One big, dirty, stat.

[Dragonborn10]

 

 

Well, first, they're not top seven, they're in a three-way tie for seventh. But that's a quibble. Here's the main point.

 

 

 

For the third time now, I understand that they're top 7 in offensive touchdowns. And that's huge if you're looking at the performance of ... wait for it ... the offense, the whole offense. See how that works? Offensive touchdowns are produced by the whole offense.

 

Whereas .. and here's what you missed the first two times ... when you are trying to look at how good the pass game is ... you look at what the pass game produced. Not what the run game produced. See how it's kind of an equivalence?

 

The offense scored a lot of TDs. Because the run game was terrific and scored a bunch of TDs. Whereas the pass game was substandard and did not score a lot of TDs.

 

And now the architect of that terrific run game, Roman, has left and is in Baltimore. This is cause for worry that the run game might not be as good next year.

 

All is said to pee in your Cheerios was thank goodness for the run game that scored all those points. They covered up the poor performance of the pass game. I didn't say anything implying that the whole offense didn't score a lot of TDs. I understand that it did. I merely pointed out that it was the run game's doing, that the run game scored almost 2/3rds of the Bills TDs and that no other team had less than 50% of their TDs scored by the passing game. Don't know why stone cold facts like this would make you angry.

 

Unless of course you're trying to use a measure of the performance of the whole offense to come to unwarranted conclusions about a mere part of the offense.

 

So again, the offense scored a lot. Can't argue with that. But it was overwhelmingly the extremely good run game (scoring 29 of our 46 offensive TDs, 63% when no other team was above 50%. Can't argue with that either.

Did I miss something? Are passing touchdowns worth more points than rushing touchdowns? Do you get points for passing yards now? Is it like skeetball? Do you get more points for a TD throw over the middle?

Easily can count both games.

 

When the offense has 70 yards passing through 3 qtrs vs Pitt or offense gets shut down by dismal Dolphins defense over and over they get no pass.

 

Hopefully next year is better on both sides of the ball.

Bills lead by 11 points against Dolphins with a quarter to play. The defense gave up a 200 yard rusher. Again, even an average defense wins that game by double digits.

[The Wiz]

 

 

 

OK, if that's your point, I withdraw that particular objection.

 

But I'm afraid I have a different objection. Which is this: there's a reason they rank teams offensively by how many yards they get rather than how many points they score.

 

And the Bills were 16th in offensive yards. They did not provide the defense with good field position. Last year's offense made the defense look worse and the defense made the offense look better. The offense had the 11th best average drive start field position in the league while the defense had the 23rd best.

 

Yards far better separate offensive performance from the defensive and STs performance. Whereas points have a much larger proportion of responsibility for the whole team.

 

Both yards and points are important but yards better isolate each unit from the others.

 

 

 

Oh, and I'd also say, "good enough"? Good enough for what? Good enough to make the playoffs? Yeah, probably, as a fodder team. But to be competitive for a Super Bowl victory? I don't think the offense was good enough. To win a Super Bowl with that offense, I'd argue you would have to have an absolutely sensational defense and a lot of luck and good timing besides.

 

 

 

I have no objection to calling the defense bad. They were. But the offense wasn't as good as some Bills fans believe. Ask around the league where they rank and you'll find tend to find people ranking them 16th, not 7th, and thinking that's a pretty reasonable representation. We fans who watched the games might argue we know better and crank them up a few spots but I don't think too many reasonable non-Bills-fan observers would say they were the 7th best offense in the league.

Just curious, does that include special teams pros/cons? Like when the bills get a punt received at the 3 and run it back for 40 yards or when the bills punt to the 5 and let someone run for 40 yards?

[MPT]

 

 

How could a "design" so grossly out of balance help out a struggling defense in any way?

The best ways to help out a defense are running the football and scoring points. The offense did both of those things very well.

[MPT]

 

And the Bills were 16th in offensive yards. They did not provide the defense with good field position. Last year's offense made the defense look worse and the defense made the offense look better. The offense had the 11th best average drive start field position in the league while the defense had the 23rd best.

 

First of all, 16th is exactly average. Second of all, field position is a special teams statistic. We had a kicker who couldn't kick the ball through the end zone on kickoffs and a punter who finished dead last in yards per punt in the league (he also tied for first in punts out of bounds and 32nd in longest punt).

 

I am eagerly awaiting the day you blame Tyrod for Carpenter's missed field goals and extra points. Really should have lined up for a 2 point conversion, drawn the defense offside, and then Carpenter would only have to kick a 20 yard extra point instead of a 25 yard extra point. Stupid Tyrod!

 

Actually, I have no idea what would happen in that scenario involving offside during a 2 point conversion and then switching to an extra point. Would be an interesting factoid. Anyway, you get the point. Well, probably not. But, point made.

Edited June 18, 2017 by MPT

[MPT]

 

Why wouldn't we run in the red zone? I agree. And that's the point. The run game was really good and the pass game wasn't. Why not run in the red zone and out of it? And you're assuming that all the running TDs came in the red zone, and that's not true.

 

Oh, and a QB generally ought to have a higher QB rating in the red zone because it's gonna tend to be easier to get TDs there than elsewhere on the field. It's also true that in the red zone he completed 60% (40.9% from inside the 10) and had a 4.8 YPA.(2.2 inside the 10). And the nature of red zone passing attempts surely affects those numbers too. Not sure that particular stat (and I like passer rating) should be used in that kind of a split.

Tyrod had the 7th highest QBR in the league inside the red zone. He was also tied for 4th in QB rushing TDs inside the red zone. Not too shabby.

 

People keep wanting to say that we had a lot of offensive TDs and therefore the passing game was good. And this doesn't logically folow, especially when you have such a terrific run game.

Actually, I don't think anyone has ever made that claim. You just interpret "Tyrod is an integral part of a top-ten offense and doesn't turn the ball over" as "TYROD IS THE BEST QB IN THE LEAGUE." It's understandable why you'd be arguing against that point, but nobody is making it, so...

[Big Gun]

First of all, 16th is exactly average. Second of all, field position is a special teams statistic. We had a kicker who couldn't kick the ball through the end zone on kickoffs and a punter who finished dead last in yards per punt in the league (he also tied for first in punts out of bounds and 32nd in longest punt).

 

I am eagerly awaiting the day you blame Tyrod for Carpenter's missed field goals and extra points. Really should have lined up for a 2 point conversion, drawn the defense offside, and then Carpenter would only have to kick a 20 yard extra point instead of a 25 yard extra point. Stupid Tyrod!

 

Actually, I have no idea what would happen in that scenario involving offside during a 2 point conversion and then switching to an extra point. Would be an interesting factoid. Anyway, you get the point. Well, probably not. But, point made.

The defense was ranked 16th in points against. Was that good bad or average?

[MPT]

The defense was ranked 16th in points against. Was that good bad or average?

It's average. What's your point?

[#34fan]

The best ways to help out a defense are running the football and scoring points. The offense did both of those things very well.

 

Against WHO???

 

We beat ONE team with a winning record, and that was the Pats in chaos WITHOUT Brady!

 

Yah, we showed out on 1-15 CLE... Schooled the 4-12 Rams.. Punished 3-13 Jacksonville... 2-14 Niners never left the team bus... They all lost because THEY SUCKED, NOT because Tyrod saved the day!

 

Literally ANY TEAM who could fight back beat our ^ss!

 

All's I'm saying is that there's a strong possibility we do better if we could pass..... You and Scott are free to celebrate the stats the RUN put up against TURRBLE teams... I choose to look down the road at what promises to be a much more challenging season.... We should try not to be dead last in passing attempts again... Might not work out the same way.

[MPT]

 

Against WHO???

 

We beat ONE team with a winning record, and that was the Pats in chaos WITHOUT Brady!

And yet, despite countless posts with endless stats and evidence showing the Bills put up points against good teams, you still think the defense wasn't the problem.

 

Literally ANY TEAM who could fight back beat our ^ss!

Exactly. Other teams had to fight back. We put up points, but the good teams always put up more. That's a reflection of the defense, not the offense.

 

All's I'm saying is that there's a strong possibility we do better if we could pass..... You and Scott are free to celebrate the stats the RUN put up against TURRBLE teams... I choose to look down the road at what promises to be a much more challenging season.... We should try not to be dead last in passing attempts again... Might not work out the same way.

The first bolded is simply not true. The rushing stats were generally spectacular against good teams as well as bad teams. You don't end up with the #1 rushing attack by only doing it against bad teams.

 

As for the second bolded, I whole heartedly agree. I was really hoping we'd use the last game of the season in 2016 by putting Tyrod to the test in the passing game instead of wasting it on EJ. If we can be a little more consistent with the passing game and improve our defense to even average levels, we'll be a very good team.

[#34fan]

 

 

Exactly. Other teams had to fight back. We put up points, but the good teams always put up more. That's a reflection of the defense, not the offense.

 

 

The rushing stats were generally spectacular against good teams as well as bad teams. You don't end up with the #1 rushing attack by only doing it against bad teams.

 

 

 

Exactly.. "The good teams put up more".. You said it pal, I didn't..

 

The run wasn't enough against stiffer comp... We needed a stronger passing attack to be competitive in those situations.

 

This year, the D is a question mark, and I can't find six CUPCAKES anywhere on the schedule... TT, or somebody, is gonna have to throw... -Or else....

[MPT]

 

Exactly.. "The good teams put up more".. You said it pal, I didn't..

Well one of us has to tell it like it is.

 

The run wasn't enough against stiffer comp... We needed a stronger passing attack to be competitive in those situations.

Still blaming the offense for the defense's ineptitude.

 

This year, the D is a question mark, and I can't find six CUPCAKES anywhere on the schedule... TT, or somebody, is gonna have to throw... -Or else....

A question mark would be an improvement. At least then, instead of certain defeat, there would be some games against good teams we'd actually have a chance of winning.

[#34fan]

 

A question mark would be an improvement. At least then, instead of certain defeat, there would be some games against good teams we'd actually have a chance of winning.

 

Not with the lamest passing attack in the league we won't... It's t like you said... If we want to be good, we are going to have to "put up more".

[MPT]

 

Not with the lamest passing attack in the league we won't... It's t like you said... If we want to be good, we are going to have to "put up more".

Actually, I said the other teams "put up more." That's the part we have to fix. Because we are already putting up enough on offense.

 

Curious: how bad does the defense have to be before you lay any responsibility at their feet? Do we even need to field a defense, or should our offense be able to put up more points no matter what?

 

Let me put it another way... If you're running a business, and that business is generating more revenue than most of your competitors but bleeding expenses faster than most, which area do you focus on to improve your bottom line? Seems pretty f'in obvious, eh?

[Big Gun]

And yet, despite countless posts with endless stats and evidence showing the Bills put up points against good teams, you still think the defense wasn't the problem.

 

 

Exactly. Other teams had to fight back. We put up points, but the good teams always put up more. That's a reflection of the defense, not the offense.

 

The first bolded is simply not true. The rushing stats were generally spectacular against good teams as well as bad teams. You don't end up with the #1 rushing attack by only doing it against bad teams.

 

As for the second bolded, I whole heartedly agree. I was really hoping we'd use the last game of the season in 2016 by putting Tyrod to the test in the passing game instead of wasting it on EJ. If we can be a little more consistent with the passing game and improve our defense to even average levels, we'll be a very good team.

16th in points against, average like you said, right?

Well one of us has to tell it like it is.

 

 

Still blaming the offense for the defense's ineptitude.

 

 

A question mark would be an improvement. At least then, instead of certain defeat, there would be some games against good teams we'd actually have a chance of winning.

16th against in points again, average, right?

Edited June 18, 2017 by old school

[MPT]

16th in points against, average like you said, right?

16th in points against. Average. 29th in rushing yards against. Atrocious.

[Big Gun]

Actually, I said the other teams "put up more." That's the part we have to fix. Because we are already putting up enough on offense.

 

Curious: how bad does the defense have to be before you lay any responsibility at their feet? Do we even need to field a defense, or should our offense be able to put up more points no matter what?

 

Let me put it another way... If you're running a business, and that business is generating more revenue than most of your competitors but bleeding expenses faster than most, which area do you focus on to improve your bottom line? Seems pretty f'in obvious, eh?

16th against in points again, average again, right?

16th in points against. Average. 29th in rushing yards against. Atrocious.

points are all that matters, right?

 

Points win/lose games not yards!

16th in points against. Average. 29th in rushing yards against. Atrocious.

Ok if you want to play the yards game, dead last in pass yards for any QB starting at least 15 games. Atrocious.

[MPT]

16th against in points again, average again, right?

 

points are all that matters, right?

 

Points win/lose games not yards!

You don't win arguments by being snarky and obtuse, sir.

 

When you lead the league in rushing and you're almost last in rushing defense, the clock is always running. This results in lower scores for each team. So, the fact that the Bills still had a top ten offense in points scored and still had an "average" defense in points scored should put to bed any misconceptions about each side's efficacy.

 

I mean, just think about the fact that we led the league in rushing (better than the #2 by a ridiculous margin of .5 yds/carry and 15 yds/game) and we were STILL 25th in time of possession.

 

Think about the fact that there were 4 games total in which a single running back rushed for 200 yards last season, and the Bills were the victim of 3 of them.

 

These are indicators of a defensive failure of historic proportions. You want to ignore these facts and the fact that the Bills were top ten in scoring?

 

Fine, go right ahead. But don't expect anyone to take you seriously.

[#34fan]

Actually, I said the other teams "put up more."

 

You said :

 

 

Exactly. Other teams had to fight back. We put up points, but the good teams always put up more. That's a reflection of the defense, not the offense.

 

 

 

Then you shamelessly agreed with me by saying:

 

If we can be a little more consistent with the passing game and improve our defense to even average levels, we'll be a very good team.

 

But here's the crux:

 

Bills D was ranked 19th overall.... Miserable by Schwartz standards, but not exactly horrendous by NFL standards.. 6th against the pass (GOOD ) but 29th against the run (BAD, VERY BAD! )

 

ATL went to the Superbowl with the 25th ranked overall D... 17th against the run, 28th against the pass... They also weren't that much better than us in passing Attempts (27th)

 

-So where did they excel???

 

Despite being 27th in pass attempts, ATL was #2 in passing yards (Bills were 30th) and #2 in passing TD's (Bills were 27th) TRANSLATION: -Ryan didn't throw that much, but when he did, he SURE made it count!

 

ATL's rushing attack was then able to COMPLIMENT Ryan's cannon by being #5 in Rushing yards, and #3 in rushing TD's!

 

I DID NOT invent these numbers people... And they don't tell a story that I particularly like... Still, the facts are clear.... As good as our ground attack was, the sorry passing game held us back.... Accept it, and we can all move on..

Edited June 18, 2017 by #34fan

[Buffalo86]

In 2016, 6 playoff teams were in the top half of the league in passing attempts. 6 playoff teams were in the bottom half.

[MPT]

 

You said :

Can you even read, or do you just kinda guess what people say and then mash your keyboard until you're tired? If you're going to quote me, make sure it doesn't say the exact words I claimed it did.

 

ATL went to the Superbowl with the 25th ranked overall D... 17th against the run, 28th against the pass... They also weren't that much better than us in passing Attempts (27th)

 

-So where did they excel???

 

Despite being 27th in pass attempts, ATL was #2 in passing yards (Bills were 30th) and #2 in passing TD's (Bills were 27th) TRANSLATION: -Ryan didn't throw that much, but when he did, he SURE made it count!

 

ATL's rushing attack was then able to COMPLIMENT Ryan's cannon by being #5 in Rushing yards, and #3 in rushing TD's!

Maybe you should call Beane and tell him to sign Matt Ryan. Then you wouldn't have to B word and moan about our QB incessantly. There must be some reason we haven't signed him, though. Can't fathom what it would be.

 

I DID NOT invent these numbers people... And they don't tell a story that I particularly like... Still, the facts are clear.... As good as our ground attack was, the sorry passing game held us back.... Accept it, and we can all move on..

Still blaming the offense for the defense's ineptitude.