Chilly Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 There is nothing that is "predicting" here. It simply shows that teams records from one year to the next fluctuate a lot more than most people think, and past performance is never a guarantee of future success.(Kind of like the stock market disclaimers) People are trying to use past team strength as a prediction for the next year's strength of schedule, so yes there is a prediction there, and the model used in that prediction is very poor (simply: what did they do last year?) This doesn't mean it's impossible to create a decent model to predict strength of schedule; it means that simply going off of last season's results to predict this season's strength of schedule is a bad way to do it.
Buffalo Boy Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 Considering the general parity in the NFL, this seems pretty obvious. Every year you have teams that go from being pretty good to mediocrity (Jets, Bengals) or go from mediocrity to being pretty good (Atlanta) or go from sucking to being pretty good (Titans) or go from mediocrity to being great (Oakland) or go from great to sucking (Carolina) or go from sucking to being great (Dallas). And all that was just last year. The most consistent teams in the NFL have probably been the Browns for sucking, the Bills for mediocrity, and the Pats for greatness. It doesn't help that we play in the same division as the Pats. But, in the end, looking at our schedule and circling games like Atlanta and Carolina as losses seems like grasping at straws. I actually think Atlanta's going to feel the loss of Shanahan and take a step back from what they were last year. And Carolina... well, they sucked last year. Circling that as a loss seems like purely a guess. Atlanta and Carolina both have systems that have been in place for a while. Buffalo is playing in Carolina the second week of the season. The Bills will still be in the process of learning their schemes in all facets of the game. Every prediction is a guess. Some are just more educated than others.
transplantbillsfan Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 (edited) Atlanta and Carolina both have systems that have been in place for a while. Buffalo is playing in Carolina the second week of the season. The Bills will still be in the process of learning their schemes in all facets of the game. Every prediction is a guess. Some are just more educated than others. Atlanta just lost their OC and Carolina just lost their DC... so maybe they have partial systems in place, but not entire ones. Plus, again, Carolina sucked last year. Edited July 7, 2017 by transplantbillsfan
Chandler#81 Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 Not to be smug but I did think we would beat the Cardinals and the Rams. I had the Cardinals taking a big step back similar the way I have Denver doing this year. I didn't have the Jets or the Dolphins sweeping us though that is true. I like to think I am pretty good at spotting a team whose window has closed and is about to have a down year or two though and Denver is every inch that team this year. The Cardinals were 13-3 in '15. Only reason they didn't make the SB was they lost Palmer and his back up very late in the season. If you actually predicted a Bills win last offseason, whatever you're doing to make a living, you're in the wrong bidniz.
Thurman#1 Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 Me three. Wouldn't even think twice. Well I never felt like Lynch had much of a chance coming out. He was my "not with a barge pole" player of the 2016 draft. Siemian is a perfect stylistic fit for Kubiak and Dennison - a poor man's Matt Schaub. Let's see how he transitions into Mike McCoy's offense - I suspect not well. And the defense keeps getting older and keeps losing peices and they lost Wade. I don't know much about Lynch, really, but I think you're underestimating Siemian. Siemian went into his first NFL action, in his second year, and came up with an 84.9 passer rating. And it was behind an OL that wasn't doing him any favors. He could be a good one. Still too early to say, but he did well for what a young inexperienced guy he is, a guy who wasn't exactly a first-rounder either. I think they're gonna be pretty good. But I'm no Nostradamus. We'll see.
Doc Brown Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 We lucked out on our quarterback opponents as we only have to take on Brady twice, Brees, Rivers, Carr, Ryan, Newton, and Luck. We're screwed.
Buffalo Boy Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 Atlanta just lost their OC and Carolina just lost their DC... so maybe they have partial systems in place, but not entire ones. Plus, again, Carolina sucked last year. Both teams are going to continue to run the same schemes under the new coordinators. Both teams have better talent than the Bills IMO. I don't want the Bills to lose these games but think they will.
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 The Cardinals were 13-3 in '15. Only reason they didn't make the SB was they lost Palmer and his back up very late in the season. If you actually predicted a Bills win last offseason, whatever you're doing to make a living, you're in the wrong bidniz. They were 7-8-1 last year. They beat NE if the holder doesn't drop the ball on a game winning FG. They missed 2 FGs against Seattle - including a 24 yarder in overtime to win. They also missed 2 XPs and a FG in a 3 point loss to miami. 1 of the XPs was returned for a 2pt conversion - all in a 3 point last second loss. That's the difference between 10-6 and 7-8-1...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 They were 7-8-1 last year. They beat NE if the holder doesn't drop the ball on a game winning FG. They missed 2 FGs against Seattle - including a 24 yarder in overtime to win. They also missed 2 XPs and a FG in a 3 point loss to miami. 1 of the XPs was returned for a 2pt conversion - all in a 3 point last second loss. That's the difference between 10-6 and 7-8-1... I feel like you could do a very similar analysis for the Bills with similar results
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 I feel like you could do a very similar analysis for the Bills with similar results I mean - seattle and MIA-2 come to mind. MIA1, OAK, PIT, NE2 were all not even as close as the scoreboard indicated. However, win the seattle and miami 2nd game... and the NYJ game has actual ramifications.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 I mean - seattle and MIA-2 come to mind. MIA1, OAK, PIT, NE2 were all not even as close as the scoreboard indicated. However, win the seattle and miami 2nd game... and the NYJ game has actual ramifications. Had they not blown the lead by reverting to the run against the Raiders the Miami loss might not have mattered and then the JETS game may have been important enough for the team to want to win.
Big Gun Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 You like Siemian but Tyrod not so much? I'd take Tyrod any day of the week over Siemian. Taking a pro bowler over a pro bowler.
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 Had they not blown the lead by reverting to the run against the Raiders the Miami loss might not have mattered and then the JETS game may have been important enough for the team to want to win. The issue was the predictable nature of our run attack in that game. It was so obvious on 1st down that we were going to run. We came out swinging in that game, and just wilted so horribly. Taking a pro bowler over a pro bowler. Siemian - more yards passing, more passing attempts, slightly better YPA, fewer sacks. Tyrod - More yards rushing, Better completion %, more total TDs, 11 more sacks, but for only 5 more yards, fewer turnovers. Siemian had quite a few games with a ton of attempts, and didn't really have great numbers. 30/50 for 230 and a TD? 17/43 for 183 and 1 INT? gross.
GunnerBill Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 (edited) The Cardinals were 13-3 in '15. Only reason they didn't make the SB was they lost Palmer and his back up very late in the season. If you actually predicted a Bills win last offseason, whatever you're doing to make a living, you're in the wrong bidniz. I did. I will find the post... but you are getting two years mixed up. 2014 was the year Palmer got injured and the replacements sucked in the playoffs against Carolina. In 2015 Palmer started to look a bit old at the end of the year and in the playoffs. As I say, over the years I have been reasonably good at predicting when teams that have had a run are about to fall off. You like Siemian but Tyrod not so much? I'd take Tyrod any day of the week over Siemian. So would I - but do think Siemian is a pretty good fit for the O we are about to run. Edited July 7, 2017 by GunnerBill
BuffaloHokie13 Posted July 7, 2017 Posted July 7, 2017 I did. I will find the post... but you are getting two years mixed up. 2014 was the year Palmer got injured and the replacements sucked in the playoffs against Carolina. In 2015 Palmer started to look a bit old at the end of the year and in the playoffs. As I say, over the years I have been reasonably good at predicting when teams that have had a run are about to fall off. So would I - but do think Siemian is a pretty good fit for the O we are about to run. We saw him in it for a year. He was serviceable for sure. I wonder how he'd fare with a better run game but worse receiving targets (essentially our situation). I'm still of the opinion that our O is going to look more like 2015 Seattle's than 2016 Denver's.
plenzmd1 Posted July 13, 2017 Posted July 13, 2017 This is really good analysis from Warren Sharp, who is extremely good with analytics and projected win totals etc. He knows you cannot base SOS solely on records, and bases his SOS on projected win totals for this year, totals for run/pass defense etc. some interesting tidbits : 1) Bills have toughest SOS in league after game 1..(again based on his expected win totals for 2017) 2) Last year faced 6th toughest schedule against the run, this year projected to be 18th ( that should be good) 3) Face 3rd toughest schedule of opposing pass offenses 4) KC looks like they could take a big step back...really interesting talk starts around the 18-minute mark. 5) thinks AFC West is overrated --like's the Chargers...not as high on Derek Carr as the rest of the world. really good listen... http://www.wgr550.com/media/audio-channel/07-12-warren-sharp-sharp-football-analysis-john-murphy-show-sal-capacciomp3
GunnerBill Posted July 13, 2017 Posted July 13, 2017 This is really good analysis from Warren Sharp, who is extremely good with analytics and projected win totals etc. He knows you cannot base SOS solely on records, and bases his SOS on projected win totals for this year, totals for run/pass defense etc. some interesting tidbits : 1) Bills have toughest SOS in league after game 1..(again based on his expected win totals for 2017) 2) Last year faced 6th toughest schedule against the run, this year projected to be 18th ( that should be good) 3) Face 3rd toughest schedule of opposing pass offenses 4) KC looks like they could take a big step back...really interesting talk starts around the 18-minute mark. 5) thinks AFC West is overrated --like's the Chargers...not as high on Derek Carr as the rest of the world. really good listen... http://www.wgr550.com/media/audio-channel/07-12-warren-sharp-sharp-football-analysis-john-murphy-show-sal-capacciomp3 I am with him 100% on 5). Think the Broncos are going to be bad, KC around .500 and Oakland a small step back maybe into the 9-7 range. The Chargers could be a sleeper.
Thurman#1 Posted July 13, 2017 Posted July 13, 2017 You like Siemian but Tyrod not so much? I'd take Tyrod any day of the week over Siemian. Yup, I'd take Siemian over Tyrod. Not if they were both third year guys. But Tyrod is going into his seventh. And seventh year guys who aren't franchise guys make the big leap up to the franchise level almost never.
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 13, 2017 Posted July 13, 2017 Yup, I'd take Siemian over Tyrod. Not if they were both third year guys. But Tyrod is going into his seventh. And seventh year guys who aren't franchise guys make the big leap up to the franchise level almost never. Contract is certainly cheaper, but i think Tyrod is a better player.
transplantbillsfan Posted July 13, 2017 Posted July 13, 2017 I don't know much about Lynch, really, but I think you're underestimating Siemian. Siemian went into his first NFL action, in his second year, and came up with an 84.9 passer rating. And it was behind an OL that wasn't doing him any favors. He could be a good one. Still too early to say, but he did well for what a young inexperienced guy he is, a guy who wasn't exactly a first-rounder either. I think they're gonna be pretty good. But I'm no Nostradamus. We'll see. Passer Rating, huh? 89.6 > 84.9 So does this mean Taylor "could be a good one" even more than Siemian? Both teams are going to continue to run the same schemes under the new coordinators. Both teams have better talent than the Bills IMO. I don't want the Bills to lose these games but think they will. Friendly bet Buffalo wins one of them?
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