What if Peterman is better than Mahomes??

[BillsFan4]

I don't think we can judge what McDermott will do on 4th down by what Rivera did in Carolina. I'd rather look at what McDermott has said and done himself. If you look at his defenses, McDermott has always played an aggressive defense, and I would be somewhat surprised if he didn't continue to do that in Buffalo.

 

 

Here's a few quotes on McDermott's defense in Carolina -

 

http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2017/03/what_nfc_coaches_said_about_buffalo_bills_coach_sean_mcdermott_and_his_defense.html

 

Kyle Shanahan - "Sean does a great job," Shanahan said. "They're always aggressive, they're always sound. You know they're going to attack. They're not going to sit on their heels. They're going to be going right at you. Sean does a good job even going against him when he was in Philly. He switches up his scheme a lot and he's always a tough guy to go against."

 

Pete Carroll - "They were really good," Carroll said. "They posed problems. Very aggressive, well-rounded, really good scheme. Good mix oriented, pressured well. It's a good group. I'm glad that we know it. We've played against him a lot, so I'm familiar with that."

 

Dirk Koetter - "..... He was always going to try to exploit your weaknesses. He did a great job of attacking your protections with his blitzes. Very, very sound defense. Rarely out of position....."

 

Here's what McDermott said himself -

 

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/03/28/sean-mcdermott-buffalo-bills-analytics-fourth-down/

 

Sean McDermott says his personality is aggressive when it comes to 4th down. "If we're going down we're going down guns blazing."

 

 

We won't really know anything until we see his head coaching style this coming season. So as of now it's all speculation. But looking his history as a DC and what he has said in his time as Bills HC, it leads me to believe that he will be aggressive. It's not like this is necessarily the mark of a great coach anyway. There are a lot more important things to being a head coach than whether or not he is aggressive or conservative.

[mannc]

 

Alex Smith was traded for 2 high picks. He wasn't scraps.

A. Smith was "another team's backup". The difference is that KC surrendered two second round picks for said backup and the Bills were able to get Tyrod without giving up anything--and Tyrod's cap hit was (and still is) far less than Smith's. Sound's like Rex was a "QB Magician"!

[Chandler#81]

 

Of course you don't. Most Bills fans argued with me that there was even such a thing. Elite QB play is not highly valued by the Bills team or many of its fans.

 

I see you recognize the pattern.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

if Peterman is better than Mahomes then Whaley is a genius

 

[mannc]

 

 

 

All the data suggests drafting a QB early in the first provides the best opportunity for finding a franchise QB.

 

 

 

 

Please share the data. In a league where Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been the dominant QBs for a decade or more, this seems to be more disinformation.

[yungmack]

 

 

 

 

How exasperating it is, to see anyone at all persuaded by such a misguided and unsupported claim. Once again:

1. At the time the decision is made, no one knows what Mahomes will become.

2. There is substantial empirical evidence pertaining to recent 1st-round QBs indicating that they are unlikely to turn out to be any good. Let alone great. Let alone a "franchise" QB.

3. There is substantial empirical evidence indicating that trading back is beneficial and that even the most objective trade charts currently overestimate the value of higher picks compared to lower ones.

4. KC offered Buffalo a substantial amount on the dollar, even according to those charts which overestimate the value of the higher pick.

5. Whatever Mahomes turns out to be in KC is certainly not exactly the same as what he would have become in Buffalo.

So what can we conclude from the above?

(1) - The decision made sense given the information available at the time it was made.

(2) - There may, in hindsight, have been a better course of action available.

(3) - (2) is irrelevant to (1).

 

Excellent post.

[John from Riverside]

if Peterman is better than Mahomes then Whaley is a genius

 

 

It will be interesting to see how it plays out

 

Both guys might be hidden on their benches for a while

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

It will be interesting to see how it plays out

 

Both guys might be hidden on their benches for a while

I know. I thought I'd throw that out there for the fun of it.

[blacklabel]

Mahomes is an odd fit for an Andy Reid style offense. For it to work out successfully there I think they're going to need to come up with a compromise between the style of offense Reid likes to play along with the style of football Mahomes is naturally gifted at. Reid has Smith running that West Coast stuff with the short/quick passes and I'm sure Mahomes can be taught to do that but if that's all you're going to have him do, it's a complete waste of his natural talents. I would hope that along with the typical WCO stuff, they draw up some things that let the kid showcase his arm and sling it around somewhat. He provides a dimension that Alex Smith doesn't have, use it.

[Heitz]

Please share the data. In a league where Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been the dominant QBs for a decade or more, this seems to be more disinformation.

 

Here are QBs drafted in R1 and R2 from 2004 - 2016.

 

http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/nfl-draft-how-these-52-qbs-have-done-1.2829033

 

Some big names on that list, but seems like far fewer "Franchise guys" that not!

 

 

And this article from '15:

 

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2015/04/success_for_quarterbacks_picke.html

 

"Success for quarterbacks picked in NFL Draft first round? Less than 50-50, even for highest picks"

 

 

And those are just two articles from a quick Google search. Naturally the person you're arguing with isn't going to give you actual facts, he thinks his opinion IS fact...

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Drafting a quarterback is really a crap shoot. Just because a team trades up to get you, doesn't mean you will pan out. Who is a better quarterback Jared Goff or Dak Prescott? Wouldn't it be funny if Mahomes is a bust and Peterman is the next Zak Prerscott. LOL The Bills are due to get some luck.

I'm hoping for the next Brady.

 

Mahomes will probably be a bust along with Peterman. If you could combine the two we would be all set.

Mahomes is an odd fit for an Andy Reid style offense. For it to work out successfully there I think they're going to need to come up with a compromise between the style of offense Reid likes to play along with the style of football Mahomes is naturally gifted at. Reid has Smith running that West Coast stuff with the short/quick passes and I'm sure Mahomes can be taught to do that but if that's all you're going to have him do, it's a complete waste of his natural talents. I would hope that along with the typical WCO stuff, they draw up some things that let the kid showcase his arm and sling it around somewhat. He provides a dimension that Alex Smith doesn't have, use it.

I'm hoping Smith and mahomes go on IR and we get the top pick.

[jeffismagic]

 

Here are QBs drafted in R1 and R2 from 2004 - 2016.

 

http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/nfl-draft-how-these-52-qbs-have-done-1.2829033

 

Some big names on that list, but seems like far fewer "Franchise guys" that not!

 

 

And this article from '15:

 

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2015/04/success_for_quarterbacks_picke.html

 

"Success for quarterbacks picked in NFL Draft first round? Less than 50-50, even for highest picks"

 

 

And those are just two articles from a quick Google search. Naturally the person you're arguing with isn't going to give you actual facts, he thinks his opinion IS fact...

 

Please share your drafting QB strategy. I would love to hear it.

 

The fact is that there are 32 NFL teams and many of them need a QB. This idea that you don't draft a QB high because the guy might bust is the mentality of a loser. Then again the Bills have created that losing culture so it is no surprise that many fans buy into it.

Edited May 11, 2017 by jeffismagic

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

Please share your drafting QB strategy. I would love to hear it.

 

The fact is that there are 32 NFL teams and many of them need a QB. This idea that you don't draft a QB high because the guy might bust is the mentality of a loser. Then again the Bills have created that losing culture so it is no surprise that many fans buy into it.

 

 

so you believe many fans bought in to a losing culture?

 

 

you must of bought in to it as I assume, not based on your hate for the franchise or your favoritism for other teams players, you are still here, following the bills?

 

 

your feelings were really hurt when they didn't draft that boy in your avatar.

Edited May 11, 2017 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[jeffismagic]

 

 

so you believe many fans bought in to a losing culture?

 

 

you must of bought in to it as I assume, not based on your hate for the franchise or your favoritism for other teams players, you are still here, following the bills?

 

 

your feelings were really hurt when they didn't draft that boy in your avatar.

 

Yes, many fans have accepted losing as their lot in life. I would prefer to see the Bills hire the best coach, GM, acquire the best QB and stop being a joke.

 

Asking for more is what many real fans do. Try it some time. Look at the latest commercial with Sean that Russ Brandon created. Brandon really thinks Bills fans are suckers.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

Yes, many fans have accepted losing as their lot in life. I would prefer to see the Bills hire the best coach, GM, acquire the best QB and stop being a joke.

 

Asking for more is what many real fans do. Try it some time. Look at the latest commercial with Sean that Russ Brandon created. Brandon really thinks Bills fans are suckers.

 

I don't know what fans you're talking about.

 

 

real fans?

 

 

you ever heard of the deep end...?

Edited May 11, 2017 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[jeffismagic]

 

I don't know what fans you're talking about.

 

 

real fans?

 

 

you ever heard of the deep end...?

 

It's funny but message boards like this naturally weed out the people who are disappointed or have lost hope. I know a lot of people who think of me as a crazy silver liner.

[TheFunPolice]

Then we rejoice!

 

Unless Mahomes is awful and Peterman is just bad. Then we go "meh" and move on with our day.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...so if Peterman shows he can process/read the entire field in time allotted, recognize defenses and find guys open (WR's or TE's) without them having a GPS unit taped to their respective azzes, giving up on routes because they know they won't see the rock (HINT), what the hell is the problem?.....passing component MUST be a viable part of this offense and if not (has NOT been), 7-9. 8-8.7-9.8-8 await.....stay tuned.........

[17 Josh Allen]

I could not have said it better my self. The fans that supported the move out of the 10 draft position and not drafting Mahomes will have to live with this the rest of the posting careers on Two Bills Drive. I will call them out every chance I get. Mahomes was the next great QB and the Bills and these loser fans that support this crap of continually drafting position players over QB's will forever be labeled. I for one will not stand for it and I will be vocal every step of the way.

 

 

Please share your drafting QB strategy. I would love to hear it.

 

The fact is that there are 32 NFL teams and many of them need a QB. This idea that you don't draft a QB high because the guy might bust is the mentality of a loser. Then again the Bills have created that losing culture so it is no surprise that many fans buy into it.

[oldmanfan]

I could not have said it better my self. The fans that supported the move out of the 10 draft position and not drafting Mahomes will have to live with this the rest of the posting careers on Two Bills Drive. I will call them out every chance I get. Mahomes was the next great QB and the Bills and these loser fans that support this crap of continually drafting position players over QB's will forever be labeled. I for one will not stand for it and I will be vocal every step of the way.

 

 

I guess the only response would be for you to grow up