Big Turk Posted July 4, 2017 Author Posted July 4, 2017 (edited) So if analytics are so super awesome, why do teams fail in the NFL Draft? Analytics is just another fancy application like what the sharps used to do when they published gambling books on how to win at X, Y, or Z. It STILL does not guarantee jack and it doesn't guarantee our schedule is EASIER either... it's just a trend and nothing more. Because there are so many things that can't be measured...work ethic...how much they accept coaching or think they know it all...injuries...being put in a bad scheme fit and being asked to do things they can't do well...how much money changes them...who they associate with once they have money... I'd say 30-35% of NFL players who are viewed as "failures" are mostly scheme fit failures Edited July 4, 2017 by matter2003
EasternOHBillsFan Posted July 4, 2017 Posted July 4, 2017 Because there are so many things that can't be measured...work ethic...how much they accept coaching or think they know it all...injuries...being put in a bad scheme fit and being asked to do things they can't do well...how much money changes them...who they associate with once they have money... I'd say 30-35% of NFL players who are viewed as "failures" are mostly scheme fit failures So the very idea that there is a system for success in professional football, analytics, is really a bogus idea. Like gambling, you can increase the odds of success POSSIBLY, but the odds are still the odds. You can never predict whether or not you get a Curtis Martin or a Shawne Merriman... a Warren Sapp or an Albert Haynesworth... an Andrew Luck or a JaMarcus Russell. Injuries... mental issues... drug issues... it just cannot be defined to be sure.
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted July 4, 2017 Posted July 4, 2017 Patriots have no tape on the New Bills. We have the advantage, and yes i am serious. Thank you for this, I haven't laughed that hard in a few months.
atlbillsfan1975 Posted July 4, 2017 Posted July 4, 2017 It happens each season. Mediocre teams everyone expects will be better, aren't. Good teams from the previous year turn out to be one year wonders. And then there are injuries that decimate a team. The thing I use to root for back in the 90's was for a team to win before they played the Bills. I like playing a team after a win more than after a loss. Unless it is the browns from the past 3 years.
zonabb Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Well, as someone who sat through my share of graduate stats courses, I'll call BS on this. One season's worth of data is what any stats 101 student is taught to ID as spurious or in laymen's term's, cherry picking. Any moron with a Excel, two variables, and some barely passing understanding of correlation can run this analysis. The results only tell us about last season. One year in the entire history of the NFL. No more, no less. If you want to run with that proof as of anything well, I have some East Side property for a few hundred thousands I'll sell you. And because it's written by a biased Bills fan masquerading as a "reporter" whose education and experience with statistical analysis is unstated, I'd suggest not taking this with anything more than a giant grain of rose colored salt. Beyond that, without going way down the rabbit hole, correlation is a useless method to tell us anything about what causes wins. Strength of schedules doesn't cause wins or losses... remember, correlation doesn't equal causation. A more robust method (some form of regression) that takes into account actual factors playing a significant roll in wins and loss, like I don't know, draft and free agency acquisitions/losses, games lost to injury, turnovers, offensive statistics, defensive statistics, etc. would tell us more about wins than this garbage analysis.
Thurman#1 Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 (edited) https://www.buffalor...n-metric-stupid "The correlation coefficient between a team’s preseason strength of schedule and their eventual winning percentage is -0.0861. If you want mathematical proof that the slate for a team going into a season has almost nothing to do with how the season will turn out, well, there you go." Meaning there is absolutely NO---let me say that again for all thsoe "off season schedule readers" out there---NO!!! correlation to a "tough" schedule before the season starts to a tough schedule when the season is playing out. In fact, if anything, it shows there might be a correlation to it being the OPPOSITE----teams with alledgedly hard schedules end up with easier schedules than thought, and vise versa So let's stop talking about the how "tough" the schedule looks because as I have been saying for years, it's BS, and analytics just proved it. Well, of course not. Of course how good the team is is going to have a great deal more impact on their record than projected strength of schedule. Duh. The question isn't whether projected strength of schedule correlates to wins. It's whether projected strength of schedule correlates to actual strength of schedule and how strongly. And how actual strength of schedule correlates to wins and how strongly. Plus, as Zonabb says above, one season of data says very very little in terms of proof anyway. Edited July 5, 2017 by Thurman#1
Royale with Cheese Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 I think you're nuts. This schedule is brutal. They're starting the year 0-2 with NE games. We can't count on AJ Green leaving the game in the 1st again when we play CIN. Not only are we playing the defending champions twice, but we're also playing the runner up. Every single team, except the Jets, has a better QB than we do. I look at this schedule and the only two "should win," games are against the Jets. I'ts brutal. 2015 Carolina Panthers 15-1 Denver Broncos 12-4 Both teams in Super Bowl 2016 Carolina Panthers 6-10 Denver Broncos 9-7 Both teams miss the playoffs. Every year teams surprise or disappoint....every year. 2017 won't be any different. We don't know how hard the schedule is until at least week 8 into the season. You're crying now for the sake of crying.
Augie Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 2015 Carolina Panthers 15-1 Denver Broncos 12-4 Both teams in Super Bowl 2016 Carolina Panthers 6-10 Denver Broncos 9-7 Both teams miss the playoffs. Every year teams surprise or disappoint....every year. 2017 won't be any different. We don't know how hard the schedule is until at least week 8 into the season. You're crying now for the sake of crying. Can it PLEASE be our year to surprise? You know....in a GOOD way?
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 It's ridiculous. You don't know who will be good and who will suck before the season starts.... Unless your the Browns or Bills. I know who'll be good and who'll be bad... Good: Falcons, Patriots, Packers, Seahawks, Steelers, Raiders, Giants, Bad: Bills, Browns, Bears, Rams, 49ers, Jets, Dolphins,
boyst Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Denver isn't what they have been, I don't think. QB situation is not good. Very beatable playing in Buffalo. the defense against our offense, i'm giving it to their defense no doubt about it. taylor isn't cam newton, he's far better. but they're still good enough to stop him.
White Linen Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 I know who'll be good and who'll be bad... Good: Falcons, Patriots, Packers, Seahawks, Steelers, Raiders, Giants, Bad: Bills, Browns, Bears, Rams, 49ers, Jets, Dolphins, I could have sworn there were more teams
3rdand12 Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Thank you for this, I haven't laughed that hard in a few months. good to find you actually have a sense of humor
#34fan Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 (edited) I respect analytics to a certain degree... However, looking ahead we face a lot of run-heavy teams... CAR, MIA, DEN, ATL, OAK (with a re-dedicated Marshawn Lynch)... We had the third-worst run defense in the league last season.... Not sure if McDoomed changes that overnight... Hard to be an optimist when the blueprint for beating us is so simple... RUN THE DAMN BALL DOWN THEIR THROAT.... Edited July 5, 2017 by #34fan
Augie Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 I could have sworn there were more teams And how many "good teams" will fail to make the playoffs? How many of the bad teams will surprise to some extent?
Big Gun Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Patriots have no tape on the New Bills. We have the advantage, and yes i am serious. Not right now they don't but once the season starts they will have 11 weeks worth of tape and 4 preseason games of tape. I think that's more than enough for BB and TB.
Thurman#1 Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 Well, as someone who sat through my share of graduate stats courses, I'll call BS on this. One season's worth of data is what any stats 101 student is taught to ID as spurious or in laymen's term's, cherry picking. Any moron with a Excel, two variables, and some barely passing understanding of correlation can run this analysis. The results only tell us about last season. One year in the entire history of the NFL. No more, no less. If you want to run with that proof as of anything well, I have some East Side property for a few hundred thousands I'll sell you. And because it's written by a biased Bills fan masquerading as a "reporter" whose education and experience with statistical analysis is unstated, I'd suggest not taking this with anything more than a giant grain of rose colored salt. Beyond that, without going way down the rabbit hole, correlation is a useless method to tell us anything about what causes wins. Strength of schedules doesn't cause wins or losses... remember, correlation doesn't equal causation. A more robust method (some form of regression) that takes into account actual factors playing a significant roll in wins and loss, like I don't know, draft and free agency acquisitions/losses, games lost to injury, turnovers, offensive statistics, defensive statistics, etc. would tell us more about wins than this garbage analysis. Yea I'm confused by the Denver love. If Lynch emerges then yes they will be a tough team, if he doesn't then they will be very mediocre. Respect for Denver makes a ton of sense. They have two third-year guys at QB, both in a very good position to show a lot of improvement. They had nine wins last year with a second-year QB who'd never thrown a pass. This year that guy has a year's experience and the other guy probably is starting to understand what he's looking at. There's very good reason to respect them and predict a considerably better outcome than here in Buffalo this year. I know who'll be good and who'll be bad... Good: Falcons, Patriots, Packers, Seahawks, Steelers, Raiders, Giants, Bad: Bills, Browns, Bears, Rams, 49ers, Jets, Dolphins, Heh heh heh heh.
Buffalo Boy Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 https://www.buffalor...n-metric-stupid "The correlation coefficient between a teams preseason strength of schedule and their eventual winning percentage is -0.0861. If you want mathematical proof that the slate for a team going into a season has almost nothing to do with how the season will turn out, well, there you go." Meaning there is absolutely NO---let me say that again for all thsoe "off season schedule readers" out there---NO!!! correlation to a "tough" schedule before the season starts to a tough schedule when the season is playing out. In fact, if anything, it shows there might be a correlation to it being the OPPOSITE----teams with alledgedly hard schedules end up with easier schedules than thought, and vise versa So let's stop talking about the how "tough" the schedule looks because as I have been saying for years, it's BS, and analytics just proved it.
KOKBILLS Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 https://www.buffalor...n-metric-stupid "The correlation coefficient between a team’s preseason strength of schedule and their eventual winning percentage is -0.0861. If you want mathematical proof that the slate for a team going into a season has almost nothing to do with how the season will turn out, well, there you go." Meaning there is absolutely NO---let me say that again for all thsoe "off season schedule readers" out there---NO!!! correlation to a "tough" schedule before the season starts to a tough schedule when the season is playing out. In fact, if anything, it shows there might be a correlation to it being the OPPOSITE----teams with alledgedly hard schedules end up with easier schedules than thought, and vise versa So let's stop talking about the how "tough" the schedule looks because as I have been saying for years, it's BS, and analytics just proved it. Thank you...I've been saying this for years...No one knows preseason...It's just something for the talking heads to yap about...Crazy things always happen...Injuries are MAJOR wildcard...There's a reason why no one talks about preseason strength of schedule during the season...Because after a few weeks it all gets blown to hell...
Buffalo Boy Posted July 5, 2017 Posted July 5, 2017 (edited) We play NE twice, I can predict those.... losses. The NFC South is a good division. We would be lucky to come out with 2 wins . By my way of thinking we already have 5 losses between those two. Raiders... loss Chiefs....,.loss Broncos... loss Do we beat Miami twice? 1 loss Just like last year and the year before that. We preseason prognosticators have unfortunately been correct far too often with this team😳 P.S. 6-10 Edited July 5, 2017 by Buffalo Boy
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