Negativity v Reality

[Marty McFly]

I really think it all comes down to our defense and who spells Shady at RB.

 

A better defense last season and we have a better record with a WC shot.

 

Offense should see an improvement if we get a capable #2 rb. Tyrod should be better and with zay jones and andre holmes we wont be as bad at Wr as last year if Watkins stays out again.

[Charlottebillsfan2]

I look at it this way. Bills have a .500 team roster. We have another brand new coaching staff that will be implementing new playbooks schemes ect. Never an easy task your first season especially with a question mark at QB.

 

Then you look at the reality of the schedule. Honestly how many games right now do you think we will be favorites according to vegas? 2 against the jets, maybe 1 against chargers, perhaps panthers and saints). I just don't see this team getting over 6 wins. I think were still looking at a third place finish in our division and no way you make the playoffs sitting third in the AFC east.

 

Jets

At Panthers

Broncos

at Falcons

At Bengals

Tampa bay

Raiders

at Jets

Saints

at Chargers

at KC

Patriots

Colts

Dolphins

Patriots

Dolphins

[vorpma]

I agree with the OP, and I guess you do too. There's a big difference between 5 wins, which I agree it seems many people here think is the best the Bills could do, and 7 wins, your prediction.

 

I'm a big believer that there's pretty much no difference between most of the teams between 10-6 and 6-10. A couple of bad bounces or calls, a couple of key injuries, a couple of mistakes at the wrong time easily make the difference between 10-6 and 6-10. Those are essentially .500 teams. But when you win 5 or fewer, you're bad. I have trouble seeing the Bills as bad this season, unless they get hit with a ton of injuries or the coaches are as bad or worse than last season.

As I look back at Rex's two seasons in Buffalo, I've concluded that he's a worse a coach than I thought when the Bills hired him. When he's hired, I was unhappy, but I still believed in his defensive magic touch and in his enthusiasm, thinking those two things might make the Bills truly competitive. Instead, he demonstrated that there is no magic touch, that his teams seriously lacked discipline and technical excellence, and the players didn't relate to his shtick. In short, I think the Bills had coaching that was WAY below average, and the Bills talent got them into .500 territory.

 

Although it's possible, I think it's unlikely the Bills' coaching could be worse this season, which is what would be necessary to drop to 5 wins. The probability is that the coaching will be better, so I'm looking for another season in the .500 range. What would hold them back would be if McDermott makes more than his share of rookie mistakes. If he catches on fast to the head coaching game, the Bills will be fine.

[Shaw66]

Word from OTA's and minicamp is that Darby has seriously regressed and there are rumblings that Seymour could start opposite the rookie White. They will give him a shot in camp. He is a better fit for this defensive scheme. And Poyer is terrible. You are going to be wishing we had Aaron Williams back there. The defense will be slightly improved just because the line will do much better in a 4-3 but the defensive back situation is certainly not ideal.

I haven't seen anything about Darby in OTAs, and I doubt there was much of anything definitive out there. Still, I'll take you at your word, as well as the other comment about Darby regressing. Still, my view about Darby is this: (1) He has great quickness and can stay tight with receivers. (2) He learned to find the ball and make a play on it pretty well. He couldn't do it in the beginning of his rookie season, but was much better by the end. (3) It's a new defense that will play more zone, apparently. That may waste some of his best skills.

 

I don't know much about Poyer. Williams had a good season but never was a star - I'm confident Hyde will be as good as Williams.

 

As for the defensive backfield situation in general, it's all about the quality of the coaching - do they have a coverage scheme that works and can they get their players to play it. Especially in a zone, it's much less about special physical skills and more about knowing your job and doing it.

 

I have no idea whether the defense will actually be good. My point really is that I'm not worried about whether there's enough talent back there. The Bills' talent is as good as most teams in the league, with White, Seymour and Darby, Hyde and whoever.

I look at it this way. Bills have a .500 team roster. We have another brand new coaching staff that will be implementing new playbooks schemes ect. Never an easy task your first season especially with a question mark at QB.

 

Then you look at the reality of the schedule. Honestly how many games right now do you think we will be favorites according to vegas? 2 against the jets, maybe 1 against chargers, perhaps panthers and saints). I just don't see this team getting over 6 wins. I think were still looking at a third place finish in our division and no way you make the playoffs sitting third in the AFC east.

 

Jets

At Panthers

Broncos

at Falcons

At Bengals

Tampa bay

Raiders

at Jets

Saints

at Chargers

at KC

Patriots

Colts

Dolphins

Patriots

Dolphins

And I sort of agree with this. It is a .500 roster, but it's only .500 because the QB position is so important. With a certifiably good QB, it's better than .500.

 

It's about coaching. The good news is that it won't be hard for the coaches to be better than Rex. The bad news is it's a rookie HC and the schemes are changing. Which also suggests to me that .500 is what to expect.

 

As for the schedule, I spent 0 time thinking about the schedule. EVERY game is hard, EVERY season. And it's more or less impossible to determine of the strength of the schedule. Every year some teams surprise you, and there's no way to know which ones will be surprises. And I mean surprisingly good OR surprisingly bad. Panthers, Broncos, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Dolphins, Colts, Bucs, Chargers all have the potential to be good or bad in 2017. That's ten games on the Bills schedule, and add two Jets games. So that's 12 winnable games, and that doesn't account for the possibility that the Bills themselves might be good, in which case Pats, Raiders, Falcons are winnable also. There are probably only four or five teams that we can say with a certainty will be bad in 2017.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Specifically re: the defensive backs, I don't think we have a shutdown corner or probably even a top 10 CB, but what I like is that we have a really solid CB1-3 (maybe even CB4 because McDermott seems to like Johnson), which is crucial given that teams will have 3 WRs out there most of the time. Hyde seems like a big piece of the puzzle. I'm not sold on Poyer, but am open to giving him a shot. Overall, the defensive backfield should not be what holds us back. It would more likely be linebacker scheme fit and defensive line depth, unless Poyer is not who McDermott seems to think he is.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Rex came in and screwed the team up yet managed to finish 9-7 8 - 8 his 1st season and continued messing up the 2nd season.

 

Rex less has to = more

Bills we will be favorite - 4

 

BTW you missed an @ on one MIA game

Edited June 26, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan

[John from Riverside]

I really think it all comes down to our defense and who spells Shady at RB.

 

A better defense last season and we have a better record with a WC shot.

 

Offense should see an improvement if we get a capable #2 rb. Tyrod should be better and with zay jones and andre holmes we wont be as bad at Wr as last year if Watkins stays out again.

A better defense and I dont think we lose either of the miami games.....who was the team that eeked into the playoffs instead of us

Specifically re: the defensive backs, I don't think we have a shutdown corner or probably even a top 10 CB, but what I like is that we have a really solid CB1-3 (maybe even CB4 because McDermott seems to like Johnson), which is crucial given that teams will have 3 WRs out there most of the time. Hyde seems like a big piece of the puzzle. I'm not sold on Poyer, but am open to giving him a shot. Overall, the defensive backfield should not be what holds us back. It would more likely be linebacker scheme fit and defensive line depth, unless Poyer is not who McDermott seems to think he is.

Its important to note that the zone D McD employs does not require shut down corners.....

 

I actually feel that while we dont have pro bowlers at corner we do have good corners and quite a few of them

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Negativity

* The Bills have a terrible roster (legacy of Whaley et al) and will win 3-4 games.

* The Bills don't have a NFL quarterback.

* Now that Beane and McD are Bills, they're losers until proven otherwise

* All the players who were injured in the past (Sammy, etc) are likely to get injured again this year

 

Reality

* The Bills roster has a number of strengths and weaknesses - akin to the average NFL team.

* Tyrod has good legs but lacks elite passing skills

* The coaching staff seems strong enough on paper but remains an unknown until games are played.

* The new personnel staff seems to be well-qualified but hasn't done much yet and it's way too early to rate them

* This season - like any NFL season - will depend to a large extent on injuries and none of us knows who will get hurt this year or for how long.

Nice post! Thought I'd add the optimistic.

 

Optimistic

* Bills roster is actually pretty talented and has been poorly coached....technique, discipline etc. especially on defense

* TT takes a step forward

* The staff and admin come from wining organizations and don't tolerate lack of production

* We have a relatively healthy season and Watkins has a big breakout season.

[Scott7975]

I think they have a top 10 corner in Darby, and the pair of corners the Bills have may be better than the pair three years ago. Everyone says the Bills are in trouble in safety, and I really don't get that. Micah Hyde is a seriously good player, and Poyer has nice experience. Bills' safeties weren't all that great back then - Aaron Williams and who? Plus, as the OP points out, the strength of the team is the line, and the defensive line is now going to go back to it's strength - playing aggressively and getting into the backfield. Williams may be old, and we'll see what he has left. Dareus and Hughes should thrive, and now we'll get to see what Lawson has.

 

Bottom line, it's easy to see this as a top 10 defense, if the defensive coaching measures up.

Williams and Searcy made a pretty good duo IMO. Drop off was pretty big after them two.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

While it's no surprise the local media is completely negative on Bills playoff chances, I am surprised at the widespread belief that this team is floating in the area of a 5 win season. Yes of course the QB is vitally important and remains a question mark. But this QB has produced solid if not spectacular results, and if his offense can produce an average of 26 points per game (as it did last year), I will take it - right now.

 

But leaving the QB issue aside, most agree that successful NFL teams are built from the inside out ie strong offensive & defensive lines. Any neutral observer would agree that the O & D lines of the Bills are their strength. Both lines are talented, experienced and proven. That's huge in the NFL. Sprinkle in some great playmakers like McCoy and Watkins and you have a recipe for NFL success.

 

It was the defense that was the main problem last year. I don't believe the talent level on defense is any less than what Schwartz had in 2014 when our defense was great. Ryan's game management and his defensive schemes were abysmal, and McDermott doesn't need to be a defensive genius to produce far better result. Good defense coupled with offensive production even slightly better than last year can produce a 10 or 11 win season. Last years win total of 7 would have been much higher with a decent defense.

Some other folks got areas of this, if you look objectively, here is what you have:

- a 7-9 team, coached in 2016 by a man who some considered, not me, a legitimate NFL coach with some history of success

- loss of a well graded cornerback

- loss of a well regarded #2 WR

- a new coach without a single win to his name at any level as a head coach

- a rookie GM

- an organization that is easily characterized as turbulent after the revolving door of the past few years

- completely new offense and new defense, which the current players may or may not succeed in.

 

 

While it can be easily shrugged off that none of this means anything, if you objectively take a guess on whether it's a winning year or losing year, all the uncertainty and history of these types of reboots favor the later

[ddaryl]

I don't see the bills finishing at the bottom unless that is their goal. I see no reason why this team cannot compete for a wildcard if the coaching is anything for us to get excited about.

 

Any new coach heading for greatness should be able to take an average bunch and make them a playoff contender showing signs of improvement as the season wears on

 

I expect McDermott and Co. to be able to muster up 9 wins myself.

Edited June 26, 2017 by ddaryl

[Shaw66]

Williams and Searcy made a pretty good duo IMO. Drop off was pretty big after them two.

Right, pretty good. Not great. And it shouldn't be hard to be that good again.

[chris heff]

Rex came in and screwed the team up yet managed to finish 9-7 his 1st season and continued messing up the 2nd season.

 

Rex less has to = moreBills we will be favorite - 4

 

BTW you missed an @ on one MIA game

Ryan's record is 8-8 and 7-9 in his two seasons. That being said I think competent coaching could result in three more wins than the last two years.

[Peevo]

23-0

 

Jesus Christ.

[TPS]

Given the uncertainty of a new regime, it's very difficult to predict what will happen this year--they could win 5, or they could win 10, and probably somewhere between...

[Figster]

I haven't seen anything about Darby in OTAs, and I doubt there was much of anything definitive out there. Still, I'll take you at your word, as well as the other comment about Darby regressing. Still, my view about Darby is this: (1) He has great quickness and can stay tight with receivers. (2) He learned to find the ball and make a play on it pretty well. He couldn't do it in the beginning of his rookie season, but was much better by the end. (3) It's a new defense that will play more zone, apparently. That may waste some of his best skills.

 

I don't know much about Poyer. Williams had a good season but never was a star - I'm confident Hyde will be as good as Williams.

 

As for the defensive backfield situation in general, it's all about the quality of the coaching - do they have a coverage scheme that works and can they get their players to play it. Especially in a zone, it's much less about special physical skills and more about knowing your job and doing it.

 

I have no idea whether the defense will actually be good. My point really is that I'm not worried about whether there's enough talent back there. The Bills' talent is as good as most teams in the league, with White, Seymour and Darby, Hyde and whoever.

And I sort of agree with this. It is a .500 roster, but it's only .500 because the QB position is so important. With a certifiably good QB, it's better than .500.

 

It's about coaching. The good news is that it won't be hard for the coaches to be better than Rex. The bad news is it's a rookie HC and the schemes are changing. Which also suggests to me that .500 is what to expect.

 

As for the schedule, I spent 0 time thinking about the schedule. EVERY game is hard, EVERY season. And it's more or less impossible to determine of the strength of the schedule. Every year some teams surprise you, and there's no way to know which ones will be surprises. And I mean surprisingly good OR surprisingly bad. Panthers, Broncos, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Dolphins, Colts, Bucs, Chargers all have the potential to be good or bad in 2017. That's ten games on the Bills schedule, and add two Jets games. So that's 12 winnable games, and that doesn't account for the possibility that the Bills themselves might be good, in which case Pats, Raiders, Falcons are winnable also. There are probably only four or five teams that we can say with a certainty will be bad in 2017.

Taylor was able to hold the team right at or just a little above the 500 mark without much help from the D so its hard for me to see the Bills losing ground in that regard despite the tough schedule and new HC/coaching staff in my humble opinion Shaw.

 

I agree with your comment on not much separation between 10 - 6 and 6 - 10 teams.

 

Myself personally, I"m predicting a 9 - 7, 10 - 6 season with Sammy , Shady and T Mobile leading the charge/ wildcard

Edited June 26, 2017 by Figster

[BarleyNY]

While it's no surprise the local media is completely negative on Bills playoff chances, I am surprised at the widespread belief that this team is floating in the area of a 5 win season. Yes of course the QB is vitally important and remains a question mark. But this QB has produced solid if not spectacular results, and if his offense can produce an average of 26 points per game (as it did last year), I will take it - right now.

But leaving the QB issue aside, most agree that successful NFL teams are built from the inside out ie strong offensive & defensive lines. Any neutral observer would agree that the O & D lines of the Bills are their strength. Both lines are talented, experienced and proven. That's huge in the NFL. Sprinkle in some great playmakers like McCoy and Watkins and you have a recipe for NFL success.

It was the defense that was the main problem last year. I don't believe the talent level on defense is any less than what Schwartz had in 2014 when our defense was great. Ryan's game management and his defensive schemes were abysmal, and McDermott doesn't need to be a defensive genius to produce far better result. Good defense coupled with offensive production even slightly better than last year can produce a 10 or 11 win season. Last years win total of 7 would have been much higher with a decent defense.

I disagree with a number of your points.

- I don't see many around here calling for a 5 win season as you state. Most are expecting .500-ish.

- The Bills DL should be a strength and so should most of their line. RT is a big sore spot though. Hopefully we've got a rookie who comes on strong and completes that unit.

- I do agree that the defense should improve markedly due to McD and his scheme. It might take time for the players to get comfortable with it though.

- The best teams are built around the QB. You can't leave that out of any equation. Strong lines and supporting talent is essential, but nothing in the NFL equals an elite QB.

 

I'd guess the Bills record at 7-9 or 8-8. Sure, things could really come together in a hurry or something (injuries) could derail the season, but I have the center of their bell curve at that 7 to 8 win mark. Vegas has them at 6 wins. That's as unbiased as you get, so maybe I'm just a little optimistic. I have a tough time with an 11 win season. Even 9 or 10 wins would require a lot to break their way. You never know though. Sometimes things click and come together. One game at a time, one play at a time.

Edited June 26, 2017 by BarleyNY

[hondo in seattle]

The Bills have been, under the Pegulas, and continue to be, an average NFL team. 8-8 type.

 

The realist in me thinks you are correct.

 

The optimist in me hopes that McD emerges as a coaching superstar. And under his talented tutelage, many of our players perform better than they've ever performed before. And thus the drought ends!

Nice post! Thought I'd add the optimistic.

 

Optimistic

* Bills roster is actually pretty talented and has been poorly coached....technique, discipline etc. especially on defense

* TT takes a step forward

* The staff and admin come from wining organizations and don't tolerate lack of production

* We have a relatively healthy season and Watkins has a big breakout season.

 

This is exactly what I hope for. And perpetual hope is what fuels my fandom.

Edited June 26, 2017 by hondo in seattle

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Agree, but I will stick with 7-9 until proven otherwise. We really needed another good, veteran WR. MG was a big loss to the running game. But the defense should be better this season.

....I'd go 8-8....the last real semblance of positive press was in 2004 when Moo's club went 9-7, unable to beat the 3rd string Steelers to end the playoff schneid at 10-6.....they were tabbed as "up and coming" and forecasts about a good 2005......so they fell off the earth at 5-11 and the urinalists reverted back to perennial negativity....BUT....the same bunch who cheered the Wrecks hire (COUGH)..

[BuffaloBaumer]

When Sammy, Kyle and Shady are all gone next year, reality is really going to kick in badly. Hopefully there is a legit qb coming out in 2019 as I have a feeling we will be the Jets....