DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 I've posted numerous times that I like all of the hirings. However this roster is maybe average at best without good depth. Lots of work to do. And yes , I place a team that has made the playoffs numerous times, despite losing every playoff game, ahead of us. How could you not? I'll stick with my 7-9. stick to it bud, stick to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 I dont want to just dismiss it....but it would be nice if he could include where he came up with the data for his formula? My guess is he has factors like coaching staff turnover, veterans lost versus gained, last years starters lost versus gained, the draft grade, how the team did last season adjusting by the strength of schedule versus the schedule this year, other teams in the division and so on. Probably not that hard to come up with a reasonable model. But the nature of football and the unpredictable nature of injuries in such a violent game makes any model vulnerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 (edited) This is what analytics guys like Burke do. Pseudo-science. It looks great all dressed up in high level math. But how does an analytics guy accurately include new coaches and new schemes into his equations? He either doesn't (which is a huge limitation of the approach) or he does (and wanders deeply into the woods of subjectivity). "Millions of data points dating back to 2006 are used to learn from the past to predict the future. This rigorous process requires a thorough exploration of the available information and the testing of many hypotheses... the process is extremely objective and data-driven.... For advanced statistically minded folks, I'd like to reassure them how rigorous the model is under the hood. It was built with cross-validated data sets and fully respects the uncertainties and covariance among the inputs." This is intellectual sports nonsense. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/13539941/how-espn-nfl-football-power-index-was-developed-implemented Edited June 2, 2017 by hondo in seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 @nflnetwork Ready to make some noise in the AFC East? Are the Bills on or off the playoff radar in 2017? http://on.nfl.com/UB1JkO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Gun Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 After 7 game im my opinion I think we are actually having hope for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 You are entitled to your opinion My guess is he has factors like coaching staff turnover, veterans lost versus gained, last years starters lost versus gained, the draft grade, how the team did last season adjusting by the strength of schedule versus the schedule this year, other teams in the division and so on. Probably not that hard to come up with a reasonable model. But the nature of football and the unpredictable nature of injuries in such a violent game makes any model vulnerable. Which would be viable but he doesnt give them. The coaching staff turnover? If it was a disorientated as rumors have reported.....we might actually GAIN some cohesiveness and structure Lost starters? A real arguement...the youth must show it isnt going to be a problem Strength of schedule? I look at that schedule and see 10 possible wins despite playing some good teams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Serious question - If thinking before camp even starts that there may still be hope for the season not even halfway through the schedule is a laughable concept, why are you a fan? Seems like masochism. Do you enjoy Bills games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Joshin' Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Pseudo-science. It looks great all dressed up in high level math. But how does an analytics guy accurately include new coaches and new schemes into his equations? He either doesn't (which is a huge limitation of the approach) or he does (and wanders deeply into the woods of subjectivity). "Millions of data points dating back to 2006 are used to learn from the past to predict the future. This rigorous process requires a thorough exploration of the available information and the testing of many hypotheses... the process is extremely objective and data-driven.... For advanced statistically minded folks, I'd like to reassure them how rigorous the model is under the hood. It was built with cross-validated data sets and fully respects the uncertainties and covariance among the inputs." This is intellectual sports nonsense. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/13539941/how-espn-nfl-football-power-index-was-developed-implemented Excellent post. The NFL is too complex and dynamic to model without a high bias. The bias is his opinion wrapped in pseudo stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilcoam Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 The interesting thing about all the off season predictions is does anybody ever go back and see how correct or incorrect they are, its the same with message board prognosis, without knowing that, its hard to react to the predictions I do know the Bills message boards I belong too mostly talk about what a great off season we've had so fans surely think we are winning more games than last year, or at least the same, and not the 4-6 games the media, pundits, and Vegas predict After-all a great off season would equate to winning more games, as it's illogically impossible to both have a great off season and lose more, unless of course the collective acumen of local fans has been overtaken by kool aid and hype and in fact we are not having as good as an off season as folks claim, and in fact HC Sean moves have not improved the team, short term jc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Serious question - If thinking before camp even starts that there may still be hope for the season not even halfway through the schedule is a laughable concept, why are you a fan? Seems like masochism. Do you enjoy Bills games? good question, you may of hit the nail on the head. either that or it's just a piss poor attempt at trolling...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 The interesting thing about all the off season predictions is does anybody ever go back and see how correct or incorrect they are, its the same with message board prognosis, without knowing that, its hard to react to the predictions I do know the Bills message boards I belong too mostly talk about what a great off season we've had so fans surely think we are winning more games than last year, or at least the same, and not the 4-6 games the media, pundits, and Vegas predict After-all a great off season would equate to winning more games, as it's illogically impossible to both have a great off season and lose more, unless of course the collective acumen of local fans has been overtaken by kool aid and hype and in fact we are not having as good as an off season as folks claim, and in fact HC Sean moves have not improved the team, short term jc I've not seen much of that. Based on individual game spreads Vegas has us favored in 7 of our games, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 (edited) My guess is he has factors like coaching staff turnover, veterans lost versus gained, last years starters lost versus gained, the draft grade, how the team did last season adjusting by the strength of schedule versus the schedule this year, other teams in the division and so on. Probably not that hard to come up with a reasonable model. But the nature of football and the unpredictable nature of injuries in such a violent game makes any model vulnerable. Which would be viable but he doesnt give them. The coaching staff turnover? If it was a disorientated as rumors have reported.....we might actually GAIN some cohesiveness and structure Lost starters? A real arguement...the youth must show it isnt going to be a problem Strength of schedule? I look at that schedule and see 10 possible wins despite playing some good teams Being Bills fans, we can say McD and company almost cannot be worse than what we had. But, Burke is not a Bills fan. And McD is a rookie, the staff and structure are all new and untested, and to use your term, there is no cohesiveness now because there cannot be any. You see 10 possible wins. I happen to see about 8. There are others that see fewer, and some more. Again, we are Bills fans. But to most objective observers (and models) the schedule appears to be harder this year than last. His model is his model and he chooses not to disclose what his data points are. We can choose to consider it, or look for one written by The Senator that says the Bills are a lock for 19-0. It's the offseason Edited June 2, 2017 by CodeMonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Being Bills fans, we can say McD and company almost cannot be worse than what we had. But, Burke is not a Bills fan. And McD is a rookie, the staff and structure and all new and untested, and to use your term, there is no cohesiveness now because there cannot be any. You see 10 possible wins. I happen to see about 8. There are others that see fewer, and some more. Again, we are Bills fans. But to most objective observers (and models) the schedule appears to be harder this year than last. His model is his model and he chooses not to disclose what his data points are. We can choose to consider it, or look for one written by The Senator that says the Bills are a lock for 19-0. It's the offseason I just wonder if the most "objective" observers actually follow the team enough to give a informed opinion.....seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Senator is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gunsgoodtime Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Sounds about right. Lol at the chances of winning the division. Like one of my favorite Metallica songs, Sad but True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 (edited) ......so prove 'em wrong or mail in 16 forfeits....any other suggestions?......"under the radar" works just fine IMO............ Edited June 2, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Like I said I dont want to dismiss it......but I wonder if these formula's incorporate the fact that the defense is about to make a scheme change back to when it was 5th best in the league. I totally understand the veteran losses being incorporated into the formula To be fair, from that unit we have lost an all pro end, and pro bowl corner (heck, is there a single player from that back 7 that's expected to start?) and though it'll be a 43 it's not the same scheme. But otherwise it's practically the same guys doing the same thing so we will probably be able to pencil in those results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Gun Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 good question, you may of hit the nail on the head. either that or it's just a piss poor attempt at trolling...? I don't drink the kool aid like you suckers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 I don't drink the kool aid like you suckers. you don't do a good job at trolling either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobilz Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 What does Doris Burke know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts