Most likely TANK theory I've heard thus far...

[ALF]

If the Bills want a QB high in the next draft , it'll cost them at least 3 first rd picks. Seems like McD has a plan after passing on Mahomes and Watson and trading down for a extra 1st.

[K D]

This is BS. No team has ever gone from cellar dweller to Super Bowl winner in a single season for the very simple reason that if a team jettisons its talent in order to tank, it will take years to rebuild it. That's especially true in the present NFL.

 

Use your head for something besides keeping your ears apart. A football team needs 53 players, not just a QB. A Super Bowl team needs real talent at numerous key positions and a lot of luck. There are only 7 rounds in the draft. About half of draft picks bust or fail to live up to expectations. The average career length for NFL players is just over 3 years IIRC, although that number was from a few years ago, so it may be a little longer. Then there's injuries and suspensions for rules violations. The salary cap imposes a limit on how much a team can spend in salaries in any given season. Rookie contracts for first rounders last for 5 years and for others only 4 years. Too many veteran players are not going to want to sign with a losing team if they can sign with a team with a realistic chance to make the Super Bowl -- and a team with recent playoff runs and repeated Super Bowl appearances constitutes a "realistic chance" as opposed to a team that went 0-16 the previous year, which is why Chris Hogan, Stephon Gilmore, and Mike Gillisless are all Patriots. Oh, and let's not forget the quality of scouting, drafting, and coaching.

 

Moreover, there's no guarantee that there's a franchise QB in any draft. In 2002, neither David Carr nor Joey Harrington were any good. In 2007, 2010, and 2013 none of the QBs were better than backups. In 2006, Jay Cutler was the best of a poor lot, although some considered him a franchise QB for a while.

 

Also remember:

 

• In the 2001 draft, Michael Vick was the #1 pick, but Drew Brees was the best QB, first pick in the 2nd round (or what would be the end of the first round today).
• In the 2004 draft, #1 pick Eli Manning was drafted and then traded to the Giants for #4 pick Phillip Rivers and a carload of draft picks. E Manning has won 2 Super Bowls with the Giants but since Rivers has only been there as a spectator, it's unlikely the streaky Manning would have done better.
• In the 2005 draft, while Alex Smith was the #1 pick, Aaron Rodgers was the best QB at #18.
• In the 2008 draft, Atlanta took Matt Ryan at #3 and Baltimore took Joe Flacco (who was Super Bowl MVP) at #18.
• Despite all the hoopla about Indy tanking to get Andrew Luck in 2012, the best QB to come out of the 2012 draft was third rounder Russell Wilson who has already won a Super Bowl. Luck has not matured significantly beyond what he was as a rookie/sophomore QB, and he might not be as good a QB today as Tannehill (#12) and Kirk Cousins (4th round) who have matured professionally.

The Bills have been bad for nearly 20 years because the FO has been far more interested in making profit than in winning football games, and no QB is going to rescue the team from that reality.

You are missing the point. When the team's stated and advertised goal is to only make the playoffs then what you get is a team that is barely good enough to maybe make the playoffs. Yes it takes some time to rebuild (not many years, look at the Falcons) but if you have a clear vision that we are building a SUPER BOWL team which starts with getting a SUPER BOWL CALIBER QUARTERBACK then you are all in on winning at all costs. We have not been building a Super Bowl team. We have been building a wild card playoff team. We don't have a quarterback so let's be as good as we can with what we have and that's not how you build a team. That's how you build a .500 team that competes but isn't good enough to win. And that's h you get stuck in limbo for 20 years

[frostbitmic]

I can see the Bills challenging the Miami Water Mammals for 2nd in the East and I don't see any evidence at all of attempting to tank.

 

The writer mentioned losing 3 of our top 4 WRs yet Zay Jones should be more than adequate to replace Woods and Holmes has to be better than Goodwin or Hunter. If Sammy can have a half dozen or so healthy games we're better at that position.

 

Losing Gilmore ? ... I always thought he was over rated, was a terrible tackler or a hurdle with his close eyes, lower head and shoulder style and took too many penalties. I think White will be just fine in that spot.

 

Losing Gillislee ? ... We have Williams, now in his 2nd year and we don't have to pay him 4.5 large a year. That's too expensive for a back up RB.

 

I do believe they were right that we'll be fighting for the #1 draft spot but it's because we have 3 first round picks to give up for it (2 in 2017, 1 in 2018) so we're in the running if we choose to be.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Interesting about clay getting cut. Would cost us 4.5 mil extra this year but opens a lot of space next year Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

14.5-9=?

 

I could see them move on from clay. He was even disappointing to the regime that wanted him it seemed. Good player that just disappears for multiple games at a time

Edited June 25, 2017 by Over 28 years of fanhood

[BarleyNY]

14.5-9=?

That's not how the cap works. Here are details:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/charles-clay-7893/

 

Short story:

2017: cut pre 6/1, cap hit goes up from $9M to $13.5M

2018: cut pre 6/1, cap hit stays even at $9M

2019: cut pre 6/1, cap hit goes down from $9M to $4.5M

 

It really doesn't pay to cut him before the end of his deal unless he can't be any help to the team. His salaries over the next 3 seasons are $4.5M each. He got a ton of up front cash and it's all a sunk cost now. Basically, as long as he's worth close to $4.5M a year, you keep him.

Edited June 25, 2017 by BarleyNY

[BUNCH OF MULARKEY]

What a bunch of mullarkey. Can anyone really imagine a team with coaches like McDermott (MMA fighter) and Waufle (a hard corp ex-Marine) rolling over and tanking for a whole season so we can get a draft pick? I can virtually guarantee that it is not in their DNA.

 

I also agree that Kyle and Shady would not be a part of a tank at this point in their careers...probably at no point in their careers.

Exactly. The only tank Mike "mad dog" Waufle is interested in is Sherman tanks that flank enemy positions.

I bet no one here has the gumption nor the intestinal fortitude to even suggest this to mad dog or butterbean junior.

He would rip your head off and crap down your neck. How dare you people live under the blanket of protection that he provides and the question the matter in which he provides it.

[PromoTheRobot]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2717015-five-nfl-teams-already-in-contention-for-2018-no-1-overall-draft-pick

 

Here is a link to the BR article that the linked one references. I've actually known Sobo (the BR writer) for over 10 years years. He knows football and he's a good guy. There's a reason he had the Bills 5th on the list of 5. Is anyone arguing with the other 4?

 

As for a tank, I don't see a full one in process for the Bills. It's more of a slow roll here this season. There wasn't a full scale tear down and the team is looking to be competitive, but the moves made were all long term. With the contracts on the books a full scale teardown wasn't even possible. Even KW was kept. A player that old and in his last season certainly would be gone in a tank.

 

But about that slow roll. I don't see how the 2017 Bills are going to be better than the 2016 Bills - and they certainly could be a little worse with the short term learning process of the scheme changes. This season is about establishing the system and finding out how our (young) existing players fit. The team should be competitive, but it'll likely lose more than it wins. It'll be worth it if they are in the right path.

Well, he mailed this article in.

[Chilly]

 

I think Decker is way better than Holmes and Streater. I get that is different from being the same type of player, but that's like saying a team doesn't want DeSean Jackson because they have Roscoe Parrish, assuming Jackson and Parrish are the same type.

I agree but Decker's health is the real issue

[mannc]

Tanking is not part of the plan. There is no reason this team can't compete for a playoff spot. The subtraction of the Ryan clowns alone is worth at least two wins. More importantly, McD is a new coach and he needs to immediately establish credibility and respect with the players. That's done by winning, not by tanking. He can't afford to go 2-14 or 3-13 and the vets on the team won't stand for it.

[artmalibu]

If the tank theory is based on not paying too much for some not so special receivers that my not make the team any better anyway is crazy.

 

With the cap space that is left its best to see what happens in camp, either unexpected under achievement or injury could make that 13.5 million very important.

[BarleyNY]

Well, he mailed this article in.

Other than the inclusion of the Bills as the 5th team, what other part of that article do you disagree with? The first part was spot on (including the Polian tanking stuff) and the first four teams on the list make a ton of sense. He probably picked the Bills as the fifth because the new regime kicked the can down the road this offseason. The Bills probably won't be top 5 bad, but they won't be above .500 good in 2017 either.

[NoSaint]

That's not how the cap works. Here are details:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/charles-clay-7893/

 

Short story:

2017: cut pre 6/1, cap hit goes up from $9M to $13.5M

2018: cut pre 6/1, cap hit stays even at $9M

2019: cut pre 6/1, cap hit goes down from $9M to $4.5M

 

It really doesn't pay to cut him before the end of his deal unless he can't be any help to the team. His salaries over the next 3 seasons are $4.5M each. He got a ton of up front cash and it's all a sunk cost now. Basically, as long as he's worth close to $4.5M a year, you keep him.

Yup-- when you front load the cash in a deal, and then restructure in year 2 that becomes a guy that you just keep

 

He received over 24m of a 5 year 38m deal in the first two years -- so why not keep him for the 3 year 13.5m total remaining contract at this point.

[mannc]

Other than the inclusion of the Bills as the 5th team, what other part of that article do you disagree with? The first part was spot on (including the Polian tanking stuff) and the first four teams on the list make a ton of sense. He probably picked the Bills as the fifth because the new regime kicked the can down the road this offseason. The Bills probably won't be top 5 bad, but they won't be above .500 good in 2017 either.

So you think they'll miss the Ryan brothers?

[NoSaint]

Other than the inclusion of the Bills as the 5th team, what other part of that article do you disagree with? The first part was spot on (including the Polian tanking stuff) and the first four teams on the list make a ton of sense. He probably picked the Bills as the fifth because the new regime kicked the can down the road this offseason. The Bills probably won't be top 5 bad, but they won't be above .500 good in 2017 either.

Yup- the premise wasn't great. 5 teams don't openly tank the way fans look at it to be included in a list like this.

 

But if he framed it as 5 teams unlikely to make the playoffs and not giving it everything they've got --- sure, there's an argument for us being on that fringe of the list

[KellyToughII]

You don't think Darnold is worth it? Bills fans would sell their souls to Satan himself for the chance to wear a Darnold jersey on Sundays for the next 10 to 15 years.

And for all we know he can be a complete bust and Satan gets free fodder. Let the college season play out

[mead107]

I can not see any argument for being on that list. (5teams) Why would you hire a new coach if any kind of tanking was planned.

Don't buy in on it.

No sane person can possibly think a new coach in the league would even think like that.

It's a team sport people.

Tanking to get a Brady like QB with the first pick has to be under a 1% chance. Brady was no first round pick.

Still call it bull crap.

[#34fan]

Not sure I support a tank starting week 1... However, If we're 1-6 after week 7, with OAK headed to town, I say do it up GOOD and PROPER.... That's not a tank, it's an investment in the future...

[Rocky Landing]

With the departure of Gilmore, Woods, Goodwin, Hunter and Gillislee, I can see how someone who doesn't follow the Bills would think we were tanking. But, a "national reporter" should have a little bit more insight than a casual observer.

 

It's all been said on this site, ad nauseam-- Gilmore's departure was all but a foregone conclusion. Woods wasn't worth the cost. Goodwin was fragile. Hunter wasn't versatile. We couldn't match Gillislee's offer. Etc, etc, etc...

And, they've all been replaced, with the exception of Gilly-- although, one could argue that our two fullbacks will replace his production.

 

The Jets are tanking. We are not.

Edited June 25, 2017 by Rocky Landing

[hondo in seattle]

 

This bleacher report piece is pre-training camp June space filler material with no substance for any serious consideration with regard to the Bills and their offseason moves where they have acquired players to make up for many of the losses to the roster. Next!

 

Agreed.

The draft was run by Whaley and his guys. They were certainly not in a position to think about intentionally tanking. And Beane has not been systematically 'deconstructing' the roster since his arrival. He hasn't been jettisoning high paid vets to make cap space for younger guys.

 

Silly article.

[Fingon]

The problem with tanking is that Rex is gone. The defense is almost guaranteed to be much better simply because they are returning to a 4-3.