Thurman#1 Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 Every QB you mentioned has far more value to their respective team than Phillip Rivers. As usual, you contribute nothing to the topic except your own terrible opinions as if anyone thinks your snark is in the least bit amusing or clever. Really? I think our offense could be top 5 with Rivers. That keeps the D off the field, helps them play above their talent level. I think that makes us a playoff contender. JMO. I think plans that constitute watching this team sputter until hopefully the savior comes 3+ years from now are terribly upsetting. Nah, Rivers has as much value to his franchise as anyone pretty much in the league. Guy's a top 5 - 7 QB. But while he might make us a playoff contender, even an elite QB wouldn't make this roster an actual title contender this year and probably not next year. We just don't have the roster. And that's why the fact that - as people keep mentioning and mentioning - he has a no-trade clause and there just isn't any way he would void that to go to a team with a roster in the state that ours is in. He's a terrific QB. But he just isn't coming here.
Thurman#1 Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 (edited) Rivers is a statue by today's standards. This is one of his biggest liabilities at this point in his career and defenses know exactly where he will be once the ball is snapped. Brady compensates with a quicker more compact delivery as he will pick teams apart with short and intermediate throws. Rivers likes to hold onto the ball a little longer and get the ball down the field. As a result he takes more sacks and has more fumbles in the pocket. Add that with his propensity to throw interceptions and the negative plays are hard to overcome, even if he is throwing for 300+ yards a game. I only point this out because Taylor gets a ton of heat from many posters for not winning enough games to get the Bills to the playoffs. He has a 15-14 record in his 2 years as a starting qb and during that time Rivers has managed to win only 9 games with SD. I know Rivers is a big name and it is blasphemy to criticize his play, but at what point does Rivers get his share of the blame for winning 4-5 games a year? I hear all the time that the Bills need to just get a franchise qb and then we are all set. By that standard, Rivers is no longer a franchise qb because he cannot even get close to the playoffs. There is a new era for qbs coming and Rivers is no longer a franchise qb. He will still post some good fantasy numbers but so does Blake Bortles and he does not win either. There is more to playing qb than just putting up big passing numbers. I may be in the minority, but at this point in their careers, I truly believe that Taylor is closer to being a franchise qb than Rivers (his record is well below .500 since Tomlinson left SD at the end of the 2009 season). Rivers is no where close to the best in 2017. If he actually was one of the best, we need to all reevaluate the importance of the qb position. Franchise qbs are supposed to equal wins and they are supposed to make everyone on the team better. If that is the case, Rivers is failing badly. He has a lot of flaws in his game right now with turnovers and lack of mobility being chief among them. No, he is not a statue by today's standards, he just isn't, unless you're going to also classify Brady, Ryan and most of the best QBs in the game as statues. Which would be dumb and remove the negative connotation from the word. He's not a running QB. But he's also not a statue. But his pocket movement skills are still there and still very good. As for Rivers hanging on too long, a lot of that is the offense rather than his propensities, and a lot of the reason he gets sacked so much is because his OL has truly and seriously sucked for years and years, and they haven't had a run game to keep defenses honest for the same multiple years. And yet again ... TYROD ... DOES ... NOT ... HAVE ... A ... 15-14 ... RECORD. That would be the Buffalo Bills in games Tyrod starts. Wins are a team stat. The stat you are referencing is actually called "TEAM WINS IN GAMES STARTED BY THIS QB (REGULAR SEASON)". And for good reason. Giving a QB credit for a win / loss if a kicker makes/misses a 45 yard game-ending field goal simply doesn't make sense. Or if a receiver knocks a ball up in the air and it's intercepted for a pick six, or if an MLB misses a tackle on a late game fourth down that would end the game but an opposing RB turns it into a TD ... The QB doesn't win games. Teams do. And Rivers has had a bad roster around him basically for the last six to seven years. Awful defenses, poor OLs. Unless you think Matt Ryan was bad for three years or so and then has been re-animated with the poltergeist of Otto Graham this year you have to understand that a team needs more than a QB, even if the QB they have is very good. Edited June 9, 2017 by Thurman#1
Thurman#1 Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 (edited) He has been on some bad teams since 2010. If you put Rivers on this team we are a playoff team. No question about it in my mind. The Bills are way more talented than the Chargers. I might take maybe 4 of their guys on defense and possibly 2 on offense (aside from Rivers) over ours. If people want reasons why the Chargers haven't been good there are lots and lots of them. I challenge anyone to go back and watch their tape from the last 2 years and say one of those reasons is Rivers. He remains the best thing about that team (though I'll give Bosa his props... he is 2nd). I can't imagine a single non-Bills fan who has looked at the tape would want Tyrod over Rivers. Exactly this. He won't come. It won't happen. And there are reasons not to want Rivers, basically age and the state of the Bills roster which almost certainly won't be good enough to compete for a title till Rivers is about ready to retire. Not to mention how prohibitive the bounty the Chargers would demand if they could somehow hypnotize Rivers into not voiding a trade to Buffalo. But right now he's still running a pass game at a much higher level than Tyrod. Edited June 9, 2017 by Thurman#1
oldmanfan Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 No, he is not a statue by today's standards, he just isn't, unless you're going to also classify Brady, Ryan and most of the best QBs in the game as statues. Which would be dumb and remove the negative . He's not a running QB. But he's also not a statue. But his pocket movement skills are still there and still very good. As for Rivers hanging on too long, a lot of that is the offense rather than his propensities, and a lot of the reason he gets sacked so much is because his OL has truly and seriously sucked for years and years, and they haven't had a run game to keep defenses honest for the same multiple years. And yet again ... TYROD ... DOES ... NOT ... HAVE ... A ... 15-14 ... RECORD. That would be the Buffalo Bills in games Tyrod starts. Wins are a team stat. The stat you are referencing is actually called "TEAM WINS IN GAMES STARTED BY THIS QB (REGULAR SEASON)". And for good reason. Giving a QB credit for a win / loss if a kicker makes/misses a 45 yard game-ending field goal simply doesn't make sense. Or if a receiver knocks a ball up in the air and it's intercepted for a pick six, or if an MLB misses a tackle on a late game fourth down that would end the game but an opposing RB turns it into a TD ... The QB doesn't win games. Teams do. And Rivers has had a bad roster around him basically for the last six to seven years. Awful defenses, poor OLs. Unless you think Matt Ryan was bad for three years or so and then has been re-animated with the poltergeist of Otto Graham this year you have to understand that a team needs more than a QB, even if the QB they have is very good. Every single person on this board knows that football is a team game. They also know that the QB position is perhaps the most important one on the team.
JM2009 Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 No, he is not a statue by today's standards, he just isn't, unless you're going to also classify Brady, Ryan and most of the best QBs in the game as statues. Which would be dumb and remove the negative connotation from the word. He's not a running QB. But he's also not a statue. But his pocket movement skills are still there and still very good. As for Rivers hanging on too long, a lot of that is the offense rather than his propensities, and a lot of the reason he gets sacked so much is because his OL has truly and seriously sucked for years and years, and they haven't had a run game to keep defenses honest for the same multiple years. And yet again ... TYROD ... DOES ... NOT ... HAVE ... A ... 15-14 ... RECORD. That would be the Buffalo Bills in games Tyrod starts. Wins are a team stat. The stat you are referencing is actually called "TEAM WINS IN GAMES STARTED BY THIS QB (REGULAR SEASON)". And for good reason. Giving a QB credit for a win / loss if a kicker makes/misses a 45 yard game-ending field goal simply doesn't make sense. Or if a receiver knocks a ball up in the air and it's intercepted for a pick six, or if an MLB misses a tackle on a late game fourth down that would end the game but an opposing RB turns it into a TD ... The QB doesn't win games. Teams do. And Rivers has had a bad roster around him basically for the last six to seven years. Awful defenses, poor OLs. Unless you think Matt Ryan was bad for three years or so and then has been re-animated with the poltergeist of Otto Graham this year you have to understand that a team needs more than a QB, even if the QB they have is very good. http://www.footballdb.com/stats/qb-records.html
P51 Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 To me he has been totally hung out to dry by an incompetent organisation incapable of putting pieces around him. His offensive line has been a mess, his running game inconsistent, their defense MIA and his only genuine top flight weapon constantly injured. Drew Brees has only won more than 7 games once in 5 years - he is still elite. Talent around every quarterback not name Brady or P. Manning (not even sure I have Rodgers there to be honest Green Bay has always given him a line and weapons) matters. I've watched plenty Phil Rivers the last two seasons. I don't even think he was bad last year..... he was forcing throws in the 4th Qrtr a lot because they were always behind (9 of his 21 INTs were in the 4th) but for the same people who make excuses about Tyrod's weapons to castigate Rivers for the Chargers only winning 5 games is incredible. His top receiver last year went into the season with TWO NFL receptions to his name. Another point worth making is that Rivers left the field with the Chargers in the lead multiple times - the defense couldn't top anyone... and that is without mentioning the game against the Raiders where Rivers led them down the field for a game tying chip shot FG as time expired only for the special teams to bungle it and fumble the snap. Not even close for me. Rivers is still a top 6 or 7 Quarterback. . BIll, this and the following are fantastic posts! Adding context to the situation that most simply lack, if I had the time to go back and find similar ones I had regarding this topic in a similar thread I would. I did a little analysis then and showed how Eli and Big Ben are HOF'ers yet Rivers career stats were better or similar in many key categories. Rivers has not had the benefit of things like a quality organization around him or a oline coach who can turn water into wine (http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/01/new-england-patriots-offensive-line-coach-dante-scarnecchia-super-bowl-51-nfl), but hey Brady can do it on his own... Rivers is still an top flight QB IMO as well, with next to no chance he ever comes here, the Bills would be instant contenders and with the offensive firepower now, his record would resemble those of the pre-2010 Chargers many here keep documenting. While just a dream, Rivers throwing to Sammy (hopefully healthy) and company would be a dream come true for me as a fan, open receivers being seen and accurately thrown too, the middle of the field being utilized, an modern passing game with the running game to support it... Oh my... While its not going to happen and Rivers will in all likely hood retire in SoCal, I have a hard time believing Rivers to Buffalo would be anything short of a miracle upgrade at QB even if only for a short while. He has been on some bad teams since 2010. If you put Rivers on this team we are a playoff team. No question about it in my mind. The Bills are way more talented than the Chargers. I might take maybe 4 of their guys on defense and possibly 2 on offense (aside from Rivers) over ours. If people want reasons why the Chargers haven't been good there are lots and lots of them. I challenge anyone to go back and watch their tape from the last 2 years and say one of those reasons is Rivers. He remains the best thing about that team (though I'll give Bosa his props... he is 2nd). I can't imagine a single non-Bills fan who has looked at the tape would want Tyrod over Rivers. Agreed again. I understand and respect your position, I just disagree based on the players right now. Everyone's got their stat, I personally really like ANY/A for QB performance. Generally speaking, if over the course of a season your ANY/A is 7 or higher it was a really good year. In Rivers' 11 years starting, he's broken the 7.0 mark 4 times (over 8.0 twice!). Unfortunately, he's only done it once since 2010. Tyrod has been a starter for 2 years, and he broke 7 once so far. For reference I'll give you the guys who've met this mark the past 2 years. 2016: Matt Ryan Tom Brady Dak Prescott Kirk Cousins Drew Brees Aaron Rodgers Derek Carr Marcus Mariota 2015: Carson Palmer Andy Dalton Russell Wilson Tom Brady Drew Brees Cam Newton Ben Roethlisberger Kirk Cousins Tyrod Taylor Yet he is 9th all time career wise ahead of multiple superbowl champs and hall of famers. He has only fallen under 6 once in his career as a starter. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_adj_net_yds_per_att_career.htm
GunnerBill Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 Exactly this. He won't come. It won't happen. And there are reasons not to want Rivers, basically age and the state of the Bills roster which almost certainly won't be good enough to compete for a title till Rivers is about ready to retire. Not to mention how prohibitive the bounty the Chargers would demand if they could somehow hypnotize Rivers into not voiding a trade to Buffalo. But right now he's still running a pass game at a much higher level than Tyrod. Yep there are reasons not to be excited about trading for him, no doubt. I just don't see reasons for preferring TT all things being equal. As for where we would be with him.... I think we would have as much chance of losing to the Patriots in the Championship game as anyone else in the AFC.
oldmanfan Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 We all realize this is a hypothetical of course. Rivers isn't going anywhere. Would I prefer Rivers to TT? Yes. But what it would cost in trade would likely not be worth the gain. You'd either have to give up good players on the roster or a significant number of picks. So if you had to trade say Sammy and TT and maybe a first round pick I would say Rivers is not giving you that value back. The offense was ranked in the top ten last year, and although you can't compare given the new OC it seems Dennison will try to do things like rollouts etc to free TT up some. To me the Bills getting to the playoffs is more on the D improving than the O. So while I think Rivers is a better QB than TT I would say the benefit may not equal the loss.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 Yet he is 9th all time career wise ahead of multiple superbowl champs and hall of famers. He has only fallen under 6 once in his career as a starter. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_adj_net_yds_per_att_career.htm Yes, as I said Rivers had some phenomenal years from 2008-2010. Tyrod clearly doesn't meet the minimum requirements yet, but his ANY/A in his 2 years as a starter is 6.55, which would tie him for 14th on that list with Dan Marino (ANY/A doesn't do past QBs any justice with the way the rules have changed). He's only started 2 years, he was over 7 once, and despite last year being 'awful' he still wasn't below 6. Tyrod is nowhere near '08-'10 Rivers, but he's pretty comparable to '15-'16 Rivers, especially when you consider he's 9 years younger. Just my opinion.
GunnerBill Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 He's only started 2 years, he was over 7 once, and despite last year being 'awful' he still wasn't below 6. Tyrod is nowhere near '08-'10 Rivers, but he's pretty comparable to '15-'16 Rivers, especially when you consider he's 9 years younger. Just my opinion. Nobody has said he was awful in 2016.... but there were plenty here making excuses for Tyrod based on who he was throwing to..... Rivers primary receiver was a 2nd year UDFA with 2 catches to his name prior to last year and who is already back down the depth chart through OTAs this year. His numbers are absolutely influenced by what is around him.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 Nobody has said he was awful in 2016.... but there were plenty here making excuses for Tyrod based on who he was throwing to..... Rivers primary receiver was a 2nd year UDFA with 2 catches to his name prior to last year and who is already back down the depth chart through OTAs this year. His numbers are absolutely influenced by what is around him. I wouldn't say nobody, but probably nobody worth listening to. So neither had quality pass catchers throughout the year, and Rivers ranked 16 (6.37) vs Tyrod at 18 (6.07). And in '15 Rivers ranked 14 (6.45) vs Tyrod at 9 (7.10). Is that not 'pretty comparable'? And FWIW, idk how much you use ANY/A, but it doesn't factor in any rushing stats.
GunnerBill Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 I wouldn't say nobody, but probably nobody worth listening to. So neither had quality pass catchers throughout the year, and Rivers ranked 16 (6.37) vs Tyrod at 18 (6.07). And in '15 Rivers ranked 14 (6.45) vs Tyrod at 9 (7.10). Is that not 'pretty comparable'? And FWIW, idk how much you use ANY/A, but it doesn't factor in any rushing stats. I don't think any single stat tells the whole story. You need a breadth of quantitative and then you need to overlay with what you seen on tape. I always think tape > everything to be honest when it comes to Quarterback play but that doesn't mean I ignore the data where it can be illuminating.
P51 Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 (edited) Yes, as I said Rivers had some phenomenal years from 2008-2010. Tyrod clearly doesn't meet the minimum requirements yet, but his ANY/A in his 2 years as a starter is 6.55, which would tie him for 14th on that list with Dan Marino (ANY/A doesn't do past QBs any justice with the way the rules have changed). He's only started 2 years, he was over 7 once, and despite last year being 'awful' he still wasn't below 6. Tyrod is nowhere near '08-'10 Rivers, but he's pretty comparable to '15-'16 Rivers, especially when you consider he's 9 years younger. Just my opinion. I wouldn't say nobody, but probably nobody worth listening to. So neither had quality pass catchers throughout the year, and Rivers ranked 16 (6.37) vs Tyrod at 18 (6.07). And in '15 Rivers ranked 14 (6.45) vs Tyrod at 9 (7.10). Is that not 'pretty comparable'? And FWIW, idk how much you use ANY/A, but it doesn't factor in any rushing stats. Great point on Dan Marino, one I use regularly in the "Superbowl Champ" qualifier for HOF arguement, and I am with you on the ANY/A not doing past QB's justice. JMO, but I would add a full point to the QB's of rules past to normalize the stat myself. Personally, I dont think Tyrod is "awful", I think he's limited passing the ball, but throws a great deep ball, who obviously is a great runner. The Tyrod 15' vs. 16' I think further illustrates the context point, in 15' with a more healthy Watkins arguably being the best receiver in the league for 9 games that year and playing for most of the season reasonably healthy helped Tyrod be a better QB to the affect of a 1+ pt ANY/A increase vs. 2016. Watkins ability to stretch the field and play into Tyrod's strengths clearly benefited Taylor IMO with regards to the ANY/A stat, as did having a great run game and competent (for the most part) offensive line. The stat also does not include things like team rushing ranks/efficiency which in 2015 the Chargers were second to last and the Bills were first (thanks in part to Tyrod for sure), Buffalo also happened to be closer to the playoffs that year, and if my memory serves me the Chargers had the worst ranked offensive line by PFF (FWIW and Buffalos was top a top 10 unit that year according to PFF, FWIW). No offensive line and no running game is hard for any QB to overcome and put up big passing metrics. Interesting to me, in 2016 the Chargers run game moved up to 26th overall from 31st and their offensive line ranking (PFF FWIW) moved up from 32nd to 31st and he lost his top 2 receivers during the pre-season? and week 1? in Allen and Johnson. Run game and blocking improved very slightly, but passing game takes a hit when your #1 and #2 WR's go down. Edited June 9, 2017 by P51
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 I don't think any single stat tells the whole story. You need a breadth of quantitative and then you need to overlay with what you seen on tape. I always think tape > everything to be honest when it comes to Quarterback play but that doesn't mean I ignore the data where it can be illuminating. Here's some tape for everyone... I wonder what people would think if Tyrod threw 4 picks on the final 5 possessions of the 4th quarter. One on the 2 yardline on 2nd and goal. And this pick six that legit cost them the game. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IzpSBGvaWU
mannc Posted June 9, 2017 Posted June 9, 2017 Here's some tape for everyone... I wonder what people would think if Tyrod threw 4 picks on the final 5 possessions of the 4th quarter. One on the 2 yardline on 2nd and goal. And this pick six that legit cost them the game. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IzpSBGvaWU Rivers accounted for TWENTY more turnovers than Tyrod in 2016. If you don't think all those turnovers were a significant factor in SD's 5-11 record, you'd be wrong. I don't think any single stat tells the whole story. You need a breadth of quantitative and then you need to overlay with what you seen on tape. I always think tape > everything to be honest when it comes to Quarterback play but that doesn't mean I ignore the data where it can be illuminating. the I have a lot of respect for your opinion, but when it comes to QB play, I don't agree that the tape is more important than the numbers, which is not to say that the numbers should be considered out of context. IMO, Tyrod, who is an unconventional QB, will usually fare poorly when "eye-tested" against someone like Rivers, who looks and plays far more like a conventional, pocket QB.
BringBackOrton Posted June 10, 2017 Author Posted June 10, 2017 (edited) Rivers accounted for TWENTY more turnovers than Tyrod in 2016. If you don't think all those turnovers were a significant factor in SD's 5-11 record, you'd be wrong. I have a lot of respect for your opinion, but when it comes to QB play, I don't agree that the tape is more important than the numbers, which is not to say that the numbers should be considered out of context. IMO, Tyrod, who is an unconventional QB, will usually fare poorly when "eye-tested" against someone like Rivers, who looks and plays far more like a conventional, pocket QB. You didn't even watch Rivers play, so I would hope not. Edited June 10, 2017 by jmc12290
B-Large Posted June 10, 2017 Posted June 10, 2017 He'd retire before he moved his big family- nothing personal against Buffalo. If he were to move, I assume it's not to one of the thre punching bags of the AFCE that are vying for 2nd at best in the division. If he were to move, I have think Denver would be a make sense landing spot- beefed up Defensive line to compliment elite talent at the edges and secondary, and an offense that just needs to move the ball and not make a lot of mistakes but has some good talent at skill positions.
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