Bills Decline 5th Year Option on Sammy Watkins

[Manther]

That's baloney. For what the Bills gave up and the talent Watkins has shown while healthy it's an easy decision. There is some risk to guaranteeing money to an athlete and this is part of it. You don't play hardball with your most talented guy because he has a reoccurring injury.

 

Jones fractures have always caused extended problems in athletes and led to second surgeries. This is not Byrd telling people his feet are sore. This is well documented.

 

Losing a year of leverage for what? If Sammy has a slow start due to the foot do you think he is signing here for less than that tag? No.

I get where folks are coming from by not picking up the option....but, disagree. The stance above is more where I lie/lay. I think the McD would have hopefully talked and explained things to Sammy.

 

But, not picking up the option, a suspect QB (that Sammy may thinks is costing him opportunity, success and a payday) and no playoffs may be souring Sammy (IMO our best player) too much.

 

This could be a very costly error....for what?

[Fan boy '92]

You don't jeapordize your most important and valuable asset. The team must have info that his foot simply won't heal or this is plain stupid.

[Bill_with_it]

Oh Lordy! How many times can you miss my point? I'm not arguing if Sammy should get the 5th year option (though I admit I'd do it, but that's NOT the point!). So, how much grief would McD get if Sammy went on to a great career elsewhere? It was a throw away comment way back when I first made it, but you just keep missing the point! This is very tiring.

 

I'm not willing to argue whether Sammy is worth it - with you.

 

DC Tom has a phrase that fits this situation.

Did you not read my response? Your making the assumption that hes not retained. So you are 100 percent giving up on Sammys ability to prove his foot is healthy and he produces up to his talent. Because he would get signed if his foot is healed and he produces up to his talent. Therefore in your hypothetical scenario Sammy will either not be healthy or not produce and therefore logically one can assume Mcdermoatt is safe from grief because Sammy didnt warrant keeping. Dont move the goal poasts anymore, read the response, think before typing.

Bottom line up front:

Sammy wont make it to another team if he produces and is healed.

If Sammy doesnt produce or isnt healed Mcdermott wont catch any grief for not retaining a player that doesnt produce or isnt healed.

Brush up on comprehension DC tom has a bot for this.

 

I have tried to explain it to you multiple different ways that Mcdermott would catch no heat yet you still think im talking about whether or not we should keep him.

1. Who allocates 8% of the cap fully guaranteed to a wr that averages 12 games 800 yds a season? Then mcdermott catches no heat

 

2. Why not make the WR earn his pay and if he doesnt show his body can withstand the rigors or he doesnt produce then Mcdermott catches no heat.

Edited May 3, 2017 by Bill_with_it

[Augie]

This isn't worth it. What if Sammy has a pretty good year, but with some ups and downs and maybe a missed game or two. Not worth the Franchise tag. Then he goes on to tear it up for the next decade! All Pro every year, which he's capable of. Stop telling me I didn't read the posts. Follow your own advice. I am NOT arguing the next 12 months. Long term.

 

I have never searched for the ignore function on this board, but I'm told it's an option. Congrats on being the first poster to make me wonder. (Though truthfully, maybe BuffaloBud420 may have caused me to wonder.)

[Fan in Chicago]

Why don't they just cut him now?

I actually did an options analysis on the various outcomes. It is in a spreadsheet and I wish i could cut and paste an image. But in short, I laid out the possibilities:

1. Extend him now

2. Pick up the option

 

For both of these, I made a sub-tree which had him playing all 16 games or less than that. To keep it simple, I assigned a value to him playing a game as a per-game salary

 

3. Option not picked up

 

This had multiple sub-trees. In addition to above, it had extend at end of this year, franchise tag him then have him walk etc,...

 

 

In an option analysis, you add up the probability weighted sub-trees to assign a value to each major option.

 

Doing it this way and playing with some probabilities, I came to the conclusion that it is in the best interest of the Bills to WAIT and not pull the trigger now. This is purely a financial exercise. A full blown analysis will require some Monte Carlo type modeling which I am not trained to do.

 

But, in essence, I will give the Bills the benefit of doubt and think they actually ran through this simulation. Which is what led them to the decision of not picking up the option. I actually support this decision.

 

Having said that and as an aside, I am getting convinced that McD is trending towards being the new Greggo.

[Bill_with_it]

This isn't worth it. What if Sammy has a pretty good year, but with some ups and downs and maybe a missed game or two. Not worth the Franchise tag. Then he goes on to tear it up for the next decade! All Pro every year, which he's capable of. Stop telling me I didn't read the posts. Follow your own advice. I am NOT arguing the next 12 months. Long term.

 

I have never searched for the ignore function on this board, but I'm told it's an option. Congrats on being the first poster to make me wonder. (Though truthfully, maybe BuffaloBud420 may have caused me to wonder.)

Cool story. So in your scenario let me get this right:

A. Sammy isnt healed or doesnt produce.

B. Bills dont retwin him.

C. Sammy goes on to do something he hasnt shown he is capable of doing two years in a row out of four years yet hes going to go on and literally have to do it every year to become all pro.

Yet you still refuse to read. You set up one of the most unrealistic scenarios that could literally ever take place regarding Watkins.

Its simple.

Sammy shows hes healed and produces he gets the franchise tag and a contract worked out prior to the deadline.

Sammy shows he isnt healed ir doesnt produce he will get a contract based off his performance no one at the end of year 4/5 will pay Sammy top wr money if he isnt healed or isnt producing.

 

If he is healed and is producing the Bills will retain him.

Its super simple yet you are making it sound like regardless if Watkins is healed or produces the Bills are going to release him and hes going to become a perennial all pro wide receiver. That scenario is truly ridiculous. You clearly have a bias against the recent decision to let Whaley go or the Pegulas. No one has any rational thought of the bills not retaining Sammy if hea healed and producing.

[Augie]

Cool story. So in your scenario let me get this right:

A. Sammy isnt healed or doesnt produce.

B. Bills dont retwin him.

C. Sammy goes on to do something he hasnt shown he is capable of doing two years in a row out of four years yet hes going to go on and literally have to do it every year to become all pro.

Yet you still refuse to read. You set up one of the most unrealistic scenarios that could literally ever take place regarding Watkins.

Its simple.

Sammy shows hes healed and produces he gets the franchise tag and a contract worked out prior to the deadline.

Sammy shows he isnt healed ir doesnt produce he will get a contract based off his performance no one at the end of year 4/5 will pay Sammy top wr money if he isnt healed or isnt producing.

If he is healed and is producing the Bills will retain him.

Its super simple yet you are making it sound like regardless if Watkins is healed or produces the Bills are going to release him and hes going to become a perennial all pro wide receiver. That scenario is truly ridiculous. You clearly have a bias against the recent decision to let Whaley go or the Pegulas. No one has any rational thought of the bills not retaining Sammy if hea healed and producing.

I didn't even read it. Pretty sure I never will (on purpose). Do you know the phrase that DC Tom is known for? You have missed the point 100% of the time.

[Bill_with_it]

I didn't even read it. Pretty sure I never will (on purpose). Do you know the phrase that DC Tom is known for? You have missed the point 100% of the time.

Good you havent read any of the posts you are being miserable because Whaley was fired and you dont agree with it. Why else would you state an unrealistic scenario that has 0.0000% chance of happening and trying to blame the HC for it? Your point was reworded 30 times for you and answered. Mcdermott wont get any grief.

 

If Sammy produces is healed he will be retained.

If Sammy doesnt no one will give grief to Mcdermot for wasting 8% of the teams cap and a roster spot for a player that isnt producing or isnt capable of playing 16 games. At least a smart person wont...

 

You post stupid things youll get grief for it. Or at least thats what Im being told..

Edited May 3, 2017 by Bill_with_it

[Nitro]

If Watkins is healthy and produces, resign or tag him. If he continues to be fragile and unable to play a unable to play a full season, let him test the FA market.

[Fan in Chicago]

If Watkins is healthy and produces, resign or tag him. If he continues to be fragile and unable to play a unable to play a full season, let him test the FA market.

which is essentially what the Bills are doing by not picking up his option.

[Augie]

Good you havent read any of the posts you are being miserable because Whaley was fired and you dont agree with it. Why else would you state an unrealistic scenario that has 0.0000% chance of happening and trying to blame the HC for it? Your point was reworded 30 times for you and answered. Mcdermott wont get any grief.

If Sammy produces is healed he will be retained.

If Sammy doesnt no one will give grief to Mcdermot for wasting 8% of the teams cap and a roster spot for a player that isnt producing or isnt capable of playing 16 games. At least a smart person wont...

You post stupid things youll get grief for it. Or at least thats what Im being told..

Scanned that.... I liked Whaley, but I'm not heartbroken. Not resentful. Life moves on. Hoping for the best from the new guys. If Sammy has a good to great year and we let him walk, then has All Pro all over him for a decade, you should know McD gets grief, but not as much as Whaley did. But then it would mean Whaley was right. I'm NOT arguing this contract like you are. And again, I find you tiring and not at all interesting. I had a question, you had an agenda.

 

I'm done here.

[Bill_with_it]

If Watkins is healthy and produces, resign or tag him. If he continues to be fragile and unable to play a unable to play a full season, let him test the FA market.

I haven't the slightest clue why it is so hard for people not to understand a post like this composed of two sentences of elementary level wording...

Scanned that.... I liked Whaley, but I'm not heartbroken. Not resentful. Life moves on. Hoping for the best from the new guys. If Sammy has a good to great year and we let him walk, then has All Pro all over him for a decade, you should know McD gets grief, but not as much as Whaley did. But then it would mean Whaley was right. I'm NOT arguing this contract like you are. And again, I find you tiring and not at all interesting. I had a question, you had an agenda.

 

I'm done here.

Agenda?

You are hypothetically laying blame to a HC that will never let your dreamland scenario unfold. Yet I have an agenda??

[Augie]

Good you havent read any of the posts you are being miserable because Whaley was fired and you dont agree with it. Why else would you state an unrealistic scenario that has 0.0000% chance of happening and trying to blame the HC for it? Your point was reworded 30 times for you and answered. Mcdermott wont get any grief.

If Sammy produces is healed he will be retained.

If Sammy doesnt no one will give grief to Mcdermot for wasting 8% of the teams cap and a roster spot for a player that isnt producing or isnt capable of playing 16 games. At least a smart person wont...

You post stupid things youll get grief for it. Or at least thats what Im being told..

Hey, I just realized you're the same guy who started the WR thread with a list of 10 jersey numbers, with no names. That reinforces my feelings. Are you starved for attention?

[Bill_with_it]

Hey, I just realized you're the same guy who started the WR thread with a list of 10 jersey numbers, with no names. That reinforces my feelings. Are you starved for attention?

No just tired of the crusading against Mcdermot for something he wont let happen.

[BillsFan4]

Smh. Sammy going to mail it in this year.

 

@john_wawrow

For what it's worth, Watkins is motivated by the the #Bills' decision to not pick up 5th-year option. He's on track to be ready for camp.

[Augie]

No just tired of the crusading against Mcdermot for something he wont let happen.

Who's crusading against McD? I wish the guy nothing but the best. He's the HC of my team! I want HIM in the HOF for all the SB's he wins us.

[Webster Guy]

 

@AdamSchefter

 

 

 

 

 

Sammy Watkins now in a great position. If he plays up to his capabilities, he will be one of the most sought-after free agents next winter.

Uh yeah until we tag him and then leverage that for a fair new contract.

[BillsFan4]

Why don't they just cut him now?

He's only making $6M this year. He is worth that. They want to see him actually perform consistently on the field before deciding to pay him $13.2M, double what he's making now. I believe that would take up roughly 1/3 or more of the available cap space the Bills have in 2018 (I've seen it as $32M at spotrack or $42M at overthecap).

 

Plus, they don't have a replacement for him right now, but that could potentially change by the start of next season. Or Sammy could prove by then that he is worth franchise tagging or signing to an extension...

 

Just because they didn't pick up his 5th year option doesn't mean that they are done with him and ready to move on right now, either.

 

McDermott seems intent on making everyone actually earn their spot, and I am all for that. Put up or shut up time...

 

To be clear, I love Sammy Watkins and I think he has all the potential in the world. But I'd like to see that potential translate to consistent performance on the field.

[Reed83HOF]

Watch Sammy leave and go to KC and tear it up with Mahomes...

[Augie]

Watch Sammy leave and go to KC and tear it up with Mahomes...

That was evil. Just sayin'.