Who/What Do You Trust for weather?

[boyst]

This time of year I am scouring sites for weather and using the best guesses of what I know about weather to determine what I am going to do to make hay.

 

Every site (WeatherBug, Accuweather, Weather.com, Weather.gov, local news, WunderGround, Farmers Alamanac, etc) is always subtly different. This recent outlook has weather for Sunday on some sites as 90% rain on Sunday whilst others have 30%. It infuriates me.

 

So, who do you trust for weather and why?

[Fan in San Diego]

San Diego County uses NOAH

[Mike in Horseheads]

I like Accuweather and use their app. They seem to nail snow storms a lot closer than NWS.

[Buffaloed in Pa]

My bones ,lower back. Old Arty tells me alot.

[The Poojer]

i have a window that predicts the weather perfectly

[RaoulDuke79]

I've come to the conclusion that anything more than 3 days out is just speculation.

[KD in CA]

Now that I live in the SF Bay Area: no one.

[Augie]

I look out the window, then step out on the porch.

 

I prefer weatherbug to weather.com. But it's new to me, so maybe I'm off?

[/dev/null]

Haruspices

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

National Weather Service

[MarkyMannn]

If I wash my car it will rain

[DC Tom]

I do my own predictions from the Unisys surface map and Sterling weather radar.

 

Of course.

[frostbitmic]

The Weather Channel .... Specifically AMHQ .... Specifically Jen Carfagno

 

I'd trust that sprite any day of the year.

[boyst]

I do my own predictions from the Unisys surface map and Sterling weather radar.

 

Of course.

conrad hill township, lexington nc, 27292.... please, prey tell.... whats it gonna do?!

[SoTier]

I use Intellicast on the PC and 4Warn Weather on my phone, preferring Intellicast because it's more specific to Jamestown and the Southern Tier. 4Warn will give weather alerts for Jamestown & Chautauqua County, but its forecasts seem more geared for the immediate Buffalo area, and Jamestown is 80 miles south. In some parts of the country, there might not often be all that much difference in climate over 80 miles but in western New York/northwest PA it is because of the lakes, especially Erie, and the changes in latitude and elevation. It's most noticeable during the winter, of course, because of WNY's lake-effect snow storms but you can see it in temperatures, first and last frost dates, etc. The lakes and hills create lots of microclimates. My gardener friends in Dunkirk/Fredonia can grow lots of plants I can't on my hill in Jamestown.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

iPhone weather app

[boyst]

I use Intellicast on the PC and 4Warn Weather on my phone, preferring Intellicast because it's more specific to Jamestown and the Southern Tier. 4Warn will give weather alerts for Jamestown & Chautauqua County, but its forecasts seem more geared for the immediate Buffalo area, and Jamestown is 80 miles south. In some parts of the country, there might not often be all that much difference in climate over 80 miles but in western New York/northwest PA it is because of the lakes, especially Erie, and the changes in latitude and elevation. It's most noticeable during the winter, of course, because of WNY's lake-effect snow storms but you can see it in temperatures, first and last frost dates, etc. The lakes and hills create lots of microclimates. My gardener friends in Dunkirk/Fredonia can grow lots of plants I can't on my hill in Jamestown.

i live in an area that is quite unique. the city which is nearest lies 100' lower than i with smaller valley's in between and a river bed to the south. to the north is thomasville and a valley corridor that it resides in until it reaches High Point, which is, as you guess a high point. weather funnels either side of me making it less likely i see rain when they predict rain. it drives me nuts.

[LeGOATski]

Those percentages are based off the area they're forecasting for. I'm not sure if they tell you their exact forecast area, but it would be a helpful context.

 

90% of the area will get rain.

30% of the area will get rain.

 

So, based on the area, your exact location could be under a 0% section. You get what I'm saying?

 

You need to actually look at the combined model graphic in order to see exactly where the rain is forecast to be.

 

I'm not sure if Accuweather, or whatever you use, provides a graphic like that. Meteorologists can be much more precise and accurate when doing just a point forecast, as opposed to an area forecast.

The hourly graphical forecast provided by the NWS may be much more helpful for you: https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/bufHourlyDay.php?period=3#tabs

[/dev/null]

conrad hill township, lexington nc, 27292.... please, prey tell.... whats it gonna do?!

Tom's weather machine predicts a 100% chance of idiot

[boyst]

Tom's weather machine predicts a 100% chance of idiot

are you planning to come visit?

Those percentages are based off the area they're forecasting for. I'm not sure if they tell you their exact forecast area, but it would be a helpful context.

 

90% of the area will get rain.

30% of the area will get rain.

 

So, based on the area, your exact location could be under a 0% section. You get what I'm saying?

 

You need to actually look at the combined model graphic in order to see exactly where the rain is forecast to be.

 

I'm not sure if Accuweather, or whatever you use, provides a graphic like that. Meteorologists can be much more precise and accurate when doing just a point forecast, as opposed to an area forecast.

The hourly graphical forecast provided by the NWS may be much more helpful for you: https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/bufHourlyDay.php?period=3#tabs

it's very important that people realize this. it's amazing how people don't get the % of weather forecast

 

i usually do what tom does and watch the barometric pressures. it helps. the problem with my area of the region is has a very expansive zip code and i reside between two more populated areas so i do not get a great weather forecast. i take waht they say for thomasville and lexington and divide by 3 then flip a coin.