Article on why 2017 passing game can make giant leap forward

[xRUSHx]

The only way this offense makes a giant leap forward is when we get a franchise worthy QB until then I expect no different then the last 17 seasons, not good enough.

 

 

OK : 64-percent of his passes for 3,362 yards, throwing 26 touchdowns and six interceptions isn't "elite" - although the 8+ yards per attempt left out of those stats is also a nice touch.

 

But that illustrates the problem with the Great Tyrod Message Board War. Very few people who are "supporters" have claimed Taylor is elite. Instead they've claimed Taylor's strengths are undervalued while his weaknesses are overvalued. They claim he's still got a lot of upside. They point out he's only a second year starter and many quarterbacks (Kirk Cousins comes to mind) has looked much worse when first put under center.

 

Meanwhile, many of the anti-Taylors say :

 

• He can't process game speed
• He's a running back pretending to be a quarterback
• He has no accuracy
• He can't see the field
• He doesn't understand defenses
• He easy to scheme against
• He never throws in the middle
• He never stays in the pocket
• Etc.

Now, the "pro" viewpoint may be glass-half-full rosy, but it's not the total caricature of the "anti" viewpoint. Because the numbers quoted of Taylor with a full cast may not be "elite", but they're well above what any quarterback would produce if saddled with even half irredeemable flaws TT's critics claim for him.

You forgot mr comsecutive 3 and out when the game matters most.

Make him be a QB something he has problems with.

[teef]

The only way this offense makes a giant leap forward is when we get a franchise worthy QB until then I expect no different then the last 17 seasons, not good enough.

You forgot mr comsecutive 3 and out when the game matters most.

Make him be a QB something he has problems with.

i see someone creeping in a tyrod thread!!!!

[Kirby Jackson]

 

If they can score the points when they matter most, this will be great.

 

We already know that TT and this offense can wrack up pretty stats.

 

Now we need, once and for all, to see if they can get into the end zone when we need it.

Totally agree

 

The things that I'm most concerned with are 3rd down conversions, red zone efficiency, and turnovers. The way that I look at it is if you can keep the chains moving, score when you get close and take care of the football you should be pretty good. The Bills were pretty good in the red zone (7th) and great with the turnovers (almost broke the NFL record). They were closer to the middle of the pack on 3rd down (13th). There is some room for improvement there. This is especially true because the Bills ran the ball well so often had 3rd and short. Their percentage was better than many but that's because they were in a better 3rd down situation.

 

I don't really care about much else. Yards per carry is big to me on offense as well. The Bills have excelled there. They need to run effectively. If they are up near 5 yards a carry again that will help all of these stats.

[grb]

Totally agree

 

The things that I'm most concerned with are 3rd down conversions, red zone efficiency, and turnovers. The way that I look at it is if you can keep the chains moving, score when you get close and take care of the football you should be pretty good. The Bills were pretty good in the red zone (7th) and great with the turnovers (almost broke the NFL record). They were closer to the middle of the pack on 3rd down (13th). There is some room for improvement there. This is especially true because the Bills ran the ball well so often had 3rd and short. Their percentage was better than many but that's because they were in a better 3rd down situation.

 

I don't really care about much else. Yards per carry is big to me on offense as well. The Bills have excelled there. They need to run effectively. If they are up near 5 yards a carry again that will help all of these stats.

 

 

It's interesting that the things you picked - 3rd down conversions, red zone efficiency, and turnovers - are all areas where Taylor and the offense improved from 2015 to 2016. They did much better in the red zone and showed a significant improvement on 3rd downs - though the 3rd down stat seems to be one where even small changes moves a team up or down the standings a greater degree than you'd think.

[BuffaloHokie13]

We don't know how many passing attempts he had in those 15 games (I don't feel like doing that math) but based on his career yards per attempt we are looking at about 30 attempts a game. That would still be 32nd in attempts across the NFL. Despite the fewest attempts they would be 24th in yards. The TD to INT ratio would be 4.67 to 1 (tied top 5 and exactly the same as Derek Carr in 2016). They are only behind Brady, Dak, Rodgers and Ryan. I think that an almost 5:1 TD to INT ratio would classify as "borderline" elite. Maybe that is a stretch but it would still be very strong.

 

If the Bills threw more the gross numbers would rise quite a bit. They threw the ball a lot less than any team in the league. If you took the league average in pass attempts (36.1 attempts per game) and applied Tyrod's career numbers to it, it would look like this: 62.3% completion, 4,274 yards, 25 TDS, 9 INTS. Again, that is just what he does through the air. That would certainly look like a good passing game. 4,274 yards would be 7th, 62.3% 19th (ironically where he already is), 25 TDs (13th), 9 INTS (near the best in the league).

 

I guess I am just saying that we need to look at the attempts to figure things out. They are going to go up this year. The Bills will throw for more yards and people will mistake that for an improved passing game. That isn't necessarily the case. On a per attempt basis they are near the middle of the league, with a top of the league TD to INT ratio. It certainly can be better. Carson Palmer threw the ball 161 times more than Tyrod last year in the same number of games. Shouldn't he have more yards, TDs and INTs? Of course, that is simple logic. When looking at the Bills passing or running game (or any team) we need to look what they do on an attempt basis.

I did the math. 406 Attempts. That means 8.28 YPA, 6.4% TD%, and 1.48% INT%.

 

In 2015 those would rank:

TD% - 5th - Behind Newton, Wilson, Palmer, and Dalton

INT% - 4th - Behind Brady, Rodgers, and ASmith

YPA - 5th - Behind Palmer, Dalton, Big Ben, and Wilson

 

In 2016 those would rank:

TD% - 4th - Behind Ryan, Rodgers, and Brady

INT% - 7th - Behind Brady, Bradford, Carr, Rodgers, Kaepernick, and Ryan

YPA - 2nd - Behind Ryan

 

In Combined Stats over the 2 year period those would rank:

TD% - 2nd - Behind Rodgers

INT% - 3rd - Behind Brady & Bradford

YPA - 1st - 2nd Ryan w/ 8.14, 3rd Luck w/ 8.07. Nobody else over 8.

[Elite Poster]

I need to see it to believe

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

It's interesting that the things you picked - 3rd down conversions, red zone efficiency, and turnovers - are all areas where Taylor and the offense improved from 2015 to 2016. They did much better in the red zone and showed a significant improvement on 3rd downs - though the 3rd down stat seems to be one where even small changes moves a team up or down the standings a greater degree than you'd think.

They should be good on 3rd down with that running game. I've never looked but I'd bet that the Bills have less yards to go on 3rd down than almost every team in the league.

I did the math. 406 Attempts. That means 8.28 YPA, 6.4% TD%, and 1.48% INT%.

 

In 2015 those would rank:

TD% - 5th - Behind Newton, Wilson, Palmer, and Dalton

INT% - 4th - Behind Brady, Rodgers, and ASmith

YPA - 5th - Behind Palmer, Dalton, Big Ben, and Wilson

 

In 2016 those would rank:

TD% - 4th - Behind Ryan, Rodgers, and Brady

INT% - 7th - Behind Brady, Bradford, Carr, Rodgers, Kaepernick, and Ryan

YPA - 2nd - Behind Ryan

 

In Combined Stats over the 2 year period those would rank:

TD% - 2nd - Behind Rodgers

INT% - 3rd - Behind Brady & Bradford

YPA - 1st - 2nd Ryan w/ 8.14, 3rd Luck w/ 8.07. Nobody else over 8.

I don't retract my borderline elite comment then. If anything I'd pull out the word borderline. Edited July 10, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[BuffaloHokie13]

They should be good on 3rd down with that running game. I've never looked but I'd bet that the Bills have less yards to go on 3rd down than almost every team in the league.

I don't retract my borderline elite comment then. If anything I'd pull out the word borderline.

The only thing is that to truly level the field you'd need to pull out games where everyone's starters weren't playing. But the stats are solid when we're healthy, no doubt. This also excludes 465 yards rushing, 3 TDs, and 1 fumble.

[Kirby Jackson]

The only thing is that to truly level the field you'd need to pull out games where everyone's starters weren't playing. But the stats are solid when we're healthy, no doubt. This also excludes 465 yards rushing, 3 TDs, and 1 fumble.

The YPA in those games is almost a full yard higher than his career average. That's a lot.

[BuffaloHokie13]

The YPA in those games is almost a full yard higher than his career average. That's a lot.

In '15 he had a 7.99, and 9 of the 15 games were from 2015. Also, in case anyone thinks the 15 YPA he put up in the Dolphins game is skewing the average, his median YPA in those games is 8.44, so higher than the average.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

The way I look at it - there are a ton of areas for improvement. We need to be able to run a no-huddle offense. We need to be able to pass on 1st downs and consistently gain yards. We need to scheme to get people other than Watkins open. We need to have a bigger route tree than like... outs/hitches/gos. We need to be able to utilize play action. We need to be able to run more plays from under center. We need to run screens to help with pass rushers.

[Bangarang]

The only thing is that to truly level the field you'd need to pull out games where everyone's starters weren't playing. But the stats are solid when we're healthy, no doubt. This also excludes 465 yards rushing, 3 TDs, and 1 fumble.

The stats are very good and I don't think many would have issues with Tyrod being our long term starter if he was consistently putting up those numbers.

[BuffaloHokie13]

The stats are very good and I don't think many would have issues with Tyrod being our long term starter if he was consistently putting up those numbers.

Agreed. Consistency is certainly key at this point. The ups and downs are what drives most people mad. I would be interested in seeing how losing receivers has effected all QBs, but I just don't have time to dig into it like I'd want to. Off the top of my head Rodgers' stats took a moderate hit without Nelson and Dalton tumbled pretty hard without Green & the combo of Sanu/Jones.

[HappyDays]

I did the math. 406 Attempts. That means 8.28 YPA, 6.4% TD%, and 1.48% INT%.

 

In 2015 those would rank:

TD% - 5th - Behind Newton, Wilson, Palmer, and Dalton

INT% - 4th - Behind Brady, Rodgers, and ASmith

YPA - 5th - Behind Palmer, Dalton, Big Ben, and Wilson

 

In 2016 those would rank:

TD% - 4th - Behind Ryan, Rodgers, and Brady

INT% - 7th - Behind Brady, Bradford, Carr, Rodgers, Kaepernick, and Ryan

YPA - 2nd - Behind Ryan

 

In Combined Stats over the 2 year period those would rank:

TD% - 2nd - Behind Rodgers

INT% - 3rd - Behind Brady & Bradford

YPA - 1st - 2nd Ryan w/ 8.14, 3rd Luck w/ 8.07. Nobody else over 8.

Really appreciate these sorts of posts BuffaloHokie, and you've had a few of them lately.

 

To put it in comparison imagine if this year Jameis Winston had to play several games without Mike Evans AND Desean Jackson AND OJ Howard on the field - that's what Tyrod was dealing with in multiple games. I mean I know you're going to lose some players for a few games but that's pretty absurd.

[Gugny]

The stats are very good and I don't think many would have issues with Tyrod being our long term starter if he was consistently putting up those numbers.

 

Consistently and when necessary.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/07/07/west-coast-offense-tyrod-taylor-buffalo-bills/

 

Looks into reasons the Bills passing game and Taylor could be significantly improved in 2017.

 

Talks a little about the changes in personnel, but the interesting stuff is when it dissects the passing concepts we're supposedly going to be executing this year: play-action passes, simple route concepts, the shallow cross, etc.

 

 

Closes with:

 

 

I think TT has done good things. I'm not sold WCO is a perfect fit for him:

 

TT Fact: Taylor's dot plot and analysis of his throwing success show he's better down the sidelines and outside the hashes

 

WCO fact: uses lots of horizontal routes and slant/cross concepts with fewer vertical routes

 

So- how can a QB who has been cited as struggling to throw over the middle have greater success in an offense that emphasizes throwing over the middle? Also if one of his strengths the outside deep ball to vertical routes is limited, how's that help?

 

----

TT fact: in depth analysis last year showed difficulty getting through entire progressions before taking off running

 

WCO fact: emphasis on play action will result in his back to the d and even less time to set up and get through progressions

 

So the progressions are rimplified based on the nature of a boot leg but also, less time to do something that, it was concluded by some, was already a weakness. Also the claim that horizontal routes force zone coverage may only be true with supremely talented WRs and highly accurate short to medium anticipation throwers. (Montana and rice come to mind)

 

 

Given Tyrod has that sweet vertical ball and appeared to struggle with the middle of the field and we really haven't seen evidence of much anticipation throwing, im reluctant to adopt a view that WCO is Taylor-made at all...

[John from Riverside]

I think TT has done good things. I'm not sold WCO is a perfect fit for him:

 

TT Fact: Taylor's dot plot and analysis of his throwing success show he's better down the sidelines and outside the hashes

 

WCO fact: uses lots of horizontal routes and slant/cross concepts with fewer vertical routes

 

So- how can a QB who has been cited as struggling to throw over the middle have greater success in an offense that emphasizes throwing over the middle? Also if one of his strengths the outside deep ball to vertical routes is limited, how's that help?

 

----

TT fact: in depth analysis last year showed difficulty getting through entire progressions before taking off running

 

WCO fact: emphasis on play action will result in his back to the d and even less time to set up and get through progressions

 

So the progressions are rimplified based on the nature of a boot leg but also, less time to do something that, it was concluded by some, was already a weakness. Also the claim that horizontal routes force zone coverage may only be true with supremely talented WRs and highly accurate short to medium anticipation throwers. (Montana and rice come to mind)

 

 

Given Tyrod has that sweet vertical ball and appeared to struggle with the middle of the field and we really haven't seen evidence of much anticipation throwing, im reluctant to adopt a view that WCO is Taylor-made at all...

We need to see it.....I think its a totally fair statement

[grb]

So- how can a QB who has been cited as struggling to throw over the middle have greater success in an offense that emphasizes throwing over the middle? Also if one of his strengths the outside deep ball to vertical routes is limited, how's that help?

 

 

 

 

 

There have been many detailed studies on Taylor and middle throws, both in this forum and elsewhere. The findings? All quarterbacks throw less across the middle, and Taylor less so than his peers. But per number of attempts, this difference only averages 2-3 attempts per game. And when he does throw over the middle he has decent success doing so. A quote from Chris Trapasso, the quote link, and another link to the pass distribution chart where Trapasso got his data :

 

"While throwing to the middle of the field in 2016, Tyrod completed 103 of 137 (75.1% completion rate) of his passes for 1,027 yards (7.49 yards per attempt) with four TDs and zero INTs. All that equates to a QB Rating of 105.7"

 

Given Taylor had less attempts across the middle than other QBs, it's clearly an area where he must improve.

Still, it isn't the crippling handicap people make it out to be.

 

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/1/3/14146508/tyrod-taylor-bills-option-strong-evidence-suggests-buffalo-bills-should-keep-him

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-bills-should-build-around-tyrod-taylor-not-show-him-the-door

Edited July 10, 2017 by grb

[transplantbillsfan]

I know, right. Not even close to elite.

 

I guess he has a way different definition of elite.

 

He also had 506 yards rushing and a couple rushing TDs in those games, along with 1 lost fumble. I'd say 3,868 yards and 28 TDs to only 8 turnovers in what doesn't even equal a full season is production most would get behind.

 

And to be fair, Kirby said it was "borderline elite." I don't really agree with that if you consider just his passing numbers, but when you consider his production on the ground, which was just under 258 yards per game, there are only 9 NFL QBs averaging more yards passing per game in NFL history.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_per_g_career.htm

Taylor is not an elite QB.

 

Some may claim he's an elite runner, but isn't that what running backs are for?

 

Sure, except most of Taylor's production on the ground comes on passing plays, very often making a positive play out of what would have otherwise been a sack.

[transplantbillsfan]

I think TT has done good things. I'm not sold WCO is a perfect fit for him:

 

TT Fact: Taylor's dot plot and analysis of his throwing success show he's better down the sidelines and outside the hashes

 

WCO fact: uses lots of horizontal routes and slant/cross concepts with fewer vertical routes

 

So- how can a QB who has been cited as struggling to throw over the middle have greater success in an offense that emphasizes throwing over the middle? Also if one of his strengths the outside deep ball to vertical routes is limited, how's that help?

 

Actually, those "dot plots" and analyses of Taylor's throwing success don't show he's better down the sidelines and outside the hashes, they just show that he goes there more.

 

According to PFF, on passes beyond the LOS to the "middle of the field" up to 20 yards beyond the LOS (I think we can all agree it's probably those throws that are 5-15 yards beyond that are mostly the bread and butter of the WCO) Taylor was 82/112 (73.2%) for 839 yards for 7.5 YPA with 4 passing TDs and 0 INTs for a Passer Rating of 106.2.

 

 

And yeah, those are just numbers, but as I said earlier, go back and rewatch some of the passes in the handful of games right after Roman was let go and Lynn took over. You'll notice Lynn concentrated on incorporating more of these types of plays than Roman did. You'll see more of those "shallow cross" passes the article refers to particularly to Powell and Tate.

 

 

So it's not that Taylor can't do it, he just wasn't asked to do it much at all under Roman and then a little more under Lynn.