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Posted

As Bills fans, we tend to put down the off season articles predicting a bad season for our favorite team....we denigrate them and brush them off by either attacking the writer or simply going with " he has not paid attention to the moves we've made ".....

 

The problem with all that is those articles have been spot on for 17 years now...they are right and we're not.....I'm tired of being wrong.....I am optimistic with our new staff and I see the playoffs in 2018 but a really bad season this year would be a hard blow to my already fragile confidence.....

Posted

As Bills fans, we tend to put down the off season articles predicting a bad season for our favorite team....we denigrate them and brush them off by either attacking the writer or simply going with " he has not paid attention to the moves we've made ".....

 

The problem with all that is those articles have been spot on for 17 years now...they are right and we're not.....I'm tired of being wrong.....I am optimistic with our new staff and I see the playoffs in 2018 but a really bad season this year would be a hard blow to my already fragile confidence.....

 

 

I don't believe the odds of the Bills making the playoffs are good.

 

But I also don't believe that ESPN has created a good predictive model. Not when it completely ignore coaching changes. That would be like climatologists creating a rough-and-ready weather model that completely ignores ocean currents yet purports to accurately predict the weather.

 

If you want to be accurate, you have to account for all the meaningful variables.

Posted

I don't believe the odds of the Bills making the playoffs are good.

 

But I also don't believe that ESPN has created a good predictive model. Not when it completely ignore coaching changes. That would be like climatologists creating a rough-and-ready weather model that completely ignores ocean currents yet purports to accurately predict the weather.

 

If you want to be accurate, you have to account for all the meaningful variables.

 

I'll trust Vegas over ESPN all day long.

Posted

Like I said I dont want to dismiss it......but I wonder if these formula's incorporate the fact that the defense is about to make a scheme change back to when it was 5th best in the league.

 

I totally understand the veteran losses being incorporated into the formula

Small detail you forgot is that 7 defensive starters from the top 5 D we had are no longer here.

 

So why would you think switching to a 4-3 again would magically make our D top 5 again?

Posted (edited)

Small detail you forgot is that 7 defensive starters from the top 5 D we had are no longer here.

 

So why would you think switching to a 4-3 again would magically make our D top 5 again?

 

Bc we have invested in players that may be able to compensate for those losses.

 

Front 4 are mostly the same in Hughes, K. Williams, Dareus, and now we have Shaq Lawson. You've got Reggie Ragland coming back from an unfortunate injury last year. We have Lorenzo Alexander. Darby to replace Gilmore (McKelvin was #2 CB in 2014). Tre'Davious White is coming in as a rookie, so we will see. I see weakness at safety, but they tried to address in Micah Hyde, but otherwise we have a decent unit in my opinion.

 

Let's see them play in the right system before we say they can't be good.

Edited by What a Tuel
Posted

Small detail you forgot is that 7 defensive starters from the top 5 D we had are no longer here.

 

So why would you think switching to a 4-3 again would magically make our D top 5 again?

but key pieces to that D ARE still here

 

Not really looking for a magical move from the 20's to 5......if they got to 10 you would see a huge difference

Posted

but key pieces to that D ARE still here

 

Not really looking for a magical move from the 20's to 5......if they got to 10 you would see a huge difference

 

Oh, good. We have key pieces to the D who gave up 64,421.7 yards in two Miami games and a Pittsburgh game.

 

Color me excited.

Posted

 

Oh, good. We have key pieces to the D who gave up 64,421.7 yards in two Miami games and a Pittsburgh game.

 

Color me excited.

Well....we also SUBTRACTED some key pieces to our defensive demise last year wouldnt you say? Namely the Ryans and their outdated, no player buy in, having DT's in pass coverage.

 

Lets see Miami run that ball with Ragland in the middle of that D

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