Comp picks! Come get your Comp Picks!!

[BADOLBILZ]

I assume when you mean best run teams you are talking about the patriots

 

I thought we have already made some very patriot like moves this offseason.....especially the trade down aquiring the additional 1st rounder next year.

 

I think you could point out any offseason and say "there is something the Patriots would do".

 

Like trading back in round 1!

 

But the problem is that for every Patriot-like tactic, the Bills also have multiple Billsy-tactics.

 

Like trading UP in rounds 2 and 3!

 

I know we are desperate for better results but the Sean McDermott hasn't exactly flipped the script at OBD........he warrants skepticism.....hopefully he won't Seamus further.....we've had enough of that.

Edited May 27, 2017 by #BADOL

[John from Riverside]

 

I think you could point out any offseason and say "there is something the Patriots would do".

 

Like trading back in round 1!

 

But the problem is that for every Patriot-like tactic, the Bills also have multiple Billsy-tactics.

 

Like trading UP in rounds 2 and 3!

 

I know we are desperate for better results but the Sean McDermott hasn't exactly flipped the script at OBD........he warrants skepticism.....hopefully he won't Seamus further.....we've had enough of that.

I think those trade ups will ultimately be judged on how well OT Dawkins does

 

To me Jay Jones was a no brainer....that kid is gonna be a fricken stud and early.........but the trade up for Dawkins was very costly in what was supposed to be a weak OL draft. if Dawkins takes that RT spot and shines then McD look pretty good......if not........then it will be questioned

[Kirby Jackson]

Now see I agree with Bado on this

 

For instance...my opinion on Holmes is higher then some I guess.....but I watch a lot of raider's football and he was replaced with legit number 1 receiver talent.....you cant fault Holmes because he is a bla number 1 but could be that guy that gobbles up 3rd option passes....and he BLOCKS.

 

Now...Kirby mentions Godwin....the problem is we dont know what Godwin is gonna do in the NFL....but we know what Holmes is gonna do and he is gonna do it NOW not 2 years down the road.

 

Everyone has their right to their opinion on this and Im not saying anyone is wrong....I will say that I am not wanting a rebiuld on this team this year....play like your actually trying to win because who knows......

 

We just might

I hear what you are saying and not necessarily advocating to do that. I'm just saying that there is good reason to do it.

 

In terms of Holmes we do know a little of what he is. We know what EJ Manuel is too; that doesn't mean we'd rather have him than a rookie. All that it means is that he's played already, not that he's better. FWIW, I would be surprised if Holmes is better now than Godwin, forget 2 years from now. Godwin was more productive and is a better athlete. The Bills could use Holmes but he probably isn't a guy moving the needle on a good team. That pick can be used on a player or as currency to secure a player that will, potentially, move the needle.

[BADOLBILZ]

I think those trade ups will ultimately be judged on how well OT Dawkins does

 

To me Jay Jones was a no brainer....that kid is gonna be a fricken stud and early.........but the trade up for Dawkins was very costly in what was supposed to be a weak OL draft. if Dawkins takes that RT spot and shines then McD look pretty good......if not........then it will be questioned

 

John, if Whaley taught anything to Bills fans it should be the importance of the aggregate.

 

Trade-ups always SEEM justified in the moment and teams that draft for need often get favorable initial grades from draftniks.

 

But as Whaley's record shows........when you draft for need you fail in the long term.

 

That's how you end up with the lowest retention rate of draft picks in the NFL.

 

One of Whaley's BEST picks was Ron Darby.......who you and I have discussed before .............and I believe that pick had EVERYTHING to do with the fact that the Bills did not have a first round pick or any perceived needs at the time.

 

Without the weight of need.........the evaluation process is purer.

 

I've made this point before.......the perception of NEED is a teams undoing on draft day.

 

Thurman Thomas, Sam Cowart and Ron Darby.........all second round picks when the Bills had no first rounder and otherwise STACKED rosters.

 

If you treat the draft to patch holes you undermine the league provided parity system by not getting the best available players.

Edited May 27, 2017 by #BADOL

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I think you could point out any offseason and say "there is something the Patriots would do".

 

Like trading back in round 1!

 

But the problem is that for every Patriot-like tactic, the Bills also have multiple Billsy-tactics.

 

Like trading UP in rounds 2 and 3!

 

I know we are desperate for better results but the Sean McDermott hasn't exactly flipped the script at OBD........he warrants skepticism.....hopefully he won't Seamus further.....we've had enough of that.

I can't find the tweet but the Patriots have made like 62 draft trades in the Belicheck era, 22 times they traded down, 21 times they traded up and 19 times they traded the pick for a player. It's something like that.

[BADOLBILZ]

I hear what you are saying and not necessarily advocating to do that. I'm just saying that there is good reason to do it.

 

In terms of Holmes we do know a little of what he is. We know what EJ Manuel is too; that doesn't mean we'd rather have him than a rookie. All that it means is that he's played already, not that he's better. FWIW, I would be surprised if Holmes is better now than Godwin, forget 2 years from now. Godwin was more productive and is a better athlete. The Bills could use Holmes but he probably isn't a guy moving the needle on a good team. That pick can be used on a player or as currency to secure a player that will, potentially, move the needle.

 

Before anyone jumps in and thinks this is a Holmes for Godwin head-up trade.......Holmes isn't going to equate to a third round comp pick.......it's not an apples/apples comparison......losing Gilmore gets you a top 10 in his draft class-type WR prospect like Godwin.

 

That is the reality with Godwin.......he's most likely not actually all that special......even by his own drafts standards.

 

As for the move the needle point I was making.........I disagree that a pick in the 100's is going to do much to move you up in round 1.......the Godwin pick value likely wouldn't even have been enough to move the Bills up for Reggie Ragnuts.

 

I'd go so far as to say sometimes HAVING those extra trade-able mid-round picks is going to be like going into a negotiation with someone knowing that you have more in your pocket to give.

 

Better off playing it like Cliff Huxtable and wearing your most beat up gear to the lot when shopping for a new station wagon.(Leave Theo at home)

 

I honestly think making the picks trade-able is going to help the smarter teams fleece the Bills-ier teams.

Edited May 27, 2017 by #BADOL

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Before anyone jumps in and thinks this is a Holmes for Godwin head-up trade.......Holmes isn't going to equate to a third round comp pick.......it's not an apples/apples comparison......losing Gilmore gets you a top 10 in his draft class-type WR prospect like Godwin.

 

That is the reality with Godwin.......he's most likely not actually all that special......even by his own drafts standards.

 

As for the move the needle point I was making.........I disagree that a pick in the 100's is going to do much to move you up in round 1.......the Godwin pick value likely wouldn't even have been enough to move the Bills up for Reggie Ragnuts.

 

I'd go so far as to say sometimes HAVING those extra trade-able mid-round picks is going to be like going into a negotiation with someone knowing that you have more in your pocket to give.

 

Better off playing it like Cliff Huxtable and wearing your most beat up gear to the lot when shopping for a new station wagon.(Leave Theo at home)

 

I honestly think making the picks trade-able is going to help the smarter teams fleece the Bills-ier teams.

I'm not trying to derail it either but will try to make it out another way. That 3rd round Comp pick can ABSOLUTELY land you a #2 RB as an example. As the roster is currently constructed that role would be more important than a #3 receiver. The dropoff from Shady to any back-up will be steep but you can potentially plug that gap a little with a Kareem White type of player. The gap between that guy and Jonathan Williams is greater than the gap between Holmes and whatever receiver we decide is next on the depth chart. Edited May 27, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[BADOLBILZ]

I can't find the tweet but the Patriots have made like 62 draft trades in the Belicheck era, 22 times they traded down, 21 times they traded up and 19 times they traded the pick for a player. It's something like that.

 

So the Pats are near even down/up ratio and the McDermott era is 1:2 down/up. Knew it. Screwed. Dammit Seamus!

[Kirby Jackson]

 

So the Pats are near even down/up ratio and the McDermott era is 1:2 down/up. Knew it. Screwed. Dammit Seamus!

Ha ha, those numbers were my estimates based on the tweet. It was almost even though in all 3 instances. I always assumed that they were be full of trade backs.

[John from Riverside]

 

John, if Whaley taught anything to Bills fans it should be the importance of the aggregate.

 

Trade-ups always SEEM justified in the moment and teams that draft for need often get favorable initial grades from draftniks.

 

But as Whaley's record shows........when you draft for need you fail in the long term.

 

That's how you end up with the lowest retention rate of draft picks in the NFL.

 

One of Whaley's BEST picks was Ron Darby.......who you and I have discussed before .............and I believe that pick had EVERYTHING to do with the fact that the Bills did not have a first round pick or any perceived needs at the time.

 

Without the weight of need.........the evaluation process is purer.

 

I've made this point before.......the perception of NEED is a teams undoing on draft day.

 

Thurman Thomas, Sam Cowart and Ron Darby.........all second round picks when the Bills had no first rounder and otherwise STACKED rosters.

 

If you treat the draft to patch holes you undermine the league provided parity system by not getting the best available players.

Interesting take

 

Im hoping that the players they took were actually highest on their board and not just need........I dont know at this point.

[BADOLBILZ]

I'm not trying to derail it either but will try to make it out another way. That 3rd round Comp pick can ABSOLUTELY land you a #2 RB as an example. As the roster is currently constructed that role would be more important than a #3 receiver. The dropoff from Shady to any back-up will be steep but you can potentially plug that gap a little with a Kareem White type of player. The gap between that guy and Jonathan Williams is greater than the gap between Holmes and whatever receiver we decide is next on the depth chart.

 

Yeah but good RB's are a dime-a-dozen. LG Blount played on a deal cheaper than Holmes last year, no?

 

And the Bills problem is that they haven't traditionally utilitzed enough of those late dimes on the RB position........then get themselves in a pinch at RB1 and end up over drafting one.

 

That's the road to shitsville that they are on right now.

 

One of those two number 1 picks is even money to be spent on a RB next year, IMO.

[John from Riverside]

oh man i really hope not........no more 1st round running backs

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Yeah but good RB's are a dime-a-dozen. LG Blount played on a deal cheaper than Holmes last year, no?

 

And the Bills problem is that they haven't traditionally utilitzed enough of those late dimes on the RB position........then get themselves in a pinch at RB1 and end up over drafting one.

 

That's the road to shitsville that they are on right now.

 

One of those two number 1 picks is even money to be spent on a RB next year, IMO.

It's certainly possible if they either get a QB with one pick or decide Tyrod is that guy.

 

My Saquon Barkley man crush will be out of control.

[BADOLBILZ]

It's certainly possible if they either get a QB with one pick or decide Tyrod is that guy.

 

My Saquon Barkley man crush will be out of control.

 

Nope, a safety and THEN a running back with Chiefs pick.........gotta' get back to the glory days of Ralph making the selections in round one when the pick was usually a RB or a DB. That would be 3-3.....a trend not a tactic.

 

Ralph loved his instant starters. Why retain those guys when it seems like there's always a good one available in round 1?

 

Are half of all Bills first all-time round picks still RB's and DB's? Whaley was diluting that number Defensive Lineman, WR and that shot at a QB. Craziness! Gotta' get all the way back and make the Bills great again.

[NoSaint]

 

 

Not to discourage conversation on the subject.........but to put the comp pick minutia in perspective.......anyone who thinks a 3rd-5th round comp pick is moving the needle AT ALL on a first round QB trade-up is kidding themselves.

 

Comp picks are nice......and I'm all for not being careless with the system.......but cutting useful players to squeeze out a pick that will likely result in a player of the same value......just not until 2-3 years later.......is not sound.

 

Ralph and Littman used to subscribe to the "we can finish last without them" theory about a week before each season when it became clear that a miracle season wasn't in the cards........and I saw first hand how saving some money while losing guys like Dwan Edwards and Langtson Walker had longer term impacts on the organization than expected.

 

Do not cut a better veteran because you think someone who costs 90% less can do the job 50% as well. Comp pick or no comp pick.

A slight re-framing to your earliest point.... a 3-5 round pick doesn't move the needle on the trade much but if we trade both 1s and a 2 and an early pick next year-- suddenly an extra pick at the end of day 2 might get you some extra warm bodies that can actually contribute when you've spent several picks on one guy. That's still a nice thing to have in the back pocket. A high quality rookie running back at the end of the 3rd might help take some pressure off the qb you trade for and give a transition out of McCoy for instance.

I'm not trying to derail it either but will try to make it out another way. That 3rd round Comp pick can ABSOLUTELY land you a #2 RB as an example. As the roster is currently constructed that role would be more important than a #3 receiver. The dropoff from Shady to any back-up will be steep but you can potentially plug that gap a little with a Kareem White type of player. The gap between that guy and Jonathan Williams is greater than the gap between Holmes and whatever receiver we decide is next on the depth chart.

That's amusing I responded to the early post without reading the rest of the thread and as usual bump to the end and see you making the same point

[Buffalo Barbarian]

http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/28023/how-the-bills-can-tweak-their-roster-to-snag-a-2018-third-round-pick

 

Interesting article (for Rodak). I could see Beane releasing three of our FA signings but maybe not four.

 

Good possibility we get a third round comp pick.

http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/28023/how-the-bills-can-tweak-their-roster-to-snag-a-2018-third-round-pick

 

Interesting article (for Rodak). I could see Beane releasing three of our FA signings but maybe not four.

 

Good possibility we get a third round comp pick.

 

How do the pats get comp picks with all FAs they signed?

[NoSaint]

Or just retain MG and you don't have to use a draft pick on a RB.... But hey, spinning wheels is what we do.👍🏻👍🏻

It was a random example. Could insert all kinds of stuff there.

[Kirby Jackson]

It was a random example. Could insert all kinds of stuff there.

And you'd be getting that guy on a rookie 3rd round contract not a $4M cap hit.

[NoSaint]

And you'd be getting that guy on a rookie 3rd round contract not a $4M cap hit.

Yup. To pretend the pick is worthless is silly though. You can get a contributor there cheaply. Or at least essentially a free swing at one.

[BADOLBILZ]

A slight re-framing to your earliest point.... a 3-5 round pick doesn't move the needle on the trade much but if we trade both 1s and a 2 and an early pick next year-- suddenly an extra pick at the end of day 2 might get you some extra warm bodies that can actually contribute when you've spent several picks on one guy. That's still a nice thing to have in the back pocket. A high quality rookie running back at the end of the 3rd might help take some pressure off the qb you trade for and give a transition out of McCoy for instance.

 

That's amusing I responded to the early post without reading the rest of the thread and as usual bump to the end and see you making the same point

 

Or just retain MG and you don't have to use a draft pick on a RB.... But hey, spinning wheels is what we do.

 

 

Yeah saying we might-could get a rotational RB out of the deal for losing a former high first round pick corner and cutting Andre Holmes to seal the deal doesn't do much for me.

 

I can't speak for you but I think my disagreement with some about Gillislee situation has made it seem like I value RB's.

 

Let's be clear.......MG lead the NFL in yards per attempt since the Bills activated him. Maybe he IS just average and replaceable,....a product of Tyrod/Roman just like all the other backs......but was it worth finding out for the $ they saved or the pick they got?

 

Nope.

 

And that's nothing against Peterman......he might become a good QB and that was a good use of a draft pick because a QB hit is exponentially more valuable than any other hit.......but they traded away multiple picks prior to that which they could have used on Peterman had they maintained MG. And a good running game is a young QB's best friend.

 

These are things that get lost. Sometimes a mid-level, comp-pick-formula-altering free agent that is just passing thru for a year or two on the cheap can provide a service in one season that can bring out the value of other players or actually help the team take an important step forward. It's not as simple as "don't sign that guy, he could cost us an extra draft pick between rounds 5 and 6".

 

I agree that they need to be a lot smarter as an organization.........but I have seen enough instances to know that sometimes in the process of focusing on next year you inadvertently negatively impact your teams future. It's just not that easy.