What if Peterman is better than Mahomes??

[jeffismagic]

 

 

 

 

How exasperating it is, to see anyone at all persuaded by such a misguided and unsupported claim. Once again:

1. At the time the decision is made, no one knows what Mahomes will become.

2. There is substantial empirical evidence pertaining to recent 1st-round QBs indicating that they are unlikely to turn out to be any good. Let alone great. Let alone a "franchise" QB.

3. There is substantial empirical evidence indicating that trading back is beneficial and that even the most objective trade charts currently overestimate the value of higher picks compared to lower ones.

4. KC offered Buffalo a substantial amount on the dollar, even according to those charts which overestimate the value of the higher pick.

5. Whatever Mahomes turns out to be in KC is certainly not exactly the same as what he would have become in Buffalo.

So what can we conclude from the above?

(1) - The decision made sense given the information available at the time it was made.

(2) - There may, in hindsight, have been a better course of action available.

(3) - (2) is irrelevant to (1).

 

 

The brightest QB minds in the NFL all were circling back to one player. Sean McDermott is not in that QB club. He is the one who decided to bring back Tyrod Taylor for another spin because he sold the Pegulas and Russ Brandon on his ability to win now.

 

All the data suggests drafting a QB early in the first provides the best opportunity for finding a franchise QB.

 

Any team that decides it can win with other team's scraps and leftovers will find their coach fired.

 

Rex was Tyrod's first victim. Sean will be the next if he insists on this path.

[oldmanfan]

 

The brightest QB minds in the NFL all were circling back to one player. Sean McDermott is not in that QB club. He is the one who decided to bring back Tyrod Taylor for another spin because he sold the Pegulas and Russ Brandon on his ability to win now.

 

All the data suggests drafting a QB early in the first provides the best opportunity for finding a franchise QB.

 

Any team that decides it can win with other team's scraps and leftovers will find their coach fired.

 

Rex was Tyrod's first victim. Sean will be the next if he insists on this path.

 

 

Yet the team that drafted Mahomes has a HC that has not been fired and they have a Qb that is another team's scarps/leftover. And not all were circling back to one player since some were looking at Watson.

 

Your post makes no sense.

[jeffismagic]

 

 

The brightest QB minds in the NFL all were circling back to one player. Sean McDermott is not in that QB club. He is the one who decided to bring back Tyrod Taylor for another spin because he sold the Pegulas and Russ Brandon on his ability to win now.

 

All the data suggests drafting a QB early in the first provides the best opportunity for finding a franchise QB.

 

Any team that decides it can win with other team's scraps and leftovers will find their coach fired.

 

Rex was Tyrod's first victim. Sean will be the next if he insists on this path.

 

 

Yet the team that drafted Mahomes has a HC that has not been fired and they have a Qb that is another team's scarps/leftover. And not all were circling back to one player since some were looking at Watson.

 

Your post makes no sense.

 

 

Alex Smith was traded for 2 high picks. He wasn't scraps.

[oldmanfan]

 

Alex Smith was traded for 2 high picks. He wasn't scraps.

Unless it would fit your narrative. Then you'd say he was. We all get your schtick.

[C.Biscuit97]

I don't think Alex Smith is terrible. I think the Chiefs playbook is terrible

This is the same logic that some Bills fans with Tyrod. Do people honestly think coaches are in practice with Smith and Taylor & are holding them back? You honestly think if Smith and Taylor were like Rodgers or Brady they would have the same playbook?

 

They are both flawed qbs who have limitations. Reid has maximized Alex Smith's entire ability. And Mahomes is in a great situation to learn from a great qb teacher and very smart vet qb. Basically, they are doing the exact opposite of what the Bills did with EJ.

 

The brightest QB minds in the NFL all were circling back to one player. Sean McDermott is not in that QB club. He is the one who decided to bring back Tyrod Taylor for another spin because he sold the Pegulas and Russ Brandon on his ability to win now.

 

All the data suggests drafting a QB early in the first provides the best opportunity for finding a franchise QB.

 

Any team that decides it can win with other team's scraps and leftovers will find their coach fired.

 

Rex was Tyrod's first victim. Sean will be the next if he insists on this path.

SMD is a defensive coach who is conservative by nature. Taylor is a type of qb a defensive coach wants because he is safe.

 

IMO, you don't become great by being safe. I fear that SMD is going to be Jauron and Marrone like as a coach. That said, it's an improvement over Rex.

[BringBackOrton]

 

 

 

 

How exasperating it is, to see anyone at all persuaded by such a misguided and unsupported claim. Once again:

 

1. At the time the decision is made, no one knows what Mahomes will become.

2. There is substantial empirical evidence pertaining to recent 1st-round QBs indicating that they are unlikely to turn out to be any good. Let alone great. Let alone a "franchise" QB.

3. There is substantial empirical evidence indicating that trading back is beneficial and that even the most objective trade charts currently overestimate the value of higher picks compared to lower ones.

4. KC offered Buffalo a substantial amount on the dollar, even according to those charts which overestimate the value of the higher pick.

5. Whatever Mahomes turns out to be in KC is certainly not exactly the same as what he would have become in Buffalo.

 

So what can we conclude from the above?

 

(1) - The decision made sense given the information available at the time it was made.

(2) - There may, in hindsight, have been a better course of action available.

(3) - (2) is irrelevant to (1).

I think the problem most folks are having with this explanatation is that this could apply every time there's a first round QB available at your pick, at least partially.

[Yav]

I have a son who went to FSU back in the EJ days, so I watched a lot of him in person and on TV. I saw nothing worthy of a 1st round pick, but he seems to be a great person. I asked my son (himself a HS QB, though not big time he was POY for his conference and honorable mention All State in FL), and his comment on Mahomes was something like "amazing arm with the mechanics of a high schooler". Relax Jeff, he's not a pro scout, but I just found that interesting since I saw almost nothing of the guy.

 

Mean by me? I think "mean" is beating people over the head agaian, and again, and again, and again with he same stuff. I get it, we heard your opinion. Relentless Crusading can be tiring.

I'm not a fan. He's never been under center and often throws off balance. Also watching him chuck the ball downfield it seems to come down on the backside instead of front side. Sure he has a strong arm but a strong arm alone doesn't get the job done in the NFL.

 

Only time will tell with any of the players selected. I actually like Peterman and think he can develop into a very good player.

[manbeast]

 

I am not giving him credit. Sports journalists and people who understand the NFL have given him credit. If you feel your opinion matters more, then so be it.

 

Vick came out of prison and no one expected much for a guy out of the league. Reid had him looking better than he did BEFORE prison! The Vick stuff was incredible QB coach

I finally have a plan that will work to make Tyrod a better passer. We have to send him to prison and when he gets out we have a Reid disciple to work with him. Then we have our passing QB.

[Yav]

I finally have a plan that will work to make Tyrod a better passer. We have to send him to prison and when he gets out we have a Reid disciple to work with him. Then we have our passing QB.

Interesting. McD is a Reid disciple and he's going to be around for a few years so we are 1/2 way there.

 

On a serious note I'm looking forward to seeing what Dennison can do with the Bills QBs.

[jeffismagic]

Interesting. McD is a Reid disciple and he's going to be around for a few years so we are 1/2 way there.

 

On a serious note I'm looking forward to seeing what Dennison can do with the Bills QBs.

 

McDermott worked for Reid. I don't consider them similar as coaches. Andy is offense and Sean is defense. Reid is a brilliant X and O's coach as well as a QB guru.

 

I see Leslie Frazier and Ron Rivera as the true tree McDermott resides on.

[Captain Murica]

It's an interesting point. Fitz will lose you a game. But he's definitely won more games on his own than Tyrod.

 

I'd also argue that Tyrod has the better supporting cast than when Fitz was here. But they and guys like Alex Smith are in the same mold. Guys good enough to start but ultimately leave you wanting more. Peterman sounds like a guy that might be like that too if he is good to start in the NFL.

I would argue that fitz had a better supporting cast in New Jersey than Tyrod has in buffalo. Especially in 2015 when the Jests won 10 games.

[Yav]

I would argue that fitz had a better supporting cast in New Jersey than Tyrod has in buffalo. Especially in 2015 when the Jests won 10 games.

At the very least better head coaching and that's not saying much.

[BillsFan4]

This is the same logic that some Bills fans with Tyrod. Do people honestly think coaches are in practice with Smith and Taylor & are holding them back? You honestly think if Smith and Taylor were like Rodgers or Brady they would have the same playbook?

They are both flawed qbs who have limitations. Reid has maximized Alex Smith's entire ability. And Mahomes is in a great situation to learn from a great qb teacher and very smart vet qb. Basically, they are doing the exact opposite of what the Bills did with EJ.

 

SMD is a defensive coach who is conservative by nature. Taylor is a type of qb a defensive coach wants because he is safe.

IMO, you don't become great by being safe. I fear that SMD is going to be Jauron and Marrone like as a coach. That said, it's an improvement over Rex.

I'm not so sure !cDermott is conservative. I guess we won't know for sure until we see him actually coach a game as HC...

 

But, he learned his defensive system from Jim Johnson, and ran a very aggressive Jim Johnson style defense in Carolina.

 

He also said himself that he is aggressive by nature and will be aggressive as a coach. Said that's what players like, they want to go for the win.

 

Like I said, time will tell.

McDermott worked for Reid. I don't consider them similar as coaches. Andy is offense and Sean is defense. Reid is a brilliant X and O's coach as well as a QB guru.

 

I see Leslie Frazier and Ron Rivera as the true tree McDermott resides on.

Nope. Jim Johnson.

[jeffismagic]

I'm not so sure !cDermott is conservative. I guess we won't know for sure until we see him actually coach a game as HC...

 

But, he learned his defensive system from Jim Johnson, and ran a very aggressive Jim Johnson style defense in Carolina.

 

He also said himself that he is aggressive by nature and will be aggressive as a coach. Said that's what players like, they want to go for the win.

 

Like I said, time will tell.

 

Nope. Jim Johnson.

 

Yes, I think Leslie Frazier, Ron Rivera, and Sean McDermott are all on a branch from the Jim Johnson tree.

 

Jim Johnson was an innovative, attacking the QB coordinator.

 

And all of these guys started out that way.

 

But when these guys got their own chances:

 

Leslie Frazier favored a Tampa 2, bend but don't break simple scheme. He also liked to punt.

 

Ron Rivera handed his defense over to Sean but is known by fans as a VERY conservative head coach who punts the ball a lot.

 

Sean is the next one to get a chance. We shall see but his scheme in Carolina has become more similar to Frazier's Tampa 2 than what he originally was learning with Jim Johnson. He also selected Frazier to run his D, an ominous sign.

[HappyDays]

 

Alex Smith was traded for 2 high picks. He wasn't scraps.

Wow Andy Reid traded 2 high picks for Alex Smith and didn't bring in meaningful competition for 4 seasons. He is obviously a QB guru.

[BillsFan4]

Yes, I think Leslie Frazier, Ron Rivera, and Sean McDermott are all on a branch from the Jim Johnson tree.

 

Jim Johnson was an innovative, attacking the QB coordinator.

 

And all of these guys started out that way.

 

But when these guys got their own chances:

 

Leslie Frazier favored a Tampa 2, bend but don't break simple scheme. He also liked to punt.

 

Ron Rivera handed his defense over to Sean but is known by fans as a VERY conservative head coach who punts the ball a lot.

 

Sean is the next one to get a chance. We shall see but his scheme in Carolina has become more similar to Frazier's Tampa 2 than what he originally was learning with Jim Johnson. He also selected Frazier to run his D, an ominous sign.

We will see. There's really no way to know for sure until we see him coach.

 

But McDermott ran a much more aggressive Jim Johnson type scheme in Carolina and Philly than what Frazier ran out on his own.

It'll be interesting to see which way it goes with the 2 of them working together.

[C.Biscuit97]

I would argue that fitz had a better supporting cast in New Jersey than Tyrod has in buffalo. Especially in 2015 when the Jests won 10 games.

Yeah, I don't disagree. Winning 10 games, setting Jets records, and not making the playoffs sums Fitz' career. Just not quite good enough.

I'm not so sure !cDermott is conservative. I guess we won't know for sure until we see him actually coach a game as HC...

 

But, he learned his defensive system from Jim Johnson, and ran a very aggressive Jim Johnson style defense in Carolina.

 

He also said himself that he is aggressive by nature and will be aggressive as a coach. Said that's what players like, they want to go for the win.

 

Like I said, time will tell.

 

Nope. Jim Johnson.

You're right. It might be a stereotype but defensive cos he's seem more likely to punt on 4th and short & be run oriented, controlling the game clock.

 

Buddy Ryan was super aggressive on defense and then punched his OC for throwing the ball too much.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Yeah, I don't disagree. Winning 10 games, setting Jets records, and not making the playoffs sums Fitz' career. Just not quite good enough.

 

You're right. It might be a stereotype but defensive cos he's seem more likely to punt on 4th and short & be run oriented, controlling the game clock.

 

Buddy Ryan was super aggressive on defense and then punched his OC for throwing the ball too much.

Punt on 4th & short? He's been working under Riverboat Ron!

[jeffismagic]

Punt on 4th & short? He's been working under Riverboat Ron!

 

On fourth down, Rivera willingly gave the ball to back to the Broncos. Rivera, by choice, punted with two minutes left in a game -- a game in which the Panthers were trailing by two touchdowns. Rivera punted and the Broncos burned off half of the remaining time left, all but ending the game.

 

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/what-was-riverboat-ron-doing-punting-that-late-in-super-bowl-50/

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

On fourth down, Rivera willingly gave the ball to back to the Broncos. Rivera, by choice, punted with two minutes left in a game -- a game in which the Panthers were trailing by two touchdowns. Rivera punted and the Broncos burned off half of the remaining time left, all but ending the game.

 

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/what-was-riverboat-ron-doing-punting-that-late-in-super-bowl-50/

But Riverboat Ron!