Kirby Jackson Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 The OP is about how Tyrod was better than ppl thought... How does that data relate at all to the new regime? The answer is we don't know. We know a few things about the new regime and Tyrod. They wanted him here for at least this year and he has worked with Dennison before. Beyond that it's a total wait and see I think for McDermott/Beane and company.
John from Riverside Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 The OP is about how Tyrod was better than ppl thought... How does that data relate at all to the new regime? Because Tyrod Taylor while a incredible athlete is a system qb.....since the new coaches are determining the system it factors....heavily
T-Bomb Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 The answer is we don't know. Right, all it pertains to is a season in which they won 7 games, which was my point.
transplantbillsfan Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) Dude, I wasn't implying that or anything like that. You didn't just miss the point, you selected a new point out of thin air and assumed it was mine. Of course it considers passing, sacks AND scrambles. That's what I said. Take a look: Get it? Since passing DVOA already includes sacks ... when I was talking about their adjustments and said "if you include scrambles past the LOS" I was of course pointing out that the second stat includes passes, sacks and scrambles. So -for the second time - of course adding Tyrod's scrambles to his passing DVOA is going to make him look better than it makes most NFL QBs look. We all know that's the strong part of his game. Whyncha try reading carefully next time before you get your panties all sweaty and in a bunch. *sigh* I'm not missing anything, Thurm. I read it all. Did you read the article? http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016 Today, we are looking at our charting results for quarterbacks and pressure for the 2016 regular season. These are always some of the most cited and noteworthy numbers in Football Outsiders Almanac (the 2017 edition will be available in July!). This data primarily comes from Sports Information Solutions charting, although we also have access to ESPN Stats & Information data and we use that to check against the SIS data. Pressure will always have a subjective element to it, but we feel that comparing the two sources has led to a more accurate measurement. They didn't just "add in scrambles." They factored in only passing plays where the QBs faced pressure. That's different. You said, "I'm worried about Tyrod's pass game, not his run game," when, in fact, these numbers factor in both. And considering how how Taylor's passer rating is under pressure, if it doesn't change anything for you, you should at least understand what it says before deciding that it changes nothing for you. Edited June 21, 2017 by transplantbillsfan
K D Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 i don't think there are a lot of people complaining about the offense. the DEFENSE is what let us down last year. the only complaint about the offense was that once down, there was no way we are coming back. Tyrod can't air it out and get us back into games if we are down by a lot and he can't lead a game winning 2 min drive. the only way this will work is with a dominating defense that keeps the score low and for Tyrod and company to effectively and consistently move the ball and put up points
ddaryl Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 Tyrod has to prove he can put the team on his back and string together some come from behind and 2nd half / 4th quarter victories Bad defense or not.... that's what has to happen
BmarvB Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 The offense never got enough credit last season. The vast majority of our issues were on defense. Offense played well enough to win at least 10 games. Rex and Rob single handily cost us a legit shot to end the drought. Yes they did. Offense was better, Defense got worse under those two.
transplantbillsfan Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) God - I try to stay out, but it just keeps coming back and I am sure like all of the other TT threads - we will have the exact same groups on both sides calling each other names and complaining about being insulted - such fun, but I digress. Thanks Happy - I like the thought, but I am not sure what it really tells us. First - the best part of TT's game is his mobility - so none of the stats "surprise" me. What it tells me is that under pressure - where he can't think and plays on instinct - he plays better. When he has time and an open field to read and absorb - he wants to make the perfect play and therefore is much less effective. What to me is truly scary is his TDs - well over half of his TD throws by this were under pressure - yet he was under pressure about 1/3 of the time. He needs to get much, much better in the flow of a game. Overall the combination of articles tell me 2 things - 1 Tyrod's legs are a huge part of his game and really helps with his play under pressure to escape and both run and throw. 2 - if I am a team playing TT - I look to what Baltimore did and I want to force him to be a QB and force him to read the field and make decisions- I think that is where TT struggles and that is why teams talk about making him be a QB. He is an improviser and his legs are a major part of his game, but the 2/3 of a time that teams did not pressure him and force him to make a play - his play tailed off. We will see what happens next - I will let you get back to insulting each other now. Soooo... this article includes scrambles, yes. It includes them for all QBs. You and Thurm have the same conclusions, it seems... that this reveals nothing new because we always knew he was a great runner. Why are you latching onto 25% of the "pressured" plays he's referring to? I say 25% because Taylor scrambled 47 times. But there were 188 "pass plays with pressure" that footballoutsiders article refers to. This isn't all about his legs. He stood in the pocket and delivered plenty of passes with pressure around him or coming straight at him. Just go watch his TD highlights and you can pretty easily figure out which ones are the pressure plays and which ones are the non pressure plays. By my count (and please, check for yourself and let me know if I counted wrong and which plays you included), of the 10 relatively obvious "pressure plays" on his passing TDs (since we know from those other sources he has 10 passing TDs under pressure) Taylor only left the pocket twice. Those were the TD pass to Salas in the Jets game and the TD pass to Hunter in the back of the end zone in the Rams game. That means he stood in the pocket and delivered 80% of his TD passes that were under pressure. And saying at those points he just always is "acting on instinct" ignores plays like the TD pass to Goodwin in the 1st Dolphins game with the defender running free straight at him and plowing him to the ground. Or the Steelers game with the pass to Clay where he pump fakes to try to make just enough room to get the ball to Clay before getting tackled. You're right, it's just another thread with people lumped in their camps, which is simply a shame because it makes civil and rational discussion absolutely impossible. It'd be helpful if everyone at least understood what the articles actually said before scurrying to try to fit that square study into their round narrative Edited June 21, 2017 by transplantbillsfan
Kirby Jackson Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 Finished the AFC tonight, will work on NFC tomorrow. Over the past 2 years the Bills are 9-9 in games where we score 24+. The only AFC Teams with equal or worse win rates scoring 24+ are: Chargers (7-7) Jaguars (4-4) Browns (3-6) In that same time span the Bills also average more points per game in losses (21.9) than any other AFC team (2nd=19.6; 16th=14.2) and in losses, the Bills average 30.5 points allowed per game, good for 2nd most in the AFC (1st=30.7; 16th=23.5) EDIT: Ooh, and a potential correlation: 6 AFC teams have allowed 24+ points 12 times or less over the past 2 years. All 6 have made the playoffs at least once, and 4 of the 6 have made the playoffs both years! This really is the headline of the Rex Ryan era. Great work Hokie!!
TSOL Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 I'd rather have a QB who looks good in the fourth quarter than a QB whose data looks good in June.
HappyDays Posted June 21, 2017 Author Posted June 21, 2017 First - the best part of TT's game is his mobility - so none of the stats "surprise" me. What it tells me is that under pressure - where he can't think and plays on instinct - he plays better. When he has time and an open field to read and absorb - he wants to make the perfect play and therefore is much less effective. if I am a team playing TT - I look to what Baltimore did and I want to force him to be a QB and force him to read the field and make decisions- I think that is where TT struggles and that is why teams talk about making him be a QB. Roch - thanks for the detailed response. What I copied and pasted from your post is really a misinterpretation of the data. Tyrod is absolutely not "better" when under pressure. Our offense's DVOA, like every offense except for the Packers, was negative when Tyrod was under pressure. Tyrod is really great under pressure relative to every other QB in the league but he still isn't playing at his best. Tyrod is at his best, like all QBs, when he has time in the pocket to evaluate the field and throw the ball. A defense that gets pressure on Tyrod should still expect on average to have a positive play. If our pass protection improves in 2017, our offense should be better overall. How much better also depends on if the rest of our offense can keep their other measures where they were. If for example our run game declines we will need the pass protection and/or Tyrod to be that much better. Finished the AFC tonight, will work on NFC tomorrow. Over the past 2 years the Bills are 9-9 in games where we score 24+. The only AFC Teams with equal or worse win rates scoring 24+ are: Chargers (7-7) Jaguars (4-4) Browns (3-6) In that same time span the Bills also average more points per game in losses (21.9) than any other AFC team (2nd=19.6; 16th=14.2) and in losses, the Bills average 30.5 points allowed per game, good for 2nd most in the AFC (1st=30.7; 16th=23.5) EDIT: Ooh, and a potential correlation: 6 AFC teams have allowed 24+ points 12 times or less over the past 2 years. All 6 have made the playoffs at least once, and 4 of the 6 have made the playoffs both years! I don't have anything to add but thank you for running this data. It is very illuminating.
John from Riverside Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 I'd rather have a QB who looks good in the fourth quarter than a QB whose data looks good in June. Gotta him guys that will make plays for that
TSOL Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 Gotta him guys that will make plays for that I'm skeptical, but open to him changing my mind.
transplantbillsfan Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 Just read through this thread, and clearly Thurman and Rochesterfan had the best and most accurate posts. This thread kind of piggybacks off of the last Tyrod thread and Transplants post near the end about Tyrod and how he fares under pressure, and at that time I argued how that was not surprising because of his mobility and ability to make things happen. It was met with opposition from a certain pro Tyrod poster who challenged this assertion with inadequate information. I'm glad to see this brought back up so that we can get more answers on it. You can name me. You don't have to say "a certain pro Tyrod poster." I was the one who challenged your assertion because it was wrong. You, Thurman, and RF all seem to be under the impression that every time Taylor's under pressure, he breaks the pocket or scrambles. You call visual proof from easy access of Taylor's TD highlights, which show a QB only leaving the pocket 20% of the time when pressured "inadequate information?" If it is, I don't know what to give you. You certainly aren't going to trust me if I go through every single pass of Taylor and count 'em up. I won't waste my time doing that when there's no chance anything will sway you. If you have game pass, go watch every single passing play from Taylor and count them up for yourself. Even if you're looking at those plays with biased eyes, at least you're putting in some effort Can we just wait for the 2017 season and let that speak for itself? Then what are we supposed to do here in the meantime?
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 Tyrod has to prove he can put the team on his back and string together some come from behind and 2nd half / 4th quarter victories Bad defense or not.... that's what has to happen no one can dispute that. It has to happen more often than not as well, once a season isn't enough
transplantbillsfan Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 i don't think there are a lot of people complaining about the offense. the DEFENSE is what let us down last year. the only complaint about the offense was that once down, there was no way we are coming back. Tyrod can't air it out and get us back into games if we are down by a lot and he can't lead a game winning 2 min drive. the only way this will work is with a dominating defense that keeps the score low and for Tyrod and company to effectively and consistently move the ball and put up points There are at least an incredibly vocal minority complaining about the offense. It's possible there aren't a lot of them, but the few there are get very vocal and sometimes belligerent about it.
Maury Ballstein Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 It'd be helpful if everyone at least understood what the articles actually said before scurrying to try to fit that square study into their round narrative Which Gruden brother are you ?
transplantbillsfan Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 Which Gruden brother are you ? Productive post
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) There are at least an incredibly vocal minority complaining about the offense. It's possible there aren't a lot of them, but the few there are get very vocal and sometimes belligerent about it. People in glass houses shouldn't throw stones transplant. I've an idea for you. Start a new thread / Poll and make it public where people can go on record. This way we shall see "for real" who is in the minority and who isn't. Maybe some people are sick and tired of posting the same thing day after day after day after day. I know I grow tired of it. I'm even more tired of being called out as a hater and having an agenda. Edited June 21, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan
Kirby Jackson Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) no one can dispute that. It has to happen more often than not as well, once a season isn't enough I guess that I don't know why it's fair to expect the offense to do it more than most? The Hokie stats are pretty damning. The Bills offense shouldn't be vilified for not achieving something that other offenses aren't forced to achieve. They lost 6 games scoring 24 points!! That's more than the AFC playoff teams combined. If you picked up the 2015-2016 Bills offense and paired it with a decent defense you are looking at 11 wins. Edited June 21, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
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