My main reason for feeling optimistic going into 2017..

[stuvian]

I really like the optimism and the reasons the OP backs it up with. This is the most optimistic I've been about the organization since the Polian- Butler era. Still we are installing new schemes on both sides of the ball and in my experience those adjustments take close to half a season to internalize. If TT has been doing the offseason work he says he has and is in sync with Dennison then by all means 10 wins is doable. I still think this year's schedule is tough

[Shaw66]

I agree with OP. That's WHY the Bills could be better. However, McD is totally upproven, so it's hard to say for a fact that he WILL be better than Rex. Too many variables.

 

I also agree that strength of schedule is not very useful. In my experience Bills fans at this time of year always say the schedule is tough. You can't tell by looking at last year's record. It's about how good the Bills are, not how good the other teams are. No one plays the Browns four times.

Edited May 21, 2017 by Shaw66

[hondo in seattle]

Why I'm optimistic.

 

Offense. The plays were designed by a run game guru who was not noted for developing productive passing attacks. And the OC was a guy who's entire background was in the run game. Schematically, our passing attack will be much better this year.

 

Defense. Rex, Rob and Dennis Thurman might have all been defensive geniuses. But together they did not put together a cohesive unit that communicated well and played well together. McD and Frazier almost have to be better.

 

Why I'm pessimistic.

 

We have some gaps in our roster. The secondary, in particular worries me. As does our WR corps. Our QB has some well-known limitations.

 

Our run game was insanely effective last season. It's hard to imagine it being as productive this year with a new scheme.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

I agree with OP. That's WHY the Bills could be better. However, McD is totally upproven, so it's hard to say for a fact that he WILL be better than Rex. Too many variables.

 

I also agree that strength of schedule is not very useful. In my experience Bills fans at this time of year always say the schedule is tough. You can't tell by looking at last year's record. It's about how good the Bills are, not how good the other teams are. No one plays the Browns four times.

 

.......McD may be unproven, but Wrecks was ALLEGEDLY proven which turned out to be the biggest heist since the Great Train Robbery.....

[r00tabaga]

Until you see Matt Ryan, Brady 2x, Carr, Jameis, Brees, Luck, Rivers, Cam etc etc etc will be facing us.

Damn, that's pretty rough.

[teef]

Well, that is how vegas sets the W/L O/U. They look at the schedule and break down a teams chances to win each game. Sure, they are sometimes WAY off, but more often then not, their numbers are 1-2 wins off.....and they do that by looking at the teams schedule. Not sure why that's so hard for you to understand. Everyone understands that some teams may go from 12-4 to 6-10. There will also be some teams that go from 6-10 to 12-4 (maybe it will be us), but speaking facts, a teams w/l is predicted by the team itself and the teams that they play. That's not trying too hard, that's reality.

i do get it, that's why i said i completely understand doing it. what i don't get is why people are suddenly predicting 4-5 wins based on the "difficulty" of the schedule. this team isn't that terrible, and the schedule in terms of difficulty is always about the same for a team that hovers at 7-8 wins like the bills do. so yeah...when someone predicts a crushing season based on the schedule, it's trying a bit too hard.

 

 

 

 

I think we are all optimistic about the coaching change. That said, we have a heck of a tough schedule next year.

 

This years competition compared to last years:

 

Oakland (with Carr) = Pittsburgh

K.C. > Baltimore

Denver > Cincinnati

San Diego > Cleveland

 

Atlanta = Seattle

Tampa Bay = Arizona

Carolina > L.A. Rams

New Orleans > San Francisco

 

Notice the lack of "<"

 

It also doesn't help that we have given Miami new confidence after they swept us last season.

 

I also worry a bit about any downgrade in our offense just due to the system change. I know we have some pretty good pieces (when healthy) and an above average o-line. Just have to make sure that the system is still one they can run with success. Don't want a situation like when Rex came in and changed everything for the worse on defense.

 

Yeah but it tends to equal out too. Even if we beat one or two of those good teams on paper (like the Cardinals and Pats last year), there is also a good chance we lose a couple that we thought we should have won (Ravens and Jets).

 

Of course the schedule can be factored in even if only on paper. Example, what if we had a theoretical schedule that switch the Patsx2 out with the Browns x2? That would make a huge difference. Same thing can happen year to year depending on the division you are slated to play.

agreed. at this point, i always consider the pats as 2 losses a year.

Edited May 22, 2017 by teef

[Chandler#81]

I'm encouraged as well, OP, while baring the scars of 17 seasons of garbage. As for who we'll face this season, we weren't supposed to beat Palmer & the Cardinals nor the Rams in LA. We weren't supposed to beat Cinci on the road and NE* was undefeated w/o TommyBoy when we played there. We WERE expected to beat the Jets twice and at least split w/ Miami.. In the previous couple seasons, we beat Baltimore away, Carolina, Minesota and Green Bay, among others. In short, we've been up & down though the talent has been accruing to compete with everybody. Will better guidance from the coaching staff bring consistent performances?

 

Why not buy into it?

[Bills757]

 

.......McD may be unproven, but Wrecks was ALLEGEDLY proven which turned out to be the biggest heist since the Great Train Robbery.....

The only thing that I felt Rex was proven at doing was running his mouth. He was tops in the league at all bark, no bite.

 

I just didn't see how someone would entrust their franchise to a guy like Rex. What has he accomplished that would make someone believe he's worthy of coaching their NFL team? I just don't see it. The biggest reason he's had the opportunities is because he's Buddy Ryan's son, period.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

nor the Rams in LA.

 

We absolutely were supposed to beat the Rams on paper. That was no upset.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Reason for optimism; they clearly aren't sticking to the same old recipe. If the last few iterations of changes were facelifts, this has been a heart transplant and lobotomy.

 

Reasons for cynicism; it always hurts to be a bills fan.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

The only thing that I felt Rex was proven at doing was running his mouth. He was tops in the league at all bark, no bite.

 

I just didn't see how someone would entrust their franchise to a guy like Rex. What has he accomplished that would make someone believe he's worthy of coaching their NFL team? I just don't see it. The biggest reason he's had the opportunities is because he's Buddy Ryan's son, period.

 

....he was no different than his old man.....Buddy's claim to fame was the 46 with the '85 SB Bears and punching out Gilbride.......he sucked as a HC just like his kid......hell he even fought with Ditka.......

[Heathcliff]

But we hired back 3 of the 17. That equates to 14. Since this is a positive/optimistic thread, 14 = number of wins?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

But we hired back 3 of the 17. That equates to 14. Since this is a positive/optimistic thread, 14 = number of wins?

...OR....17 scouts initially gone..AND....maybe the 17 year drought as well ??.....................

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

If we get more than 6 wins this year I will be truly amazed. I'm going to the Raiders game this year just to see EJ one more time. If Carr goes down and EJ comes in I guarantee a Bills victory, so maybe 7 wins.

[wilcoam]

Why I'm optimistic.

Offense - Sammy is healthy, we've upgraded at RT and FB

Defense - We have 3 highly rated college rookies drafted in the first two rounds, Ragland could be a game changer vs the run

Coaching - Sean seems to have the right stuff

Media - Nobody is picking us to compete for a WC, so we are flying under the radar

Why I'm pessimistic.

Offense - New run scheme may take a quarter season or longer to get right

Defense - The back 7 scares me, new scheme, 4 new starters, might also be a a period of adjustment

Coaching - Sean is a rookie, he will undoubtedly make rookie mistakes, then again nothing could be worse than Rex's mistakes

Media - Is Las vegas ever that wrong? If not gonna be a long season..

jc

[Thurman#1]

The upgrade I feel we received in coaching.

There's a big reason why though.

In 2016, the Bills lost 6 of 9 games by 7 points or less, including 6 games by 6 points or less.

Throw in a week 17 Jet game we basically lost on purpose, that's 8 losses and 6 were by more less 1 score...

@Sea VsMia @Mia @Bal VsNYJ

All were veryyyyy winnable games.

Good coaching and a better system over the chaotic one Rex had , and you can easily turn 3 of those into W's.

That's 10 Wins.

 

No crazy analyitics, just some facts, proving the Bills were an extremely competitive team and if you upgrade the coaching on a team that is close, it can go a long way in producing a competitive football team.

 

I believe we massively upgraded. This group needed more discipline and accountability. McD and Co. bring that, as well as a extremely high football i.q..

 

10 Wins is very attainable, stop listening to the chronic negative fan, that seems to prefer the negativity, and look at facts and legit bright spots, that show this team has the potential to be competitors immediately

 

Edit- The Bills won only 2 of 7 games by 7 or less points. 6 games by less than 6 points..

 

 

The whole thing about "we lost x games by less than x points" is a red herring. It's just the bell curve in action. Most NFL games are won or lost by seven or less points. It's not a point of honor to lose by relatively little. It just means you lost. That's all. You can go to nearly every team in the league nearly every year and they can say the same thing.

[jeffismagic]

 

 

The whole thing about "we lost x games by less than x points" is a red herring. It's just the bell curve in action. Most NFL games are won or lost by seven or less points. It's not a point of honor to lose by relatively little. It just means you lost. That's all. You can go to nearly every team in the league nearly every year and they can say the same thing.

 

Cleveland Browns lost a lot of close games last year. The NFL has a lot of games that get decided in the final few minutes. Buffalo still does not have a QB that can throw when they have to throw during this critical time so I expect similar losses late.

[NorthBuffaloKid]

 

Cleveland Browns lost a lot of close games last year. The NFL has a lot of games that get decided in the final few minutes. Buffalo still does not have a QB that can throw when they have to throw during this critical time so I expect similar losses late.

It's about the play calling and time management.

 

Rex's teams never excelled at that

[jeffismagic]

It's about the play calling and time management.

 

Rex's teams never excelled at that

 

2 minute drills it is very little about the play calling. You have to be able to pass the ball when the other team KNOWS you are throwing. Tyrod struggles at the end of the game or in two minute drills. The reason is Tyrod is not a very good passer. In order for him to succeed he needs to be protected by a strong running game but the end of a game is where that crutch gets taken away and the results are not pretty.

[Chandler#81]

 

We absolutely were supposed to beat the Rams on paper. That was no upset.

 

By the time we played them, yes, they were in a tailspin. But at this time last year, they were an up & comer with a great DLine. This is to the point of the thread. We really don't know in the off season what teams will be dynamic and who will flop -with just a couple exceptions..