Article on why 2017 passing game can make giant leap forward

[transplantbillsfan]

 

Your input is greatly appreciated, but the topic of this thread has nothing to do with former Bills QBs; it's about the near future/how the passing game will be this coming season.

 

Personally, I think that the pretty stats of the past will not be duplicated this year. A baseball team can have a player hit 55 HR in a season; if they were all solo shots with the team either up or down by 5+ runs, it becomes a meaningless - albeit very pretty - statistic.

 

I want to see more effective 2-minute drills. I want to see a pass play over the middle of the field executed on a crucial 3rd and long. I want to feel confident in the offense when they take the field down by 4 late in the game.

 

I think the new coaching staff has no choice but to call big boy plays in big boy situations. Those situations will define TT and determine his future, IMO.

 

Good thing we started seeing those things happen in Taylor's last couple games.

 

From the Cleveland game:

3-22-BUF 44(3:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep middle to 88-M.Goodwin to CLE 33 for 23 yards (58-C.Kirksey). Caught at CLE 36, slanting from left.

From the Miami game:

4-7-MIA 7(1:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 85-C.Clay for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

 

Let's hope it keeps up

There are a lot of BB message board people that can confirm what "team you joined." Are you saying that you DID NOT want EJ to win the job going into 2015? I supported Tyrod in that competition but mostly because I thought Cassel and EJ were terrible (I was right). I would have supported any unknown in that same situation.

 

Dude, no need to antagonize people. Your premise that all people who supported EJ or were "EJ homers" are now "Tyrod haters" is wrong.

 

I supported and wanted EJ to win that QB competition in 2015. I was also what some considered an "EJ homer," though I think those terms are ridiculous and thrown around too loosely.

 

But now, clearly, I'm a Tyrod supporter or a "Tyrod homer" as some would say.

 

 

So the premise that all people who supported EJ hate Tyrod is just plain wrong.

I'm in the camp of

 

Rex less = 2 additional wins - even if TT has the same exact stats as 2016.

 

 

Lets go Ginger Hammer (McD)

I know JeffsMagic is in the penalty box. did Crusher join him there?

 

Crusher and Mary Baulstein or Ryan or whatever postername he was under were in the penalty box with me. If they were in it as long as I was (2 weeks), they should be out by now.

 

Took me 10 years of posting on a Bills message board, but I finally got my first ban and I still feel a little dirty

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Good thing we started seeing those things happen in Taylor's last couple games.

 

From the Cleveland game:

3-22-BUF 44

(3:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep middle to 88-M.Goodwin to CLE 33 for 23 yards (58-C.Kirksey). Caught at CLE 36, slanting from left.

From the Miami game:

4-7-MIA 7

(1:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 85-C.Clay for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

 

Let's hope it keeps up

 

 

Dude, no need to antagonize people. Your premise that all people who supported EJ or were "EJ homers" are now "Tyrod haters" is wrong.

 

I supported and wanted EJ to win that QB competition in 2015. I was also what some considered an "EJ homer," though I think those terms are ridiculous and thrown around too loosely.

 

But now, clearly, I'm a Tyrod supporter or a "Tyrod homer" as some would say.

 

 

So the premise that all people who supported EJ hate Tyrod is just plain wrong.

 

 

Crusher and Mary Baulstein or Ryan or whatever postername he was under were in the penalty box with me. If they were in it as long as I was (2 weeks), they should be out by now.

 

Took me 10 years of posting on a Bills message board, but I finally got my first ban and I still feel a little dirty

You are on an island around here (or so I thought). The allegiances here were clear and it wasn't pretty. We lost posters "4-ever" over it. I wasn't antagonizing anyone, simply testing my theory. Apparently it hasn't held true since we opened the borders.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...so what is the prognosis of the TT/Dennison union GOING FORWARD?.......can it and will it work?.......azz backward peddling leads to nowhere as does the "shoulda coulda woulda" crap.....tell me about 2017 for starters and as to whether the "union" leads to 2018+.....get over the damn past......

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Didn't know that transplant

I thought maybe you were on vacation.

I get that sometimes it's hard to not argue.

 

I put 2009 on ignore to keep me from constantly arguing that I wasn't a TT hater and an EJ lover.

He's a dog with a bone gnawing and gnawing trying to get a reaction.

[transplantbillsfan]

Didn't know that transplant

I thought maybe you were on vacation.

 

A forced one, yes.

 

The mods basically said they were enforcing martial law here to try to get this place completely civil before TC and the season starts.

 

It's okay, though. I deserved it as much as they did. I may not have started it, but I certainly could have taken the high road and not retaliated, but I didn't.

 

I hope I've learned my lesson, at least to some degree

[NoSaint]

Cam played in the Super Bowl and was the MVP of the league. Yes, at this point he is way worse than Cam.

It's essentially the definition of the gap between a #1 pick and a late rounder with similar skill sets. Cam is a bigger, stronger version of a similarly mobile, big play qb that is inconsistent.

 

On their best days Cam is more durable and can make throws that no one else can - even if Tyrod can do just about anything you'd dream up on his own top end.

 

On their worst days, cam gets away with a little more.

 

And frankly, cam has shown to be able to string together more of the good days in a row.

 

In short-- It would take Tyrod and a BOATLOAD of picks to wrestle cam away.

[3rdand12]

 

Even if this pairing of HC/GM are not the right exact fit, I really like this model, and I hope that even if it goes awry the team will continue to embrace it.

I embrace this post

[Rochesterfan]

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/07/07/west-coast-offense-tyrod-taylor-buffalo-bills/

 

Looks into reasons the Bills passing game and Taylor could be significantly improved in 2017.

 

Talks a little about the changes in personnel, but the interesting stuff is when it dissects the passing concepts we're supposedly going to be executing this year: play-action passes, simple route concepts, the shallow cross, etc.

 

 

Closes with:

 

 

It is a nice article to show what the plan is - we will need to see if it fits TT or not. I think limiting his reads significantly will make some things easier, but I do not think TT excels at short to mid range passing to moving targets and I do not think TT excels at throwing quick timing routes on time and in stride.

 

I will hold my judgement on whether the passing attack makes any strides forward until he proves it or doesn't. There is really nothing in the article that makes me think things will get better and there are a lot of patterns - guys coming across the middle of the field - that we have seen the last 2 years and TT has for the most part refused to pull the trigger.

 

I expect a lot of running out of TT - probably even more than last year as they roll him out and actually a less productive passing attack. I think he will be exactly what we have seen a couple of above average games, a couple of average games, and a few stinkers and if the last 2 years are any indication - the average and bad will come early and when we sit on the brink or are eliminated - he will have his above average games and people will be - look he is getting better - like the Jets game 2 years ago and the Miami game at the end of last season. Those 2 games defined the off season expectations of a lot of fans that then got a dose of reality once the next season started.

[Figster]

It is a nice article to show what the plan is - we will need to see if it fits TT or not. I think limiting his reads significantly will make some things easier, but I do not think TT excels at short to mid range passing to moving targets and I do not think TT excels at throwing quick timing routes on time and in stride.

 

I will hold my judgement on whether the passing attack makes any strides forward until he proves it or doesn't. There is really nothing in the article that makes me think things will get better and there are a lot of patterns - guys coming across the middle of the field - that we have seen the last 2 years and TT has for the most part refused to pull the trigger.

 

I expect a lot of running out of TT - probably even more than last year as they roll him out and actually a less productive passing attack. I think he will be exactly what we have seen a couple of above average games, a couple of average games, and a few stinkers and if the last 2 years are any indication - the average and bad will come early and when we sit on the brink or are eliminated - he will have his above average games and people will be - look he is getting better - like the Jets game 2 years ago and the Miami game at the end of last season. Those 2 games defined the off season expectations of a lot of fans that then got a dose of reality once the next season started.

Good play calling by the OC is critical to the success of the West Coast O in my humble opinion.

 

I feel just the opposite about how well Taylor will operate under the new system because Lynn and T T began to click towards the end of last season operating out of much the same style O. The TE /Clay was getting used more effectively and the Offense as a unit was on the same page IMO. From a development standpoint If you compared Taylor in the passing game to most second season starting QB's the amount of reps/pass attempts he has been given to gel with his play makers is extremely low.

 

I agree, Tyrod Taylor has allot to prove, as does most 3rd year starters.

 

I'm a Billiever...

Edited July 13, 2017 by Figster

[Bangarang]

Good play calling by the OC is critical to the success of the West Coast O in my humble opinion.

Just like any other scheme

 

I feel just the opposite about how well Taylor will operate under the new system because Lynn and T T began to click towards the end of last season operating out of much the same style O. The TE /Clay was getting used more effectively and the Offense as a whole was starting to gel IMO.

Was it actually the same style offense though? Tyrod had his moments but his really good performances seemed to be sporadic more than anything.

 

Edited July 13, 2017 by Bangarang

[Rochesterfan]

Good play calling by the OC is critical to the success of the West Coast O in my humble opinion.

 

I feel just the opposite about how well Taylor will operate under the new system because Lynn and T T began to click towards the end of last season operating out of much the same style O. The TE /Clay was getting used more effectively and the Offense as a unit was on the same page IMO. From a development standpoint If you compared Taylor in the passing game to most second season starting QB's the amount of reps/pass attempts he has been given to gel with his play makers is extremely low.

 

I agree, Tyrod Taylor has allot to prove, as does most 3rd year starters.

 

I'm a Billiever...

Yeah and at the end of 2015 - Roman and TT were supposedly clicking as the NYJ game and that passing attack was going to be what we saw in 2017 until TT regressed and Roman was fired. Clay was getting passes deep and down the middle of the field, but it never translated to anything.

 

I think play calling is huge, but the player has to be able to handle that and until TT shows he can do it consistently- I am not ready to believe the passing attack will improve significantly.

 

I would be less surprised to see an improvement in the defense and the offense regressing toward middle of the pact - than seeing the offense actually improve. But that is just my opinion on the issue.

[transplantbillsfan]

It is a nice article to show what the plan is - we will need to see if it fits TT or not. I think limiting his reads significantly will make some things easier, but I do not think TT excels at short to mid range passing to moving targets and I do not think TT excels at throwing quick timing routes on time and in stride.

 

I will hold my judgement on whether the passing attack makes any strides forward until he proves it or doesn't. There is really nothing in the article that makes me think things will get better and there are a lot of patterns - guys coming across the middle of the field - that we have seen the last 2 years and TT has for the most part refused to pull the trigger.

 

I expect a lot of running out of TT - probably even more than last year as they roll him out and actually a less productive passing attack. I think he will be exactly what we have seen a couple of above average games, a couple of average games, and a few stinkers and if the last 2 years are any indication - the average and bad will come early and when we sit on the brink or are eliminated - he will have his above average games and people will be - look he is getting better - like the Jets game 2 years ago and the Miami game at the end of last season. Those 2 games defined the off season expectations of a lot of fans that then got a dose of reality once the next season started.

I understand, but actually think those timing routes are the very routes Roman should have focused on with Taylor. Lynn incorporated them more and he was pretty good when he ran those plays.

 

Think about it: read the coverages before the ball is snapped, have a plan when it's snapped, 3-step drop and deliver. Less time to think. Maybe less responsibility post snap in terms of how many reads at that point, but isn't that a large part of the WCO? Know where the ball's going when the ball is snapped. Not much time for the second guessing or doubting that seems to get him into the most trouble.

 

2 examples just off the top of my head are both of his TD passes in the last Miami game last year. Ball out pretty quick on both plays. Little time to think about the congestion with defenders around. 2 TDs, including one that should have been the game winner with less than 90 seconds remaining.

 

 

Lots of other throws like that that Lynn sprinkled into the offense and Taylor delivered starting in week 3. Not as many as there probably will be in a WCO, but certainly more than in Roman's offense.

 

Was it actually the same style offense though? Tyrod had his moments but his really good performances seemed to be sporadic more than anything.

 

Lynn's offense was definitely more of the WCO than Roman's in terms of play calling.

[Crusher]

 

Good thing we started seeing those things happen in Taylor's last couple games.

 

From the Cleveland game:

3-22-BUF 44

(3:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep middle to 88-M.Goodwin to CLE 33 for 23 yards (58-C.Kirksey). Caught at CLE 36, slanting from left.

From the Miami game:

4-7-MIA 7

(1:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 85-C.Clay for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

 

Let's hope it keeps up

 

 

Dude, no need to antagonize people. Your premise that all people who supported EJ or were "EJ homers" are now "Tyrod haters" is wrong.

 

I supported and wanted EJ to win that QB competition in 2015. I was also what some considered an "EJ homer," though I think those terms are ridiculous and thrown around too loosely.

 

But now, clearly, I'm a Tyrod supporter or a "Tyrod homer" as some would say.

 

 

So the premise that all people who supported EJ hate Tyrod is just plain wrong.

 

 

Crusher and Mary Baulstein or Ryan or whatever postername he was under were in the penalty box with me. If they were in it as long as I was (2 weeks), they should be out by now.

 

Took me 10 years of posting on a Bills message board, but I finally got my first ban and I still feel a little dirty

Just got out of the box now.

 

At least you received an explanation...I requested to know why, but was given no response.

[Rochesterfan]

I understand, but actually think those timing routes are the very routes Roman should have focused on with Taylor. Lynn incorporated them more and he was pretty good when he ran those plays.

Think about it: read the coverages before the ball is snapped, have a plan when it's snapped, 3-step drop and deliver. Less time to think. Maybe less responsibility post snap in terms of how many reads at that point, but isn't that a large part of the WCO? Know where the ball's going when the ball is snapped. Not much time for the second guessing or doubting that seems to get him into the most trouble.

2 examples just off the top of my head are both of his TD passes in the last Miami game last year. Ball out pretty quick on both plays. Little time to think about the congestion with defenders around. 2 TDs, including one that should have been the game winner with less than 90 seconds remaining.

Lots of other throws like that that Lynn sprinkled into the offense and Taylor delivered starting in week 3. Not as many as there probably will be in a WCO, but certainly more than in Roman's offense.

 

Lynn's offense was definitely more of the WCO than Roman's in terms of play calling.

 

I know transplant- you are trying hard - but even you stated by the end of the Pittsburgh game you were essentially ready to move on - so everything you say may be true, but with 3 games left in the season you had readily admitted that TT was not good enough. Then he played 2 terrible defenses in Cleveland and Miami and look slightly above average and now you talk that he was fine all year.

 

TT was not the reason the Bills were average, but he also was not the solution. With a change to the running game - I expect it is going to come back toward the field and I expect we have seen from TT what he can do - I think he will be fine with combo routes to the outside - much like the comeback routes - throws he can see the guy is open. I anticipate he will struggle with throws to moving targets moving between the hash marks because that is what he has struggled with - both vision and anticipation throws. I anticipate that the Bills will be rolling TT out a lot and where we see other QBs throw to 1 of 2 receivers - I think TT will run more than throwing in those situations because he trusts his athletic ability more than his throwing ability.

 

I think the article provide some nice best case scenarios, but it was interesting how many times they attached routes the Bills used over the last 2 years to illustrate the routes - that means some of these concepts were already used and he struggled at times and in this offense they will limit what TT was best at - the deep go route along the sideline - that is what opened up everything and that will be cut down in the new scheme and I think the short timing routes will bring defenses closer to the LOS - again hurting our running game.

 

We will see how it goes.

[Thurman#1]

 

Thurm, we've been through this over at BBMB and you're going to completely ignore this because that's what you do, but in order to save some posters from some of your misinformation, I'm going to respond to this with a bunch of stuff I've brought up to you but you ignore. SInce that was on another message board, we wanna make sure we understand why your premise is incomplete and/or inconclusive, because you must analyze other QBs comparatively rather than just taking Taylor's numbers and arbitrarily saying they aren't good enough based on your own personal opinion rather than what other NFL QBs are doing.

 

First, stop with this deep middle obsession of yours. It doesn't matter because NFL QBs go there such a small percentage of the time that that area of the field (20+ yards to the middle) might be the most ignored by NFL QBs.

 

According to just a few of the PFF passing charts I could find, in terms of the deep middle of the field

 

Cam Newton went there 5.9% of the time

Tom Brady went there 3.8% of the time

Russell Wilson went there 2.5% of the time

Tyrod Taylor went there 4.4% of the time

 

QBs rarely throw to the deep middle. Period.

 

ESPN's stats are literally stats to the middle of the field because they're between the hashmarks. And in 2016, Taylor's numbers compared to a bunch of other QBs looked like this:

 

Rodgers: 9.3% of total attempts, 57.9 % completions, 7.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 67.1 Passer Rating

Newton: 10.6% of total attempts, 59.3 % completions, 8.6 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 98 Passer Rating

Mariota: 10.6% of total attempts, 66.7 % completions, 8.1 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 103.6 Passer Rating

Carr: 12% of total attempts, 67.2 % completions, 8.6 YPA, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 100.3 Passer Rating

Taylor: 7.3% of total attempts, 78.1 % completions, 8.7 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 103 Passer Rating

Tannehill: 10.3% of total attempts, 70 % completions, 6.3 YPA, 0 TDs, 1 INTs, 76.3 Passer Rating

Wilson: 8.4% of total attempts, 65.2 % completions, 7.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 83.9 Passer Rating

Cousins: 11.7% of total attempts, 74.6 % completions, 10.4 YPA, 4 TDs, 4 INTs, 102.8 Passer Rating

Stafford: 10.8% of total attempts, 70.3 % completions, 7.9 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 93.8 Passer Rating

Luck: 15.8% of total attempts, 61.6 % completions, 7.4 YPA, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 107.5 Passer Rating

Winston: 9.7% of total attempts, 72.7 % completions, 8.2 YPA, 2 TDs, 1 INTs, 101.5 Passer Rating

Ryan: 12.5% of total attempts, 71.6 % completions, 10.3 YPA, 7 TDs, 1 INTs, 133.3 Passer Rating

 

Yeah, those take all passes to the middle, but notice how high his YPA is compared to everyone else... so those aren't just little dumpoffs with a whole bunch of YAC, especially since we know Taylor's WR corps got some of the lowest YAC in the NFL.

 

So that's just over 6 yards worth of passes horizontally across the field in the middle. A football field is 160 feet or 53.333 yards. Your "middle third" obsession is 17.7 yards. We have data on 6.5 of those yards, so you're arguing that all those leftover numbers for Taylor that fall outside the hashmarks but between the numbers fall in the 3.7 yards immediately inside the numbers but not any closer to the hashmarks. You're saying he ignores and doesn't do well about 7 yards immediately outside the hashmarks on both sides, but does just fine inside those hashmarks, which is the most precise middle of the field you can get pretty much, and the rest of his good throws come in the just under 4 yards right before the numbers on both sides.

 

You're arguing that his good passing inside the hashmarks, or exactly to the middle of the field, and just inside the numbers for just under 4 yards (about 3.7 yards) end up skewing his numbers that he has for PFF for the "middle of the field" and that he's absolutely horrible and/or ignores those 7 yards just outside the hashmarks and before those 3.7 yards inside the numbers. 2 questions:

 

Did you chart other QBs to find out how they're doing in those same areas?

I hope so, because otherwise the numbers don't mean much.

 

 

AND

 

Let's say you're right (and we can't really say that until we have some numbers of other QBs for comparison's sake) and Taylor's great inside the hashmarks and just inside the numbers on both sides for about 4 yards but struggles more than other QBs for about the 7 yards inside that.

 

So what?

 

 

I do tend to ignore the stuff you bring up on this particular issue. I read it every time but you consistently don't directly address my specific objections. So yeah, I often don't bother to answer. Because you tend to be repeating the same things you've already said, and ignoring the problem rather than dealing with it. As you did here. I pointed out that the ESPN stats were combining areas of the field where Tyrod throws well with areas where he throws little, and thus masking his weaknesses. In response you compare other QBs stats to Tyrod's artificially elevated stats whose weaknesses at diagnosing his problems I just pointed out. So yeah, I do tend to ignore that, and other cases where points are missed. But you say here that you want to "save posters here some of your misinformation," so I'll do the same for yours.

 

I explained that those stats miss the point, examine the wrong areas of the field and bury the information about the area he has trouble with in data from areas he's good in. And you use the exact same stats and compare them to other QBs ... thereby missing the exact same point yet again..

 

You argue that since guys don't go deep middle that often it's not important, again missing the point which is that the reason they didn't go deep middle all that often is that they didn't go deep all that often. QBs don't throw half of their balls deep. Nonetheless those deep balls are some of the most important they throw as they have much higher chances for being chunk plays and they force the defense to respect the deep ball which then opens up the shorter areas for more efficiency. Why are those 5% - or whatever - of passes important? That's why. They're an extremely important part of the plans for the passing game and if they're not functioning well in one area or being predictable as to where they will go, it's important.

 

You ask if I charted all those other QBs in that area. Did you? If you didn't, your argument has the same weakness you're accusing mine of having.

 

But in fact as you're aware from our arguments on the old site, I don't need to do that, because a guy did it for us, He produced the dot charts for Brady and Rivers. And so I did at that time indeed go through those dot charts and count out the results and to the surprise of nobody they showed that both Rivers and Brady, unlike Tyrod, distributed their deep and intermediate balls pretty close to evenly across the field. They threw close to a third of their passes to the left third, close to a third of their passes to the center third and close to a third of their passes to the right third. Which made them far more difficult to predict and therefore depend than Tyrod who threw about 40% of his passes to the left third, 40% of his passes to the right third and slightly below 20% of his passes to the middle third. Making him predictable and handicapping the receivers.

 

I so wish those posts and 2015 dot charts were still available. They're not, but a ton of people saw the argument and none at the time disputed those charts. Those two distributed balls evenly across the field and weren't less successful in any area either. Whereas Tyrod distributed the ball unevenly and did poorly when he did throw it there. This was in 2015, and I can't claim to know what happened in 2016. But in 2015 the results were an estremely telling contrast.

 

And again, in 2015 nearly half of Tyrod's INTs came from that extremely small number of passes he threw to the deep and intermediate middle third. So in 2015 he threw little and poorly to the deep and intermediate middle third.

 

Which makes the defense's job easier and may well have been part of the adjustments that defenses made this last year that reduced his efficiency.

 

You do touch on the key point in your post here, which is this ... "So what?" Jeez. So a lot.

 

Guys who struggle to use a large area of the field - in this case the deep and intermediate middle third - make things a ton easier on the defense. The safeties can take a step or two away from the area that he doesn't use towards the area he uses well. The CBs can give less respect to the WRs moves towards the center of the field which reduces WR efficiency in the areas Tyrod is better at.

 

Defenses with a lot of time to look at tape tend to find ways to take away strengths and attack weaknesses. Not exploiting a huge area of the field allows defenses not to defend those areas. It makes the job of the offensive passing game harder. That's so what.

Edited July 14, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Bangarang]

Lynn's offense was definitely more of the WCO than Roman's in terms of play calling.

How so?

[transplantbillsfan]

Just got out of the box now.

 

At least you received an explanation...I requested to know why, but was given no response.

We just all need to be more civil bud. Me included.

[transplantbillsfan]

I know transplant- you are trying hard - but even you stated by the end of the Pittsburgh game you were essentially ready to move on - so everything you say may be true, but with 3 games left in the season you had readily admitted that TT was not good enough. Then he played 2 terrible defenses in Cleveland and Miami and look slightly above average and now you talk that he was fine all year.

 

TT was not the reason the Bills were average, but he also was not the solution. With a change to the running game - I expect it is going to come back toward the field and I expect we have seen from TT what he can do - I think he will be fine with combo routes to the outside - much like the comeback routes - throws he can see the guy is open. I anticipate he will struggle with throws to moving targets moving between the hash marks because that is what he has struggled with - both vision and anticipation throws. I anticipate that the Bills will be rolling TT out a lot and where we see other QBs throw to 1 of 2 receivers - I think TT will run more than throwing in those situations because he trusts his athletic ability more than his throwing ability.

 

I think the article provide some nice best case scenarios, but it was interesting how many times they attached routes the Bills used over the last 2 years to illustrate the routes - that means some of these concepts were already used and he struggled at times and in this offense they will limit what TT was best at - the deep go route along the sideline - that is what opened up everything and that will be cut down in the new scheme and I think the short timing routes will bring defenses closer to the LOS - again hurting our running game.

 

We will see how it goes.

I'm not going to backtrack anything because that's how I felt after the Pittsburgh game, but I chose my words very particularly (and I remember this) as "Taylor's not good enough for us." I said (and felt) that because I just wanted a flat out Elite QB who could elevate everyone around him and Taylor wasn't that guy and I still don't think he ever will be. Again, I still don't think that. But after that emotional moment and the last couple games of the season and thinking about the crap this team dealt with last year, I think Taylor deserves another year of true evaluation because of all the stuff (particularly coaches and injuries) that visibly affected both his success and the team's success last year.

 

I'm super happy we have those 2 firsts next year... because if Taylor falls on his face, we have some bank to get our guy, finally.

 

You're right. We're going to see. But just taking a step back after an emotional season, last season, to some degree, was a bit of a mulligan for Taylor.

How so?

Can you refer to the article and my previous posts in the thread on this subject, please? Don't feel like typing it out again.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

 

I do tend to ignore the stuff you bring up on this particular issue. I read it every time but you consistently don't directly address my specific objections. So yeah, I often don't bother to answer. Because you tend to be repeating the same things you've already said, and ignoring the problem rather than dealing with it. As you did here. I pointed out that the ESPN stats were combining areas of the field where Tyrod throws well with areas where he throws little, and thus masking his weaknesses. In response you compare other QBs stats to Tyrod's artificially elevated stats whose weaknesses at diagnosing his problems I just pointed out. So yeah, I do tend to ignore that, and other cases where points are missed. But you say here that you want to "save posters here some of your misinformation," so I'll do the same for yours.

 

I explained that those stats miss the point, examine the wrong areas of the field and bury the information about the area he has trouble with in data from areas he's good in. And you use the exact same stats and compare them to other QBs ... thereby missing the exact same point yet again..

 

You argue that since guys don't go deep middle that often it's not important, again missing the point which is that the reason they didn't go deep middle all that often is that they didn't go deep all that often. QBs don't throw half of their balls deep. Nonetheless those deep balls are some of the most important they throw as they have much higher chances for being chunk plays and they force the defense to respect the deep ball which then opens up the shorter areas for more efficiency. Why are those 5% - or whatever - of passes important? That's why. They're an extremely important part of the plans for the passing game and if they're not functioning well in one area or being predictable as to where they will go, it's important.

 

You ask if I charted all those other QBs in that area. Did you? If you didn't, your argument has the same weakness you're accusing mine of having.

 

But in fact as you're aware from our arguments on the old site, I don't need to do that, because a guy did it for us, He produced the dot charts for Brady and Rivers. And so I did at that time indeed go through those dot charts and count out the results and to the surprise of nobody they showed that both Rivers and Brady, unlike Tyrod, distributed their deep and intermediate balls pretty close to evenly across the field. They threw close to a third of their passes to the left third, close to a third of their passes to the center third and close to a third of their passes to the right third. Which made them far more difficult to predict and therefore depend than Tyrod who threw about 40% of his passes to the left third, 40% of his passes to the right third and slightly below 20% of his passes to the middle third. Making him predictable and handicapping the receivers.

 

I so wish those posts and 2015 dot charts were still available. They're not, but a ton of people saw the argument and none at the time disputed those charts. Those two distributed balls evenly across the field and weren't less successful in any area either. Whereas Tyrod distributed the ball unevenly and did poorly when he did throw it there. This was in 2015, and I can't claim to know what happened in 2016. But in 2015 the results were an estremely telling contrast.

 

And again, in 2015 nearly half of Tyrod's INTs came from that extremely small number of passes he threw to the deep and intermediate middle third. So in 2015 he threw little and poorly to the deep and intermediate middle third.

 

Which makes the defense's job easier and may well have been part of the adjustments that defenses made this last year that reduced his efficiency.

 

You do touch on the key point in your post here, which is this ... "So what?" Jeez. So a lot.

 

Guys who struggle to use a large area of the field - in this case the deep and intermediate middle third - make things a ton easier on the defense. The safeties can take a step or two away from the area that he doesn't use towards the area he uses well. The CBs can give less respect to the WRs moves towards the center of the field which reduces WR efficiency in the areas Tyrod is better at.

 

Defenses with a lot of time to look at tape tend to find ways to take away strengths and attack weaknesses. Not exploiting a huge area of the field allows defenses not to defend those areas. It makes the job of the offensive passing game harder. That's so what.

Round and round and round we go Thurm. The argument you're making to the deep portion of the field is getting ridiculous. Google PFF's passing charts for different QBs and you're trying to bicker about a very tiny handful of passes... because that's all they are.

 

You're right, QBs rarely go deep. And safeties are typically in the middle of the field. That's why, by percentage, the deep middle is the most avoided zone by the vast majority of NFL QBs.

 

Oh sure, there might be random years where a Tom Brady or a Phillip Rivers throws more than normal there by percentage. But that equates to no more than a handful of passes.

 

Google the passing charts I mentioned from PFF, you're going to see Taylor going to the deep middle by percentage more than Brady or Wilson (on at least the ones I found). But even that doesn't matter because it's literally a few passes we're talking about.

 

And if you still so desperately want to argue the ineptitude of Taylor to the deep middle in comparison to his peers, well, be my guest.

 

 

As for those ESPN splits I included, the Bills were dead last in the NFL in YAC and 30th in the NFL in terms of YAC/reception. Pretty simple logic that the fact that Taylor has the 3rd highest YPA on that list is a damn good sign that he's throwing the ball quite a bit to the deep and intermediate middle in comparison to his peers and pretty darn effectively, as well:flirt:

Edited July 14, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Figster]

We just all need to be more civil bud. Me included.

Amen to that my friend