New data shows Tyrod/the offense was better than you thought

[JM2009]

only stats I see as relevant are as follows:

 

1. Batch #1-7-9, 7-9, 7-9, 8-8, 8-8, 7-9........you get my drift

2. Batch #2- oh fer 17 and counting........

 

...individual stats mean squat (except to ME Brees).....break the schneid FIRST and THEN we can talk about HOW it happened.....THIS JUST IN: I am not rooting against TT being successful by ANY means....only a purebred azz who hope a kid fails to fulfill his NFL dream....let's say his stats were pedestrian or below at best with Shady rushing for 1,600 yds and a DE (pick one) recording 23 sacks, with the result being the SAME 7-9....now what?....I missed the TEAM concept memo I guess.........

All I know is a few, not you, brush of the poor defense and blame everything on TT. The offense did enough overall in 2016 to make the WC if the defense had performed better.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Appreciate the analysis but I don't know any posters who thought the defense wasn't an issue. Even the handful of "Rex guys" thought the defense sucked, just for different reasons.

 

Blaming the defense for TT's deficiencies is like blaming TT for the defense letting up 34 points. Inane on both sides.

My post blamed no one for anything, and didn't mention Tyrod whatsoever. What exactly are you on about?

[JM2009]

My post blamed no one for anything, and didn't mention Tyrod whatsoever. What exactly are you on about?

He's saying that a poor defense against the better teams doesn't matter. If the Bills give up over 30, TT should score 40 points. Unrealistic.

[Kirby Jackson]

Poll Wording makes all the difference

 

Is TT the "real" problem, or is TT the long term answer.

 

I am looking for discussions not pissing contests. Sure I may have strayed a few times, but one can only be called a hater or have an agenda so many times before it topples the scales.

 

TT is the best option we have

I wish we could see more from him and the team

 

There is nothing wrong with that sentiment. But being called a hater for it is not right.

 

Wins against playoff teams with equally bad defenses.

 

 

When TT can lead the Bills to victories over Tannehill in Mai, Fits in NYJ, A Smith in KC, Carr Oak, and NE I'll stop being so critical.

 

 

And please beating NE with a 3rd string rookie with a busted hand and only scoring 16 points is naught but a moral victory.

 

cheers

When you score 34 points, break a franchise record for yards and leave the field with the lead and a minute to go how can a reasonable person pin that loss on the QB? That's not logical.

 

I'm not picking on you but the people that think QB is the reason that they were 7-9 are so wrong. The offense played at a playoff level. The defense played at a 3 win level. The HC was awful as well. We need to stop using our emotions and start looking at the facts. The facts don't blame the guy that put up 31 points for the Fitz loss or Moore loss. That's someone with an agenda, not logic.

[JM2009]

i feel like this should be common sense for people watching the team over the last 2 years and yet its lost on so many poor souls.

 

if somebody came to a bills fan and said going into week 17 you will be the 6th best scoring offense and have a record low 9's TO's, EVERYONE should take that..... but the sad thing is you have guys around here that might legitimately say "well.... were those rushing or passing td's and how many passing yards does taylor have in this scenario?" LOL.

This post should be stickied.

When you score 34 points, break a franchise record for yards and leave the field with the lead and a minute to go how can a reasonable person pin that loss on the QB? That's not logical.

 

I'm not picking on you but the people that think QB is the reason that they were 7-9 are so wrong. The offense played at a playoff level. The defense played at a 3 win level. The HC was awful as well. We need to stop using our emotions and start looking at the facts. The facts don't blame the guy that put up 31 points for the Fitz loss or Moore loss. That's someone with an agenda, not logic.

This too. That second Miami win should have been a W, and yet there are a handful that blame TT for the loss. That is an agenda, you're right.

[transplantbillsfan]

When you score 34 points, break a franchise record for yards and leave the field with the lead and a minute to go how can a reasonable person pin that loss on the QB? That's not logical.

 

I'm not picking on you but the people that think QB is the reason that they were 7-9 are so wrong. The offense played at a playoff level. The defense played at a 3 win level. The HC was awful as well. We need to stop using our emotions and start looking at the facts. The facts don't blame the guy that put up 31 points for the Fitz loss or Moore loss. That's someone with an agenda, not logic.

 

See, I have an issue with people who say "the only stat that matters is the record" when it comes to a QB discussion as though that sums up the QB argument... or is a big factor in it.

 

The Bills won a game against Cincinnati, but after that game I was discouraged about Taylor as a QB because he was horrible. I felt that way while being happy about the Win, of which Taylor had little to do with.

 

The Bills lost against Seattle and Miami at home, but after both games I was incredibly encouraged about Taylor as a QB because he was excellent. I felt that way while being bitterly disappointed about the Loss, of which Taylor had little to do with.

 

 

I don't understand the inability to separate an examination of the quality of a QB from Wins and Losses.

 

If that's what we're doing, then Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, Phillip Rivers, and Drew Brees all deserve immense criticism themselves for Win/Loss record of the Colts, Ravens, and Chargers over the last 2 years and the Saints over the last 3 years.

Edited June 21, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Domdab99]

Taylor detractors are like Trumpers...no amount of facts will sway them.

 

TT is going to bust out this year....Zay Jones, Andre Holmes, and some guy named Sammy will prove that a vastly different WR corp will work wonders.

 

Jones is not going to miss a beat...he'll be just like he was in college...and I predict he will have over 60 receptions.

Edited June 22, 2017 by Domdab99

[Crusher]

Roch - thanks for the detailed response.

 

What I copied and pasted from your post is really a misinterpretation of the data. Tyrod is absolutely not "better" when under pressure. Our offense's DVOA, like every offense except for the Packers, was negative when Tyrod was under pressure.

 

Tyrod is really great under pressure relative to every other QB in the league but he still isn't playing at his best. Tyrod is at his best, like all QBs, when he has time in the pocket to evaluate the field and throw the ball. A defense that gets pressure on Tyrod should still expect on average to have a positive play.

 

If our pass protection improves in 2017, our offense should be better overall. How much better also depends on if the rest of our offense can keep their other measures where they were. If for example our run game declines we will need the pass protection and/or Tyrod to be that much better.

 

I don't have anything to add but thank you for running this data. It is very illuminating.

This is wrong.

 

Tyrod was below average when not under pressure...he performed much better when facing pressure, which a number of us attribute to his mobility and playmaking ability.

[transplantbillsfan]

This is wrong.

 

Tyrod was below average when not under pressure...he performed much better when facing pressure, which a number of us attribute to his mobility and playmaking ability.

It's not wrong. You just might disagree with their methodology.

 

First of all, it's considering entire offensive DVOA on passing plays, so positive yards, whether via Taylor scrambling or passing, would factor positively towards offensive DVOA. And the opposite would also be true.

 

Knowing that Footballoutsiders overall DVOA of Taylor the Passer is #19, I'd suspect that one of the reasons those "plays with no pressure" are average (16) is partially the same reason the plays with pressure jump to #2: they're factoring scrambles into that equation, whereas with their typical DVOA to end the year when they rank team offense in both the passing and running game, they lump scrambles in with the running DVOA, despite the fact that sacks are still part of the passing DVOA.

 

So really it's not wrong. You just don't agree with it, which is to be expected considering your criticisms of when I broke down his scrambles from his designed runs and considered them part of the overall passing game.

 

Hey, looks like others are catching on.

[grb]

When you score 34 points, break a franchise record for yards and leave the field with the lead and a minute to go how can a reasonable person pin that loss on the QB? That's not logical.

 

 

In the second Miami game the offense came back three different times from being down by 14 points - finally taking the lead with 80 seconds left with a TD pass on fourth down.

The offense showed real fight in that game. I'm not sure how anyone could say otherwise....

Edited June 22, 2017 by grb

[Kirby Jackson]

 

On the second Miami game : The offense also came back three different times from being down by 14 points - finally taking the lead with 80 seconds left with a TD pass on fourth down.

The offense showed real fight in that game. I'm not sure how anyone could say otherwise....

Just watch, people will make the case. Let's not forget that a playoff berth was on the line.

[BringBackOrton]

31 points scored, one minute left, should have been enough to beat Miami. Why should this offense have to score 40 points against the better teams when the defense gives up over 30 to them? Why should the offense have to do even better than not turn the ball over against everyone, and yet not expect the defense to get turnovers from the better teams.

Did you read what I said or?

My post blamed no one for anything, and didn't mention Tyrod whatsoever. What exactly are you on about?

I don't think posting any stats on the defense does anything for Tyrod's analysis?

 

Did you forget what topic you were in? Are you excluding TT from your analysis entirely? Why is your post in the Tyrod topic instead of a topic about the defense?

He's saying that a poor defense against the better teams doesn't matter. If the Bills give up over 30, TT should score 40 points. Unrealistic.

Not even close, but an unsurprising leap from you.

[BuffaloHokie13]

I don't think posting any stats on the defense does anything for Tyrod's analysis?

 

Did you forget what topic you were in? Are you excluding TT from your analysis entirely? Why is your post in the Tyrod topic instead of a topic about the defense?

It was a direct reply to someone else posting about our record when we score 24 or more points, and all the stats were directly related to that vein of thought. Surely you can comprehend that if you go back and read it instead of responding just to respond.

 

Also, because it seemed like that particular topic was diverting from the original I started a separate thread to expand on those points that have nothing to do with Tyrod specifically.

Edited June 22, 2017 by BuffaloHokie13

[Kirby Jackson]

I don't think posting any stats on the defense does anything for Tyrod's analysis?

 

Did you forget what topic you were in? Are you excluding TT from your analysis entirely? Why is your post in the Tyrod topic instead of a topic about the defense?

 

To be fair the topic is Tyrod/offense. Hokie's analysis simply digs deeper into the losses to try to pinpoint who should shoulder the load and when.

[Rochesterfan]

I'm sure overthinking has something to do with it, but do you think that part of it is that he struggles to see open receivers over the LOS because he's relatively short? I'm interested in seeing if Dennison does any rolling pockets this year to open some passing lanes for TT.

 

I think it could, but watching more "highlights" and game action - I think similar to Brees he could see enough, but there were times he chose not to throw, but when there was pressure and he reacted - he hit Clay a couple of times between the hashes and down the field late.

 

We will see more this year in a different scheme.

[JM2009]

Did you read what I said or?

I don't think posting any stats on the defense does anything for Tyrod's analysis?

 

Did you forget what topic you were in? Are you excluding TT from your analysis entirely? Why is your post in the Tyrod topic instead of a topic about the defense?

Not even close, but an unsurprising leap from you.

Bottom line: No reasonable person would blame TT for that Miami loss.

[BringBackOrton]

It was a direct reply to someone else posting about our record when we score 24 or more points, and all the stats were directly related to that vein of thought. Surely you can comprehend that if you go back and read it instead of responding just to respond.

 

Also, because it seemed like that particular topic was diverting from the original I started a separate thread to expand on those points that have nothing to do with Tyrod specifically.

To be fair the topic is Tyrod/offense. Hokie's analysis simply digs deeper into the losses to try to pinpoint who should shoulder the load and when.

Fair enough. I apologize Hokie, I feel like I see the defense brought up a lot in these topics as if it isn't universal that they weren't good and Rex Ryan sucked.

 

But I don't think that fact supports TT at all. His flaws are his flaws, with the 20th D or the 1st.

 

Bottom line: No reasonable person would blame TT for that Miami loss.

Okay? Again, not what I said.

Edited June 22, 2017 by jmc12290

[Kirby Jackson]

Fair enough. I apologize Hokie, I feel like I see the defense brought up a lot in these topics as if it isn't universal that they weren't good and Rex Ryan sucked.

 

But I don't think that fact supports TT at all. His flaws are his flaws, with the 20th D or the 1st.

 

Okay? Again, not what I said.

I don't think anyone is debating the strengths and weaknesses as much as the role that perception plays in all of this. If the defense didn't allow those 30.5 points a loss and it resulted in a couple more wins the narrative would be different. We would be talking about a 27 year-old (or whatever he is) QB with 47 TDs and 12 INTs in 29 starts and one or two playoff appearances. Would he be a better or different player? Nope, but the perception and narrative would certainly be different. The strengths and weaknesses wouldn't change though. The data says that the Bills offense had to do more than other offenses because of Rex's failings. Edited June 22, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[JM2009]

I don't think anyone is debating the strengths and weaknesses as much as the role that perception plays in all of this. If the defense didn't allow those 30.5 points a loss and it resulted in a couple more wins the narrative would be different. We would be talking about a 27 year-old (or whatever he is) QB with 47 TDs and 12 INTs in 29 starts and one or two playoff appearances. Would he be a better or different player? Nope, but the perception and narrative would certainly be different. The strengths and weaknesses wouldn't change though. The data says that the Bills offense had to do more than other offenses because of Rex's failings.

Imagine the last two seasons without Taylor, going with what we had other than him.

[BringBackOrton]

I don't think anyone is debating the strengths and weaknesses as much as the role that perception plays in all of this. If the defense didn't allow those 30.5 points a loss and it resulted in a couple more wins the narrative would be different. We would be talking about a 27 year-old (or whatever he is) QB with 47 TDs and 12 INTs in 29 starts and one or two playoff appearances. Would he be a better or different player? Nope, but the perception and narrative would certainly be different. The strengths and weaknesses wouldn't change though. The data says that the Bills offense had to do more than other offenses because of Rex's failings.

Would it?

 

We've all seen how Brock Osweiler has been an unsung hero in Houston because of how his defense has played.