Article on why 2017 passing game can make giant leap forward

[Spiderweb]

The only way the passing game will take a step forward is if Peterman beats out Tyrod in training camp.

 

Without a shred of evidence given that Peterman has not played a single down in the NFL, you're able to make that statement?

 

Sent from my LGLS992 using Tapatalk

 

 

[Scott7975]

Do you happen to have a chart that shows the league average?

So I posted this one on bbbmb about two years ago. It's the chart from 2012 but I can't find anybody that charts out the league as a whole anymore

 

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fespngrantland.files.wordpress.com%2F2013%2F09%2Fall_nfl_passes_115211.jpg%3Fw%3D694&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fgrantland.com%2Fthe-triangle%2Fpass-atlas-a-map-of-where-nfl-quarterbacks-throw-the-ball%2F&docid=GF4ec4Lpzh1L2M&tbnid=vpxVSUQD5uVIMM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwiH85v04JDVAhUow4MKHaodDXQQMwifAigCMAI..i&w=694&h=708&bih=560&biw=360&q=Data%20visualization&ved=0ahUKEwiH85v04JDVAhUow4MKHaodDXQQMwifAigCMAI&iact=mrc&uact=8

 

Also a really good article or about it

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/pass-atlas-a-map-of-where-nfl-quarterbacks-throw-the-ball/

Edited July 17, 2017 by Scott7975

[Noogie75]

I think Dawkins can beat out Mills at RT and will help a bunch in pass protection. I'm trying not to be overly positive but I'm very excited about this draft class, especially the top 3.

I still think that passing offense hinges on Sammy's availability.

I don't think Taylor would improve no matter what you do. Once again he is to inconsistent. It is still the NFL defenses are going to adjust an will make you beat them with the passing game.

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/07/07/west-coast-offense-tyrod-taylor-buffalo-bills/

 

Looks into reasons the Bills passing game and Taylor could be significantly improved in 2017.

 

Talks a little about the changes in personnel, but the interesting stuff is when it dissects the passing concepts we're supposedly going to be executing this year: play-action passes, simple route concepts, the shallow cross, etc.

 

 

Closes with:

 

Yes, but he still has to deliver in the clutch. End of game clutch. Not just a half.

Every time we need to come back and win or get a key first down we fail and loose. Like always thanks to TT.

That's what happened with JP Losman. We failed.

[Kirby Jackson]

I don't think Taylor would improve no matter what you do. Once again he is to inconsistent. It is still the NFL defenses are going to adjust an will make you beat them with the passing game.

 

Yes, but he still has to deliver in the clutch. End of game clutch. Not just a half.

Every time we need to come back and win or get a key first down we fail and loose. Like always thanks to TT.

That's what happened with JP Losman. We failed.

...except for the most recent game that he played.

[BuffaloHokie13]

I don't think Taylor would improve no matter what you do. Once again he is to inconsistent. It is still the NFL defenses are going to adjust an will make you beat them with the passing game.

 

Yes, but he still has to deliver in the clutch. End of game clutch. Not just a half.

Every time we need to come back and win or get a key first down we fail and loose. Like always thanks to TT.

That's what happened with JP Losman. We failed.

Every time, except for the times that he got 4th quarter comebacks.

 

And seriously, Losman?

Losman: 33 Starts, Bills went 10-23 with him as a starter, 59.3% CMP%, 3.5% TD%, 3.6% INT%, 6.6 YPA, 147.9 YPG, 75.6 QB Rating, 4.40 ANY/A

Tyrod: 29 Starts, Bills went 15-14 with him as a starter, 62.6% CMP%, 4.5% TD%, 1.5% INT%, 7.4 YPA, 208.9 YPG, 94.2 QB Rating, 6.55 ANY/A

 

And that completely ignores Tyrod's rushing contributions compared to JP's. Honestly a pathetic comparison.

[Noogie75]

He didn't win did he?

Maybe your right about comparing them but we could compare the situation. It seems like TT has an upside. He does not. He is who he is. An athlete playing QB. Who did we beat that was actually considered a good team.

So he did good in 15 games in two years. That is not good and once again who did we beat that is good.

Yeah he does not throw a lot. When he actually has to throw to win... Failing is the way.

[BuffaloHokie13]

He didn't win did he?

Maybe your right about comparing them but we could compare the situation. It seems like TT has an upside. He does not. He is who he is. An athlete playing QB. Who did we beat that was actually considered a good team.

So he did good in 15 games in two years. That is not good and once again who did we beat that is good.

Yeah he does not throw a lot. When he actually has to throw to win... Failing is the way.

I really don't feel like deep diving again. If you want to know what I think about offensive and defensive production the past 2 years you can check out this post. If not, that's fine, but your take is pretty misguided imo.

[Kirby Jackson]

He didn't win did he?

Maybe your right about comparing them but we could compare the situation. It seems like TT has an upside. He does not. He is who he is. An athlete playing QB. Who did we beat that was actually considered a good team.

So he did good in 15 games in two years. That is not good and once again who did we beat that is good.

Yeah he does not throw a lot. When he actually has to throw to win... Failing is the way.

Ha ha ha, "so what if he won more than half of his starts."

 

I honestly don't know how people can make lazy comparisons (i.e. Losman) and expect to not get shouted down immediately. That type of ridiculousness is why some of us end up defending him. Why is it necessary to pretend he is awful? There is so much evidence disputing that. Why can't people agree to the baseline fact that he is a decent starter? That isn't even debatable. That doesn't mean he can't be upgraded from but he can easily be downgraded from. You start a conversation with "you can win as long as Tyrod is the QB" but he's won more than half of his starts? I don't understand? If you were to say "he's always going to win about half of his games" you'd have some evidence to support it. Think about the 180 of your claim "the Bills will win every game was long as Tyrod is the starter." Think about how ridiculous it sounds. That's how ridiculous "they can't win as long as he is the QB is."

 

If we just deal in reality the conversation would be so much more constructive. Pretending he's great or terrible doesn't advance discussion because he is neither. For some reason people feel that taking it to some extreme strengthens what they are saying. It doesn't do any good. There are a lot of posters that believe he can be the guy that make good points and there are a lot that don't believe that he can be the guy that make good points. You don't need to pretend that he's like EJ or like Brady.

[Noogie75]

Good point. I admit. He also opens the door for someone like Cardale to be right on his toes. Yes, everyone is hating on Cardale Wich has a way better upside. Cardale till this day has one about every game he started. He is proven when given the opportunity. And about TT's winning record is two losses away from horrible. Which y'all will see.

I really don't feel like deep diving again. If you want to know what I think about offensive and defensive production the past 2 years you can check out this post. If not, that's fine, but your take is pretty misguided imo.

Once again, against Tenn. 2 years ago. When else. And against a good team???

[BuffaloHokie13]

Good point. I admit. He also opens the door for someone like Cardale to be right on his toes. Yes, everyone is hating on Cardale Wich has a way better upside. Cardale till this day has one about every game he started. He is proven when given the opportunity. And about TT's winning record is two losses away from horrible. Which y'all will see.

 

Once again, against Tenn. 2 years ago. When else. And against a good team???

GWD against a playoff team in Houston, 4QC against Jax this year. Can only play the teams on your schedule, and we've won more than we've lost with him in. Also, if you looked at the data in that post you'd notice that we've scored 24+ 18 times in the last 2 years, and lost 9 of them which speaks volumes about the D/ST.

[Noogie75]

Cardale Jones... Cardale Jones... Cardale Jones...

[Noogie75]

Cool man I love when so so stats defend him. Jags are good??? How about the Raiders. He failed to get first downs. How about the Steelers. Yes, we gave up points but we also stopped them a few times. And created two key turn overs where we could have rallied back. Once again the clutch. The Baltimore game???

GWD against a playoff team in Houston, 4QC against Jax this year. Can only play the teams on your schedule, and we've won more than we've lost with him in. Also, if you looked at the data in that post you'd notice that we've scored 24+ 18 times in the last 2 years, and lost 9 of them which speaks volumes about the D/ST.

Cool man I love when so so stats defend him. Jags are good??? How about the Raiders. He failed to get first downs. How about the Steelers. Yes, we gave up points but we also stopped them a few times. And created two key turn overs where we could have rallied back. Once again the clutch. The Baltimore game???

Some off those points were off turn overs.

Cool man I love when so so stats defend him. Jags are good??? How about the Raiders. He failed to get first downs. How about the Steelers. Yes, we gave up points but we also stopped them a few times. And created two key turn overs where we could have rallied back. Once again the clutch. The Baltimore game???

GWD against a playoff team in Houston, 4QC against Jax this year. Can only play the teams on your schedule, and we've won more than we've lost with him in. Also, if you looked at the data in that post you'd notice that we've scored 24+ 18 times in the last 2 years, and lost 9 of them which speaks volumes about the D/ST.

If he can't put the team on his shoulders he ain't worth it. What did Cardale do at Ohio State as a third string. Put the team on his back with no excuses. Some times the other team scores on us they are pros too. As a QB you have to overcome and keep their offense of the field. Defense get tired if you score early then punt the rest of the way.

Can't wait till TT fails. I'mma be like, "I Told you". He can't hang.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Cool man I love when so so stats defend him. Jags are good??? How about the Raiders. He failed to get first downs. How about the Steelers. Yes, we gave up points but we also stopped them a few times. And created two key turn overs where we could have rallied back. Once again the clutch. The Baltimore game???

 

Some off those points were off turn overs.

Cool man I love when so so stats defend him. Jags are good??? How about the Raiders. He failed to get first downs. How about the Steelers. Yes, we gave up points but we also stopped them a few times. And created two key turn overs where we could have rallied back. Once again the clutch. The Baltimore game???

 

If he can't put the team on his shoulders he ain't worth it. What did Cardale do at Ohio State as a third string. Put the team on his back with no excuses. Some times the other team scores on us they are pros too. As a QB you have to overcome and keep their offense of the field. Defense get tired if you score early then punt the rest of the way.

Can't wait till TT fails. I'mma be like, "I Told you". He can't hang.

This statement, along with the formatting of your post tells me everything I need to know.

[Kirby Jackson]

Cardale Jones... Cardale Jones... Cardale Jones...

I like Cardale as much as pretty much anyone on this board. I was there when he beat Alabama going nuts. If you think that he's in the same universe as Tyrod at this point you're crazy. The reports from camp were that the gap from Tyrod to whomever is MASSIVE. I heard that from the beat reporters and then some off the record stuff from people over there. It's not just him either. The people holding out hope for Peterman aren't any closer.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

 

 

Why would I care whether the coaches specifically mention the middle third?

 

Coaches avoid talking about what specific problems are for millions of reasons, spin, wanting to keep being positive, not wanting to point out weaknesses ... a million reasons. Have the coaches ever admitted that the players didn't understand the defense last year, have they ever said those words? Nope. But one of the biggest problems on the defense appears to have been that ... well, they didn't fully understand the defense.

 

The idea that something isn't real unless the coaches specifically admit it to the world is flat-out stupid.

 

It's plenty that they said he had problems in the middle. When you look, though, you see it's the middle third. That's the point. As you know, I analyzed every single pass of the 2015 season and discovered that the problem was the deep ... and intermediate ... middle third of the field. You look at the dot chart and it stood out like a twenty-foot great white shark in a thirty-foot wide goldfish pond. That's where the problem has been. The deep and intermediate middle third.

 

Which is why, by the way, everyone knows the Bills have a problem going there and you can't find any trace of the problem using the stats that don't just cover the area that he doesn't throw to but also throws in a ton of passes in an area of strength. You're looking where the light is better, not where the problem is.

So the coaches talk about the middle of the field and we are required to believe that it's not just the middle, but it has to be the middle one third rather than the middle area that coaches can easily and clearly see in game film and on the field, all those passes between the numbers or between the hashmarks?

 

Apparently you think coaches care about geometry? And remember, you're the one saying the coaches made the statements about the middle of the field. There has never been anything said about the deep middle. There has never been anything said about the middle one third. You're just arbitrarily choosing something based on watching film of one player who you are clearly biased against, which is fine because we are all biased in someway as human beings. However, it would've been relatively easy to show that you have some level of credibility when it comes to this by looking comparatively at the other quarterbacks across the NFL.

 

Instead, you refuse to do this and continue to latch onto what you witnessed in a vacuum with your own biased eyes. And what's funny here is that I've never said after 2015 that Taylor didn't need to work on the intermediate middle portion of the field. This whole discussion continues because your absolute an incredible obsession with the deep portion of the field. And you've been proven wrong, time and time and time and time again. Apparently your latching onto two passing charts by two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, one of them being probably the greatest quarterback in NFL history, and that was only one chart from one year, and somehow you think that's definitive proof that all QBs spread the ball exactly evenly or even close to it to the deep portion of the field.

 

It's ridiculous.

 

Middle third is not a thing, Thurm. no one uses it other than you, which is why I suspect you've come back here trying to give the runaround.

 

Couldn't find a single quote from a coach or NFL GM or anyone regarding the middle third of the field, could you?

 

Now, as far as the 2016 season goes, Taylor has clearly improved as far as effectiveness when throwing across the middle of the field. Middle third. Middle fifth. Middle middle. Whatever the hell you want to call it.

 

 

 

All I can say is that I'm sorry but my numbers are gone. Hundreds of people saw them, as I published them on buffalobills.com. There were 2015 dot charts for Rivers, Brady and Tyrod. And I went back and watched every single pass in the 2015 season, and put up game by game compilations with every single pass that came anywhere close to being in the deep and intermediate middle third, and my comments.

 

And not a single person challenged me on my interpretation of a single play, on where the ball was being caught. Not a single person, including Transplant himself.

 

That site disappeared, without warning. The numbers are gone.

 

And again, the reason why those numbers are important are simple. Deep and intermediate throws matter. They're where you get chunk plays, they're a way to pressure the defense to cover the whole length of the field instead of being able to step up, fill up the box and make your run game and short pass game more difficult. And if you're throwing about a third of your deep passes to the left third, a third to the right third and a third to the middle, third, you're unpredictable and you make the defense's job tougher. Which is what Brady and Rivers were both doing. But if you throw roughly 40% of your deep passes to the left third, 40% to the right third and below 20% to the middle third, you're saying to the defense, "don't worry about that area, we rarely use it, go ahead and put more pressure on the areas we use more." Which is what Tyrod did.

 

And I didn't take the QB figures and divide by three. There were dot charts showing where every pass went. Brady and Rivers had a relatively even distribution. Tyrod had an extremely visible gap in the deep and intermediate middle third. I then went and checked pass by pass and confirmed that it really was a distribution problem for the Bills passing game and that that was where the problem was.

Again, with whatever two charts you use for Brady and rivers, there were at least a dozen more from other quarterbacks and even Brady and Rivers from different years that blatantly demonstrate that quarterbacks simply don't go to the deep middle that much. By percentage, deep middle throws are the smallest percentage that a QB makes.

 

For whatever amount of work you put into watching Taylor make every throw and charting all of those middle thirds to the deep and intermediate sections of the field, your conclusions are questionable at best, simply because you didn't put the rest of the necessary work and to draw those conclusions. You even said when you presented this initially that the problem with Taylor throwing to the deep middle portion of the field had more to do with frequency than anything else because frequency was what made him predictable. I don't think that anyone really would've disputed that Taylor needed to be better throwing to the deep middle portion of the field when he threw there. The big issue that you hold so strongly to is the fact that frequency was the issue, when it's clearly not.

[Noogie75]

We will see in training camp.

[Scott7975]

Every pass in the NFL 2013. Not so evenly spread beyond 20 yards

 

 

Edited July 18, 2017 by Scott7975

[transplantbillsfan]

 

 

 

Oh, so Gillman, a coach 70 years ago, divided the field up into five? Wow, well when you have to go that far out of relevancy to find an example, that says a lot about your argument right there. But what says more is that you don't know how Gillman's results turned out in terms of dividing up the field in threes. Gillman was doing exactly what I'm saying everyone should do, spread things out and challenge every area across the field. Which Tyrod doesn't do.

 

As for more recent examples, yet again, Brady and Rivers spread their deep and intermediate attempts evenly across the thirds. Tyrod doesn't.

 

As for your hashmarks thing there you're yet again looking under the streetlights because it's easier to look rather than where you lost the keys. Yet again, Tyrod throws very well and very often across the middle in the first ten yards. And between the hashes would also include behind the line of scrimmage, things like shovel passes or middle screens ... Nobody says Tyrod doesn't throw well in the middle in the short area, because he does. And you're including those stats here, yet again throwing in areas of strength and prolific throwing with his areas of weakness. Which does indeed cover up the problems in the deep and intermediate middle third, but doesn't do a single thing to prove they don't exist.

 

It's like a guy who wants to examine screen passes and can only find stats that combine screen passes and go routes together and so he thinks he's proven that that team's screen passes have a surprisingly high YPA.

 

The problem is isolated in one area. When you throw stats from other areas in with the problem areas, sure, you can make things look much better. But you're missing the problem because it's over in the dark area a few blocks over while you yet again look under the streetlight.

 

Yeah, it's a thing. That's why Roman talked about needing him to throw more and better to middle and the QB coach also talked about the same problem. But it's not a thing that you can find if you look in the wrong place, and that's what you're doing, looking at stat tables that don't isolate the problem but instead lump it in with areas of strength.

Wow You're living in your own world aren't you? Coach mentions middle of the field and clearly he's talking about the deep portion of the field but clearly he's not talking about the short portion of the field because that's where Taylor is good?

 

Are you making this up as you go along? That sure is what it seems like.

 

Gilman was considered the father of the passing offense. The West Coast offense and other offenses have come down from that. Where is there a reference to dividing the field in three? These are conclusions your drawing in your own fantasy land. You have it right there, essentially saying that the father of the modern passing game divided the field horizontally and five, and yet you are so arrogantly saying that obviously the offensive masterminds who followed figured out that they needed to narrow that down to three, rather than five. The problem is, you don't have any evidence. and if the field were divided in three, don't you think coaches would be wiser to use the landmarks like numbers and sidelines rather than subjective vision?

 

Thurm, You've been very entertaining with your snide street light remarks and the arrogance of your posts directed at me, but maybe for once you should just admit that an argument you're making is your own, and one you made up, and not something that clearly and obviously shared by everyone in the NFL.

[Kirby Jackson]

We will see in training camp.

No we won't. There isn't a competition being held. We may see someone emerge if Tyrod gets injured but there aren't guys competing to start now.

[transplantbillsfan]

Every pass in the NFL 2013. Not so evenly spread beyond 20 yards

 

 

#gogetThurmunderthestreetlight