. So if Tyrod throws 5 deep throws in a game, that's the throws we're saying need to be distributed more evenly. I can't bring myself to care even a little.

If the argument is "we need to throw the ball up the seam to Clay more" - I agree. Otherwise I don't even follow why it's important? Edited July 18, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[GunnerBill]

Round and round and round and round we go

 

"Tyrod loves me, he loves me not, he loves me, he loves me not...."

[Thurman#1]

Again, with whatever two charts you use for Brady and rivers, there were at least a dozen more from other quarterbacks and even Brady and Rivers from different years that blatantly demonstrate that quarterbacks simply don't go to the deep middle that much. By percentage, deep middle throws are the smallest percentage that a QB makes.

 

For whatever amount of work you put into watching Taylor make every throw and charting all of those middle thirds to the deep and intermediate sections of the field, your conclusions are questionable at best, simply because you didn't put the rest of the necessary work and to draw those conclusions. You even said when you presented this initially that the problem with Taylor throwing to the deep middle portion of the field had more to do with frequency than anything else because frequency was what made him predictable. I don't think that anyone really would've disputed that Taylor needed to be better throwing to the deep middle portion of the field when he threw there. The big issue that you hold so strongly to is the fact that frequency was the issue, when it's clearly not.

 

 

There were no other dot charts. Three, despite many including me begging for more.

 

Three dot charts, Tyrod, Brady and Rivers. I wish there had been more. There weren't. The data on the other QBs you're referring to is from those same charts you're referring to that don't look at the relevant areas.

 

And in 2015 when I did the exact charts and the dot charts were available, the issue was with frequency but also with very bad results to that area. Two of his six INTs that year came from the very few throws he put to the deep and intermediate middle and his completion percentage was also really bad there. I was saying that in 2016 I can't comment on quality. In 2015, I can and it was awful. To that area of the field he threw little and badly in 2015.

[oldmanfan]

Back on the BBMB the argment was over what the middle of the field is, and whether one person reviewing plays was more valid than other folks. If one defines the middle of the field as between the hashmarks, which seems reasonable, then the data is not as skewed. Thurman defined it mathematically as I recall by dividing the total width of the field by three. That is of course mathematically valid, but makes it much more difficult to accurately judge whether a pass was in the middle of the field vs. to the outer mathematical third. You'd pretty much have to have optical calipers on your computer screen and measure every pass. Same for the arguments about throwing to the deep and intermediate middle thirds; again you'd have to have very precise measurements on your screen as to whether the yard that differentiates between a short and intermediate throw. It becomes a "how many angels fit onto the head of a pin"type thing.

 

In general teams don't throw as much deep between the hashmarks because there's a lot more traffic there in terms of defenders. we'll see what the Bills do this year as far as the middle of the field. With Dennison coming in the offense will be new anyway and data from previous offense won't be terribly valid at that point.

[HappyDays]

If the argument is "we need to throw the ball ip the seam to Clay more" - I agree. Otherwise I don't even follow why it's important?

Actually I undersold his argument somewhat because the intermediate part of the field is included too. But it's not like Tyrod never throws there, it's just slightly below the average that a QB like Brady is at. On a per-game volume basis it isn't going to matter. I don't think DCs get this far into analysis. "Ok we need to defend the intermediate middle of the field 33% than we usually do against the Bills..." It isn't a big enough gap to make it a disadvantage. There have been games where we utilized the middle of the field a bunch of times more than we did in other games, so if defenses really want to try and use that marginal difference against us it's not like our offense becomes handicapped.

 

I also think the whole "middle of the field" thing will look way different this year with a brand new offense. It's last on my list of concerns for the Bills offense in 2017.

[Noogie75]

Except for his game winning drives against Tennessee and Houston last year and Jacksonville this year. So 3 games is "never?"

 

And "like always thanks to TT"? Seriously?

 

Did you watch the last Game he played in or the game against Seattle?

 

Wow I forgot that you were the guy that was banned in record time on this board for pushing a guy who might be on another teams practice squad this year.

 

Bravo!

 

Sounds like a previously band troll under many different names on multiple boards.

Yes, I saw the Seattle game. What was the outcome??? Loss.

There are a very small handful of QBs in the NFL that can consistently put their a team on their shoulders and win games, and even the few who can were not necessarily able to do it in their first couple seasons starting, and almost definitely not on a consistent basis.

 

If the Bills are getting rid of every QB that's unable to do that consistently, we won't have a QB to play the games.

 

Tyrod is by no means elite. He has plenty of flaws to work on to be considered a franchise type QB, and he may never get to that level. But like him or not, he's the best QB the Bills have had in easily over a decade, probably more like 2. You don't just throw him away for the dream of an upgrade (and no, Cardale is by no means an upgrade as of now).

All we can hope is that our new GM and coach will continue to draft and develop QBs until one of them cements themselves as that true franchise caliber guy.

But there's nothing wrong with starting Tyrod until someone legitimately EARNS the starting job away from him. If Cardale is able to do that, great! But he hasn't even come close to doing it yet. By almost all accounts he has really been struggling so far, and is 4th (last) on the depth chart right now for a reason...

 

I also disagree about Cardale being able to put a team on his back. IMO I've seen him do it once, maybe a couple times if I'm being generous. His very first start was fantastic, but he tailed off in his next 2, then struggled big time the next season. Ezekiel Elliott and Ohio State's run game carried that team way more than Cardale ever did. That team was fantastic, and one of the best coached teams in college football. That 2014 offense was the 2nd highest scoring offense in team history (only behind the 2013 offense) and it had nothing to do with Cardale (he didn't even play till the last 3 games to end the season). That offense was built to put up points.

Ezekiel Elliott and QB JT Barrett carried that team in 2014 and Elliott again in 2015, and even though Barrett didn't start the first 7 games he still blew Cardale out of the water in TDs.

In 2014 Barrett threw for 34 TDs, Elliott had 18. In 2015 Elliott ran for 23 TDs, JT Barrett accounted for 22 TDs (11 rushing, 11 passing, and that was with Cardale starting the first 7 games), and Cardale accounted for a total of 10...

 

I would also argue that Tyrod carried his college team to more wins than Cardale ever did at Ohio St. But college is college, and the NFL is the NFL. All that matters is what he's able to do in the NFL, and so far he hasn't been able to do squat. He struggled even running the practice squad! I have really seen nothing from Cardale that makes me think he has the ability to put a team on his back and carry it so far. I'd be thrilled if he does, but as of now it looks like there's a better chance he will be cut, and if he's lucky will end up on some team's practice squad. He has a ways to go before he's even close to ready to be an NFL starter, and that's just the reality of the situation right now (not to sound like a jerk or anything).

 

And last - it's terrible that you are rooting for TT to fail. That means you are rooting against the Buffalo Bills. Hard to call yourself a Bills fan when you say you "can't wait for TT to fail"...

[Noogie75]

For one, TT did put his team in a position to win a national championship. A third stringer won a national championship off the bench. For two, Taylor has been in this (West coast system) for 4 years in the NFL. With all of your excuses, with everything at his disposal he better do good. The no receivers excuses go out the door. Now going back to the Ohio State thing. They benched him back in college with an excuse right? Now did the win without him National Champs? Urban Myers is a good coach but he has won 3 National titles and only barely won one off them with his players.That was Tebows Jr year. The rest have been with other coaches' players. Cardale was Trussles recruiter and his first year at Florida it was 22 Zook starters. So he has not shown he can recruiter great caliber players yet. At Ohio State they were mostly Truss guys. Therefore I discredit his Championship ability. Back to TT he has failed to throw a three hundred yard game except for one barely. In my book he already failed.Two years is enough. Dak??? TT has been in the NFL 6 years. That is why he was drafted in round six. I can't wait to say I told you.

Except for his game winning drives against Tennessee and Houston last year and Jacksonville this year. So 3 games is "never?"

 

And "like always thanks to TT"? Seriously?

 

Did you watch the last Game he played in or the game against Seattle?

 

Wow I forgot that you were the guy that was banned in record time on this board for pushing a guy who might be on another teams practice squad this year.

 

Bravo!

 

Sounds like a previously band troll under many different names on multiple boards.

I got banned because someone feelings got hurt when everyone he says a lot worse things. But once again people are bias. Like the are for TT.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

For one, TT did put his team in a position to win a national championship. A third stringer won a national championship off the bench. For two, Taylor has been in this (West coast system) for 4 years in the NFL. With all of your excuses, with everything at his disposal he better do good. The no receivers excuses go out the door. Now going back to the Ohio State thing. They benched him back in college with an excuse right? Now did the win without him National Champs? Urban Myers is a good coach but he has won 3 National titles and only barely won one off them with his players.That was Tebows Jr year. The rest have been with other coaches' players. Cardale was Trussles recruiter and his first year at Florida it was 22 Zook starters. So he has not shown he can recruiter great caliber players yet. At Ohio State they were mostly Truss guys. Therefore I discredit his Championship ability. Back to TT he has failed to throw a three hundred yard game except for one barely. In my book he already failed.Two years is enough. Dak??? TT has been in the NFL 6 years. That is why he was drafted in round six. I can't wait to say I told you.

 

I got banned because someone feelings got hurt when everyone he says a lot worse things. But once again people are bias. Like the are for TT.

 

 

 

BuffaloBud420 is smmmmmmmoooooookin!!

[Noogie75]

It might be a demographic issue why I got banned.

[Maury Ballstein]

Hot garbage. Just like every other Tyrod is good even though he can't pass thread that came before it

 

Any other 201 per game qb's in history get this much love ?

 

Check out these graphs !! Lololol.

Edited July 18, 2017 by Maury Ballstein