Orlando Buffalo Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 This thread cracks me up in many ways. I teach math to high school students and many of the students who do not understand the math in word problems say the math is wrong. While the data set is limited in what it means it is accurate and it a mathematical fact that using the previous year record to determine strength of schedule does not produce usable results.
JM2009 Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Yea I'm confused by the Denver love. If Lynch emerges then yes they will be a tough team, if he doesn't then they will be very mediocre. I agree. Denver is not scary anymore.
Boatdrinks Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 The Bills schedule is always hard. Two games are against Brady, half the games are on the road. In other words, it's hard because the Bills just aren't that good.
Talley56 Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Respect for Denver makes a ton of sense. They have two third-year guys at QB, both in a very good position to show a lot of improvement. They had nine wins last year with a second-year QB who'd never thrown a pass. This year that guy has a year's experience and the other guy probably is starting to understand what he's looking at. There's very good reason to respect them and predict a considerably better outcome than here in Buffalo this year. Heh heh heh heh. Not seeing it with Denver. Their QBs may have another year's worth of experience but none of them have proven anything. They lost both Kubiak and Phillips. I cannot stress how detrimental losing even one of the two will be. And they lost both. Barring a situation where maybe Lynch steps in at QB and proves to be a surprising stud I have actually been predicting a pretty disastrous year for Denver and I'll be surprised if it turns out any other way.
Adam727 Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 I don't claim to be particularly smart, so I'll apologize in advance if I completely misunderstood something. But in reading the article, that first chart appears to just compare pre-season estimated SOS to actual SOS. So the fact that the teams with the toughest pre-season SOS had easier regular season SOSs than the pre-season estimates seems to just show that over time most NFL teams revert to parity. It doesn't appear to mention what the actual SOSs turned out to be at all. If a team's pre-season SOS was .550 and their actual SOS ended up being .540 when the year was over, then it was easier than expected but still tougher than the average team that year. The second chart with the dots seems to show that 14 teams with a .500 or easier pre-season SOS ended up with an 8-8 or better record and only 5 teams with a .501 or tougher pre-season SOS had an 8-8 or better record last year. Which would seem to indicate that last year teams with pre-season SOSs of .500 or less were almost 3x more likely to have 8-8 or better records than teams with tougher SOSs, which would seem to run counter to the author's argument. I don't want to comment on the correlation coefficient the author mentioned because it doesn't appear to say how it was calculated, but the first two charts don't seem to make the author's point for him very well. (again unless I'm completely misunderstanding something) It makes sense to me that a tougher schedule = less likely to win as many games. If the relationship between pre-season SOS and # of wins is actually negative does that mean a team that plays the team with the worst record the year before (Browns) twice a year statistically has a worse chance of making the playoffs than a team who plays the team that won the superbowl (Patriots) twice a year? That would seem odd if true. I understand a lot can and will change before the season starts but I still would think playing NE, NE, Atlanta, Carolina, Oakland etc hurts our chances more than helps..
GunnerBill Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 That's not analytics, that's a useless bunch of elementary plots that wouldn't conclude any thing... ever. Strength of schedule and it's impact on a given team must be individualized and nomrmalized so it's relative. Strength of schedule based on prior results if impacting in any way, would surely impact the strong, weak and marginal teams quite differently- if at all. This. Absolutely this. If people think the original post was "analytics" they don't understand what analytics means. It doesn't mean "anything with numbers".
wilcoam Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Denver, who are not projected by most to be a playoff team in 2017, on the road, and in Buffalo, IMO is a winnable game Then again I have to laugh at the thought that Brady and Bellicheck at looking at our new revamped D and in nay way being really concerned, lol Last year they had to look at getting passes completed with pro bowl Zack, Gilmore, Robey-Colemen, and Graham on the field This year it'll be Hodges, a rookie, the Browns injured first year starting safety, and Green Bay's backup CB/S, lol Scheme aside helping what looks like on paper to be paper thin in talent, and lacking NFL starting exp, I would not be so cocky Maybe this unheralded group surprises by the time we take on the Pats late in the season but its not something that's assured What is more assured unfort is Brady completing alot of passes regardless jc
LeGOATski Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 (edited) Consider that actual fluctuation that goes on year to year. Between the teams that made the playoffs the previous year and those that do in the current year, there's usually a 2 or 3 team difference. There's a little more fluctuation with the bottom rung teams. I think you can still look at a schedule and if you see a bunch of playoff teams and above-average teams for the prior year, then you can make an educated guess at "strength of schedule." It's not a big deal. If you're an actual player on the team, though, you are much better served by optimism... Edited July 5, 2017 by LeGOATski
fansince88 Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Let's get something clear at this juncture. IT'S A !@#$ING GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! There is no "surrendering." There are no "warriors," or "heroes." Football is a game. Furthermore, you don't know Kim Pegula and she certainly doesn't give two craps about you. So stop pretending that you're "offended" because I called her a gold digger. It's a game. That's it. She is beautiful and young. He is much older and rich....I dont see how you could call her a gold digger....
GunnerBill Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 If I had to choose between Denver being good or a disaster, id go with disaster but probably some where in between. Same but I see sub .500. 6-10ish.
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 (edited) We play NE twice, I can predict those.... losses. The NFC South is a good division. We would be lucky to come out with 2 wins . By my way of thinking we already have 5 losses between those two. Raiders... loss Chiefs....,.loss Broncos... loss Do we beat Miami twice? 1 loss Just like last year and the year before that. We preseason prognosticators have unfortunately been correct far too often with this team P.S. 6-10 Last year - we were to lose to the patriots twice, arizona, cinn, seattle, oakland, pittsburgh. In the end we got swept by NYJ and MIA which ended up costing us the playoffs. We won 3 of the 7 we were supposed to lose, and almost beat seattle. If we played better on defense against the jets and dolphins, we were in the playoffs. Edited July 5, 2017 by dneveu
fansince88 Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Btw... hard schedule for a team that took days off for victory Monday and the coach told the players what they wanted to hear? Yes. We have a new coach and I think the preparation will be different. I see us battling through some of those guaranteed "losses"
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Btw... hard schedule for a team that took days off for victory Monday and the coach told the players what they wanted to hear? Yes. We have a new coach and I think the preparation will be different. I see us battling through some of those guaranteed "losses" not defending Rex, but I can say that the players usually showed up at OBD on "victory Mondays"
H2o Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 19-0 Baby. Just like the Senator always said. I saw someone take it a step further the other day and put 23-0 counting the preseason.
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Teams definitely fluctuate from year to year. Carolina was 15-1 in 2015, and 6-10 last year. Yes they gutted the defense, but they also scored like 150 fewer points. Miami had a -17 point differential, and finished 10-6. Turnovers tend to fluctuate from year to year as well (NE is a notable exception, you basically get fired if you fumble). 13 teams committed fewer than 20 turnovers last year. 9 made the playoffs. Keep your turnovers down, you tend to keep yourself in games. KC and Oakland both were at +16 last year to lead the league, a small regression there towards the mean and neither teams record is as good.
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Not seeing it with Denver. Their QBs may have another year's worth of experience but none of them have proven anything. They lost both Kubiak and Phillips. I cannot stress how detrimental losing even one of the two will be. And they lost both. Barring a situation where maybe Lynch steps in at QB and proves to be a surprising stud I have actually been predicting a pretty disastrous year for Denver and I'll be surprised if it turns out any other way. They have good pieces if either of the QBs can prove to be competent. Sanders, Thomas, solid running game.
fansince88 Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 (edited) not defending Rex, but I can say that the players usually showed up at OBD on "victory Mondays" Yes they did. That said see MG quote now that he is a Patriot. Going from the Bills to the Patriots and the difference in practice is the difference in winning. The players wanted to put in the extra work. The leader was lazy. Edited July 5, 2017 by fansince88
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Yes they did. That said see MG quote now that he is a Patriot. Going from the Bills to the Patriots and the difference in practice is the difference in winning. The players wanted to put in the extra work. The leader was lazy. Again not defending .. Whats MG going to say? The Pats are lazy?
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Again not defending .. Whats MG going to say? The Pats are lazy? With the limited number of practices with and without pads, i imagine belichick demands all-out effort consistently.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 With the limited number of practices with and without pads, i imagine belichick demands all-out effort consistently. Belicheat demands more than physical play on the field. He wants players to know how to read the field and provide the correct answer when he asks them. Until the Bills offense proves it can win in a shootout nothing will change. I'm not saying abandon the run, I'm asking for the Bills to be able to pass the ball when needed to and have success.
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