New data shows Tyrod/the offense was better than you thought

[Figster]

Yes to all those questions - if I could get Palmer or Romo or Manning to come here I would start them all over TT.

 

I think both Prescott and Winston are significantly better NFL QBs than TT - they have fewer years in the league and I would much rather have either one as my QB.

 

Guys like Dalton and Newton are guys not much better than TT, but both have lead their team to the playoffs multiple times - so yes - I would take both of those guys over TT straight up.

 

Those are my opinions - they may not match yours, but my guess is many are close - you may slide some guys up or down, but probably have TT around the middle rather than top 10 like the guy I responded to.

I think its a very logical assessment of where Taylor is at this point.

[Big Gun]

Well sir....lets take a look at that list

 

Newton is coming off a pretty down year where he showed some nasty attitude as a leader.......and while I would take him the margin between the two is slim because you need some leadership intangibles to play the positin.

 

Carr is gonna be in that front list very soon.....the kid is going to be very good.

 

Prescott has had ONE year of stats that are marginally better then tyrods playing behind the best OL in the league with the 2nd best running game with pass catchers that have far surpassed what TT has had to work with

 

Marriotta has the potential to be a top QB in the NFL

 

Before Winston is listed as a "good" qb he needs to stop throwing the ball to the other team.....he posseses the skills but man is he a turnover machine

 

Manning.....top QB

 

Cousins.....I think there is a debate here....if this guy was a franchise guy he would have his contract by now. To me Cousins is a push

 

Stafford....they guy is a gifted passer. He also has a bad habit of making very bad in game decisions...but frankly he is all that the lions have (which is interesting...because the last 2 years Tyrod is all the BILLS have had.....they they produce in different ways)

 

Wentz.....started strong.....tailed off badly as the season went on in his FIRST year....this guy could improve or regress

 

I mean....TT is not a franchise guy like some on this list and is a total system qb.....but finding guys that wont **** the bed and lose the game for you are even hard to find. Tyrod Taylor has some things that he does better then anyone else in the league in his own right.

 

I just need to see how those talents translate to Dennison's offense....there is a reason we aquired 2 first round pick in next year's draft.

Keep in mind everyone of those guys is asked to do more within their offense than is Tyrod and yet the majority still outperformed Taylor.

[Rochesterfan]

I think its a very logical assessment of where Taylor is at this point.

I think TT is very hard to judge across the board because he is what each person sees in his mind.

 

Unlike someone like Brady or Rodgers or even Big Ben, that you can rank because of their sheer numbers and what they have accomplished - TT is not that way. His numbers are all over the board and the things he has done are all over the place - so therefore he creates a lot of controversy and divided opinions. He doesn't throw ints, but his passing totals are so much lower than everyone else and what he was asked to do was not the same caliber as a true elite QB.

 

It is really all about what you see. Where I see him and where some others see him may be close or may be far apart, but they are only our own opinions. He has time to change all of our opinions and become a Big Ben or even a Flacco or he can become the next Fitzpatrick and just be a 3rd tier starter filling in while we wait for the next guy.

 

Until either of those days come everything else is just opinion.

[Bills757]

I think TT is very hard to judge across the board because he is what each person sees in his mind.

 

Unlike someone like Brady or Rodgers or even Big Ben, that you can rank because of their sheer numbers and what they have accomplished - TT is not that way. His numbers are all over the board and the things he has done are all over the place - so therefore he creates a lot of controversy and divided opinions. He doesn't throw ints, but his passing totals are so much lower than everyone else and what he was asked to do was not the same caliber as a true elite QB.

 

It is really all about what you see. Where I see him and where some others see him may be close or may be far apart, but they are only our own opinions. He has time to change all of our opinions and become a Big Ben or even a Flacco or he can become the next Fitzpatrick and just be a 3rd tier starter filling in while we wait for the next guy.

 

Until either of those days come everything else is just opinion.

Part of the issue around these parts is the fact the Bills haven't made the playoffs in years. People are restless and impatient.....they want to win now and putting together the pieces doesn't mean squat. Some on this board keep clamoring for OBD to "draft a franchise QB"....as if they grow on friggin trees. Quite a few of the franchise QB's of today weren't all that when they first started. It's just hard for some to comprehend this fact because of how good said QB's are today.

 

The last two years have been nothing more than being in limbo IMO because I never thought Rex could do any better than what he did. He handicapped this team and this franchise with what amounted to smoke, mirrors and a lot of hot air. I have no idea what the Pegula's were smokin' when they hired him but it had to laced with idiot.

 

By hiring McDermott, the Pegulas went from financing a clown show to investing in a real business. And while the jury's still out on McD and Beane, from what I've seen thus far, they mean business. With Dennison on staff and much improved discipline I expect to see this year, I'm way more hopeful in '17 versus either '15 or '16.

Edited June 28, 2017 by Bills757

[DirtDart]

Yes this is a Tyrod thread. I would love if all the name calling and petty arguments could stay out of this one.

 

I thought I was done analyzing the Bills offense in 2016, but these three articles that were published over the past couple days changed my mind:

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/6/19/15829060/buffalo-bills-tyrod-taylor-lesean-mccoy-highest-first-down-conversion-rate-after-sack-in-2016

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-hc-mcdermott-impressed-with-tyrod-taylors-leadership/

 

Taken together, these articles give us a lot of new information about how well Tyrod and the Bills offense fared when under pressure, or after taking a sack.

 

The conventional wisdom is that sacks are drive-killers. The first link is a study looking into how often a team was able to get a 1st down after taking a sack.

 

The average team was able to obtain a 1st down after a sack just 16.01% of the time. But the Bills converted for a 1st down 28.26% of the time after a sack. This was the highest percentage in the league (for comparison's sake, Miami was the worst in the league with a 3.33% 1st down rate).

 

We took 46 sacks total of which we converted 13. So in actuality we took 33 drive-killing sacks in 2016. This number needs to go down in 2017 but at least as an offense we were better able to recover after a sack than any other offense in the league.

 

The next two links are far more interesting to me. Football Outsiders published a study showing how often QBs were under defensive pressure on a passing play. They also calculated what the total offense's DVOA looked like when the QB was under pressure, whether the QB scrambled or threw the ball. This is really important because previously we only had good DVOA data on Tyrod's passing. Now we get a sense of how his passing and mobility can affect the entire offense's production.

 

The data:

-Tyrod was under pressure on 35.3% of his pass plays. Only Jared Goff was pressured more, out of 34 qualifying QBs. This obviously needs to get better, whoever you want to blame.

-Our offense's DVOA when Tyrod wasn't under pressure was 16th in the league - exactly average.

-Our offense's DVOA when Tyrod was under pressure was 2nd in the league. Only the Packers/Aaron Rodgers were better.

 

Finally, the last link tells us that Tyrod also had the 7th best passer rating (80.1) when under pressure. And he threw 10 TDs when under pressure which was 3rd best in the league (Luck and Rodgers were ahead of him).

 

So there's a lot of really great data here. IMO the data shows Tyrod was better than people give him credit for. He was under pressure way too often. I know he has a tendency to hold the ball too long but I don't believe that tendency is enough to explain our extremely low 33/34 ranking. Hopefully Dawkins helps solve this problem in 2017.

 

Most of all, the data shows that when you factor in Tyrod's passing and scrambling, our offense performed anywhere from average (16th) to outstanding (2nd) on called passing plays. If one of your central criticisms of Tyrod is that his scrambling isn't as important as being a good passer, this data puts a pretty big dent in that criticism IMO. Especially when you consider how often Tyrod was under pressure and therefore how often we needed this special talent of his.

 

Interpret and argue away!

How many of these tie rod fanboy threads do we need? Nice work.

[GoBills808]

Well sir....lets take a look at that list

 

Newton is coming off a pretty down year where he showed some nasty attitude as a leader.......and while I would take him the margin between the two is slim because you need some leadership intangibles to play the positin.

 

Carr is gonna be in that front list very soon.....the kid is going to be very good.

 

Prescott has had ONE year of stats that are marginally better then tyrods playing behind the best OL in the league with the 2nd best running game with pass catchers that have far surpassed what TT has had to work with

 

Marriotta has the potential to be a top QB in the NFL

 

Before Winston is listed as a "good" qb he needs to stop throwing the ball to the other team.....he posseses the skills but man is he a turnover machine

 

Manning.....top QB

 

Cousins.....I think there is a debate here....if this guy was a franchise guy he would have his contract by now. To me Cousins is a push

 

Stafford....they guy is a gifted passer. He also has a bad habit of making very bad in game decisions...but frankly he is all that the lions have (which is interesting...because the last 2 years Tyrod is all the BILLS have had.....they they produce in different ways)

 

Wentz.....started strong.....tailed off badly as the season went on in his FIRST year....this guy could improve or regress

 

I mean....TT is not a franchise guy like some on this list and is a total system qb.....but finding guys that wont **** the bed and lose the game for you are even hard to find. Tyrod Taylor has some things that he does better then anyone else in the league in his own right.

 

I just need to see how those talents translate to Dennison's offense....there is a reason we aquired 2 first round pick in next year's draft.

I'm sorry, but the margin between Newton and Taylor is not slim. Lost me there.

[John from Riverside]

I'm sorry, but the margin between Newton and Taylor is not slim. Lost me there.

You said you wanted to discuss it.....then you dont want to discuss it.

Keep in mind everyone of those guys is asked to do more within their offense than is Tyrod and yet the majority still outperformed Taylor.

No...they are asked to pass for more yards.....Tyrod contributes in other ways that they do not in the offense.

[GoBills808]

You said you wanted to discuss it.....then you dont want to discuss it.

It's not a serious topic. You're comparing a league MVP to a guy pretty widely established as anywhere from the 18th-24th ranked QB in the league.

[John from Riverside]

It's not a serious topic. You're comparing a league MVP to a guy pretty widely established as anywhere from the 18th-24th ranked QB in the league.

you do know that every new year begins a new year right?

 

Cam Newton WAS a league MVP.....thank god he had one of the top defenses backing him up that year huh?

 

Tyrod Taylor probably is in that range somewhere......but could have a better year this year

[GoBills808]

you do know that every new year begins a new year right?

 

Cam Newton WAS a league MVP.....thank god he had one of the top defenses backing him up that year huh?

 

Tyrod Taylor probably is in that range somewhere......but could have a better year this year

I'm counting on him having a better year. It probably won't be good enough to get this team anywhere and will solidify the decision to draft a QB first in 2018. That's the category I have Taylor in: not good enough. Newton is not in that category, regardless of their respective defenses.

[xRUSHx]

Tyrod is what he is, not good enough. I expect the same not good enough for 2017. I am hopeful for a top drafted QB in 2018 because until we have a QB that is good enough it just doesn't matter. Will we get a QB in 2018 drafted in the 1st or will this staff stick with Baltimore's backup like Chan did with Fitz just to be replaced in 2019? Will history repeat itself, will the Bills continue the longest loser streak in sports for the entire time of this new staff? Will the Bills ever get a QB that can be as good to the team as Kelly was? Will our new GM continue Whaleys QB plague of QB purgatory? I expect no different in 2017 with Tyrod but 2018 could be a new beginning if a new stud is drafted, fingers crossed. Go Bills

To all you Tyrod pushers, dream on

Edited June 28, 2017 by xRUSHx

[Bangarang]

you do know that every new year begins a new year right?

 

Cam Newton WAS a league MVP.....thank god he had one of the top defenses backing him up that year huh?

 

Tyrod Taylor probably is in that range somewhere......but could have a better year this year

This sounds ridiculous.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

you do know that every new year begins a new year right?

 

Cam Newton WAS a league MVP.....thank god he had one of the top defenses backing him up that year huh?

 

Tyrod Taylor probably is in that range somewhere......but could have a better year this year

Cam Newton plays defense? :lol:

 

on another sarcastic note --- the Defense made the QB look better

 

just busting on you J.

[JM2009]

Tyrod is what he is, not good enough. I expect the same not good enough for 2017. I am hopeful for a top drafted QB in 2018 because until we have a QB that is good enough it just doesn't matter. Will we get a QB in 2018 drafted in the 1st or will this staff stick with Baltimore's backup like Chan did with Fitz just to be replaced in 2019? Will history repeat itself, will the Bills continue the longest loser streak in sports for the entire time of this new staff? Will the Bills ever get a QB that can be as good to the team as Kelly was? Will our new GM continue Whaleys QB plague of QB purgatory? I expect no different in 2017 with Tyrod but 2018 could be a new beginning if a new stud is drafted, fingers crossed. Go Bills

To all you Tyrod pushers, dream on

QB purgatory. right.....once again, if the defense had played better in 2016 the Bills would have been the WC, not Miami, and this playoff drought would be over. The offense was not the main problem, defense and coaching was. But you don't get it because you don't want to.

[HappyDays]

It's not a serious topic. You're comparing a league MVP to a guy pretty widely established as anywhere from the 18th-24th ranked QB in the league.

Just as an example I would rather have Tyrod right now than Joe Flacco right now regardless of the fact Flacco was once Super Bowl MVP. I see no upside with him from here on out and I don't expect him to ever play that good again. I think Tyrod has more upside and has actually played better than him the past 2 seasons, last season a wash at best.

 

Now Cam Newton's a tough one to grade because he had one stellar year and a lot of mediocrity outside of that. Their top defense played a big role that year too. But Tyrod isn't better than Cam Newton either. On a given Sunday, either one could perform better than the other. I tend to believe a lot of QBs are closer performance-wise than people think. Like Tyrod vs Brady you obviously expect Brady to look better. But outside of the top 8-10 QBs I wouldn't necessarily expect any QB to have a better day than Tyrod, and there's probably 5 or so starting QBs I would generally expect Tyrod to perform better than. So in my mind there's a big middle tier of QBs and the only thing that separates them is how they look in a given game or season. Like Andy Dalton before his injury in 2015 I expect to look better than Tyrod, but Tyrod last year I expect to look better than Andy Dalton. So how can I rank one above the other?

 

This is why I'm glad Tyrod is getting his 3rd season. It's really a make or break year for him. We'll have 3 seasons of good data to know what kind of QB he can be.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

Tyrod is what he is, not good enough. I expect the same not good enough for 2017. I am hopeful for a top drafted QB in 2018 because until we have a QB that is good enough it just doesn't matter. Will we get a QB in 2018 drafted in the 1st or will this staff stick with Baltimore's backup like Chan did with Fitz just to be replaced in 2019? Will history repeat itself, will the Bills continue the longest loser streak in sports for the entire time of this new staff? Will the Bills ever get a QB that can be as good to the team as Kelly was? Will our new GM continue Whaleys QB plague of QB purgatory? I expect no different in 2017 with Tyrod but 2018 could be a new beginning if a new stud is drafted, fingers crossed. Go Bills

To all you Tyrod pushers, dream on

 

where have I heard this before.

 

 

 

 

tyrod pusher or TEAM supporter?

 

 

 

 

 

crusades: any vigorous, aggressive movement for the defense or advancement of an idea, cause, etc.:

[John from Riverside]

How many of these tie rod fanboy threads do we need? Nice work.

Is this really necessary?

Cam Newton plays defense? :lol:

 

on another sarcastic note --- the Defense made the QB look better

 

just busting on you J.

 

No...I get what your saying......but you can see how that applies to our qb as well

Yes to all those questions - if I could get Palmer or Romo or Manning to come here I would start them all over TT. I understand they left or have almost left the game and I still think they are better QBs than 1/2 the league - not for a lot longer, but a for the coming year - I would take them.

 

I think both Prescott and Winston are significantly better NFL QBs than TT - they have fewer years in the league and I would much rather have either one as my QB.

 

Guys like Dalton and Newton are guys not much better than TT, but both have lead their team to the playoffs multiple times - so yes - I would take both of those guys over TT straight up.

 

Those are my opinions - they may not match yours, but my guess is many are close - you may slide some guys up or down, but probably have TT around the middle rather than top 10 like the guy I responded to.

you are entitled to your opinion....I am just pointed out that some of the guys on that list are old and fading fast and one has a back injury and nobody wanted him even when he was released......that says something.

 

Tyrod is young and in his prime...his prime might not be as good as THEIR primes.....but we are not taking a snapshot in time here...we are talking about the next season.....

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Is this really necessary?

 

No...I get what your saying......but you can see how that applies to our qb as well

Correct.

 

A better Defense would have led to more Wins and an even bigger cult following in the CoT.

 

With a legitimate ELITE Defense practically any JAG QB will get wins.

[John from Riverside]

Correct.

 

A better Defense would have led to more Wins and an even bigger cult following in the CoT.

 

With a legitimate ELITE Defense practically any JAG QB will get wins.

By the way....I am not saying that TT is a more talented qb then Cam Newton especially physically. Only that there are certain intangibles to the postiion that I feel TT has over Cam that cannnot be discounted.

[xRUSHx]

 

where have I heard this before.

 

 

 

 

tyrod pusher or TEAM supporter?

 

 

 

 

 

crusades: any vigorous, aggressive movement for the defense or advancement of an idea, cause, etc.:

I love how you say crusade to me when you see in Tyrod thread after Tyrod thread the same 2 or 3 crusading the same old Tyrod talk. He has been hashed out in a million threads on BBMB and the same few continued the crusade over here.

 

Hey man we get it you guys love who we have but the constant pushing of him is very tiresome. Let this thread die off and please don't crusade another love fest thread until Tyrod does more then his has the last two seasons. I don't have a crusade I post a option on these threads every once in a while when I see a thread once again out of control in a crusade to try to push more fans into the Tyrod is franchise worthy category. Hey man I have said countless times I wish him luck but truth is I don't think even luck can get him to finish a full season that gets us to the playoffs, it's because he is not good enough in my opinion. Count how many times I crusade on this or other threads and you will see maybe 3 or 4 posts while these few like yourself have been posting thousands of times fighting with posters that disagree in 100s of Tyrod threads.

 

I'm a season ticket holder and have been for many many seasons, I support the team I just want better from my team not the same old glossed over glasses that our QB is better then what we all see with our own eyes.

 

This team needs a real QB not some other teams backup wishing for that one mircle season, we have seen that long enough with multiple staffs. What this team needs a true franchise worthy QB until that happens that koolaid is sugarless colored water that has no flavor unless it's the off season when crusaders like yourself throw in artificial sweeteners.

Edited June 28, 2017 by xRUSHx