Stop with "Schedule is Hard"--Analytics says it BS

[Big Turk]

https://www.buffalor...n-metric-stupid

"The correlation coefficient between a team’s preseason strength of schedule and their eventual winning percentage is -0.0861. If you want mathematical proof that the slate for a team going into a season has almost nothing to do with how the season will turn out, well, there you go."

Meaning there is absolutely NO---let me say that again for all thsoe "off season schedule readers" out there---NO!!! correlation to a "tough" schedule before the season starts to a tough schedule when the season is playing out.

In fact, if anything, it shows there might be a correlation to it being the OPPOSITE----teams with alledgedly hard schedules end up with easier schedules than thought, and vise versa

So let's stop talking about the how "tough" the schedule looks because as I have been saying for years, it's BS, and analytics just proved it.

Edited July 4, 2017 by matter2003

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

https://www.buffalor...n-metric-stupid

"The correlation coefficient between a team’s preseason strength of schedule and their eventual winning percentage is -0.0861. If you want mathematical proof that the slate for a team going into a season has almost nothing to do with how the season will turn out, well, there you go."

Meaning there is absolutely NO---let me say that again for all thsoe "off season schedule readers" out there---NO!!! correlation to a "tough" schedule before the season starts to a tough schedule when the season is playing out.

In fact, if anything, it shows there might be a correlation to it being the OPPOSITE----teams with alledgedly hard schedules end up with easier schedules than thought, and vise versa

So let's stop talking about the how "tough" the schedule looks because as I have been saying for years, it's BS, and analytics just proved it.

 

...thanks for the find....was hoping a TBD stat rat would do a comparative analysis of pre-season prognostications versus final results.....no way to predict injuries, releases, suspensions, demotions, other roster changes etc, bad weather.........so if the schedule looks tough, guess you just mail it in to satisfy the "let's tank crowd"....come September, just cannot envision the "white flag of tough schedule surrender" flying over The Hat.........

Edited July 4, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[Gugny]

I think you're nuts. This schedule is brutal. They're starting the year 0-2 with NE games. We can't count on AJ Green leaving the game in the 1st again when we play CIN. Not only are we playing the defending champions twice, but we're also playing the runner up. Every single team, except the Jets, has a better QB than we do.

 

I look at this schedule and the only two "should win," games are against the Jets.

 

I'ts brutal.

[iinii]

One must always remember, "it's hard to win in the NFL!"

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

I think you're nuts. This schedule is brutal. They're starting the year 0-2 with NE games. We can't count on AJ Green leaving the game in the 1st again when we play CIN. Not only are we playing the defending champions twice, but we're also playing the runner up. Every single team, except the Jets, has a better QB than we do.

 

I look at this schedule and the only two "should win," games are against the Jets.

 

I'ts brutal.

 

for your eyes only. although I'm sure there are others who are crying about the schedule being so brutal.

 

 

there are no they "should" win games anymore then there are they "shouldn't" win games.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

for your eyes only. although I'm sure there are others who are crying about the schedule being so brutal.

 

 

there are no they "should" win games anymore then there are they "shouldn't" win games.

.... yup, he's the Betsy Ross of TBD preparing the white flag of surrender.....same driveler trashing Kim Pegula.....so consider the source '73....Happy 4th bro............

[H2o]

for your eyes only. although I'm sure there are others who are crying about the schedule being so brutal.

 

 

there are no they "should" win games anymore then there are they "shouldn't" win games.

 

I don't think it is really "crying" as you put it my friend, but more of an observation. People correlating teams' previous year success with those whom we are facing this year. Overall win % of teams we faced last year versus this year based on last year. Looking at the schedule that fell upon us for 2017 it does look harder than the one we were staring at last year before the season began.

[Gugny]

 

for your eyes only. although I'm sure there are others who are crying about the schedule being so brutal.

 

 

there are no they "should" win games anymore then there are they "shouldn't" win games.

 

 

.... yup, he's the Betsy Ross of TBD preparing the white flag of surrender.....same driveler trashing Kim Pegula.....so consider the source '73....Happy 4th bro............

 

Let's get something clear at this juncture. IT'S A !@#$ING GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

There is no "surrendering." There are no "warriors," or "heroes."

 

Football is a game.

 

Furthermore, you don't know Kim Pegula and she certainly doesn't give two craps about you. So stop pretending that you're "offended" because I called her a gold digger.

 

It's a game. That's it.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

I don't think it is really "crying" as you put it my friend, but more of an observation. People correlating teams' previous year success with those whom we are facing this year. Overall win % of teams we faced last year versus this year based on last year. Looking at the schedule that fell upon us for 2017 it does look harder than the one we were staring at last year before the season began.

....take it closer to home...Moo's 2004 club finished at 9-7, failing to break the playoff schneid losing to Steelers' 3rd stringers.....10-6 and they're IN....2005 prognostications including strength of schedule had pundits chirping about "up and coming......maybe SB contender....yada yada.....".....and the bottom fell out at 5-11......you never know IMO............

[Dorkington]

90% likely we'll go 0-2 vs the Patriots, though, so at least that part's true.

[Gugny]

....take it closer to home...Moo's 2004 club finished at 9-7, failing to break the playoff schneid losing to Steelers' 3rd stringers.....10-6 and they're IN....2005 prognostications including strength of schedule had pundits chirping about "up and coming......maybe SB contender....yada yada.....".....and the bottom fell out at 5-11......you never know IMO............

 

Of course you never know. That's why they play the games. But anyone giving this schedule an honest look ... and giving the Bills an honest look (who's left, who's arrived, who's stayed, rookie HC, etc.) ... if being rational, would deduce that it will not be an easy feat - nor will it be likely - for the Bills to go above .500 this year.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

I don't think it is really "crying" as you put it my friend, but more of an observation. People correlating teams' previous year success with those whom we are facing this year. Overall win % of teams we faced last year versus this year based on last year. Looking at the schedule that fell upon us for 2017 it does look harder than the one we were staring at last year before the season began.

 

other than the cheaters, no team can really be determined how they succeed based on previous seasons, imo.

 

 

as for the crying, yeah, more like fear for some that look at it and say " we ain't winning any of those games, what a brutal schedule".

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let's get something clear at this juncture. IT'S A !@#$ING GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

There is no "surrendering." There are no "warriors," or "heroes."

 

Football is a game.

 

Furthermore, you don't know Kim Pegula and she certainly doesn't give two craps about you. So stop pretending that you're "offended" because I called her a gold digger.

 

It's a game. That's it.

 

it is a game, an unpredictable game, that's it.

[BarleyNY]

One must always remember, "it's hard to win in the NFL!"

Exactly. Every year has a difficult schedule for every team. There is a difference in the relative difficulty of teams' schedules, but those are fluid and not always easily quantifiable with statistics. Short and long term injuries and suspensions to key players on your own team as well as your opponents is huge. Catching the Pats once without Brady and instead facing an injured 3rd string QB sure made a difference in that one game last season. Bye weeks, off night games, order of games, weather, etc. all impact the real difficulty levels of games. So does the interplay of all of the above. You can take a stab at how difficult a schedule will be, but four weeks into a season it'll look very different. And four weeks later it'll look different again.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...ODD thing is even if you do win, NOTHING is guaranteed....Pats were DOOMED in 2008 when Brady went down for season.....yet Matt Cassell leads them to 11-5 and they MISSED the playoffs?....who had THAT in their crystal ball??............

[JM2009]

Every NFL schedule , every year is tough. There are no, and never will be any gimmie games from any team.The difference between winning and losing most games usually comes down to a few plays.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

That's not analytics, that's a useless bunch of elementary plots that wouldn't conclude any thing... ever.

 

Strength of schedule and it's impact on a given team must be individualized and nomrmalized so it's relative.

 

Strength of schedule based on prior results if impacting in any way, would surely impact the strong, weak and marginal teams quite differently- if at all.

[oldmanfan]

I think you're nuts. This schedule is brutal. They're starting the year 0-2 with NE games. We can't count on AJ Green leaving the game in the 1st again when we play CIN. Not only are we playing the defending champions twice, but we're also playing the runner up. Every single team, except the Jets, has a better QB than we do.

 

I look at this schedule and the only two "should win," games are against the Jets.

 

I'ts brutal.

Why let actual data wreck your opinion?

[Paul Costa]

Every NFL schedule , every year is tough. There are no, and never will be any gimmie games from any team.The difference between winning and losing most games usually comes down to a few plays.

We beat Pats without Brady last year. Shut them out in fact. Who knows who will be playing week 13 in Buffalo. To say they will be 0-2 against the Pats seems likely it's why they play the games.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

90% likely we'll go 0-2 vs the Patriots, though, so at least that part's true.

...oh fer 2 and 4 and oh against the rest of the AFCE equates to a fighting playoff chance IMO....then again getting swept by the Jesters last year....you fill in the blanks............

[boyst]

We play some tough teams but to think we habe a chance against a team like Atlanta or ne or Denver is tough. As is both are very good teams.