Article on why 2017 passing game can make giant leap forward

[NoSaint]

Quick decisions and reads are actually the plays I think Taylor would thrive in. The WCO often has it so the QB knows where he's going before the ball is snapped.

 

One thing I've observed (and I thought I remember there being data to support this) is that when Taylor takes snaps from under center and takes 3 or 5 step drops and delivers the ball, he's good; helps him to maintain his mechanics, too.

 

Go back and watch the first few games after Lynn took over and I think you'd see some good examples of those types of throws.

I think where we diverge is the difference between "Tyrod is capable of doing something extremely well with varying consistency" and "this is one of Tyrods strengths and something that will help him step up to average/above average starter by changing play calling to showcase it"

 

I've seen Tyrod make just about every play possible on the field and be electric but I think that some of his weaknesses do not lend themselves to these situations being a spot that are strengths and where he will outperform his peers in the league. To me that's the deep ball and putting pressure in the run game, not a quick passing game designed for short and inside throws.

 

The previous scheme, with maybe adding a few rollouts and shotgun playaction wrinkles seemed to really play to his strengths. Add some WR talent and maybe amp up a couple route tree options to free up the deep routes but...

[mead107]

19-0 Baby

[San-O]

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/07/07/west-coast-offense-tyrod-taylor-buffalo-bills/

 

Looks into reasons the Bills passing game and Taylor could be significantly improved in 2017.

 

Talks a little about the changes in personnel, but the interesting stuff is when it dissects the passing concepts we're supposedly going to be executing this year: play-action passes, simple route concepts, the shallow cross, etc.

 

 

Closes with:

 

 

 

Well, honestly they can't really fall back much more than where they already were: Also IF Taylor were going to improve, we would LIKELY have seen it by now.

[Kirby Jackson]

They were 19th DVOA passing offense last year. I expect a lot more passing yards but not necessarily a significantly higher ranking. They are going to throw the ball more so yards will go up. If they can get that DVOA to 15(ish) without sacraficing too much from that #1 running game the Bills will have a shot to move from a top 10 offense to a top 5.

[MAJBobby]

Yes more simplification in passing game to help out our blah QB. I cant wait until we get a real QB it has to happen sometime.

[transplantbillsfan]

Yes more simplification in passing game to help out our blah QB. I cant wait until we get a real QB it has to happen sometime.

It's not so much a simplification as the system itself, which simplifies certain things for the sake of efficiency.

Edited July 10, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

I think where we diverge is the difference between "Tyrod is capable of doing something extremely well with varying consistency" and "this is one of Tyrods strengths and something that will help him step up to average/above average starter by changing play calling to showcase it"

 

I've seen Tyrod make just about every play possible on the field and be electric but I think that some of his weaknesses do not lend themselves to these situations being a spot that are strengths and where he will outperform his peers in the league. To me that's the deep ball and putting pressure in the run game, not a quick passing game designed for short and inside throws.

 

The previous scheme, with maybe adding a few rollouts and shotgun playaction wrinkles seemed to really play to his strengths. Add some WR talent and maybe amp up a couple route tree options to free up the deep routes but...

I disagree. The previous system catered to his deep ball passing and his legs, both of which he excels at, but my concern was the types of passing routes Roman's system made the focal point (like comeback and sideline routes) that were most of Taylor's passes that set themselves up as plays with little YAC from the get go.

 

This is where I'll just disagree. But even last season Taylor's deep ball accuracy didn't really go away, it was more the lack of chemistry due to the revolving door at WR. But you could see when Lynn stepped in particularly that the quick timing routes to the middle of the field involving catch and run plays were incorporated more effectively to players like Tate and Powell in particular.

 

Those are the types of plays I hope to see more of along with the sprinkling in of deep passes with a hopefully healthy WR corps.

 

 

Oh yeah, and here's a link for some of that stuff I mentioned earlier.

 

http://www.cover1.net/2017/03/breaking-tyrod-taylors-contract-restructured/2017-03-08_15-52-12/

 

 

Only 20 play action passes under center in

2016, but 70% completions (with 3 throwaways), almost 10 YPA, a couple of sacks, a couple of TDs and no INTs with a QB Rating well over 100 isn't bad for a QB who's turning his back to the defense, is it?

[Charles Romes]

Doesn't the West Coast Offense require a QB who can deliver the short pass with great touch and accuracy? Didn't realize that was a strength of Tyrod.

[C.Biscuit97]

They were 19th DVOA passing offense last year. I expect a lot more passing yards but not necessarily a significantly higher ranking. They are going to throw the ball more so yards will go up. If they can get that DVOA to 15(ish) without sacraficing too much from that #1 running game the Bills will have a shot to move from a top 10 offense to a top 5.

No disrespect but this is where advanced stats become total BS. To have the Bills as a 19th ranked passing offense is kinda of a joke. There were like 2 games where this came close to resembling a NFL passing attack. Stats will never work in football like they do in other sports.

 

I know the obviously thing is to bash Roman for everything Taylor did bad. IMO, Roman used TT's strengths to mold this offense. A WCO is the exact opposite of what Taylor has shown he could do. He has never been a qb who makes quick decisions and gets the ball out of his hands quick. This offense fits Peterman a million times better than Taylor. Obviously, TT is the best qb on the roster at this point. But I think we asking a lot for him to do things he has never really been good at.

[Kirby Jackson]

No disrespect but this is where advanced stats become total BS. To have the Bills as a 19th ranked passing offense is kinda of a joke. There were like 2 games where this came close to resembling a NFL passing attack. Stats will never work in football like they do in other sports.

 

I know the obviously thing is to bash Roman for everything Taylor did bad. IMO, Roman used TT's strengths to mold this offense. A WCO is the exact opposite of what Taylor has shown he could do. He has never been a qb who makes quick decisions and gets the ball out of his hands quick. This offense fits Peterman a million times better than Taylor. Obviously, TT is the best qb on the roster at this point. But I think we asking a lot for him to do things he has never really been good at.

I agree some but advanced stats are the single best measuring tool that we have. They normalize things for comparison sake. Baltimore threw the ball more than any team in the league but their passing game wasn't good. That's why advanced stats do a much better job than looking at yards. The Bills passing attack was better than the Jets, 49ers, Bears, Eagles, Browns, Texans, Cardinals, Rams, Jags and Broncos (off the top of my head). That's 10 teams right there.

 

I do agree some on the scheme. The quick read offense doesn't play to his strengths but the play action does. Those numbers are in here somewhere. He's also been really good when all of his weapons have played. That, in many ways, speaks to how good Sammy is. His numbers in the 15 games where they've all played have been, borderline, elite. I didn't realize that until the Rob Quinn article.

Edited July 10, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[Big Gun]

I agree some but advanced stats are the single best measuring tool that we have. They normalize things for comparison sake. Baltimore threw the ball more than any team in the league but their passing game wasn't good. That's why advanced stats do a much better job than looking at yards. The Bills passing attack was better than the Jets, 49ers, Bears, Eagles, Browns, Texans, Cardinals, Rams, Jags and Broncos (off the top of my head). That's 10 teams right there.

 

I do agree some on the scheme. The quick read offense doesn't play to his strengths but the play action does. Those numbers are in here somewhere. He's also been really good when all of his weapons have played. That, in many ways, speaks to how good Sammy is. His numbers in the 15 games where they've all played have been, borderline, elite. I didn't realize that until the Rob Quinn article.

No!

[Kirby Jackson]

No!

 

In the 15 games that LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Charles Clay all played in, Taylor completed 64-percent of his passes for 3,362 yards, throwing 26 touchdowns and six interceptions.

 

Edited July 10, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[BmarvB]

Very good read. Thanks for the share. Setting up a system and concept to tailor to the strengths of the players makes perfect sense. Now if the defense can improve from last year, we'll at least have a winning season if not be playoff bound.

[Bangarang]

 

In the 15 games that LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Charles Clay all played in, Taylor completed 64-percent of his passes for 3,362 yards, throwing 26 touchdowns and six interceptions.

 

That's not elite.

[Big Gun]

That's not elite.

I know, right. Not even close to elite.

 

I guess he has a way different definition of elite.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Taylor is not an elite QB.

 

Some may claim he's an elite runner, but isn't that what running backs are for?

[Bangarang]

I know, right. Not even close to elite.

 

I guess he has a way different definition of elite.

I'd still be pretty happy with those numbers

[Kirby Jackson]

That's not elite.

We don't know how many passing attempts he had in those 15 games (I don't feel like doing that math) but based on his career yards per attempt we are looking at about 30 attempts a game. That would still be 32nd in attempts across the NFL. Despite the fewest attempts they would be 24th in yards. The TD to INT ratio would be 4.67 to 1 (tied top 5 and exactly the same as Derek Carr in 2016). They are only behind Brady, Dak, Rodgers and Ryan. I think that an almost 5:1 TD to INT ratio would classify as "borderline" elite. Maybe that is a stretch but it would still be very strong.

 

If the Bills threw more the gross numbers would rise quite a bit. They threw the ball a lot less than any team in the league. If you took the league average in pass attempts (36.1 attempts per game) and applied Tyrod's career numbers to it, it would look like this: 62.3% completion, 4,274 yards, 25 TDS, 9 INTS. Again, that is just what he does through the air. That would certainly look like a good passing game. 4,274 yards would be 7th, 62.3% 19th (ironically where he already is), 25 TDs (13th), 9 INTS (near the best in the league).

 

I guess I am just saying that we need to look at the attempts to figure things out. They are going to go up this year. The Bills will throw for more yards and people will mistake that for an improved passing game. That isn't necessarily the case. On a per attempt basis they are near the middle of the league, with a top of the league TD to INT ratio. It certainly can be better. Carson Palmer threw the ball 161 times more than Tyrod last year in the same number of games. Shouldn't he have more yards, TDs and INTs? Of course, that is simple logic. When looking at the Bills passing or running game (or any team) we need to look what they do on an attempt basis.

Edited July 10, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[Gugny]

They were 19th DVOA passing offense last year. I expect a lot more passing yards but not necessarily a significantly higher ranking. They are going to throw the ball more so yards will go up. If they can get that DVOA to 15(ish) without sacraficing too much from that #1 running game the Bills will have a shot to move from a top 10 offense to a top 5.

 

If they can score the points when they matter most, this will be great.

 

We already know that TT and this offense can wrack up pretty stats.

 

Now we need, once and for all, to see if they can get into the end zone when we need it.

[grb]

That's not elite.

 

 

OK : 64-percent of his passes for 3,362 yards, throwing 26 touchdowns and six interceptions isn't "elite" - although the 8+ yards per attempt left out of those stats is also a nice touch.

 

But that illustrates the problem with the Great Tyrod Message Board War. Very few people who are "supporters" have claimed Taylor is elite. Instead they've claimed Taylor's strengths are undervalued while his weaknesses are overvalued. They claim he's still got a lot of upside. They point out he's only a second year starter and many quarterbacks (Kirk Cousins comes to mind) has looked much worse when first put under center.

 

Meanwhile, many of the anti-Taylors say :

• He can't process game speed
• He's a running back pretending to be a quarterback
• He has no accuracy
• He can't see the field
• He doesn't understand defenses
• He easy to scheme against
• He never throws in the middle
• He never stays in the pocket
• Etc.

Now, the "pro" viewpoint may be glass-half-full rosy, but it's not the total caricature of the "anti" viewpoint. Because the numbers quoted of Taylor with a full cast may not be "elite", but they're well above what any quarterback would produce if saddled with even half the irredeemable flaws TT's critics claim for him.

Edited July 10, 2017 by grb