This is not a rebuild, folks...

[Thurman#1]

Explain to me the cap ramifications of letting Tyrod go after this season.... someone....

 

- I can see this being Kyle's last season, so there should be at least 5-6 million that we won't be spending out of our projected $30m in available cap space...

 

- if we can be free and clear from Tyrod after this season, that puts us at $48m available cap space

 

- I think Groy has proven to be a suitable replacement for Wood, so that may keep us from spending there...

 

I'm excited about the coming years for sure

 

 

We're still really constricted on the cap next year. Right now we've got only 20 guys earning over $1 mill in base salary next year. That's because we don't have a lot of talent signed yet. Sammy, for instance, isn't signed for next year. They might easily sign Kyle for another contract if he's playing well.

 

And they'll need to re-sign some guys or bring in new ones. At DL for example, next year they only have six guys under contract right now: Dareus and Lawson, and then Ryan Davis, Adolphus Washington, Marquavious Lewis and Nigel Williams.

 

They're really doing a great job getting themselves headed in the right direction with cap management, but the last regime's cap largesse will take another year or so to straighten out.

 

As for Tyrod, if they let him go before the season he would count $8.64 mill against the cap, all dead money.

 

If they kept Tyrod instead, he will count $18.08 mill against the cap, $10 mill in salary, $6 mill in a bonus he will receive in March and $2.08 mill in amortized signing bonus.

 

So if they cut him they would save nearly $10 mill immediately on the cap.

 

 

Lets assume the Bills win 6 to 8 games this season.... Why would they release Tyrod after next season and regress even more in 2018?

 

McDermott and company would be close to ending a quick tenure in Buffalo if that's the plan...

 

People seem obsessed with cap room. Who !@#$ing cares about the cap when you release/let good players walk to get that cap room?

 

I agree this is probably the last year here for Kyle and Wood. But Tyrod will be here for at least the 2018 season.

 

 

They could easily do that. Easily. Particularly if after having worked with him they decide he's close to his ceiling and his ceiling isn't high enough to give them any likelihood of bringing a title here with him at QB. Dunno if they'll decide that, but they could.

 

As for whether we would regress in 2018 without him, there's no way to say that since we don't know who will be on the roster next year or how much improved the guys we have now will be.

 

And yeah people seem obsessed with cap room. It's absolutely crucial. Guys get cut because of a lack of it all the time. The only thing that would not make sense is to pretend cap room is not hugely important.

 

Tyrod could very very easily be cut before the 2018 season. That's how the contract is structured. Doesn't mean he will be cut, but it's structured that way for a reason and the reason is that if they decide they don't want him the cap ramifications won't make it hard to cut him.

 

 

 

 

Yes. Regress even more.

 

Who's playing QB with Tyrod gone?

 

 

A different QB. That's pretty much all that needs to be said when you're talking about 2018. Someone else. The one they draft in 2018, maybe or Peterman if he improves. Those would be the best guesses if Tyrod is gone.

 

Which could happen. Or not. But both are very possible.

Edited May 16, 2017 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

 

So we have this great roster but coaching was holding us back? Then why were all the scouts and Doug Whaley fired then?

Because McDermott wanted his own guy. That's the truth.

[jeffismagic]

Because McDermott wanted his own guy. That's the truth.

 

Yes, I know. But you are one of the few people who seem to grasp this. Pegulas didn't decide to fire Whaley and the scouts. Sean was hired and demanded total power.

 

But with great power comes great responsibility. Rex and Rob Ryan were considered laughing jokes for finishing .500. So Sean and his Beane Buddy MUST hit 9 wins.

[GunnerBill]

 

Yes, I know. But you are one of the few people who seem to grasp this. Pegulas didn't decide to fire Whaley and the scouts. Sean was hired and demanded total power.

 

But with great power comes great responsibility. Rex and Rob Ryan were considered laughing jokes for finishing .500. So Sean and his Beane Buddy MUST hit 9 wins.

 

I don't think they must hit 9 wins right away. I think the point was the we were never going beyond 8 wins with Rex. Rex has coached in the league every year since 2009 and hasn't won more than 8 games since 2010 - we knew what he was and it wasn't ever going to be good enough. McDermott and Beane's job is to build a perennial contender in Buffalo, but it might not happen year 1 and I genuinely don't think it has to. What we have to see year 1 is a coherent, cohesive plan both off the field and on it. If we see that but it only results in 6 wins I will not be angry with that and I will have hope of a step forward in 2018.

[JohnC]

 

Yes, I know. But you are one of the few people who seem to grasp this. Pegulas didn't decide to fire Whaley and the scouts. Sean was hired and demanded total power.

 

But with great power comes great responsibility. Rex and Rob Ryan were considered laughing jokes for finishing .500. So Sean and his Beane Buddy MUST hit 9 wins.

You are off the mark with your contention that the new coach has a particular benchmark he has to meet or be in jeopardy. His stint is not going to be judged in comparison to the previous clown's stint. McDermott can expediently devise a roster that is capable of winning 8 games that in the longer run will hurt its future prospects. On the other hand he can build a roster with younger players that initially win 6 games but in the longer run will be the basis for a good team.

 

What's obvious to everyone is that the organization is going through a thorough remake. New GM, new assist. GM, new personnel man, new scouts and new coaching staff. This new construction isn't being done to continue on the same mediocre path of scratching by to attain respectability.

 

Don't get hung up on comparing the wrestling coach's immediate record to the previous corpulent coach's record. Rex's history was an embarrassing sideshow that has no bearing to what is now going on other than to learn what not to do. To argue whether this is a rebuild or not is a waste of time. What is apparent to me is that this project is not a quick task. It is going to take at least a few years before the outcome can be judged to be successful or not. The bottom line is don't focus so much on the immediate record because it is less important to how the roster is being reshaped.

[hondo in seattle]

 

I don't think they must hit 9 wins right away. I think the point was the we were never going beyond 8 wins with Rex. Rex has coached in the league every year since 2009 and hasn't won more than 8 games since 2010 - we knew what he was and it wasn't ever going to be good enough. McDermott and Beane's job is to build a perennial contender in Buffalo, but it might not happen year 1 and I genuinely don't think it has to. What we have to see year 1 is a coherent, cohesive plan both off the field and on it. If we see that but it only results in 6 wins I will not be angry with that and I will have hope of a step forward in 2018.

 

I think that's the interesting thing, GB: Rex was not a good head coach. And yet he went 7-8 last year. So the roster couldn't have been horrible if a bad coach can tickle .500.

 

Our biggest roster losses (Gilmore, Woods) were replaced by high draft picks. This year's roster is comparable to 2016's roster. If McD has truly assembled a better coaching staff and is a better leader & coach than Rex, shouldn't we win 8 or more games this year?

[BringBackOrton]

 

I think that's the interesting thing, GB: Rex was not a good head coach. And yet he went 7-8 last year. So the roster couldn't have been horrible if a bad coach can tickle .500.

 

Our biggest roster losses (Gilmore, Woods) were replaced by high draft picks. This year's roster is comparable to 2016's roster. If McD has truly assembled a better coaching staff and is a better leader & coach than Rex, shouldn't we win 8 or more games this year?

Zay may be as good as Woods but he could not be. I don't think White will be as good as Gilmore. Lorax may come back to earth, our LBers have gotten worse, etc.

 

I don't see this roster, especially on the defensive side, maintaining talent level. I see it losing talent quicker than it can replace. I'm hopeful that the defense improves due to coaching, but I think we've been a worse team every year since 2014. This is the worst Bills team since 2012, IMO.

[GunnerBill]

 

I think that's the interesting thing, GB: Rex was not a good head coach. And yet he went 7-8 last year. So the roster couldn't have been horrible if a bad coach can tickle .500.

 

Our biggest roster losses (Gilmore, Woods) were replaced by high draft picks. This year's roster is comparable to 2016's roster. If McD has truly assembled a better coaching staff and is a better leader & coach than Rex, shouldn't we win 8 or more games this year?

 

Gilmore to me is a major loss. I think he was one of the best players on the team. I like Tre'Davious but would be surprised if he is a Gilmore equivalent straight off the bat. Then after that.... think we have some depth holes, and will need to see how we come out of camp with those addressed and think the schedule is tougher. The AFC West is a division the Bills could easily go 0-4 against and that means you likely need to go 10-2 the rest of the way to make the play offs. Again, things might not in fact play out like that and those teams might be worse than expected but at the moment I am not going to set McDermott and co an arbitrary win target based on Rex's 2016. Could I see us 8-8 again? Sure... I think 6-8 wins is the likely range. If they do better than that I will be delighted.

[BringBackOrton]

It's not simply because Tyrod is better then any QB this team has had in a long time.

 

The overall roster I agree is worse, but Tyrod being a solid QB will make up for that.

 

Hard to say about the talent level on the defensive side of the ball. Losing Gilmore hurts despite people bashing him all last season.... But it really depends on how the rookies from last season progress or not.(Lawson, Ragland, Washington) and how quickly White can get going.

The 2015 team was undeniably less talented than the 2014 team and TT didn't win as many games to make up for it. Why would it be different now?

 

And the loss of talent from 2015-2016 meant that TT also couldn't win as many games. What makes you think he can "make up for it" when he's been on the Bills two years and hasn't?

Edited May 16, 2017 by jmc12290

[Shaw66]

 

 

 

First, agreed that this isn't a rebuild, and that 2010 really was.

 

If it were a rebuild now, we certainly wouldn't have invited Kyle Williams back, for instance, nor McCoy nor Lorenzo Alexander nor Incognito. When you're rebuilding, you jettison the older talent on your roster because you don't really care about this year and those guys won't be around by the time you get good. This isn't a rebuild, there's no question about it.

 

But saying that Stevie Johnson and Kelsay were our best players back then is just not reasonable. Kyle Williams was on the Bills and kicking butt. Jairus Byrd had 9 INTs and was a second-team All-Pro, not just Pro Bowl, but All-Pro. Poz was on that team and playing really well, and Freddy Jackson was earning 1433 yards from scrimmage and averaging 4.5 YPA, while Marshawn Lynch racked up 3.8 YPA behind the same line here.

 

Not that our roster then was as strong as today's group. It wasn't. But you said, "It was generally agreed last season that the Bills had one of the better rosters in the conference, and they still do," and I don't think too many people really thought that outside Bills fandom. I know I thought that roster wasn't going to take us to more than about 8 wins, maybe 9 if things fell well.

 

From what I remember, people thought we had strong areas such as the DL and 4/5 OLs and CB and RB and Sammy if he was healthy and Clay at TE, as well as weak areas such as both safeties and RT and QB and WR and questions at ILB.. Overall, mixed.

Good comments. Thanks. I agree with all of it. I have really incomplete memory of historic rosters and I didn't look back. But you got the point, which is that the Bills' roster was weaker back then and rebuilding was necessary.

 

As for how much talent the Bills have, there was one article last year and I believe more than one, that ranked the Bills roster near the top of the AFC. What those articles said is that the Bills have a huge question at quarterback, but comparing the other 21 spots across the conference it was hard to find teams that compared favorably. Now, in hindsight, it looks a little different. Oakland and Miami, for example probably were viewed by those writers before the season as weaker but probably weren't viewed that way at the end of the season. My point is only that I didn't make up that idea about the Bills' 2016 roster; it was in the national press.

 

Finally, where you say "overall mixed," I agree that was and is the right conclusion. But when you're comparing rosters across the conference or league, we all tend to forget that there are very few teams, if any, that can say anything better than "overall mixed." In the modern era, the only way you can be strong across all 22 positions is if you've had incredible success with recent drafts and undrafted free agents. They only way you can be strong across both sides of the ball is if you've gotten a lot really good players cheap. That happened to Seattle. If you look around the league, I think there always are one or two teams like that, where everything has fallen just right. However, those teams can't stay together, because free agency and the cap causes them to lose some their of talent and weak spots start showing up. So the fact that the Bills had some weak areas in their lineup last season is not inconsistent with the notion that they had one of the better lineups. That's because just about all teams have weak spots.

You are off the mark with your contention that the new coach has a particular benchmark he has to meet or be in jeopardy. His stint is not going to be judged in comparison to the previous clown's stint. McDermott can expediently devise a roster that is capable of winning 8 games that in the longer run will hurt its future prospects. On the other hand he can build a roster with younger players that initially win 6 games but in the longer run will be the basis for a good team.

 

What's obvious to everyone is that the organization is going through a thorough remake. New GM, new assist. GM, new personnel man, new scouts and new coaching staff. This new construction isn't being done to continue on the same mediocre path of scratching by to attain respectability.

 

Don't get hung up on comparing the wrestling coach's immediate record to the previous corpulent coach's record. Rex's history was an embarrassing sideshow that has no bearing to what is now going on other than to learn what not to do. To argue whether this is a rebuild or not is a waste of time. What is apparent to me is that this project is not a quick task. It is going to take at least a few years before the outcome can be judged to be successful or not. The bottom line is don't focus so much on the immediate record because it is less important to how the roster is being reshaped.

This is interesting. The roster isn't being rebuilt, but the football office is being rebuilt.

 

Gilmore to me is a major loss. I think he was one of the best players on the team. I like Tre'Davious but would be surprised if he is a Gilmore equivalent straight off the bat. Then after that.... think we have some depth holes, and will need to see how we come out of camp with those addressed and think the schedule is tougher. The AFC West is a division the Bills could easily go 0-4 against and that means you likely need to go 10-2 the rest of the way to make the play offs. Again, things might not in fact play out like that and those teams might be worse than expected but at the moment I am not going to set McDermott and co an arbitrary win target based on Rex's 2016. Could I see us 8-8 again? Sure... I think 6-8 wins is the likely range. If they do better than that I will be delighted.

I think whether Gilmore is a major loss is really an open question. Tre'Davious COULD be the answer, but I think the change in defensive backfield philosophy changes the skill set you need back there. Gilmore would have been less valuable in the zone that McDermott seems to like to play than in a defense that is playing a lot of tight man coverage. That is, if Gilmore had stayed, I think a lot of people would have thought he was having a bad year, because he wouldn't have been making plays that made him stand out.

 

Plus, it doesn't take long to make a splash in the league at corner. Darby was really quite good as a rookie, and White seems to have a similar skill set.

 

So I'm taking a wait and see approach at corner.

 

Frankly, I'm more worried that going away from man coverage will hurt. Certainly against the Pats. Brady kills zones.

[eball]

 

 

Frankly, I'm more worried that going away from man coverage will hurt. Certainly against the Pats. Brady kills zones.

 

What defense doesn't Brady kill? It's all about pressure and stopping the run. Easier said than done.

[JM2009]

The 2015 team was undeniably less talented than the 2014 team and TT didn't win as many games to make up for it. Why would it be different now?

 

And the loss of talent from 2015-2016 meant that TT also couldn't win as many games. What makes you think he can "make up for it" when he's been on the Bills two years and hasn't?

lol TT missed two games in 2015. That awful Jacksonville game would have been a W if he had played. There's your nine wins again. And nine wins happened in 2014 only because Brady didn't play the second half of that NE game.

The 2015 team was undeniably less talented than the 2014 team and TT didn't win as many games to make up for it. Why would it be different now?

 

And the loss of talent from 2015-2016 meant that TT also couldn't win as many games. What makes you think he can "make up for it" when he's been on the Bills two years and hasn't?

And again, he didn't play the last game against an awful Jets team that had given up. That would have been eight wins again. This roster was an 8-8 type team those three years.

[BuffaloHokie13]

lol TT missed two games in 2015. That awful Jacksonville game would have been a W if he had played. There's your nine wins again. And nine wins happened in 2014 only because Brady didn't play the second half of that NE game.

And again, he didn't play the last game against an awful Jets team that had given up. That would have been eight wins again. This roster was an 8-8 type team those three years.

I truly hate this sentiment. Brady didn't play the 2nd half of that game because he sucked in the 1st half. 8/16 for 80 yards, no TDs, and he got sacked. There is no reason to think that game goes differently if Brady continued to play.

[BringBackOrton]

lol TT missed two games in 2015. That awful Jacksonville game would have been a W if he had played. There's your nine wins again. And nine wins happened in 2014 only because Brady didn't play the second half of that NE game.

And again, he didn't play the last game against an awful Jets team that had given up. That would have been eight wins again. This roster was an 8-8 type team those three years.

And Kyle Orton missed 4 in 2015. Still went 9-7.

 

The game that Brady missed the second half doesn't count in 2014, but the game Brady didn't play at all in 2016 counts? Interesting.

 

Lots of "if if if" in this post. All I know is the record went 9-7, 8-8, 7-9. Let me know when TT starts "making up" for lost talent.

Edited May 16, 2017 by jmc12290

[Iron Maiden]

lol TT missed two games in 2015. That awful Jacksonville game would have been a W if he had played. There's your nine wins again. And nine wins happened in 2014 only because Brady didn't play the second half of that NE game.

And again, he didn't play the last game against an awful Jets team that had given up. That would have been eight wins again. This roster was an 8-8 type team those three years.

 

To be fair, if Brady plays the 1st game in NE, we end up at 7 wins even if TT plays the last game and wins....

[JM2009]

And Kyle Orton missed 4 in 2015. Still went 9-7.

 

The game that Brady missed the second half doesn't count in 2014, but the game Brady didn't play at all in 2016 counts? Interesting.

 

Lots of "if if if" in this post. All I know is the record went 9-7, 8-8, 7-9. Let me know when TT starts "making up" for lost talent.

Ha Ha. That last game in 2014 NE rested it's starters, esp. the second half. Gronk didn't play at all.They didn't need the game. The game in 2016, all the starters played except of course Brady. If he had played the Bills would have lost. They didn't rest starters.Orton went 7-5 and saved the season in 2014. Your infatuation of hate against TT is beyond being reasonable.

 

To be fair, if Brady plays the 1st game in NE, we end up at 7 wins even if TT plays the last game and wins....

Correct.

[BringBackOrton]

Ha Ha. That last game in 2014 NE rested it's starters, esp. the second half. Gronk didn't play at all.They didn't need the game. The game in 2016, all the starters played except of course Brady. If he had played the Bills would have lost. They didn't rest starters.Orton went 7-5 and saved the season in 2014. Your infatuation of hate against TT is beyond being reasonable.

It has nothing to do with TT, I just think it's categorically unfair to take wins away from past Bills teams when comparing the years. Especially when there's such a clear parallel in the current year.

 

If you want to say the 2014 Bills really went 8-8, it's unfair to say the 2016 Bills went anything higher than 7-9. IMO, of course.

 

You play the games on your schedule. TT and Orton shouldn't have forfeited because Brady wasn't out there. If circumstances were different, could the results have changed? Of course. Do I expect Orton and/or TT to not take the field in protest because they didn't play NE at full strength? No. All wins count.

[Guest NeckBeard]

Ha Ha. That last game in 2014 NE rested it's starters, esp. the second half. Gronk didn't play at all.They didn't need the game. The game in 2016, all the starters played except of course Brady. If he had played the Bills would have lost. They didn't rest starters.Orton went 7-5 and saved the season in 2014. Your infatuation of hate against TT is beyond being reasonable.

Correct.

 

The whole Orton saving the season thing is bunk. The team didn't make the playoffs, the HC bailed, and the organization was faced with both having to find another HC and QB for the following season. How did Orton save anything in that context?

 

As for the TT issue, I like him because he's decent, but still, I don't think he's the long term answer at the position.

[BringBackOrton]

 

The whole Orton saving the season thing is bunk. The team didn't make the playoffs, the HC bailed, and the organization was faced with both having to find another HC and QB for the following season. How did Orton save anything in that context?

 

As for the TT issue, I like him because he's decent, but still, I don't think he's the long term answer at the position.

If you know the future.

[Guest NeckBeard]

If you know the future.

 

What part of my response do you take issue?