Comp picks! Come get your Comp Picks!!

[NoSaint]

I dont understand how someone can not like getting free draft picks. How many of you would say no to free money?

Because many of the vocal crowd mocking it don't understand the opportunities to work the system. In March there are a lot of very similar quality guys-- if two are close and you know you are letting a Gilmore walk you obviously get the ones that won't cost a high pick later --- bandit had a good example.

 

Instead it feels like we a year out decide to ride it out (and not extend or trade) with the idea of tag or comp pick in our back pocket and then when the actual offseason comes we don't actually have the short term plan in line to match last year's mid range planning

[John from Riverside]

I just dont understand how people think we are gonna part with Holmes

 

The kid can play....as a number 3 guy? He is gonna be very good

[Kirby Jackson]

I just dont understand how people think we are gonna part with Holmes

 

The kid can play....as a number 3 guy? He is gonna be very good

You have to look at it a little differently. Would you trade Streater and a 3rd for Holmes?

[BADOLBILZ]

Because many of the vocal crowd mocking it don't understand the opportunities to work the system. In March there are a lot of very similar quality guys-- if two are close and you know you are letting a Gilmore walk you obviously get the ones that won't cost a high pick later --- bandit had a good example.

 

Instead it feels like we a year out decide to ride it out (and not extend or trade) with the idea of tag or comp pick in our back pocket and then when the actual offseason comes we don't actually have the short term plan in line to match last year's mid range planning

 

I am a fan who encourages the organization to make the correct decisions on all levels.

 

But it's hard to get worked about comp picks when the team approach to the draft is critically flawed.

 

Whaley drafted for need HEAVILY.......and as a result he had a terrible draft pick retention rate.

 

So what does McDermott do?.........repeat the same mistake, of course.

 

I don't care about the comp picks........McDermott traded two mid-round picks this year to reach up and draft players for need.........he will likely do it again.

 

I mean look at all the people who defended losing Gillislee because they thought the Bills could use that extra pick on a RB........only to have McD trade his earliest 5th rounder to move up.

 

The fact that comp picks are trade-able now is a BAD thing for bad organizations. Really is.

Edited May 27, 2017 by #BADOL

[John from Riverside]

You have to look at it a little differently. Would you trade Streater and a 3rd for Holmes?

I want talent..I think Holmes is better then streater and a 3rd round pick is just buying a lottery ticket

 

but....the bills might be looking at it your way? Streater is just a level below Holmes in my opinion

[GunnerBill]

 

Foresight when it comes to resource allocation and draft picks was never Whaley's forte, and it's a big reason he's unemployed. I'm really hoping Beane has a sounder strategy when it comes to these things.

 

These were McDermott moves.

[Kirby Jackson]

I want talent..I think Holmes is better then streater and a 3rd round pick is just buying a lottery ticket

 

but....the bills might be looking at it your way? Streater is just a level below Holmes in my opinion

He might be a level lower but there isn't a team in the league that wouldn't trade Andre Holmes for a 3rd. Now maybe things will shake out differently but on the surface it's a strong consideration. Chris Godwin was a late 3rd round pick this year. I'd trade Holmes for Godwin yesterday. It's just the type of decision that requires a good bit of thought. It's a strategy that winning organizations subscribe to.

[GunnerBill]

 

There is another way to gain some help that Rodak didn't mention. If Blanton, E.J., or Hunter play enough non-special teams snaps, they can become a CFA and count toward our losses. This would mean cutting 3 of our FA's would get us 2 more picks. It's not that far fetched -- Barry Church is gone in Dallas and the SS position is in flux, Blanton could win the starting job possibly.

 

 

Yep... people keep missing that there is performance element to it. The qualifying rankings now (based purely on $$s) is not the full picture. If Bryant can't behave in Pittsburgh and win people round then I suspect Hunter will get a lot of snaps as a redzone weapon... like he did for us last year.

[stinky finger]

The Packers, Ravens, and Patriots strongly disagree with you

 

The teams outlined above tend to shape their entire offseason approach around acquiring compensatory picks.

 

There's something to be said for having a plan beyond today

 

https://www.google.com/amp/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/02/24/compensatory-picks-are-a-reward-for-smart-teams/amp/

 

 

nahhhh :

 

- live in the moment

- smell the roses

- tomorrow is promised to nobody

- etc

- etc

- etc

[GunnerBill]

I think the possible mishandling of the comp pick strategy this offseason may be in no small part due to the fact that we didn't have a GM. Whaley had clearly lost all power by that stage and maybe McDermott just doesn't understand the system or pay attention to it the way a GM would. Before anyone says "it was bad under Whaley too" the one time in Whaley's reign that we lost valuable pieces in free agency (after 2014) he turned that into two comp picks (a 4th and a 6th or a 7th I forget) in the 2016 draft.

[BADOLBILZ]

The Packers, Ravens, and Patriots strongly disagree with you

 

The teams outlined above tend to shape their entire offseason approach around acquiring compensatory picks.

 

There's something to be said for having a plan beyond today

 

https://www.google.com/amp/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/02/24/compensatory-picks-are-a-reward-for-smart-teams/amp/

 

 

Not to discourage conversation on the subject.........but to put the comp pick minutia in perspective.......anyone who thinks a 3rd-5th round comp pick is moving the needle AT ALL on a first round QB trade-up is kidding themselves.

 

Comp picks are nice......and I'm all for not being careless with the system.......but cutting useful players to squeeze out a pick that will likely result in a player of the same value......just not until 2-3 years later.......is not sound.

 

Ralph and Littman used to subscribe to the "we can finish last without them" theory about a week before each season when it became clear that a miracle season wasn't in the cards........and I saw first hand how saving some money while losing guys like Dwan Edwards and Langtson Walker had longer term impacts on the organization than expected.

 

Do not cut a better veteran because you think someone who costs 90% less can do the job 50% as well. Comp pick or no comp pick.

Edited May 27, 2017 by #BADOL

[John from Riverside]

 

 

Not to discourage conversation on the subject.........but to put the comp pick minutia in perspective.......anyone who thinks a 3rd-5th round comp pick is moving the needle AT ALL on a first round QB trade-up is kidding themselves.

 

Comp picks are nice......and I'm all for not being careless with the system.......but cutting useful players to squeeze out a pick that will likely result in a player of the same value......just not until 2-3 years later.......is not sound.

 

Ralph and Overdorf used to subscribe to the "we can finish last without them" theory about a week before each season when it became clear that a miracle season wasn't in the cards........and I saw first hand how saving some money while losing guys like Dwan Edwards and Langtson Walker had longer term impacts on the organization than expected.

 

Do not cut a better veteran because you think someone who costs 90% less can do the job 50% as well. Comp pick or no comp pick.

Now see I agree with Bado on this

 

For instance...my opinion on Holmes is higher then some I guess.....but I watch a lot of raider's football and he was replaced with legit number 1 receiver talent.....you cant fault Holmes because he is a bla number 1 but could be that guy that gobbles up 3rd option passes....and he BLOCKS.

 

Now...Kirby mentions Godwin....the problem is we dont know what Godwin is gonna do in the NFL....but we know what Holmes is gonna do and he is gonna do it NOW not 2 years down the road.

 

Everyone has their right to their opinion on this and Im not saying anyone is wrong....I will say that I am not wanting a rebiuld on this team this year....play like your actually trying to win because who knows......

 

We just might

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

 

 

Not to discourage conversation on the subject.........but to put the comp pick minutia in perspective.......anyone who thinks a 3rd-5th round comp pick is moving the needle AT ALL on a first round QB trade-up is kidding themselves.

 

Comp picks are nice......and I'm all for not being careless with the system.......but cutting useful players to squeeze out a pick that will likely result in a player of the same value......just not until 2-3 years later.......is not sound.

 

Ralph and Littman used to subscribe to the "we can finish last without them" theory about a week before each season when it became clear that a miracle season wasn't in the cards........and I saw first hand how saving some money while losing guys like Dwan Edwards and Langtson Walker had longer term impacts on the organization than expected.

 

Do not cut a better veteran because you think someone who costs 90% less can do the job 50% as well. Comp pick or no comp pick.

I agree with this 100%.

[Wayne Cubed]

 

 

Not to discourage conversation on the subject.........but to put the comp pick minutia in perspective.......anyone who thinks a 3rd-5th round comp pick is moving the needle AT ALL on a first round QB trade-up is kidding themselves.

 

Comp picks are nice......and I'm all for not being careless with the system.......but cutting useful players to squeeze out a pick that will likely result in a player of the same value......just not until 2-3 years later.......is not sound.

 

Ralph and Littman used to subscribe to the "we can finish last without them" theory about a week before each season when it became clear that a miracle season wasn't in the cards........and I saw first hand how saving some money while losing guys like Dwan Edwards and Langtson Walker had longer term impacts on the organization than expected.

 

Do not cut a better veteran because you think someone who costs 90% less can do the job 50% as well. Comp pick or no comp pick.

Yup.

 

It wasn't that long ago, the Bills were ahead of the Patriots, and in the top 10 for comp picks gained since the comp pick system was started. In fact they aren't that far outside of the top 10 for total picks, I think they are 13th or 14th last I checked.

 

Like you say, I'm all for not being careless but cutting useful veteran players to possibly get the same player 2-3 years later only cheaper, is not sound.

 

Hell, look what BB is doing now, he prefers to sign players he knows can play in this league and gives up 1st round picks to get them.

Edited May 27, 2017 by Wayne Cubed

[BADOLBILZ]

Now see I agree with Bado on this

 

For instance...my opinion on Holmes is higher then some I guess.....but I watch a lot of raider's football and he was replaced with legit number 1 receiver talent.....you cant fault Holmes because he is a bla number 1 but could be that guy that gobbles up 3rd option passes....and he BLOCKS.

 

Now...Kirby mentions Godwin....the problem is we dont know what Godwin is gonna do in the NFL....but we know what Holmes is gonna do and he is gonna do it NOW not 2 years down the road.

 

Everyone has their right to their opinion on this and Im not saying anyone is wrong....I will say that I am not wanting a rebiuld on this team this year....play like your actually trying to win because who knows......

 

We just might

 

 

Yeah draft picks like Godwin are often like new cars........they depreciate FAST when driven off the lot.

 

Holmes was a free agent but he worked his way UP to the value he has..........so it's hard to put his value in perspective versus an unproven mid-round pick like Godwin with a higher draft pedigree.

 

Maybe Godwin becomes a star........or washes out........or disappoints and finds his game with a new team years later like a Zach Brown........but much of Godwin's value is really nothing more than an optimistic projection that could change completely in a manner of a few practices.

 

I remember hearing Chuck Dickerson on WGR saying ON THE DAY of the first Aaron Maybin practice that his heart dropped into his stomach because he immediately knew the guy was awful..................if hype can get you drafted that high when you can't play then we need to realize that draft ratings and slotting aren't that valuable of a tool.

[QCity]

I dont understand how someone can not like getting free draft picks.

 

 

You have to understand we've never had a front office that understood this concept or built a team in this fashion. This is foreign ground for our fanbase, but I can see that we're slowly getting past the snark and learning some sound principles in asset management. Comp picks obtained over a 3-year period are a great barometer to see if your GM is clueless or not. You simply cannot build a team through FA, and that's exactly what we were trying to do.

 

Another thing to note, it's not about trading a 3rd round pick for player X when assessing value. That player or a player comparable to him could be signed easily after May 9th, so it's closer to a 3rd round pick for a guy who is 80% of player X (which makes it even worse). A good rule of thumb is always wait to sign depth. Of course, when you start getting 10 or 11 draft picks for a few years, you are going to find that these "holes" on our team are suddenly disappearing and depth isn't a big issue anymore.

 

Here's some more data from this year's free agency period (as it stands now, could still change). There are 4 teams that lost 5 or more players in FA and are poised to get nothing in return: BUF, JAX, TEN, and CHI. Some pretty poor company to be in. Here are the teams that stand to gain 3+ picks: N.E., CIN, HOU, DAL, OAK, ARI, MIN, and G.B. Five playoff teams that get richer.

 

Green Bay is best example in the league of a team that builds through the draft. In fact, they may take it a bit too far with their aversion to sign free agents. They are slated to get the max of 4 comp pick this year, and with a previous trade, should wind up with 12 (!) draft picks next year.

[QCity]

 

Not to discourage conversation on the subject.........but to put the comp pick minutia in perspective.......anyone who thinks a 3rd-5th round comp pick is moving the needle AT ALL on a first round QB trade-up is kidding themselves.

 

Comp picks are nice......and I'm all for not being careless with the system.......but cutting useful players to squeeze out a pick that will likely result in a player of the same value......just not until 2-3 years later.......is not sound.

 

Ralph and Littman used to subscribe to the "we can finish last without them" theory about a week before each season when it became clear that a miracle season wasn't in the cards........and I saw first hand how saving some money while losing guys like Dwan Edwards and Langtson Walker had longer term impacts on the organization than expected.

 

Do not cut a better veteran because you think someone who costs 90% less can do the job 50% as well. Comp pick or no comp pick.

Cuts have no impact on comp picks.

 

Before anyone says "it was bad under Whaley too" the one time in Whaley's reign that we lost valuable pieces in free agency (after 2014) he turned that into two comp picks (a 4th and a 6th or a 7th I forget) in the 2016 draft.

 

No, that's incorrect, he gave away a "slam dunk" 3rd rounder when we lost Byrd. Ironically and oddly enough, the only time he obtained comp picks was when he went on that spending spree in 2015.

[JaCrispy]

I don't think the pro-comp pick crowd wants to get rid of solid FAs that have a chance to start, but rather depth players that might max out as backup.

 

Furthermore, I do think BADOL makes some very persuasive arguments... the issue that I can't seem to get passed is looking at the two different groups of teams and seeing all of the top run organizations consistently getting comp picks and the poorly run teams not getting any.

 

I have constantly wanted the Bills to mold themselves like the best run teams, so I guess that's where I am at on the issue.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Cuts have no impact on comp picks.

 

 

No, that's incorrect, he gave away a "slam dunk" 3rd rounder when we lost Byrd. Ironically and oddly enough, the only time he obtained comp picks was when he went on that spending spree in 2015.

 

 

Incorrect.......you can cut a player that you had signed that offseason and potentially re-gain comp pick equity.......try to keep up with the thread.

 

My point wrt Dwan and Langston was that cutting a player at the expense of today......to add potential future personnel acquisition chips......whether that is saving a little money(in their case) or to accumulate a comp pick formula equity(like cutting Hauscka or Poyer for instance) can just as easily yield nothing of substance or often leave you varying degrees of worse off in the future.

[John from Riverside]

I don't think the pro-comp pick crowd wants to get rid of solid FAs that have a chance to start, but rather depth players that might max out as backup.

 

Furthermore, I do think BADOL makes some very persuasive arguments... the issue that I can't seem to get passed is looking at the two different groups of teams and seeing all of the top run organizations consistently getting comp picks and the poorly run teams not getting any.

 

I have constantly wanted the Bills to mold themselves like the best run teams, so I guess that's where I am at on the issue.

I assume when you mean best run teams you are talking about the patriots

 

I thought we have already made some very patriot like moves this offseason.....especially the trade down aquiring the additional 1st rounder next year.