Negativity v Reality

[WIDE LEFT]

While it's no surprise the local media is completely negative on Bills playoff chances, I am surprised at the widespread belief that this team is floating in the area of a 5 win season. Yes of course the QB is vitally important and remains a question mark. But this QB has produced solid if not spectacular results, and if his offense can produce an average of 26 points per game (as it did last year), I will take it - right now.

 

But leaving the QB issue aside, most agree that successful NFL teams are built from the inside out ie strong offensive & defensive lines. Any neutral observer would agree that the O & D lines of the Bills are their strength. Both lines are talented, experienced and proven. That's huge in the NFL. Sprinkle in some great playmakers like McCoy and Watkins and you have a recipe for NFL success.

 

It was the defense that was the main problem last year. I don't believe the talent level on defense is any less than what Schwartz had in 2014 when our defense was great. Ryan's game management and his defensive schemes were abysmal, and McDermott doesn't need to be a defensive genius to produce far better result. Good defense coupled with offensive production even slightly better than last year can produce a 10 or 11 win season. Last years win total of 7 would have been much higher with a decent defense.

[JM2009]

Agree, but I will stick with 7-9 until proven otherwise. We really needed another good, veteran WR. MG was a big loss to the running game. But the defense should be better this season.

[GunnerBill]

I don't believe the talent level on defense is any less than what Schwartz had in 2014 when our defense was great. Ryan's game management and his defensive schemes were abysmal, and McDermott doesn't need to be a defensive genius to produce far better result. Good defense coupled with offensive production even slightly better than last year can produce a 10 or 11 win season. Last years win total of 7 would have been much higher with a decent defense.

 

I hope you are right, but I don't share your belief. We had a premier pass rushing defensive end, a 3 years young Kyle Williams, a top 10 corner and an established pair at safety. The linebackers were a question going into that year and played well and are a question at this stage this year and who knows.

[Shaw66]

Agree, but I will stick with 7-9 until proven otherwise. We really needed another good, veteran WR. MG was a big loss to the running game. But the defense should be better this season.

I agree with the OP, and I guess you do too. There's a big difference between 5 wins, which I agree it seems many people here think is the best the Bills could do, and 7 wins, your prediction.

 

I'm a big believer that there's pretty much no difference between most of the teams between 10-6 and 6-10. A couple of bad bounces or calls, a couple of key injuries, a couple of mistakes at the wrong time easily make the difference between 10-6 and 6-10. Those are essentially .500 teams. But when you win 5 or fewer, you're bad. I have trouble seeing the Bills as bad this season, unless they get hit with a ton of injuries or the coaches are as bad or worse than last season.

As I look back at Rex's two seasons in Buffalo, I've concluded that he's a worse a coach than I thought when the Bills hired him. When he's hired, I was unhappy, but I still believed in his defensive magic touch and in his enthusiasm, thinking those two things might make the Bills truly competitive. Instead, he demonstrated that there is no magic touch, that his teams seriously lacked discipline and technical excellence, and the players didn't relate to his shtick. In short, I think the Bills had coaching that was WAY below average, and the Bills talent got them into .500 territory.

 

Although it's possible, I think it's unlikely the Bills' coaching could be worse this season, which is what would be necessary to drop to 5 wins. The probability is that the coaching will be better, so I'm looking for another season in the .500 range. What would hold them back would be if McDermott makes more than his share of rookie mistakes. If he catches on fast to the head coaching game, the Bills will be fine.

[JM2009]

I agree with the OP, and I guess you do too. There's a big difference between 5 wins, which I agree it seems many people here think is the best the Bills could do, and 7 wins, your prediction.

 

I'm a big believer that there's pretty much no difference between most of the teams between 10-6 and 6-10. A couple of bad bounces or calls, a couple of key injuries, a couple of mistakes at the wrong time easily make the difference between 10-6 and 6-10. Those are essentially .500 teams. But when you win 5 or fewer, you're bad. I have trouble seeing the Bills as bad this season, unless they get hit with a ton of injuries or the coaches are as bad or worse than last season.

As I look back at Rex's two seasons in Buffalo, I've concluded that he's a worse a coach than I thought when the Bills hired him. When he's hired, I was unhappy, but I still believed in his defensive magic touch and in his enthusiasm, thinking those two things might make the Bills truly competitive. Instead, he demonstrated that there is no magic touch, that his teams seriously lacked discipline and technical excellence, and the players didn't relate to his shtick. In short, I think the Bills had coaching that was WAY below average, and the Bills talent got them into .500 territory.

 

Although it's possible, I think it's unlikely the Bills' coaching could be worse this season, which is what would be necessary to drop to 5 wins. The probability is that the coaching will be better, so I'm looking for another season in the .500 range. What would hold them back would be if McDermott makes more than his share of rookie mistakes. If he catches on fast to the head coaching game, the Bills will be fine.

All good points.

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

I will say that I was very optimistic when Rex came in. My thinking was that with the talent we had on the defensive side of the ball, Rex could improve what we had and we would be very hard to score on. Obviously, I was wrong.

 

That being said, I am very optimistic about McCoach and this team. I am really liking the approach to the draft, free agency and an overall seriousness about winning. I won't predict # of wins, as no one really can. But, if we stay healthy and everybody works their asses off, we can definitely challenge the Patriots for the East crown. You gotta believe. This can be our year that the tide shifts back. I think back to 1988. That was the pivotal year that got us on our way. All the pieces were there. I think we're in the same position now.

[Shaw66]

 

I hope you are right, but I don't share your belief. We had a premier pass rushing defensive end, a 3 years young Kyle Williams, a top 10 corner and an established pair at safety. The linebackers were a question going into that year and played well and are a question at this stage this year and who knows.

I think they have a top 10 corner in Darby, and the pair of corners the Bills have may be better than the pair three years ago. Everyone says the Bills are in trouble in safety, and I really don't get that. Micah Hyde is a seriously good player, and Poyer has nice experience. Bills' safeties weren't all that great back then - Aaron Williams and who? Plus, as the OP points out, the strength of the team is the line, and the defensive line is now going to go back to it's strength - playing aggressively and getting into the backfield. Williams may be old, and we'll see what he has left. Dareus and Hughes should thrive, and now we'll get to see what Lawson has.

 

Bottom line, it's easy to see this as a top 10 defense, if the defensive coaching measures up.

[Wayne Cubed]

 

I hope you are right, but I don't share your belief. We had a premier pass rushing defensive end, a 3 years young Kyle Williams, a top 10 corner and an established pair at safety. The linebackers were a question going into that year and played well and are a question at this stage this year and who knows.

 

Yea have to agree with that, Mario Williams was first team All Pro in 2014. Where's that talent at DE this year?

[JM2009]

 

Yea have to agree with that, Mario Williams was first team All Pro in 2014. Where's that talent at DE this year?

Have to hope Lawson is as advertised.

[Wayne Cubed]

Have to hope Lawson is as advertised.

 

It's nice that you are optimistic but I highly doubt Lawson will be at M. Williams level in 2014. I'm sorry but i don't think he will be a first team All Pro in 2017. And therefore to the OPs point the talent is less.

[hondo in seattle]

Negativity

* The Bills have a terrible roster (legacy of Whaley et al) and will win 3-4 games.

* The Bills don't have a NFL quarterback.

* Now that Beane and McD are Bills, they're losers until proven otherwise

* All the players who were injured in the past (Sammy, etc) are likely to get injured again this year

 

Reality

* The Bills roster has a number of strengths and weaknesses - akin to the average NFL team.

* Tyrod has good legs but lacks elite passing skills

* The coaching staff seems strong enough on paper but remains an unknown until games are played.

* The new personnel staff seems to be well-qualified but hasn't done much yet and it's way too early to rate them

* This season - like any NFL season - will depend to a large extent on injuries and none of us knows who will get hurt this year or for how long.

[JM2009]

Negativity

* The Bills have a terrible roster (legacy of Whaley et al) and will win 3-4 games.

* The Bills don't have a NFL quarterback.

* Now that Beane and McD are Bills, they're losers until proven otherwise

* All the players who were injured in the past (Sammy, etc) are likely to get injured again this year

 

Reality

* The Bills roster has a number of strengths and weaknesses - akin to the average NFL team.

* Tyrod has good legs but lacks elite passing skills

* The coaching staff seems strong enough on paper but remains an unknown until games are played.

* The new personnel staff seems to be well-qualified but hasn't done much yet and it's way too early to rate them

* This season - like any NFL season - will depend to a large extent on injuries and none of us knows who will get hurt this year or for how long.

The Bills have been, under the Pegulas, and continue to be, an average NFL team. 8-8 type.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Negativity

* The Bills have a terrible roster (legacy of Whaley et al) and will win 3-4 games.

* The Bills don't have a NFL quarterback.

* Now that Beane and McD are Bills, they're losers until proven otherwise

* All the players who were injured in the past (Sammy, etc) are likely to get injured again this year

 

Reality

* The Bills roster has a number of strengths and weaknesses - akin to the average NFL team.

* Tyrod has good legs but lacks elite passing skills

* The coaching staff seems strong enough on paper but remains an unknown until games are played.

* The new personnel staff seems to be well-qualified but hasn't done much yet and it's way too early to rate them

* This season - like any NFL season - will depend to a large extent on injuries and none of us knows who will get hurt this year or for how long.

^ That

[GunnerBill]

I think they have a top 10 corner in Darby, and the pair of corners the Bills have may be better than the pair three years ago. Everyone says the Bills are in trouble in safety, and I really don't get that. Micah Hyde is a seriously good player, and Poyer has nice experience. Bills' safeties weren't all that great back then - Aaron Williams and who? Plus, as the OP points out, the strength of the team is the line, and the defensive line is now going to go back to it's strength - playing aggressively and getting into the backfield. Williams may be old, and we'll see what he has left. Dareus and Hughes should thrive, and now we'll get to see what Lawson has.

 

Bottom line, it's easy to see this as a top 10 defense, if the defensive coaching measures up.

 

Darby is not a top 10 corner. Not even close. He had a good rookie year and a real sophomore slump. I like the kid and I like the Tre pick but neither are replacing the talent that we lost in Gilmore in 2017... as unpopular as I know Gilmore is in these parts. Aaron Williams and D'Norris Searcy were at least established coming into 2014... they had been on the team they knew their teammates they were not quite starting from scratch and I am a Micah Hyde fan - loved that pickup.

 

I am as big a Shaq fan as anyone on this board as well.... but 2017 Shaq is not going to be 2014 Mario. He just isn't. Not the same type of player anyway and Mario was in that period 2012-2014 (his first 3 years on the Bills) 3rd in the league behind only JJ Watt and Justin Houston in sack production. He was absolutely a premier defensive end in the league and in his prime.

 

I think this D will get better..... but in my opinion I see it somewhere 9th-14th. Expecting it to catapult back to near the top of the league is a reach for me.

[Nanker]

The Bills control their own destiny.

Just win and our questions will be answered.

[jr1]

23-0

[K D]

I think they have a top 10 corner in Darby, and the pair of corners the Bills have may be better than the pair three years ago. Everyone says the Bills are in trouble in safety, and I really don't get that. Micah Hyde is a seriously good player, and Poyer has nice experience. Bills' safeties weren't all that great back then - Aaron Williams and who? Plus, as the OP points out, the strength of the team is the line, and the defensive line is now going to go back to it's strength - playing aggressively and getting into the backfield. Williams may be old, and we'll see what he has left. Dareus and Hughes should thrive, and now we'll get to see what Lawson has.

 

Bottom line, it's easy to see this as a top 10 defense, if the defensive coaching measures up.

Word from OTA's and minicamp is that Darby has seriously regressed and there are rumblings that Seymour could start opposite the rookie White. They will give him a shot in camp. He is a better fit for this defensive scheme. And Poyer is terrible. You are going to be wishing we had Aaron Williams back there. The defense will be slightly improved just because the line will do much better in a 4-3 but the defensive back situation is certainly not ideal.

[Chandler#81]

But leaving the QB issue aside, most agree that successful NFL teams are built from the inside out ie strong offensive & defensive lines. Any neutral observer would agree that the O & D lines of the Bills are their strength. Both lines are talented, experienced and proven. That's huge in the NFL. Sprinkle in some great playmakers like McCoy and Watkins and you have a recipe for NFL success.

 

 

 

There's another football analogy that says teams have be strong down the middle -as in Safety, MLB, DT's, C/G's, QB RB. There's a lot of truth to this one and IMO, we stack up pretty well. Unknowns are how well Hyde acclimates, WHO is even going to be MLB and is there the talent most of us think there is and Tyrod -who can certainly move the chains, if unconventionally.

 

Barring injury, I see a competitive team here though I expect new coach syndrome (errors/miscommunication) will take its toll in season 1.

[John from Riverside]

Im still pretty optomistic about a wild card this season

 

Some things have to go right.....but what is the use of using energy on believing they WONT go right

 

- I think there is a hidden tiger that is this defense....RR came in and screwed it up.....the foundation players of the defense need to play like foundation players......high draft picks need to prove they were worth the selection.....

 

- We need to solidify RT......

 

- Tyrod Taylor needs to show that he can run his former OC' offense

 

- Certain players on offense need to stay healthy

 

We can win.....

[quinnearlysghost88]

23-0

Does this include all of the preseason games and the pro bowl? If so, I'm on board.