Comp picks! Come get your Comp Picks!!

[thebandit27]

 

 

Not to discourage conversation on the subject.........but to put the comp pick minutia in perspective.......anyone who thinks a 3rd-5th round comp pick is moving the needle AT ALL on a first round QB trade-up is kidding themselves.

 

Comp picks are nice......and I'm all for not being careless with the system.......but cutting useful players to squeeze out a pick that will likely result in a player of the same value......just not until 2-3 years later.......is not sound.

 

Ralph and Littman used to subscribe to the "we can finish last without them" theory about a week before each season when it became clear that a miracle season wasn't in the cards........and I saw first hand how saving some money while losing guys like Dwan Edwards and Langtson Walker had longer term impacts on the organization than expected.

 

Do not cut a better veteran because you think someone who costs 90% less can do the job 50% as well. Comp pick or no comp pick.

Right.

 

My beef was with the offseason approach of signing guys like Ducasse--who counts against the formula and IMO doesn't belong on any roster--leaving them in a spot where this "cut someone to earn a comp pick" idea is even a discussion

[NoSaint]

Right.

 

My beef was with the offseason approach of signing guys like Ducasse--who counts against the formula and IMO doesn't belong on any roster--leaving them in a spot where this "cut someone to earn a comp pick" idea is even a discussion

I'll likewise contribute that I'm not saying that you can never target a player -- but especially through a lot of those mid to lower tier signings guys get to be interchangeable and why not look at a guy that was cut as a standalone pickup instead of giving up a mid round pick for an interchangeable player.

 

Heck, another nuance to the discussion -- if willing to give up the pick to sign them I would think maybe we should be more active trading for vets around the league in general. If we are potentially trading a 3rd for a guy like Holmes, hauschka or poyer are those really the best guys we could get for a similar valued pick, for instance? It's not even just a discussion of free agents available when you are qualifying or on the edge of qualifying for picks

[Kirby Jackson]

I'll likewise contribute that I'm not saying that you can never target a player -- but especially through a lot of those mid to lower tier signings guys get to be interchangeable and why not look at a guy that was cut as a standalone pickup instead of giving up a mid round pick for an interchangeable player.

 

Heck, another nuance to the discussion -- if willing to give up the pick to sign them I would think maybe we should be more active trading for vets around the league in general. If we are potentially trading a 3rd for a guy like Holmes, hauschka or poyer are those really the best guys we could get for a similar valued pick, for instance? It's not even just a discussion of free agents available when you are qualifying or on the edge of qualifying for picks

The Pats have mastered that.

[BADOLBILZ]

Right.

 

My beef was with the offseason approach of signing guys like Ducasse--who counts against the formula and IMO doesn't belong on any roster--leaving them in a spot where this "cut someone to earn a comp pick" idea is even a discussion

 

No doubt.

 

Bizarre signing.

 

I think it's funny how excited people were about that extra 5th rounder the Bills got for MG.......and then how fast the Bills then turned a handful of such highly fan-valued mid-round picks into dust by trading up for guys that nobody would have been surprised to see available at the Bills original drat positions.

 

Draft picks are pretty easy to mess up........and by some metrics nobody has done it better than the Bills in recent years.......so folks will have to color me a skeptic for not getting comp pick crazy.

I'll likewise contribute that I'm not saying that you can never target a player -- but especially through a lot of those mid to lower tier signings guys get to be interchangeable and why not look at a guy that was cut as a standalone pickup instead of giving up a mid round pick for an interchangeable player.

 

Heck, another nuance to the discussion -- if willing to give up the pick to sign them I would think maybe we should be more active trading for vets around the league in general. If we are potentially trading a 3rd for a guy like Holmes, hauschka or poyer are those really the best guys we could get for a similar valued pick, for instance? It's not even just a discussion of free agents available when you are qualifying or on the edge of qualifying for picks

 

The Kony Ealy trade chapped me a bit. The Bills defense is going to be 90% about pass rush and they are razor thin at DE while the Pats got him going into his walk year for jack. Beanesy f*cked us! Must have been too busy trying to code and transmit Panthers draft board info to McDermott.

Edited May 27, 2017 by #BADOL

[NoSaint]

 

No doubt.

 

Bizarre signing.

 

I think it's funny how excited people were about that extra 5th rounder the Bills got for MG.......and then how fast the Bills then turned a handful of such highly fan-valued mid-round picks into dust by trading up for guys that nobody would have been surprised to see available at the Bills original drat positions.

 

Draft picks are pretty easy to mess up........and by some metrics nobody has done it better than the Bills in recent years.......so folks will have to color me a skeptic for not getting comp pick crazy.

Well, regardless of if you think they will maximize the value, I think for the most part we can agree that there is generally a best process or set of best practices

 

A mid rounder isn't going to set the world on fire most likely but it doesn't mean that the team should be neglecting the strategy behind the decisions here. Kind of like the discussion about all the scouts getting fired and then beane having to bring some back-- im not losing sleep but its more red flags about whether things will be getting better. If your getting the easy ones wrong, do you expect to get the hard ones right? I know we have a good bit of overlap in our thoughts about the state of the franchise right now and skepticism about whether we've actually turned the corner and started making consistently wise decisions or not. Time will tell and i certainly hope we start to see more momentum towards a smart and cohesive strategy now that we have a formalized front office.

Edited May 27, 2017 by NoSaint

[Estro]

Estro has already given up.

You're correct, I have, smartly. The Bills over/under total wins in vegas is 6 or 6.5 wins. I happen to think we may go over. I think 7 or 8 wins is probably where we land. Any fan who thinks signing a FB a K or a crappy OL is more valuable than multiple mid round draft picks has no understandinh of how smart teams build a roster.

 

Lets just hope Brandon Beane, Sean McDermott and company understand.....thus far Im concerned McDermott does not, as evidenced by where we currently stand in the comp. pick formula.

[Coach Tuesday]

Right.

 

My beef was with the offseason approach of signing guys like Ducasse--who counts against the formula and IMO doesn't belong on any roster--leaving them in a spot where this "cut someone to earn a comp pick" idea is even a discussion

 

That is my issue as well. A large-breasted cryer like Vlad would've been available in August if they were in need of some...thing like that as Week 1 rolled round. There was NO REASON to sign him when they did, and it demonstrated the same lack of foresight that pervaded Whaley's entire tenure. (And I'm HOPING it was Whaley who pulled the trigger on that one.)

[John from Riverside]

You're correct, I have, smartly. The Bills over/under total wins in vegas is 6 or 6.5 wins. I happen to think we may go over. I think 7 or 8 wins is probably where we land. Any fan who thinks signing a FB a K or a crappy OL is more valuable than multiple mid round draft picks has no understandinh of how smart teams build a roster.

 

Lets just hope Brandon Beane, Sean McDermott and company understand.....thus far Im concerned McDermott does not, as evidenced by where we currently stand in the comp. pick formula.

You are entitled to your opinion

[Saint Doug]

Not to discourage conversation on the subject.........but to put the comp pick minutia in perspective.......anyone who thinks a 3rd-5th round comp pick is moving the needle AT ALL on a first round QB trade-up is kidding themselves.

 

Not to discourage your argument, but just recently a team gave us a 2018 1st AND their 3rd round pick (pick #91) to move up in Round 1. And this team then drafted a QB with the pick. So, it's reall[y/I] inaccurate to say that an extra 3rd round pick next year would be a meaningless asset for an attempt to move up in the 2018 draft. Edited May 28, 2017 by Saint Doug

[QCity]

Any fan who thinks signing a FB a K or a crappy OL is more valuable than multiple mid round draft picks has no understanding of how smart teams build a roster.

 

 

That's pretty much it.

[BADOLBILZ]

Not to discourage your argument, but just recently a team gave us a 2018 1st AND their 3rd round pick (pick #91) to move up in Round 1. And this team then drafted a QB with the pick. So, it's reall[y/I] inaccurate to say that an extra 3rd round pick next year would be a meaningless asset for an attempt to move up in the 2018 draft.

 

First.......there won't be any comp picks handed out that early...........they START at 97.......and they lose value fast.

 

Second.....Mahomes was simply traded for pick value.......Chiefs gave up about what the board said it was worth.........but it doesn't work that way with more universally highly regarded QB prospects.

 

That's when you get pillaged in a trade........in a trade-up into the top 5.......which is presumably what the wait is for........a pick around 100-115 is just a toss-in.

 

Presuming the Bills and Chief pick around the same positions in the draft as this past year......if there are 3 elite QB prospects as projected........it BEGINS with the 3 first round picks and a second to move up.

 

It would make the Sammy deal look like a bargain.

 

Once you've been bent over that far those comp picks are just there to hopefully to get them to stop.

 

Frankly I am not even sure the Chiefs pick is going to be all that valuable in a trade within the top 10......teams simply don't want to move back that far most years.

[John from Riverside]

 

First.......there won't be any comp picks handed out that early...........they START at 97.......and they lose value fast.

 

Second.....Mahomes was simply traded for pick value.......Chiefs gave up about what the board said it was worth.........but it doesn't work that way with more universally highly regarded QB prospects.

 

That's when you get pillaged in a trade........in a trade-up into the top 5.......which is presumably what the wait is for........a pick around 100-115 is just a toss-in.

 

Presuming the Bills and Chief pick around the same positions in the draft as this past year......if there are 3 elite QB prospects as projected........it BEGINS with the 3 first round picks and a second to move up.

 

It would make the Sammy deal look like a bargain.

 

Once you've been bent over that far those comp picks are just there to hopefully to get them to stop.

 

Frankly I am not even sure the Chiefs pick is going to be all that valuable in a trade within the top 10......teams simply don't want to move back that far most years.

Here is to Kansas City having the worst luck ever this year....nothing that would end a player's career......but enough bad luck to make Kansas City fans lamenting the trade

[BADOLBILZ]

Here is to Kansas City having the worst luck ever this year....nothing that would end a player's career......but enough bad luck to make Kansas City fans lamenting the trade

 

I'd love that but as for getting to the top of the draft.......it would be a shock if QB desperate teams Cleveland and NYJ didn't EARN top 3 picks........they are clearly bad teams........so they aren't going to need to trade up much, if at all.

 

There is little guarantee the Bills would even get a crack at the top 3 QB's and I'm not sure trading up for the 4th or 5th best QB in any draft makes much sense. That's how you end up with JP Losman. Gotta' let those picks come TO you.

[GunnerBill]

 

No doubt.

 

Bizarre signing.

 

I think it's funny how excited people were about that extra 5th rounder the Bills got for MG.......and then how fast the Bills then turned a handful of such highly fan-valued mid-round picks into dust by trading up for guys that nobody would have been surprised to see available at the Bills original drat positions.

 

 

 

I'd have been a little surprised to see Zay Jones make it to our original pick.... but I still thought the gap between him and the other receivers wasn't big enough to justify the trade up.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

 

I'd have been a little surprised to see Zay Jones make it to our original pick.... but I still thought the gap between him and the other receivers wasn't big enough to justify the trade up.

 

 

I'm concerned about his ability to get open and how that will mesh with Taylor's hesitance to throw into coverage.

 

Zay Jones may end up with the best hands in the league and he will win a lot of jump balls but not sure he has the whole package and that early in round 2 you are looking for no worse than a 1A WR........that's where they went wrong with Bob Woods........he wasn't a 1A......and he subsequently ended up being nothing more than a rental.

 

I am not cutting McDermott much slack because at this point Bills fans shouldn't have to.........but I admit that TreD White was my favorite CB in the draft and Hyde was my top target for the woeful situation at safety so I can't help but liking some of the moves. I like Zay too but a little later and with another player from this strong draft. The trade-ups I did not like at all.

[Saint Doug]

 

First.......there won't be any comp picks handed out that early...........they START at 97.......and they lose value fast.

 

Second.....Mahomes was simply traded for pick value.......Chiefs gave up about what the board said it was worth.........but it doesn't work that way with more universally highly regarded QB prospects.

 

That's when you get pillaged in a trade........in a trade-up into the top 5.......which is presumably what the wait is for........a pick around 100-115 is just a toss-in.

 

Presuming the Bills and Chief pick around the same positions in the draft as this past year......if there are 3 elite QB prospects as projected........it BEGINS with the 3 first round picks and a second to move up.

 

It would make the Sammy deal look like a bargain.

 

Once you've been bent over that far those comp picks are just there to hopefully to get them to stop.

 

Frankly I am not even sure the Chiefs pick is going to be all that valuable in a trade within the top 10......teams simply don't want to move back that far most years.

There is so much speculation in this post, I don't know where to begin. First, the 3rd round isn't like the 1st round. There's no talent cliff you fall off of after the 10th pick. The difference between the 90th pick and the 100th pick is highly subjective. There's no consensus once you get that far out.

 

The price we'll have to pay depends on who we trade with. A trade with LA is going to look much different than a trade with the 49ers. We just don't know where the cards are going to fall. We can't speculate about the price at this point.

 

Who says we'll have to trade into the Top 5? Again, speculation. There are a number of great QB prospects coming out next year.

 

I don't think anyone on here is going to take it as far as you and speculate the Chiefs pick we received may not even be valuable to us.

 

All I'm saying is that we just don't have enough information yet for us to confidently make any decision on whether a 3rd round pick is valuable or not. We may not need to trade at all. Then we pick an extra player. It's win win. Just because $100 bill exist doesn't mean $10 bills have no value.

Edited May 28, 2017 by Saint Doug

[QCity]

 

All I'm saying is that we just don't have enough information yet for us to confidently make any decision on whether a 3rd round pick is valuable or not.

 

Of course we know the value of the pick. This narrative that we are going to use it in a trade for a QB is just speculation. We have a GM that wants to build through the draft -- every draft pick matters.

 

This scenario is Exhibit A of why you fire your employees on a Friday and don't let them linger around the job for a week. The notion that firing your GM after the draft will now be some new "trend" is one of the silliest things I've read this offseason.

 

The question now becomes how exactly does Beane fix this mess? Ducasse and Davis aren't a problem, I suspect they'll be cut simply due to their performance -- there will probably be at least a dozen better players cut this preseason. But that only gets us back to even. Hauschka and DiMarco aren't going anywhere, those contracts have too much gtd money and dead cap. They can't sit around and pray Blanton qualifies as a CFA. Can they cut a guy like Holmes and still have enough space to sign a replacement? Money is still pretty tight.

[BADOLBILZ]

There is so much speculation in this post, I don't know where to begin. First, the 3rd round isn't like the 1st round. There's no talent cliff you fall off of after the 10th pick. The difference between the 90th pick and the 100th pick is highly subjective. There's no consensus once you get that far out.

 

The price we'll have to pay depends on who we trade with. A trade with LA is going to look much different than a trade with the 49ers. We just don't know where the cards are going to fall. We can't speculate about the price at this point.

 

Who says we'll have to trade into the Top 5? Again, speculation. There are a number of great QB prospects coming out next year.

 

I don't think anyone on here is going to take it as far as you and speculate the Chiefs pick we received may not even be valuable to us.

 

All I'm saying is that we just don't have enough information yet for us to confidently make any decision on whether a 3rd round pick is valuable or not. We may not need to trade at all. Then we pick an extra player. It's win win. Just because $100 bill exist doesn't mean $10 bills have no value.

 

 

1) I get tired of the people who want to call a pick in the 100's a third rounder. How many teams are there? OK, multiply that by 3. That is the end of the third round. A third round comp pick is a 4th round pick from the talent pool available. If the league started adding comp picks after round 1 those picks would be the same talent as the first picks in round 2 are now. They just call the comp picks 3rd/4th/5th for some minor CBA related reasons and to fluff fans of teams that lose free agents while not giving the perception to fans whose teams are at the top of each round that they are being drafted ahead of in later rounds by better teams.

 

2) If they weren't looking to trade up into the top 10, then why not take Mahomes? They reportedly liked him a lot. The only reasonable explanation is that they want a "surer" thing. At least that's what has been sold about this years draft class. I've followed much of this class since they were HS prospects and I see no sure things. But if they perform that well you can bet yourass that they will be going top 5. Guys like Darnold and Rosen are on the radar much more than guys like Goff and Wentz were........and there are some QB desperate teams that project to have more draft equity than the Bills.

 

And YEAH, it's all speculation. That's the point of trading equity now for equity next year..........but you don't trade picks with a consistent playoff team with the assumption that they are going to fall apart and that pick will be better. Chiefs 2016 draft yielded some very impactful talent....anything can happen......but they don't appear to be circling the drain by any means.

[John from Riverside]

 

 

I'm concerned about his ability to get open and how that will mesh with Taylor's hesitance to throw into coverage.

 

Zay Jones may end up with the best hands in the league and he will win a lot of jump balls but not sure he has the whole package and that early in round 2 you are looking for no worse than a 1A WR........that's where they went wrong with Bob Woods........he wasn't a 1A......and he subsequently ended up being nothing more than a rental.

 

I am not cutting McDermott much slack because at this point Bills fans shouldn't have to.........but I admit that TreD White was my favorite CB in the draft and Hyde was my top target for the woeful situation at safety so I can't help but liking some of the moves. I like Zay too but a little later and with another player from this strong draft. The trade-ups I did not like at all.

I am no so sure it is hesitant to throw into coverage as it is chemistry with his receivers......there are receivers that had actual separation that he didnt connect with but they were guys that got pulled off the couch or cast offs from other teams.

 

Personally I will be ok if Zay ends up being the injury free Robert Woods.....

[BADOLBILZ]

I am no so sure it is hesitant to throw into coverage as it is chemistry with his receivers......there are receivers that had actual separation that he didnt connect with but they were guys that got pulled off the couch or cast offs from other teams.

 

Personally I will be ok if Zay ends up being the injury free Robert Woods.....

 

 

I think there were plenty of instances where he didn't throw the ball.....or even look at.,,,,an open receiver because he didn't trust them. Guys like Tate and Powell are bad receivers.......it may be easy to JUSTIFY throwing them the ball 10 times per game but I don't think Tyrod is about having excuses to give.

 

He is cautious and I think he'd rather take a 5 yard gain on a scramble on second down than make certain throws to bad receivers.

 

You could call a lack of trust a lack of chemistry.......they certainly didn't have a lot of experience together.......but I just think he was NEVER going to get chemistry with some of those dudes.

 

There was some element of coverage disguise that lead to a lot of open receivers never being looked at.......but those tendencies that defenses picked up were rooted in a poor WR corps, IMO.

 

That's where playmakers come in.......a defense can disguise Taylor into throwing into a bad coverage matchup to Watkins and still lose two ways.....either by Sammy winning the throw or Tyrod tucking and exploiting a soft spot caused by a heavy focus on coverage.

 

With a healthy Watkins, Woods and Clay I think Tyrod's passing numbers would have been improved over 2015 rather than diminished.